Thursday, December 31, 2009

Ireland today

the going at both today´s Irish meetings at Punchestown and Tramore will be very heavy. Easily the most interesting event is the hurdle race at 14.45 CET at Punchestown. Hardy Eustace (Dessie Hughes/ Paddy Flood) is the class act here, having won the Champion Hurdle twice, but he is getting on in years, probably needs better ground and has to give weight away all round. Glencove Marina (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and German-bred Wild Passion (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) were both smart in younger years but are coming off very long breaks. The most valuable event here is the mares bumper at 16.45, which can go to Lonesome Dove (Charlie Swan/ Nina Carberry). At Tramore, Willie Mullins can continue his winning run with Drive on Regardless at 15.05 and Cru an hour later, both ridden by David Casey.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Palace Merano - Earth Magic - Sigma Lifestyle
2. Race: The Dew At Night - Whosaidso - Battlefront
3. Race: Glencove Marina - Hardy Eustace - Footy Facts
4. Race: Beroni - Farringdon - Bahrain Storm
5. Race: Tropical Island - Carnbridge - Bob Will Fix It
6. Race: Soldier Bay - Stir On The Sea - Pittoni
7. Race: Araucaria - Perfectly Composed - Lonesome Dove

Lingfield (a.w.) and Warwick (N.H.)

8 races at Lingfield this afternoon, but the first 7 are class 6 and thé first 4 for 2yo s. Clearly there are no better juveniles running at this time of year, but on what we have seen so far, Spice Fair (Mark Usher/ Lee Newnes) and Calculus Affair (Jeremy Noseda/ Shane Kelly) have good chances of taking the two divisions of the 2yo maiden at 13.30 CET and 14.00 respectively. The 7 furlongs handicap at 16.30 is the best race of the day, and seems to lie between the consistent top-weight Autumn Blades (Alan Bailey/ David Probert) and Poppanan (Simon Dow/ Tony Culhane), third here last time to the smart Imprimis Tagula (winner again since).
The quality on offer is not much better at Warwick, although there are some quite decent performers in the beginners chase at 14.20. Leo´s Lucky Star (David Pipe/ Tony McCoy) was the best of these over hurdles, winning 6 races, and if he can transfer this ability to fences can win at the main expense of ex-French Epidavros (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and Quartz de Thaix (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), 3rd over this CD last time. Pipe can follow up in the handicap hurdle half an hour later with top-weight Peut etre Sivola (Giles Hawkins) while Alan King, who seems to be coming back to form, can take the mares novice hurdle at 15.20 with Miss Overdrive (Thornton).

Betting forecast Lingfield:
1. Race: Vilnius - D`Urberville - Sonny G
2. Race: Spice Fair - La Toya J - Red Yarn
3. Race: Calculus Affair - Avon Castle - Kathindi
4. Race: Always Dixie - Franki J - Kyoatee Kilt
5. Race: Ghufa - Shannersburg - King`s Majesty
6. Race: Grand Palace - Colombard - Best One
7. Race: Pocket`s Pick - Forest Dane - Valentino Swing
8. Race: Poppanan - Autumn Blades - Baunagain

not with a bang, but a whimper

the 2009 year is ending on a very low note, thanks in part to the bad weather. Today´s meeting at Uttoxeter has been abandoned, so has tomorrow´s at Musselburgh, while there are serious doubts about tomorrow´s fixtures at Catterick and Exeter and Saturday´s at Ayr.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

All-weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton

there is also all-weather racing at a very modest level indeed this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton. Gary Moore has several fancied runners at Lingfield and can take the maiden race over 10 furlongs at 16.05 CET with the consistent Shakalaka (George Baker), who has finished in the money on his last 7 starts.

Obviously the unraced Zerzura (Jimmy Quinn), from the powerful Henry Cecil stable must be respected, as well as Chanrossa (Ed Dunlop/ Jim Crowley) who has several decent CD performances to his credit. The mile handicap here half an hour later could lie between the two top-weights Dens Gift (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) and Pegasus Again (Terry Mills/ Joe Fanning), both CD specialists. At Kempton the two best races are sprint handicaps. The 12yo The Tatling (Milton Bradley/ Jack Dean) has top weight in the 5 furlongs event at 20.20; in his old form he would win this doing handsprings, but he is no longer so reliable, and preference is for Bertoliver (Stuart Williams/ William Carson) and Excellent Show (Brian Smart/ Tom Eaves), just beaten this CD last time.

Smart and Eaves also have a live candidate for the 6 furlongs race at 21.50 with the lightly-raced 3yo Zegna, moving up into handicap company after an easy maiden win this CD last time. Capone (Roger Curtis/ Hayley Turner) ran well in better company at Wolverhampton on Monday; before that he had defeated Vhujon (David Evans/ Paul Doe) over this CD, but the latter reopposes on 6 lbs better terms and may be able to take his revenge.

Taunton only jumps fixture today

with Haydock abandoned, Taunton now stages the only N.H. racing today. Paul Nicholls continues to mop up all the big races (2 more Group Ones yesterday) and he can also score at this much lower level with Tito Bustillo (Ruby Walsh), who despite conceding 10 lbs to all his 13 opponents, can take the novice hurdle at 14.10 CET. Spirit of Adjisa (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) looks the greatest danger, but let´s not overlook ex-German (Jonjo O´Neill/ Noel Fehily).

Despite his two poor efforts so far in the U.K., it should not be forgotten that he was 3rd in the Union-Rennen last year. Nicholls and Walsh also team up with two fancied candidates in the two divisions of the bumper - Ramses de Marsigny at 16.25 and Irish Airman half an hour later; in both cases the almost equally powerful combination of Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty provide the main opposition with Shakalakaboumboum and Owen Glendower respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Asturienne - Dolly Penrose - Misstree Dancer
2. Race: Tito Bustillo - Spirit Of Adjisa - Dean`S Grange
3. Race: Ere Alfie - Brimham Boy - Anay Turge
4. Race: Dona - Karky Schultz - Chaninbar
5. Race: Sea Saffron - Lavenoak Lad - Ultimate Limit
6. Race: Ramses De Marcigny - Shakalakaboomboom - Spring Moon
7. Race: Owen Glendower - Irish Airman - Nehemiah

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Ireland today

Limerick and Leopardstown both stage the final day of their 4-day Christmas meeting today after suffering weather problems yesterday. Leopardstown had to cancel the last 3 races because of fog (not expected this afternoon), while Limerick had to abandon their steeplechases as the chase course was unfit; it is unclear at the moment if they can race on the chase course this afternoon.

Leopardstown has easily the better card today. Quite apart from the rescheduled Lexus Chase at 14.25 CET, the Grade One Christmas Festival Hurdle at 15.00 should offer some solid clues, with 3 live Cheltenham hopefuls in the line-up- Solwhit (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell), Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) and Sublimity (Robbie Hennessy/ Philip Carberry). This is not really a race to bet on, but our fancy is Sublimity. The listed mares hurdle at 13.20 could also be informative, but in theory Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Paul Townend) can hardly lose this: last time out she beat Go Native by 13 lengths at Down Royal, and that one has taken two top Grade One races since.

A couple of German-breds on the undercard take the eye: Directa KIng /Dermot Weld/ Townend) runs in the maiden hurdle at 12.50, while Sweet Wake (Noel Meade/ Condon) goes for the 2 mile hurdle at 13.55. The latter was disappointing last time, but the stable is now in top form and he could be an interesting each-way bet.
At Limerick we expect Killultagh Queen to keep up Willie Mullins´ good run with nephew Emmet in the saddle in the mares maiden hurdle at 14.15, while Grainge Alainn (Willie Burke/ Shay Barry) is dropping in grade and can take the handicap hurdle at 15.20.

Newbury and Southwell today

today´s Musselburgh fixture has been abandoned, leaving a high-class card N.H. at Newbury and a poor all-weather card at Southwell as the only racing in the U.K. today. Newbury stages two Grade One events, including the Long Walk Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.40 CET, held over from last week´s abandoned Ascot card.

In theory this should be easy for Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), the best long distance hurdler in training, although the improving Diamond Harry (Nick Williams/ Timmy Murphy) could be a dangerous opponent. German-bred Fair Along, tough front-runner Lough Derg and Karabak can fight it out for third place, but it will be a surprise if they can defeat the two favourites.

The other main feature is the Challow Novice Hurdle at 15.05, which looks much more open. Manyriverstocross (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and ex-French River d´Or (Nicholls/ Walsh) are the likely favourites here, but there are several possibilities. German-bred Quartano has won his last two starts very easily but now faces much tougher opposition.

A more likely German-bred winner is Iolith (King/ Thornton), who makes his hurdling debut at 14.30. He was group class on the flat for Gestüt Schlenderhan. However this looks quite a strong field, headed by Nicky Henderson´s impressive Newcastle winner Quantitativeeasing (Tony McCoy).

Best race at Southwell is the 5 furlongs handicap at 14.20. Several familiar names in the line-up of 8, including Colorus (Bill Ratcliffe/ Kelly Harrison) and Pawan (Ann Stokell), 2nd and 3rd here recently, and Rebel Duke (Ollie Pears/ Barry McHugh) and Canadian Danehill (Robert Cowell/ Graham Gibbons) 5th and 6th in a slightly better race this CD last time. Our tentative suggestion is Pawan (place only).

Lexus Chase now this afternoon

Leopardstown´s main feature yesterday, the Grade One Lexus Chase, over 3 miles, had to be abandoned at short notice when the track was hit by a sudden blanket of fog, and will now be run this afternoon at 14.25 CET. The field of 12 remains the same, but there will be several jockey changes: Paul Townend now rides Cooldine, one of the main Irish hopes, and Sam Thomas probably partners Paul Nicholls´ What a Friend. It is not yet cler who will ride Voy por Ustedes. Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty and Robert Thornton, booked for these 3 runners respectively, are all due to ride at Newbury today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Acapulco - Directa King - Oscar Carrara
2. Race: Voler La Vedette - Silk Affair - Zarinava
3. Race: New Phase - Financial Reward - Uncle Tom Cobley
4. Race: Joncol - Notre Pere - Cooldine
5. Race: Solwhit - Muirhead - Sublimity
6. Race: Zaarito - Jessies Dream - Sam Adams
7. Race: Scavenger - Judge Deed - Inoma James
8. Race: Some Slam - Don`T Turn Bach - Shuil Dearg

Monday, December 28, 2009

Ireland today

There is frost around in Ireland as well, but the meetings at Leopardstown and Limerick seem to be safe. Big race is the Grade One Lexus Chase at Leopardstown at 15.35 CET, in which 4 of the 12 runners are trained in Britain.

British raiders have won this event for the past 3 years, so the challenge must be taken seriously. Voy por Ustedes (Alan KIng/ Robert Thornton) would appear to be the best chance, although 3 miles on heavy ground may be stretching him, while Paul Nicholls´ What a Friend (Barry Geraghty), runner-up in the Hennessy last time, is an obvious threat. Best of the locals should be Joncol (Paul Nolan/ Aidan Cawley) and Cooldine (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh).

There could also be a British-trained winner of the Christmas Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.00; Lie Forrit (W. Amos/ Campbell Gillies) has won 4 of his last 5 races in excellent style, and although moving up in grade here, can score again for his small stable. The other main race is the novice chase at 14.30, which seems to lie between Pandorama (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) and German-bred Catch Me (Erward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara).

However Willie Mullins fares at the main meeting, he seems sure to be among the winners at Limerick, where his son Paddy can win for the yard at 14.10 on Florida Pal and at 15.50 on Grande Luso, while nephew Emmet´s big chance is in the Grade Three novice hurdle at 14.45 with Enterprise Park.

Frost threatens British racing

Both Chepstow and Leicester have called for a second inspection before this afternoon´s racing can go ahead, while Catterick was already abandoned yesterday. Tomorrow´s meeting at Musselburgh has also been abandoned.
Should Chepstow go ahead, it will be their most important meeting of the year, with the Welsh Grand National at 15.10 CET and the Future Champions Juvenile Hurdle for 3yo´s at 15.45 the main features. Paul Nicholls has booked Tony McCoy for most of his runners here, and can possibly take these races with The Tother One and exciting French import Sang Bleu respectively. However the National is a very open race, and the safest bet could be CD specialist Halcon Genelardais (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), who won this race in 2006 and has been placed in both runnings since.

In any case racing looks certain at Wolverhampton´s all-weather fixture, where the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.45 is by far the best race on the card. Imprimis Tagula (Alan Bailey/ Declan Cannon) is in tremendous form, having won 3 of his last 4 races and can score again before the handicapper reassesses him.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Ireland today

Three N.H. meetings in Ireland today, including yesterday´s postponed Down Royal card. Main meeting is Leopardstown with two Grade One races. The Dial-a-Bet Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 14.25 CET has attracted a strong field, headed by Forpadydeplasterer (Tom Cooper/ Tony McCoy) and Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara), while Willie Mullins saddles two runners, Scotsirish with Ruby Walsh and Golden Silver with Paul Townend. The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at 14.55 is also a good event, with Fionnegas (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) attempting to defend an unbeaten record against such smart performers as Some Present (Tom Mullins/ Davy Russell) and Sweeps Hill (John Kiely/ McCoy), both of whom were behind Dunguib last time. The whole day is sponsored a bookmaker, so it is no surprise to see that the most valuable event is a handicap - the Paddy Power Chase over 3 miles at 16.05. With a maximum field of 28 runners, this is a lottery, but our short list includes Wil lkie Mullins´ two runners Dooners Gate (Walsh) and Pomme Tiepy (Townend) Parsons Pistol (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon) and Hoopy (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire).

There are also large fields at the other Irish meetings. At Limerick, Willie Mullins can also be on the scorecard with Quadrillon at 14.05 and The Midnight Club at 16.50, both partnered by Emmett Mullins, while Sizing America (Andrew Lynch) can continue the trainer Harry de Bromhead´s good run in the handicap chase at 16.20. At Down Royal, Posh Bird (Iain Ferguson/ Andrew Thornton), beaten a short head last time, can take the handicap hurdle at 14.25, while Agus a Vic (P. Martin/ JJ Codd), one of Irelands top hunter-chasers, stands out in the 16.00 race.

Leopardstown - betting forecast:
1. Race: Sword Fish - Big Game Hunter - Loch Long
2. Race: Prince Of Fire - Milanette - Riverstown
3. Race: Forpadydeplasterer - Tranquil Sea - Golden Silver
4. Race: Some Present - Fionnegas - Sweeps Hill
5. Race: Mythical Prince - Back Me Up - Moskova
6. Race: Lochan Lacha - Dooneys Gate - Nycteos
7. Race: Lisrenny Lady - Some Target - Merchant Royal

Limerick - betting forecast:
1. Race: Midtown Boy - Better Times - Belord
2. Race: Quadrillon - Rubi Light - Magnanimity
3. Race: The Flying Dustman - Monaco Springs - Polar Call
4. Race: Watt A Diva - Bob Will Fix It - Club Oscar
5. Race: Special Token - Celtic Carol - Coonagh Cross
6. Race: Sizing America - Merry Cowboy - Hangover
7. Race: The Midnight Club - Prudent Honour - Beckett Rock

Down Royal - betting forecast:
1. Race: Falcon Island - The Equaliser - Miss Pepperpot
2. Race: Cool Dude Luke - The Hard Hat - Misala
3. Race: Posh Bird - Take A Shot - Mount Welcome
4. Race: Macs Mandalus - Sigma Lifestyle - Barcardero
5. Race: Saddlers Storm - Artic Island - Pipers Blaze
6. Race: Agus A Vic - Top Twig - Simonsberg
7. Race: Got Options - Lean Times - Dont Panic

Kempton (N.H.) and Southwell (a.w.)

With Wetherby abandoned, Kempton now stages the only jumping in the U.K. today, while there is also a very modest card at Southwell for fans of all-weather racing. While today´s card at Kempton cannot measure up to yesterday´s brilliant programme, this is still a decent card with the Desert Orchid Chase (Grade Two) over 2 miles at 15.40 CET the main event. Well Chief (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) is the likely favourite here, the German-bred is still one of the best 2 mile chasers around. He can be excused his defeat last time at Sandown, where the ground was too heavy and his performances at Cheltenham make him the one to beat. However he has little in hand of Petit Robin (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), just behind him in the Queen Mother and now 2 lbs better off; he, like Briareus (Andrew Balding/ Robert Thornton) has not run since the Grand National meeting, while other dangers are the much-ímproved Fix the Rib (Gary Moore/ Philip Hide) and Crack away Jack (Emma Lavelle/ N oel Fehily).

There could well be another German-bred winner in the main supporting feature, the Grade Two novice chase, also over 2 miles, at 14.30, in the shape of El Dancer (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell). He receives 6 lbs from the likely hot favourite Riverside Theatre (Henderson/ Geraghty), who made an impressive debut over fences recently, but when they met at level weights over hurdles at Aintree El Dancer came out clearly on top.

Very little to get excited about at Southwell, but it is unusual to see John Gosden saddling a runner in a maiden race at this time of year, so Tejime (Nicky Mackay) should score over 6 furlongs at 15.15, having been placed on both starts so far. But he will not be much of a price, and nor will Desert Vision (Mick Easterby/ Phillip Makin), who can win his 4th race from his last 5 starts under top weight at 14.10.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mille Chief - Westlin` Winds - Mymateeric
2. Race: Riverside Theatre - El Dancer - I Have Dreamed
3. Race: Amber Brook - Argento Luna - Strawberry
4. Race: Well Chief - Petit Robin - Crack Away Jack
5. Race: Little Josh - Pretty Star - Piraya
6. Race: Know The Law - First Avenue - Right Stuff

Southwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Silver Linnet - The Love Guru - Lord Victor
2. Race: Star Promise - Bubbly Bellini - Tamarind Hill
3. Race: Desert Vision - Dream In Blue - Resplendent Ace
4. Race: Total Impact - Grudge - Tartatartufata
5. Race: Tejime - Bandstand - Poet`S Place
6. Race: Avertis - Hilbre Court - Ansells Pride
7. Race: Hit The Switch - Transmission - Camerooney

Ireland today

Both Leopardstown and Limerick begin their 4-day Christmas meetings today with graded races on both cards. At the former track Sizing Europe (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) will be all the rage for the Grade One novice chase at 15.20 CET after 3 impressive wins, Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ Mark Walsh) looks the likeliest danger. The Grade Two 3yo hurdle at 14.30 sees several of Ireland´s top juveniles at the start, 6 of the 8 runners being last-time-out winners. Alaivan (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) won in such good style on his debut that he should be able to take this step up in grade without problem. At Limerick, there could be a problem with the chasing track, which is still frozen in places, and it is possible that only the hurdles races will be run. If the race is run, Coolcashin (Michael Bowe/ Tom Doyle) should dominate the Grade Two novice chase at 15.10, while German-bred Der Spieler (JG Coogan/ Ger Cotter), just touched off last time, has a chance in the hur dle race at 14.40, although Rigour Back Bob (O´Grady/ Shane Flanagan) looks a tough opponent after his easy Thurles win last time. There is still snow on the track at Down Royal, so today´s card has been postponed until tomorrow.

Huntingdon, Wincanton and Wolverhampton (.w.)

The three remaining surviving meetings in the U.K. are of distinctly lower quality than the card at Kempton, but it is interesting that some of the top jockeys are in action at Wincanton, notably "Choc" Thornton, who can win the mares novice hurdle at 13.35 with Alan King´ s Chilli Rose. German-bred Suntini (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) was an easy winner at Lingfield last time and can follow up under bottom weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.20. The best race here is the staying handicap hurdle at 16.25, in which top-weight Ashkazar (David Pipe/ Johnny Farelly) and Nampour (Philip Hobbs/ Giles Hawkins) are our main fancies. At Huntingdon, there are numerous non-runners, but we expect German-bred Bright Sparky (Mick Easterby/ Jake Greenall) to run well in the 2 mile handicap chase at 15.25. At Wolverhampton, the racing is very modest, especially as the one interesting runner (Awesome Act in the 2yo race at 15.15) has now been withdrawn.

rest of Kempton

Even without the King George, the Kempton card is of the highest quality with potential champions on view in 3 of the 5 remaining races. German-bred Bellvano (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) can kick off the programme by winning the novice hurdle at 13.45. The son of Silvano was most impressive last time, and is expected to reach the top. Although it should not be forgotten that his only defeat came when refusing to race in a bumper here, his experienced trainer and jockey should ensure that such mishaps will no longer occur. It could in any case be a huge day for Henderson, who has fancied runners in almost every event. He can win the Grade One novice chase at 14.55 with Long Run, partnered by his owner´s son Sam Waley-Cohnen, and the Christmas Hurdle at 15.30 with Binocular (McCoy). Both have something to prove today - Long Run is having his first race in Britain after a spectacular career in France, where he has won 8 of his 12 races, including two at Grade One level. He is a lso a 4yo racing against older horses, never an easy task, but receives weight from them in compensation. Binocular must make up for his disappointing run in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, in which he finished only 5th behind Go Native (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon), who will put himself in line for a million pound bonus if he can win today and follow up at Cheltenham. In our personal view, the Newcastle form is not reliable, as the race was run at a false pace, and we expect Binocular to put matters right today.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Rest of Kempton

Even without the King George, the Kempton card is of the highest quality with potential champions on view in 3 of the 5 remaining races. German-bred Bellvano (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) can kick off the programme by winning the novice hurdle at 13.45. The son of Silvano was most impressive last time, and is expected to reach the top. Although it should not be forgotten that his only defeat came when refusing to race in a bumper here, his experienced trainer and jockey should ensure that such mishaps will no longer occur. It could in any case be a huge day for Henderson, who has fancied runners in almost every event. He can win the Grade One novice chase at 14.55 with Long Run, partnered by his owner´s son Sam Waley-Cohnen, and the Christmas Hurdle at 15.30 with Binocular (McCoy). Both have something to prove today - Long Run is having his first race in Britain after a spectacular career in France, where he has won 8 of his 12 races, including two at Grade One level. He is a lso a 4yo racing against older horses, never an easy task, but receives weight from them in compensation. Binocular must make up for his disappointing run in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, in which he finished only 5th behind Go Native (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon), who will put himself in line for a million pound bonus if he can win today and follow up at Cheltenham. In our personal view, the Newcastle form is not reliable, as the race was run at a false pace, and we expect Bonocular to put matters right today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bellvano - Menorah - King Olav
2. Race: Busker Royal - Lake Legend - Clova Island
3. Race: Long Run - Tazbar - Minella Theatre
4. Race: Binocular - Go Native - Starluck
5. Race: Kauto Star - Imperial Commander - Madison Du Berlais
6. Race: Nikos Extra - Wogan - Sheriff Hutton

Kauto Star for fourth King George?

Easily the best racing of the day comes from Kempton, where the highlight is the King George VI Chase over 3 miles at 16.05 CET. All eyes here will be on Kauto Star (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who is attempting to win the race for the fourth successive year, a feat never before achieved. The great Desert Orchid won this race 4 times, but not in successive years, as he was beaten by the French raider Nupsala on one occasion, and also lost on his final run here. As a dual winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Kauto Star is already assured of his place in history, but a win today would place him among the all-time greats. We cannot see him being beaten now, even though he only just scrambled home last time at Haydock from Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan), who reopposes on the same terms. However the latter was well beaten here last year, and has never run to his best form on right-handed tracks; there is a theory that Kauto Star is also best going left-hande d (e.g. at Cheltenham) but his record in this race suggests that this cannot be a major problem, especially as his occasionally sticky jumping appears to have improved.

In our view the horses for minor places are Madison du Berlais (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Alberta´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) - runner-up at a respectable distance here last year- the much improved Deep Purple (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), and especially the Queen´s Barbers Shop (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who ran well for a long way last time in the Hennessy and should find this distance and track ideal. Obviously a win for the Queen in the race named after her father would be extremely popular, but even more so would be victory for the hot favourite Kauto Star,and we confidently expect this outcome.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bellvano - Menorah - King Olav
2. Race: Busker Royal - Lake Legend - Clova Island
3. Race: Long Run - Tazbar - Minella Theatre
4. Race: Binocular - Go Native - Starluck
5. Race: Kauto Star - Imperial Commander - Madison Du Berlais
6. Race: Nikos Extra - Wogan - Sheriff Hutton

Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Towcester and Wetherby off, rest O.K.

Four of today´s Boxing Day meetings have had to be abandoned as the tracks are still frozen or under snow following the bad weather earlier in the week, but the big meeting at Kempton goes ahead without any problems, so do Huntingdon and Wincanton, which have both passed an early morning inspection. In Ireland, Leopardstown and Limerick both start their 4-day Christmas festivals today, but the Saturday Down Royal card has been postponed until tomorrow.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

3 days Christmas holiday now for British and Irish racing

There is no racing in the U.K. and Ireland on the 23rd, 24th and 25th of December, giving racing professionals and stable staff a well-earned Christmas holiday. We shall be back on December 26th, Boxing Day in Britain and St. Stephens Day in Ireland, when a huge progamme is scheduled (weather permitting) with the King George VI Chase at Kempton - featuring Kauto Star, the highlight.

all-weather racing at Southwell

Today´s very low-key all-weather meeting at Southwell is now the only racing of the day. 4 of the 7 races are class 6 handicaps with quite large fields, but not very punter-friendly. Easily the best race is the class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs at 13.55 CET. This looks very tricky, and all of the 9 runners have possibilities. Ingleby Arch (David Barron/ Philip Makin) and Nightjar (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) are both course specialists.

When they met here in October the former came out on top, but the latter is now 6 lbs better off and may be able to turn the tables, especially as the distance is probably more suitable for him. Eisteddfod (Paul Cole/ George Baker) is the class act in this field, having plenty of good form in listed races to his credit, but has a huge weight, while the improving lightweights Imprimis Tagula and Snow Bay are in good form, but moving up in grade. The 1 mile 3 furlongs handicap at 15.55 should go to Profit´s Reality (Mike Attwater/ Adam Kirby), who usually runs well here, although the trip is on the short side, while Merrion Tíger (Tony Foster/ Greg Fairley) looks the best bet of the day in the staying handicap that closes the card at 16.25. All his 3 career victories have come over this CD and he won so easily last time that a 9 lbs penalty is unlikely to stop him from following up today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Master Leon - Secretive - Boy The Bell
2. Race: Nightjar - Ingleby Arch - Eisteddfod
3. Race: Thoughtsofstardom - Best One - First Swallow
4. Race: Pocket`s Pick - Metal Guru - Don Pele
5. Race: Sunny Spells - Holyfield Warrior - Jiggalong
6. Race: Full Toss - Profit`S Reality - Indy Driver
7. Race: Merrion Tiger - Dazzling Begum - Stormy Summer

Bangor off - but prospects brighter for Boxing Day

Today´s N.H. meeting at Bangor has been abandoned, leaving the all-weather card at Southwell as the only racing of the day. Much of the British Isles currently lies under frozen snow, but the situation could be much worse, as no racing is scheduled for the next 3 days because of the Christmas holiday, and thaw is forecast during that period, so that prospects for Kempton´s big Boxing Day card look quite positive, as well as for most of the other meetings this coming weekend.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Ffos Las (N.H.) and Kempton (a.w.)

Two meetings left today, and the new Welsh track at Ffos Las offers easily the better card. The German-bred Sweet Shock (MichaelO´Hare/ Andrew Lynch) is an interesting runner in the novice hurdle at 14.05 CET. An easy winner of a Naas bumper, he might be good enough here, although the penalised On Borrowed Wings (Alan Fleming/ Timmy Murphy) as well as Sleepy Hollow (Hughie Morrison/ Tom Scudamore) also have chances. Quattrocento (Peter Bowen/ Richard Johnson) has an obvious chance in the 3 mile handicap chase half an hour later after his good second place at Doncaster, though Nicky Henderson´s Zanzibar Boy (Tony McCoy) looks dangerous off bottom weight, even though he has not run since March. The latter´s team can score with Gold Award in the handicap hurdle at 16.15, where German-bred Walamo (Tim Vaughan/ Johnson) has a each-way chance. The handicap hurdle at 15.10 looks tougher. The Jigsaw Man (Rebecca Curtis/ David Devereux) has won 4 of his 5 starts, but meets better oppo sition this time, and we prefer Helens Vision (AP Boxhall/ Peter Toole), while Wine´n Dine (Bernard Llewellyn/ Daryl Jacob) could also go well at a decent price.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Saturday´s N.H. racing at Ascot and Newcastle abandoned

there is likely to be very little racing on grass this weekend, as Saturday´s meetings at Ascot and Newcastle have already been abandoned, while there will be inspections at Haydock and Navan in Ireland, also for Sunday´s meetings in Carlisle and Thurles (Ireland). However the outlook for the big post-Christmas meetings (Kempton etc) looks brighter as the weather is forecast to improve next week.

Friday, December 18, 2009

German runners at Deauville

It must be hoped that the bad weather that has struck southern England will not cross the channel to Deauville, as there is a mammoth card today with 13 races (4 in the morning and 9 in the main afternoon session), most of them with maximum fields, and numerous German- trained runners. The best chances of a German victory would appear to lie in the 1500 metres conditions race for "jeunes jockeys" at 14.25, in which Fareion (Sascha Smrczek/ Eric Wehrel), Acotango (Erika Mäder/ Yannick Letondeur) and Marny (Hans Blume/ Romain Perruchot) are engaged, and in the claiming race for female jockeys over the same trip half an hour later, with Song of Tiger (Werner Baltromei/ Steffi Hofer), Owentuo (Stefan Wegner/ Delphine Santiago) and De La Vista (Waldemar Hickst/ Melanie Flahaut).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ligne Claire - Dinaday - Last Mansonnien
2. Race: You Wait - Alinade - Miss Tonic
3. Race: Darwin`s Rhea - Galeo Des Flandres - Executant
4. Race: Fareion - Dream In Blue - Delta Victoria
5. Race: Churriana - De La Vista - Owentuo
6. Race: Airwoman - Yankee Star - Monserrat
7. Race: Sledmere - Sisu - Lanabablue
8. Race: Top Harmony - Quanita Pierji - Loulane
9. Race: King Crimson - Montana Moon - Tatoufo

All-weather racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton

It looks as if the all-weather meetings at Southwell this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening will save the day for British racing, but the quality on offer at both tracks looks very poor. It is very rare for Ireland´s champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins to have runners on the flat in Britain, and his Phantasy Pick (Franny Norton), who ran well at Dundalk last time, has an obvious chance in the 3yo handicap over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 14.35 CET at Southwell. The claiming race here half an hour later over 6 furlongs should be dominated by Confuchias (Pat Eddery/ Robert Winston) and Total Impact (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton), who stand out on ratings. Topcroft (Derek Shaw/ Sam Hitchcott) won here yesterday, and if he turns out again can complete a quick fourtimer in the 3yo mile handicap at 16.15.

Several of the jockeys riding here move on to the evening meeting at Wolverhampton, and Robert Winston has another good chance in the main event, a 7 furlongs handicap at 20.50, on Alan Bailey´s consistent Autumn Blades. He meets Arteus (Jane Capple-Ham/ Shane Kelly), who completed a hat-trick when beating him here last time, on 5 lbs better terms. However this is quite a tricky race with many possibilities, including Irish challenger and top-weight Mirandas Girl (Tom Cleary/ Emmett McNamara), who has fair form in hot Dundalk handicaps, and bottom-weight Istiqdaam (Mick Easterby/ Graham Gibbons), an easy CD winner in a lower grade lst time.

Ascot abandoned - other N.H. fixtures doubtful

Today´ s good card at Ascot has been abandoned following overnight snow on top of frost, and tomorrow´s big meeting must also be in serious doubt. There is also jumps racing scheduled today for Uttoxeter and Downpatrick (N. Ireland), but inspections are due to be held at both tracks and racing must be regarded as doubtful.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

All-weather racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton

There is all-weather racing this afternoon at Southwell as well as an early-evening meeting at Wolverhampton. Easily the best race is the class 2 handicap over 9 furlongs at the latter course at 19.00 CET. This is a pretty hot event with 11 runners, 2 of them trained in Ireland - top-weight Monteriggioni (J. Geoghegan/ Emmett McNamara) and Grand Opera (Gordon Elliott/ Declan McDonogh), both of whom ran well at Dundalk last time. Best of the Brits could be Mr. Willis (John Best/ Steve Drowne), who has won 6 of his last 7 races, but has never yet raced at this track, and Bound by Honour (Gary Moore/ George Baker), an easy last time winner. Waldvogel (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), out of the top-class German mare Wurftaube, needs to improve to figure here. At Southwell, course specialist Mozayada (Mel Brittain/ Robert Winston) should win the mile handicap at 16.00. She won 4 races over this CD last winter and looks as he she is coming back to form.

N.H. racing at Exeter, Ludlow and Clonmel (Ireland)

Some quite small fields today, and only 5 turn out for Exeter´s main event, a graduation chase at 15.50 CET. In theory this should be won by Cornas (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), who is easily best at the weights, but Pasco (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) could prove troublesome. There could be a German-bred winner here, as both Princess Flame (Brendan Powell/ Jimmy McCarthy) and Classic Dream (Sean Curran/ Alan Frerman) have chances in a very open handicap hurdle at 14.50. Also at Exeter, Nicky Henderson can land a double with Lady Rhinestone and Carole´ s Legacy at 14.20 and 16.20 respectively, but it is significant that his stable jockey Barry Beraghty goes to Ludlow to ride the promising Topsham Belle in the mares novice hurdle at 16.10, where she has multiple bumper winner Banjaxed Girl (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Paddy Brennan) to beat. Also at Ludlow, we expect the much improved The Snail (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) to win his fourth successive race at 14.10. Ruby Walsh, who seems to fly across the Irish Sea every day at the moment, looks the jockey to follow at Clonmel. He can land a double for Willie Mullins with Apt Approach at 15.05 and Kempes half an hour later, both smart hurdlers going for their first success over fences, and he can round off a good day by winning the handicap chase at 16.05 on his father´s Seabass.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

All-weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton

All-weather racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton. With one exception the races are all very low grade, the exception being the listed Sunbury Stakes at 21.20 CET at Kempton. This has attracted a good field with victory possibly going to Ireland via Dohasa (Ger Lyons/ Emmet McNamara), a very consistent performer at this level, and runner-up last time to the smart Duff.

Ceremonial Jade (Marco Botti/ Kieren Fallon) and Dunelight (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) look best of the Brits. Kirby also has a chance on Walter Swinburn´s Silken Promise in the 11 furlongs handicap at 20.20. Several jockeys are riding at both meetings, including Kieren Fallon, who will probably find it rather chilly after his weekend in Hong Kong. Best bet at Lingfield is the superby-bred Elation (Mark Johnston(/ Joe Fanning) in the 2yo maiden fillies race at 13.30; she ran very green on her debut and should go on to better things. Johnston and Fanning can also take the colts´ equivalent race half an hour later with Licence to Kill.

N.H. racing at Bangor and Newbury

For a midweek meeting just before Christmas, Newbury´s card today is pretty good, with some large fields and very competitive races. The two divisions of the maiden hurdle in particular could see some future stars in the line-up. In the first division at 12.50, we like the chances of Salden Licht (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), despite the rather patchy stable form. This one was a listed performer on the flat for André Fabre and Baron Ullmann and can get off to a winning start over hurdles. In the second divison at 14.25 Nicky Henderson´s Oscar Whisky (Barry Geraghty) is also expected to win on his hurdles debut; he won both his bumpers at this track in very promising style. Henderson and Geraghty can also take the novice hurdle at 16.10 with another potential top-notcher, the mare Candy Creek. The 3yo hurdle at 13.20 can go to Good Lord (Francois Doumen/ Tony McCoy), runner-up on all his 3 starts so far- all at Auteuil- from a stable that always does well in Britain. Another r unner with "seconditis" is Paul Nicholls´ Fistral Beach (Ruby Walsh), who runs in the limited handicap chase for novices at 13.50. He is a real bookies´ friend, having been a beaten favourite for all his last 7 races, finishing runner-up 6 times. He still has a good chance today, with Quinz (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), behind him last time but now better off, the main danger. The jockey is still waiting for the 2,000th winner of his career, and this one is possibly his best chance today.

At Bangor, the main events are two class 3 handicap hurdles. The race at 14.10 should mainly concern top-weight River Logic (John Hetherton/ Keith Mercer), who has come back from a long break in excellent form, and Berwick Law (Paul Robson/ Timmy Murphy), an easy winner 10 days ago. At 15.20 Magnifico (David Evans/ Christian Williams), who just failed in his hat-trick bid last time, has an obvious chance, but we also like Sphinx (Edwin Tuer/ Mercer). Normally we cannot fancy 3yo´s racing against older horses over jumps, but German-bred Heredias (George Baker/ Harry Haynes) should go well in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 15.55, and another German-bred with a chance is Alpha Way (Donald McCain/ Paul Benson) in the novice hurdle at 14.45, even though he appears to be the stable´s second string.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Cork (N.H.) and Southwell (a.w.)

The Irish jumps meeting at Cork today is an all-hurdles affair and starts off with a maiden hurdle for 6yo´s and up at 14.15 CET. German-bred Diophas (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) is arguably the form choice here, but the really interesting one is Jessica Harrington´s Jumbajukiba (Robbie Power), who was group class on the flat and now makes his belated jumping debut. He acts well on heavy ground, so that should be no problem, but his best distance was 7 furlongs, so it remains to be seen if he can stay so much further over hurdles. There should be no such doubts with Morning Supreme (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), one of the best bumper horses last season, who made a successful hurdling debut last time and can follow up at 14.45.

The best race at Southwell is the 5 furlongs handicap at 14.10, with plenty of familiar faces, such as 12yo The Tatling (Milton Bradley/ Jack Dean), who won the race last year and can never be left out of calculations. Ann Stokell´s Pawan is another old CD specialist, but seems to be out of form. This is a very tricky race, but Barney Curley´s Elusive Hawk also comes into the reckoning, as all his 3 career wins have been here, although always over 6 furlongs. His jockey Tom Queally also has a chance of taking the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 on top-weight Conor Dore´s Kipchak, who won at Wolverhampton last week but also goes well here.

N.H. racing at Folkestone and Catterick

the usual Tuesday diet of low grade racing today, with 2 N.H. meetings in the U.K. At Folkestone, the handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET is the most interesting event; only 6 runners, but still a very open affair. When Henrietta Knight books Tony McCoy she usually means business, so the very consistent Soixante must have a chance, but he has been off the track since April and meets several in-form opponents, notably the two top-weights Jump Jet (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) and Vodka Brook (Sue Alner/ Daryl Jacob). The handicap hurdle an hour earlier has 16 runners, but looks more straightforward; Victory Surge (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy) beat Anay Turge (Nigel Hawke/ David Dennis) in a similar event at Warwick last time and they could easily take the first two places again, with the latter possibly gaining revenge on 7 lbs better terms. Richard Johnson has 2 rides for Philip Hobbs here, with Volador in the maiden hurdle at 16.30 having clearly the better chance. If he scores, it would be the 2,000th career winner for Richard Johnson.

At Catterick, useful flat handicapper Tilt (Brian Ellison/ Keith Mercer) is an interesting hurdles debutant at 14.20; the penalised Lightening Rod and Meridin City are the obvious dangers. The staying handicap chase at 14.50 looks very tricky, with Le Vert Galant (Ferdy Murphy/ Neil Moscrop) dangerous off his low weight, but consistent Super Baby (up on distance) and Youngstown are the two to beat. Our best bet here is Broughton Green (Jim Old/ Jason Maguire), who ran respectably against much better opposition last time, and can defy top weight in the staying handicap hurdle at 15.20.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Plumpton (N.H.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

There are now only two meetings in the UK and Ireland today, a very modest all-weather card at Wolverhampton preceded by an above average Monday jumping card from Plumpton. While better class novice chases usually have only a very small field with a long odds-on favourite, quite the opposite is the case in the 14.35 CET race here, which not only has 8 runners but also five more than useful performers. Mahonia (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) is likely to start favourite in view of his connections, but in terms of previous ability over hurdles, both Franchoek (Alan King/ Tony McCoy) and ex-German El Dancer (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) can be preferred, while both Numide (Gary Moore/ Philip Hide) and Shoreacres (Brendan Powell/ Wilson Renwick) are also smart enough. El Dancer is one of our favourite horses and we hope he can pass this test, but it will not be easy. The 3yo hurdle here at 14.05 and the novice hurdle an hour later are also good races, in which he hope to see Tony M cCoy ride a double. In the former he partners Jim Best´s Anak, who after an easy win here on his debut, fell at 6-1 on (!) last time out, and in the latter Abbevillian for Charlie Egerton, who has Aldertune (Nicholls/ Walsh) to beat. The most popular winner of the day however would be the ex-French Lord Francois, having his first race for Tim Vaughan at 16.40 . He is the only ride of the day for Richard Johnson, who is on a career total of 1,999 winners.

It is hard to get excited about the all-weather racing at Wolverhampton, but veteran Yorkshire trainer Mick Easterby has a chance of landing a double with German-bred Bright Sparky (James Sullivan) at 16.50 and hat-trick seeking Desert Vision (Lee Topkiss) at 17.20. The maiden race at 17.50 looks on paper to lie between Barbarian and Tobrata, but if the late debutant Woolfall Sovereign (George Margarson/ Tom Queally) has any ability at all, he could easily win this.

Ayr abandoned

Ayr`s clerk of the course Hazel Peplinski had "no choice" but to abandon Monday`s fixture due to a frozen track. The decision to abandon their last fixture of the year was made on Sunday afternoon following a sharp frost on Saturday night left the track unfit to race, with a similar forecast for last night as well.

Peplinski said: "It got down to -4C on Saturday night and never rose above freezingall afternoon, the divots from the last meeting are rock solid and the forecast tonight is much the same, so we had no chance what so ever. "There is no point delaying the inevitable and hopefully the weather will be on our side when we race next on January 2."

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Ireland today

Much better racing today in Ireland, where both Cork and Navan stage valuable graded races, 3 at the former track and 2 at Navan. However the racing at the latter is arguably better, and it could prove significant that Willie Mullins, who has fancied runners at both fixtures, has booked Ruby Walsh for his runners here. They can begin on a winning note when Cousin Vinny, one of the best novice hurdlers last season, makes his chasing debut at 13.20 CET. Their candidate in the Grade Two Tara Hurdle at 13.50, the very consistent Scotsirish, also has a chance, but Donnas Palm (Noel Meade/ Barry Geraghty), winner of both starts this season, is the clear form choice. Th best event is the Grade One Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 14.20. Only 4 runners here, but all easy last-time-out winners. Three of them are moving up sharply in grade, including Mullins´ Rhyl Accord, so The Hurl (Mouse Morris/ Niall Madden), who won a Grade Two over this CD last time, is the select ion. Walsh also has good chances on Mullins´ Truxton King in the hurdle race at 14.50 and on his father´s Southern Vic, who has top weight in the handicap chase an hour later. The latter is presumably being trained for the Grand National, in which he finished 8th last season, but should still be able to account for today´s opposition.

At Cork, Mullins saddles two in the Grade Three novice húrdle at 14.00, Quel Esprit (Paul Townend) and Arbor Supreme (Emmett Mullins) and could well take the first two places. However his runner in the Hilly Way Chase (Grade Two) at 14.30, Golden Silver (Townend), faces a stiff task against Carthalawn (Charlie Byrnes/ David Casey) and old-timer Watson Lake (Noel Meade/ Davy Condon). The Grade Three novice chase for mares at 15.00 should go to Hello Kitty (Leonard Whitmore/ Sean Flanagan).

Hereford (N.H.) and Kempton (a.w.) today

Nothing to get excited about at today´s two British meetings. As so often happens, the field has cut up badly for Hereford´ s feature race, a novice chase over an extended 3 miles at 15.10 CET, and only 3 will face the starter. Based on hurdles form, this should go to Henry Daly´s Mighty Man (Richard Johnson), one of the best staying hurdlers of recent years and now making his debut over fences. He has to jump round however, and Forest Pennant (Paul Nicholls/ Christian Wiliams), who has already won a similar event and must give him 6 lbs as a result, could be a dangerous opponent. The 2 mile handicap chase at 16.10 looks very tricky. Star Galaxy (John and Rhys Flint) was an easy CD winner last time, but that was his first win after 38 failures, so he is definitely not a cast-iron certainty. Top-weights Ursumman (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and One of the Boys (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) - who unseated his rider as hot favourite last time- has obvious chances, while German-b red Wild Power (H & O Nelmes) likes this track and has been dropped to a very lenient mark.

Another German-bred on a very light weight is Mountain Forest (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Quinn) who runs in the 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 17.25 at Kempton. This step up in distance should suit the son of Tiger Hill, and his two obvious opponents on current form- Private Equity and Very Distinguished, who finished 1-2 over this CD recently- have both gone up in the ratings.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Hong Kong tomorrow morning

There is also flat racing on the all-weather this afternoon and this evening at Wolverhampton, but this is all pretty poor stuff and pales into insignificance beside this weekend´s International Meeting at Hong Kong. Because of the time difference, the 4 Group One races are all run on Sunday morning CET. Europeans have a good record in the Vase,over 1 1/2 miles at 7.00, and this could well lie between the British challengers Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Kieren Fallon) - three times runner-up in the Arc, and Spanish Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore).

The Sprint over 6 furlongs at 7.40 looks the hottest race of the four and has throughout its history been dominated by Hong Kong-trained and Australian-bred runners. This could be the case again, with Sacred Kingdom and Scenic Blast the two favourites. The European challenge is headed by Total Gallery and War Artist, first and third in the Abbaye, but history is against them; however we hope to see German-owned War Artist, who won the Goldene Peitsche 3 months ago, run into the money, as the distance and conditions are ideal. The Mile at 8.50 sees Good Ba Ba attempt to make history; he won this race in 2007 and 2008, when trained by Andreas Schütz, and if he wins this time will be the first horse to win 3 races at this meeting. However we think Happy Zero could now prove th stronger. The Cup over 2000 metres at 9.30 is the most valuable of the 4 races. Vision d´Etat, undoubtedly one of the strongest European entries of the meeting, is apparently a doubtful runner as he has a slight infection in his leg and must first be passed by the official vet. Presvis (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) has a great turn of foot and won the big race here in April, while last year´s winner Eagle Mountain does not seem to be in top form, so Collection, who is now locally-trained and seems to have improved considerably on his British form, looks the safest selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Topping Light - Lombardi - Mr Celerity
2. Race: Supreme Win - Cat Storm - King Of Scots
3. Race: Taverner - Prime Champion - Royal Pericles
4. Race: Youmzain - Viva Pataca - Spanish Moon
5. Race: Apache Cat - Sacred Kingdom - Total Gallery
6. Race: Danzulu - Grand Dragon - Appreciation
7. Race: Happy Zero - Egyptian Ra - Good Ba Ba
8. Race: Vision D`etat - Presvis - Eagle Mountain
9. Race: Beauty Flash - Kings Falcon - White Jade
10. Race: Algarve - Brave Spirit - Always Something

More N.H. racing at Doncaster, Lingfield and Fairyhouse (Ireland)

There are 3 hot handicaps at Doncaster today with big fields and very open betting, but the most interesting races could be the 3 novice hurdles that open the card. In the first division of the 2 miles race at 13.00 CET there are several useful ex-flat horses engaged, notably Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Richard McGrath), who was runner-up in the German Derby last year. He has been gelded since being sold to his present connections and should run well.

In the second division an hour later there is an even higher-profile entry, Cesare (James Fanshawe/ Paul Moloney), a genuine Group One class miler, who was runner-up in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot less than 6 months ago. If he takes well to hurdling, he ought to win this. In between,Possol (Henry Daly/ Richard Johnson) looks a good thing in the stayers race at 13.30. Tony McCoy is in action at Lingfield, where there is only a tiny field for the main event, a Grade Two novice chase at 15.00. He can win this on Nicky Henderson´s Burton Port, who holds Massasoit (Paul Nicholls/ Christian Williams) on earlier form.

McCoy also has decent chnces on Open Day at 13.20 and Soprano at 13.55. both for Jonjo O´Neill. Davy Russell looks the jockey to follow at the Irish meeting at Fairyhouse, where Mrs. Dobbs´ Farringdon at 14.40, Paul Nolan´s Clan Tara at 15.15 and Arthur Moore´s Native Clan at 15.50 all appear to have good prospects.

Top hurdlers at Cheltenham today

Another great card at Cheltenham this afternoon, and although the Boylesports Gold Cup, a valuable handicap chase at 15.25 CET is the big betting race of the day, the main interest will be on the leading hurdlers to be seen later on. The International Hurdle at 16.05 has only 7 runners, but they include the first two from last season´s Champion Hurdle, Punjabi (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh). Punjabi has not run since going down by a short head to Solwhit in April, while Celestial Halo was an impressive winner at Wincanton a month ago and might have a fitness advantage.

Medermet (Alan King /Robert Thornton), whos stable is still not in top form, looks next bst but is unlikely to trouble the top two. Henderson and Geraghty also team up with the unbeaten Zaynar in the Relkeel Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.40; even though it is not clear what his best distance could be, he looks unbeatable here. Shalone (King/ Thornton), unbeaten in 2008 but off the track since, looks next best. Otherwise the day could once again be a Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh benefit, as they have good chances in the Boylesports with Pocquelin, in the handicap chase at 14.15 with top-weight Free World (though we also like German-bred course specialist Moon over Miami here), and in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 14.50 with The Minack, who has Tell Massini to beat. Ruby can also win the opening 3yo hurdle with Ultimate for Brian Ellison.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ultimate - Olofi - Ebiayn
2. Race: Inchidaly Rock - Hey Big Spender - Zemsky
3. Race: Free World - French Opera - Safari Journey
4. Race: Tell Massini - The Minack - Lord Generous
5. Race: Poquelin - Atouchbetweenacara - Chapoturgeon
6. Race: Celestial Halo - Punjabi - Medermit
7. Race: Zaynar - Cape Tribulation - Shalone

Friday, December 11, 2009

N.H. racing at Doncaster and Gowran Park (Ireland)

There is also jumps racing this afternoon at Doncaster and Gowran Park, though obviously well below the standard set at Cheltenham. It is interesting that Philip Hobbs, who has several runners there, sends his stable jockey Richard Johnson to Doncaster, and he could be rewarded by taking the first two races with Memorah at 12.50 and Alazan half an hour later. German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) was a faller at long odds-on last time, but if he stays on his feet, should win the novice chase at 13.50. If he again fails to copmplete, consistent I´m Delilah (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) is the one to take advantage. More German-breeds running here are Sadlers Star, Weststern and Bocciani, who all contest the novices handicap hurdle at 15.00 and each come with decent form. At Gowran Park, there is an all-hurdles card and Andrew McNamara looks the jockey to follow and he can take the opening 3yo race on Alaivan, a listed winner on the flat, and the maiden hurdle at 14.45 with German-bred Belord, both for trainer Edward O´Grady, and also the novice race at 14.10 with Luska Lad, another odds-on flop last time out and now on a retrieving mission.

Excellent Cheltenham card

There is an excellent card at Cheltenham today and the most interesting race could be the cross-country handicap over 3 miles 7 furlongs at 14.15 CET with 16 runners, 6 of them trained in Ireland. Enda Bolger is the king of the cross-country and he saddles 3 runners here, including top-weight Garde Champetre (J.T. McNamara), who is clearly the outstanding performer in this discipline, having won 7 of his last 11 races, including 4 this CD, one of them this race last year.

However he is now 12 lbs higher than in 2008 and faces a huge task in giving lumps of weight to some other specialists, notably his stable companion Heads onthe Ground (Nina Carberry), runner-up to him last time and now10lbs better off. Sizing Australia (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) was a close third then and so also comes into the reckoning, while we have not given up hope with 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch (Gordon Elliott/ Denis O´Regan), even though he is not so well handcapped.

In the unlikely event of a British-trained winner, King Harald (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Batchelor) would have a chance at the weights, but our two against the field are Heads on the Ground and Silver Birch.The other races look very tricky, but we suggest Weird Al (In Williams/ Noel Fehily) in the novice chase at 13.15, Yetholm (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint) in the handicap hurdle at 13.40, Pomme Tiepy (Willie Mullins/ Robert Thornton) in the listed handicap chase at 14.50 and German-bred Macaillou (Paul Nolan/ Aidan Cawley) in the stayers handicap hurdle at 16.00 as potentially profitable each-way bets. The final novice hurdle at 16.35 is another fascinating event, which sees 3 smart bumper horses from top stables making their debuts over sticks.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Weird Al - Minella Theatre - Pigeon Island
2. Race: Calzaghe - Spirit River - Still At Lunch
3. Race: Garde Champetre - Sizing Australia - Heads Onthe Ground
4. Race: The Tother One - Kia Kaha - Any Currency
5. Race: Gaora Lane - Manmoon - Sound Stage
6. Race: Earth Planet - Wolf Moon - Trenchant
7. Race: Ghizao - Lidar - General Miller

Thursday, December 10, 2009

German runners at Deauville

another huge card at Deauville with 13 races, 4 in the morning and 9 in the main afternoon session. Once again there are 18 runners in the main event, the listed Prix Lyphard at 13.55, including 4 runners: Il Divo (Andreas Wöhler/ Eduardo Pedroza), Forthemillionkiss (Uwe Ostmann/ Gregory Benoist), Magic Eye (Andreas Löwe/ Andreas Pietsch) and Arlanda (Katja Gernreich/ Allan Bonnefoy). Although the last-named, with all due respect, appears to have no chance, the other 3 could all run well, as could the Newmarket challenger Philatelist (Michael Jarvis/ Julien Augé), but this is a wide-open race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Solitary - Kimcum - Swinging Hawk
2. Race: Perky - I Shall Be Back - Dream of Heart
3. Race: Time For Gold - Darjani - Sky Crusader
4. Race: Vera`s Moscou - Roman Eagle - Lady Aline
5. Race: Aleandros - Expensive Detour - Ceodora
6. Race: New`s Ivoire - La Pailhette - Surething
7. Race: Staraco - Mikos - Free And Brave
8. Race: Lyubov - Djakalmi - Hamilton Blue
9. Race: Shine For Me - Flashstar - Mister Choclate

Fairyhouse (Ireland) and Kempton (a.w.)

there are also two low-key meetings today, over jumps at Fairyhouse (Ireland) and on the all-weather in an early evening meeting at Kempton. At Fairyhouse, where the going will be very testing, Willie Mullins can land a double with Cadspeed (Paul Townend) in the maiden hurdle at 14.35 CET, and Paul Kristian (Paddy Mullins) in the bumper. At Kempton, Sharmir (Jo Crowley/ Fergus Sweeney), who has been placed on his last 3 starts, can get off the mark in the 2yo maiden at 18.00, while the 2 mile handicap at 18.30 sees a rematch between top-weight Viper (Reg Hollinshead/ Hayley Turner) and bottom weight Moonbeam Dancer( David Simcock/ Andrea Atzeni). Viper meets his last time CD conqueror on better terms now, but Moonbeam Dancer won well that day and seems to be still on a good mark, so we fancy he can win again.

Betting forecast Fairyhouse:
1. Race: Drive On Regardles - Cool Dude Luke - Mickey Blue Eyes
2. Race: Cadspeed - Kilflora - Mary`S Little Vic
3. Race: Bob Will Fix It - L`Oiseau De Feu - Seisdon Honour
4. Race: Rebel Chief - Florimund - Nipper John
5. Race: Mighty Bob - Tiernan`S Terror - Springmount
6. Race: Paul Kristian - Figairy - Mighty Snazy

Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton

big race of the day is the Peterborough Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.00 CET, Huntingdon´s most important race of the season, which has attracted a high class field. Alberta´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill)/ Tony McCoy), Deep Purple (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Herecomesthetruth (Paul Nicholls/ Christian Williams) all won at this Grade Two level last time out but are penalised 10 lbs as a result. On these terms we prefer Tidal Wave (Howard Johnson / Penis O´Regan), who looks as he is coming back to form after a disappointing season, and especially Racing Demon (Henrietta Knight/ Graham Lee), who has not run for 20 months but won this race in 2006 and 2007; "Hen" has in fact won it 7 times in the last 10 years! Despite the strong card at Huntingdon, it is noticeable that some of the top jockeys are riding elsewhere. Paul Nicholls and Alan King, for example, have ordered Ruby Walsh and Robert Thornton to Taunton, and it would be no surprise to see them fight out the finish of 3 races: the novice hurdle at 14.20 with Valentine Vic and Little George, the novice chase half an hour later with Recif de Thaix and Cracboumwitz, and another half an hour later, the novice hurdle with Tito Bustillo and The Betchworth Kid respectively. The last-named, who was group class on the flat, is our tip of the day. Meanwhile Nicky Henderson has sent two runners to Ludlow, accompanied by stable jockey Barry Geraghty, Acordeon in the novice chase at 14.10 and debutant Ceilidh Royle in the mares bumper at 16.40.

Betting forecast Huntingdon:
1. Race: Mistress To No One - Northern Dune - Reland
2. Race: Miss Sarenne - Calusa Crystal - Izita Star
3. Race: Cool Operator - First Avenue - Picaroon
4. Race: Tidal Bay - Albertas Run - Herecomesthetruth
5. Race: Kerada - Cranky Corner - The Bonus Ball
6. Race: Buffalo Bob - Fine Parchment - Red Rattle
7. Race: Exotic Man - Iona Days - Stratigic Gale

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

German runners at Deauville

Deauville´s December meeting continues today with a huge card (5 races in the morning and 9 in the afternoon) and very large fields. There are 18 engaged in the main event, the listed Prix Petit Etoile for 3yo fillies over 1900 metres at 14.55, including two trained in Germany, Ann Annalena (Andreas Löwe/ Henk Grewe) as well as Peter Schiergen´s The Only Key; Filip Minarik was booked to ride the latter, but is now out of action with an injured hand. This looks a very open affair, but the Schiergen filly is badly drawn on the wide outside, together with British raider Hidden Brief (Michael Jarvis/ Jamie Spencer). There are also numerous German runners on the undercard. In our opinion the race most likely to fall to a German-trained runner is the claiming race for 3yo´s over 1500 metres at 14.55, in which all 3 German runners must have a decent chance - A Special Dream (Nina Bach/ Eric Wehrel), Agura (Mario Hofer/ Frank Panicucci) and Event Dash (Norbert Sauer/ Romuald Becker). A Special Dream was behind Agura at Halle, but has since won easily on the sand in Germany and we think he could come out best of this trio.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Too Nice Name - Okapina - Charity Eria
2. Race: Vicvic - Armanty - Arrieta
3. Race: Lake Palace - Becomes You - Russiana
4. Race: Ribadesella - Easterland - Lion of the Day
5. Race: Zaira - Agura - Volez
6. Race: Ainebe Crocus - Asserdoun - Greenwich Meantime
7. Race: Elegant Dancer - Morya - Salsa de la Tour
8. Race: Lucky Number - Lucky Name - My Secret Love
9. Race: Parti Ami Ami - Hard Way - Kasrawad

All-weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton

Selling and claiming races are not the most reliable betting opportunities, but it is hard to see Sir Edwin Landseer (Gary Moore/ Fergus Sweeney) and Zubova (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) being beaten in the first 2 races this afternoon at Lingfield. Later on, the 1 1/2 handicap at 16.30 CET looks much more open. Kieren Fallon, who will soon be jetting off to Hong Kong, has a chance here with Eagle Nebula, but we prefer top-weight and course specialist Bell Island (Lady Herries/ Hughes). We cannot imagine that many racegoers will make their way to Kempton´s modest racing this evening, but we fancy Ipswich Lad (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) to win the 10 furlongs race for 2yo maidens at 19.50 and the jockey has another good chance on Tommy Keddy´s consistent Dinner Date in the 10 furlongs handicap at 20.30, where improving 3yo Best in Class /Steve Williams/ Dane O´Neill) looks the chief danger.

N.H. racing at Hexham and Leicester

Hexham´s card features two valuable and very competitive handicaps, over hurdles at 13.50 CET and over fences an hour later. In the former event, Sir Tantalus Hawk (Alan Swinbank/ Brian Hughes) and Catch Bob (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) look likely candidates, and the Murphy/ Lee team also have good prospects in the chase with the lightly-raced Nouveau Maire, who is stepping up in trip, and has the tough 12yo Huka Lodge (James Ewart/ Harry Haynes) and Mr. Strachan (Sue Smith/ Richard McGrath) as two of his main opponents. Murphy and Lee also have a good chance with Hollinwell in the novice chase at 15.50, but in theory he cannot give weight to the smart Abbeybraney (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan).

At Leicester, where the going is confusingly described as heavy on the hurdles course and good to soft on the chase course, we hope to see German-bred Early Wings (Caroline Bailey/ Christian Williams) finally record his first British win (after 19 attempts!) in the novice handicap chase at 14.10. Richard Guest and jockey Paddy Aspell provide the main opposition with the consistent Russian Invader, and can follow up half an hour later with Applaude in the selling hurdle; this one, after a series of poor efforts on the flat, was a revelation when his winning his first race over hurdles this CD 10 days ago. We have narrowed down the handicap chase at 15.10 to just two runners, Grand Slam Hero and Vamizi, and the handicap hurdle an hour later to Shadow Dancer and Deep Reflection, but they are both wide open races in which almost anything could win.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Fontwell (N.H.), Sedgefield (N.H.) and Southwell (a.w.)

Fontwell´s card today can start with two wins by odds-on favourites - Anak (Jim Best/ Tony McCoy) in the 3yo hurdle at 13.40 CET and Ginolad (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the beginners chase at 14.10. The latter is making his British debut, but was a smart performer down under and last ran in a super-valuable race in Japan. Martin Keighley has his string on good form, and his recent winners Poncha Train at 15.10 and Love of Tara half an hour later, both partnered by Warren Marston, should make their presence felt again, though the latter must give weight to some useful performers, notably Ballybach (Nick Gifford/ Tony McCoy), a close 4th at Ascot last time.
At Sedgefield, Robert Thornton can land a double on John Quinn´ s Ballyriggan in the novice hurdle at 14.20 and Evan Williams´ Hector´s House in the 3yo hurdle half an hour later, both runners-up last time and now due for a win. Deuteronomy (John Wade/ Brian Hughes) is also due for a win in the handicap chase at 15.50, having repeatedly been placed, but here we prefer top-weight Categorical (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan). Mick Quinlan can take the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 13.50 with Petroglyph (David Bass) and can also be on the scorecard at Southwell, where he saddles Athwaab and Marsam in the first two races, both ridden by Neil Callan. Main event here is the 5 furlongs handicap at 14.00. Canadian Danehill (Robert Cowell/ Callan) and Pawan (Ann Stokell) are familiar faces here, but we go for the improving 3yo Lesleys Choice (Roger Curtis/ Frankie McDonald), who can complete a hat-trick. another improving type on a roll is Shadows Lengthen (Mick Easterby/ J ames Sullivan), who can complete a quick fourtimer under top-weight in the 11 furlongs handicap at 14.30.

Mick Kinane to announce retirement?

Today´s Racing Post reports that it is expected that top Irish jockey Mick Kinane is about to announce his retirement from the saddle. The 50-year-old has been one of the world´s top jockeys for the past quarter century and enjoyed one of his best ever seasons in 2009 thanks to his partnership with Sea the Stars, on whom he won 6 Group One races, including the Derby and the Arc.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Schnakenbergs at Cagnes

Elfi Schnakenberg sends her talented young hurdler Soverness on the long journey from northern Germany to the South of France today to run over 3900 metres at 15.25 at the winter meeting at Cagnes-sur-mer. Soverness, who will be ridden by the trainer´s son Oliver, has won his last two races, but faces stiff opposition here, his eleven opponents including several with good form from Auteuil - two of them even Group One winners! However he is an improving sort, who could well run a good race at a decent price.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Salsavana - Victory Man - Antamat
2. Race: Skyris - Del Mar - Majorque De Baune
3. Race: Scothy Luck - Bahia Do Brasil - Salon De Provence
4. Race: American Bowl - Portillo - Sourire Du Chenet
5. Race: Le Prestigieux - Vitello - Akadour
6. Race: Don Lino - Tzarine De La Mone - Imperial Secret
7. Race: General Tete Jaune - Mably de Chadzeau - Zarkali
8. Race: Classical Card - Glazig Du Graglan - Sacre Major

Musselburgh (N.H.), Lingfield (a.w.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

None of today´s 3 British meetings offer much in the way of quality racing, but the handicap hurdle at 15.20 CET at Musselburgh is quite a competitive event, in which German-bred First Stream (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan), must hold a chance, despite being off the track since March. Natural Action (Peter Bowen/ David Devereux), who is going for a hat-trick, looks the main danger.

There are several Irish-trained runners here, and there could be a double for the raiders from across the Irish Sea with Dumitas (Colm McBratney/ Tony McCoy) in the maiden hurdle at 14.20 and Final Day (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire) in the bumper at 16.20. There could also be Irish winners at Wolverhampton, where Eddie Ahern can land a double on Fandango Boy (JP Broderick), who can defy top weight in the 8 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.40 after twice winning at Dundalk, and Dash Back (Ado McGuiness), who likes this track, in the 6 furlongs handicap at 18.10. t Limngfield, th Irish-bprn, but nglish-bsed trainers Richtrd Fahy and Pat ddery could be among th winners. The former runs two in the 7 furlongs claimer at 14.30 and on ratings they should dominate the race, while Eddery´s Hidden Glory (Robert Winston) looks a good thing in the 2yo maiden at 15.00. German-bred Mountain Forest (Hughie Morrison/ Steve Drowne) is only modest but has a very lenient rating and can take the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.30.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Ireland: Clonmel off, Punchestown on

Today´s Irish N.H. meeting at Clonmel has been abandoned, but the much higher profile meeting at Punchestown goes ahead, although the going will be extremely testing. There are only 5 runners in the main event, the Grade One John Durkan Memorial chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.05 CET, but they are all pretty smart. Aran Concerto (Noel Meade/ Barry Geraghty) has not run since narrowly defeating Barker (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) over this CD in April, and the latter followed up with an easy success from the smart Forpadytheplasterer. Mullins also saddles J´ y Vole (Paul Townend), who last ran in Auteuil, but Ruby presumably rides the stable´s first choice. Joncol (Paul Nolan/ Aidan Cawley) is also a major prospect, but the most interesting runner is In Compliance (Dessie Hughes/ Paddy Flood), who won this back in 2006 and after a long lay-off with injury made a good recent winning comeback at Thurles. There is also a small field for the main supporting feature, a listed novice h urdle at 14.05, where Jessica Harrington fields two of the 4 runners, both last-time-out winners, while Call the Police is still undefeated under rules. However our choice is Noel Meade´s Asigh Pearl (Davy Condon), who as the only mare gets a useful 5 lbs allowance and never seems to run a bad race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hugo De Vindecy - Start Me Up - Green Mining
2. Race: Asigh Pearl - Saludos - Coole River
3. Race: Colbert Station - Sinatra Bar - Le Marquis
4. Race: Joncol - Barker - Aran Concerto
5. Race: Lenabane - Sam Adams - Beckett Rock
6. Race: Bringbackthebiff - Financial Reward - Southern Vic
7. Race: Our Girl Salley - Lean Times - Rough Times

Kelso (N.H.), Warwick (N.H.) and Lingfield (a.w.)

As so often, the Sunday cards in the U.K. are not very exciting and easily the best race is the valuable Totesport.com Chase over 3 miles at Warwick at 14.40 CET. Although there is only a small field, this could be quite a race with Our Vic (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), Don´ t Push It (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and My Will (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) all in the line-up. An hour earlier, Nicky Henderson can continue his winning run with Aigle d´Or in the beginners chase. Main event at Kelso is the Scottish Borders National over 4 miles at 15.20. Several of the runners come into the race in good form, but the extreme distance on this very soft ground will find some of them out, and we gofor the two dour stayers Royal Rosa (Howard Johnson/ Denis O Regan) and L´Aventure (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob). Earlier, Knockara Beau and Money Trix can land a short-priced double at 13.50 and 14.20. The all-weather card at Lingfield has bigger fields, but is short on quality. The best be tting race here is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.30. Brandywell Boy (Derek ffrench Davis/ Billy Cray) won over this CD last time out by a head from Billy Red (John Jenkins/ Fergus Sweeney), but the latter is now 3 lbs better off and can take his revenge.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Chasing Clouds - Just Maddie - Wheyaye
2. Race: Knockara Beau - Calin Royal - Ellandshe
3. Race: Money Trix - Cloudy Lane - Nirvana Swing
4. Race: Cassius - Glingerbank - Nelson Du Ronceray
5. Race: Jaunty Journey - L`Aventure - Royal Rosa
6. Race: Red Onion - Montoya`S Son - Vivaldi
7. Race: Ballymacduff - Old Noddy - Solway Ally

Caudillo at Toulouse

Today´s Toulouse fixture is the last flat meeting of the year on turf in France and the main event is the listed race over 2400 metres at 14.20, the final race in the Defi du Galop series. German-trained Caudillo (Dr. Bolte/ Henk Grewe) has a good each-way chance here, even though the distance is short of his best. However the opposition looks strong, and multiple winners Young Tiger, who has already won 3 races in the series this season and is assured of the 200,000 euros bonus, as well as Blek look big dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: - - -
2. Race: Skull And Bones - La Triste Condesa - Mestre
3. Race: Crackovia - Baroud de Coeur - Hermoun
4. Race: Certainement - Young Tiger - Green Tango
5. Race: Retour aux Sources - Juno Beach - Memoussu
6. Race: Satchmo Bay - Raganeyev - Carimo
7. Race: Oeil pour Oeil - Bounce Card - Synaptique
8. Race: Lectrice - Lord Vell - Red Tune
9. Race: Theorique - Sandy Road - Kasali

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Chepstow, Wetherby and Navan

there is also N.H. racing today at Chepstow in Wales, Wetherby in Yorkshire and Navan in Ireland. All 3 meetings report heavy hoing, and punters should try to stick to horses that can act in the conditions. One of them is Sue Smith´s veteran Mr. McGoldrick, who carries top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 14.40 at Wetherby and seems to act on any ground; he is also a CD specialist and we hope to see him defeat last years´s winner Terenzium. Here there are also only 4 runners in the novice chase at 14.10, which looks a match between Rory Boy and Gansey. Charlie Mann does very well with his German imports, and his Sullumo has a good chance in the novice chase at 14.05 at Chepstow, although this is quite a strong field, and Paul Nicholl´s Beshabar, off the track for 21 months, could be very dangerous if fully fit. Alan King´s stable seems to be coming back into form, and he can take the handicap chase here at 15.35 with Stolen Moments, although Bob Bob Bobbin looks a threat if he can shrug off his latest below form effort. Two likely odds-on favourites who should score at Navan are Osana at 13.00 (another novice chase with 4 runners) and Quinola des Obeaux in the novice hurdle at 15.00, while Operation Houdini can make up for his latest mishap and win the Grade C handicap hurdle here at 15.30.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: King O`The Gypsies - Edge Of Town - Echoes Of Dawn
2. Race: Manjam - Andorn - Seven Stars
3. Race: Rory Boy - Gansey - Calin Royal
4. Race: Mister Mcgoldrick - Sir Tantallus Hawk - Terenzium
5. Race: Royal Riviera - Craig Lea - Danderek
6. Race: Polar Gunner - Kilkenny All Star - Babe Heffron
7. Race: Dawn Ride - Canada Street - Bannister Lane

all-weather racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton

today´s two all-weather cards are clearly overshadowed by the excellent jumps racing, but the 6 furlongs handicap at 14.50 CET at Southwell looks quite a competitive heat. Ingelby Arch can complete a quick CD hat-trick, but Confuchias, who has been racing in much better company for most of his career, looks a big threat. The situation in the 1 mile 3 furlongs handicap half an hour later is similar; Lucky Punt, the only 3yo in the field, is the choice on recent form, but top-weight Luberon, off the track since March, when he was 4th to Scintillo ( Group One winner!), is the class act. He is partnered by Kieren Fallon, who in company wth several other jockeys, travels on to Wolverhampton´s evening meeting, and can land a double here with La Gifted at 18.50 and Bee Stinger two hours later.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Istiqdaam - La Gifted - Dash Back
2. Race: James Barrymore - High Constable - Barreq
3. Race: Bertie Southstreet - Lindoro - Whitbarrow
4. Race: Nickel Silver - Mrs Penny - Argentine
5. Race: Bee Stinger - Chocolate Caramel - Anfield Road
6. Race: Inflammable - Laureldeans Best - Gheed
7. Race: Squirtle - Purely By Chance - Paint The Town Red
8. Race: Bidable - Why Nee Amy - Royal Manor

Tingle Creek at Sandown

The Tingle Creek Chase over 2 miles at 15.25 CET at Sandown is easily the best race of the day and although the field has cut up to only 5 runners, it is still a high-class event. Two of the runners are German-bred and both should be involved in the finish - Well Chief (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), who was famously third here in 2004 to Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiotop in the best ever renewal of this event (named after one of the best 2 mile chasers of all time), while Twist Magic (Ruby Walsh), whose trainer Paul Nicholls has an excellent record here, is a previous winner, taking this in 2007. The two Irish runners look very dangerous - Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Barry Geraghty) is the likely favourite after his easy win last time and his narrow defeat at Punchestown by Master Minded (last year´s winner but missing now because of injury), while Forpadytheplasterer (Tom Cooper/ Tony McCoy) was a good winner at the Cheltenham festival. Even the outsider of the field, Mahogany Blaze (Nig el Twiston-Davies), although held by Well Chief on latest running, is not out of it, as he is possibly the only runner who will enjoy the heavy ground. We would love to see Well Chief win, but his health problems are well known, while Big Zeb would probably win easily if he puts in a clear round, but he is a dodgy jumper at times. This is a race to savour rather to bet on. The field for the Grade Two Henry VIII chase, also over 2 miles at 14.55, is even smaller, but all four runners are last-time-out winners and this is another strong race. Crack Away Jack (Emma Lavelle/ Noel Fehily) was the best of these over hurdles (finishing 4th in the Champion Hurdle) and we expect him to prove the best over fences as well. Two long shots we think might run well in the hot handicap hurdles on the undercard are Silverburn (Evan Williams/ Rhys Flint) at 13.55 and Gaspara (Pipe/ Danny Cook) at 16.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alderluck - Nycteos - Ballyfitz
2. Race: Sonowyouno - Master Of The Hall - Henry Hook
3. Race: Crack Away Jack - Somersby - Tchico Polos
4. Race: Big Zeb - Twist Magic - Well Chief
5. Race: Overstrand - Tasheba - William Hogarth
6. Race: Russian Trigger - Kilbeggan Blade - Lorum Leader

All racing on today

Sandown and Wetherby have passed early morning inspections and it looks as if all 6 of today´s meetings in the UK and Ireland will go ahead as planned. This is the good news, especially for Sandown which has one of its best cards of the season. However the bad weather is not over yet and more problems are in store, especially in Ireland, while yesterday the last 2 races in Exeter had to be abandoned because of fog. The going today will be very soft/ heavy at all turf meetings.

Wetherby - betting forecast:
1. Race: King O`The Gypsies - Edge Of Town - Echoes Of Dawn
2. Race: Manjam - Andorn - Seven Stars
3. Race: Rory Boy - Gansey - Calin Royal
4. Race: Mister Mcgoldrick - Sir Tantallus Hawk - Terenzium
5. Race: Royal Riviera - Craig Lea - Danderek
6. Race: Polar Gunner - Kilkenny All Star - Babe Heffron
7. Race: Dawn Ride - Canada Street - Bannister Lane

Tingle Creek at Sandown

The Tingle Creek Chase over 2 miles at 15.25 CET at Sandown is easily the best race of the day and although the field has cut up to only 5 runners, it is still a high-class event. Two of the runners are German-bred and both should be involved in the finish - Well Chief (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), who was famously third here in 2004 to Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiotop in the best ever renewal of this event (named after one of the best 2 mile chasers of all time), while Twist Magic (Ruby Walsh), whose trainer Paul Nicholls has an excellent record here, is a previous winner, taking this in 2007.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alderluck - Nycteos - Ballyfitz
2. Race: Sonowyouno - Master Of The Hall - Henry Hook
3. Race: Crack Away Jack - Somersby - Tchico Polos
4. Race: Big Zeb - Twist Magic - Well Chief
5. Race: Overstrand - Tasheba - William Hogarth
6. Race: Russian Trigger - Hennessy - Kilbeggan Blade

Friday, December 04, 2009

All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

Today´s two all-weather meetings offer little in the way of good betting opportunities. but we expect the two divisions of the race for 2yo maiden fillies at Lingfield to go to Elvira Madigan (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) at 13.10 CET and Fashion Insider (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer) at 14.15, both of whom ran with promise on their debuts.

The mile handicap at 15.25 looks very tricky, but we might take a chance with Orchard Supreme (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who has been dropped in the weights following some sub-par performances, but usually runs well at this track. Several of the jockeys riding here travel up to Wolverhampton for the evening meeting, and Liam Keniry can score here with Stan Moore´s Southandwest in th 8 1/2 furlongs at 21.50. The 5 furlongs handicap that closes the card at 22.20 looks wide open, but we fancy the 3 bottom-weights, Cayman Fox, Perlachy and Fantasy Fighter, could be the 3 to beat.

N.H. racing at Sandown and Exeter

Some excellent N.H. racing today at both Sandown and Exeter, and although some of the fields are small, they are all very competitive.

The German-bred Evening Sunset (Mick Quinlan/ Tony McCoy) may be able to keep his unbeaten record in the 3yo hurdle at 13.50 CET at Sandown, but he is facing better opposition here and French raider Spunk (Francois Doumen/ Dougie Costello) in particular looks threatening.

There is a similar scenario in the next race, a novices handicap chase, with Paul Nicholls´ Rivalist (Ruby Walsh) also moving up in grade and top-weight Latanier (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) and Award Winner (Brendan Powell/ McCoy) both look dangerous in a tricky event. Nicholls probably has better chances in the listed Future Stars chase at 15.35, where he saddles 2 of the 4 runners, Tatenen (Walsh) and Kicks for Free (McCoy), but here David Pipe´s Seven is my Number (Timmy Murphy), getting quite a bit of weight, could be the fly in the ointment. Nicholls´ runner Like Minded (Walsh) in the main event, a Grade Two novice hurdle at 15.00, is undoubtedly a smart prospect, but so are Manyriverstocross (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) and Frascati Park (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Noel Fehily). These are all tricky races to bet on, and it is no easier at Exeter, whare Nicholls again has a live candidate Royal Charm (Christian Williams) in the 4yo limited handicap hurdle at 14.00. But this is another hot race, where ny of the 6 runners could win.

Safer bet is probbly Bnsalem (Aln King/ Robrt Thgornton) in the novice chase at 14.35, as the trainer considers ge now knows the rason some of his string have been running below form. Bensalem has won 5 of his 6 starts (his only defeat was by the very smart Diamond Harry) and should now beat Nicholls´ Take the Breeze (Harry Skelton) and the others. The 4 mile marathon handicap chase at 15.10 will demand stamina in abundance in the testing conditions, and few of the runners have experience at this distance. However Peut Etre Sivola (Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) was running on so strongly when scoring over 3 1/2 miles last time, that he should manage this extra half mile.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

German runners at Deauville

Deauville´s December meeting gets under way today with huge fields and 12 races, 4 in the morning session (midi) and 8 in the main afternoon session. Mein event is the listed Prix Luthier over 1500 metres at 14.25 with 16 runners. Likely favourite here is the Aga Khan´s Dalghar (Alain de Royer-Dupre / J-B Eyquem), but he has a bad draw and the British raider Red Dune (Michael Jarvis/ FX Bertras) can be preferred.

There are no German runners in this, but plenty on the undercard. Mario Hofer saddles 2 2yo´s with Gaetan Masure in the saddle, Imasci at 11.20 and Sunmoonroyale half an hour later, as well as Royal Pepper ( Vincent Vion) in the 1900 metres claimer at 15.25, in which Sina (Sascha Smcrzek/ Eric Wehrel) is also engaged, as well as several ex-Germans. Smcrzek also has Beltana running in the 3yo race over 1300 metres at 12.50, but in our view the best German hope of the day is Waldemar Hickst´s Atila Sher Danon at 14.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Private Love - Mac Kindley - Obelo Darche
2. Race: Quid du Prieur - Rick Des Sales - Quasar Joli
3. Race: Sarah Phi - Simply The Best - Signeville
4. Race: Real Music - Rocket Des Salines - Rivale Des Charmes
5. Race: Prince De Montfort - Plenty Pocket - Lipouz Lesmelchen
6. Race: Pepite Grangelabbe - Private Melody - Pepite Grangelabbe
7. Race: Pabius - Pur Pin - Navarro Sun
8. Race: Swahili De Nacre - Swahili De Nacre - Swahili De Nacre

Naas (N.H. in Ireland) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

The going will be very testing at Naas this afternoon, but there is some very competitive racing. In the listed hurdles race at 14.30 CET Torphichen (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) could be the safest selection, although Arabella Boy (Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry) and Ebadiyan (Oliver Brady/ John Cullen) are also both pretty useful. Of even more interest could be the beginners chase a 13.50, in which Captain Cee Bee (Edward Harty/ Tony McCoy) reappears after being off the track for 20 months. He looked a great prospect then and today must most fear another useful hurdler Zaarito (Colm Murphy/ Paul Townend), who however fell over fences last time. The sport on offer at the early evening all-weather meeting at Wolverhampton is much less exciting, but we hope to see Arteus (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Shane Kelly) complete a hat-trick in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.45, and Wellmarked (John Quinn/ Eddie Ahern) win the 2yo maiden at 18.15. Most interesting runner here could be Prohibiti on (William Haggas/ Jamie Spencer) in the 3yo handicap 19.15, but he has been off the track for a year and on recent form bottom-weight Oriental Cavalier (Reg Hollisnhead/ Graham Gibbons) might be a better option.

N.H. racing at Leicester, Market Rasen and Wincanton

There are some small fields this afternoon at Wincanton and Market Rasen, and at the latter track only 5 turn out for the main event, a novices handicap chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.25 CET. Despite that it is quite a tricky event and our preference is for Bay Cherry (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan), an easy winner at Kelso last time, and on that form he holds top weight and main danger Fabalu (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire). There are also only 5 runners in the beginners chase at 15.45 at Wincanton, where the interesting runner is Aux le Bahnn (Noel Chance/ Jack Doyle), unbeaten in 3 starts over hurdles last season and now making his debut over fences. The 3 mile handicap chase here at14.45 should lie between the consistent Master Overseer (David Pipe/ Hadden Frost) and Skippers Lad (Colin and Joe Tizzard), while Isabel Tompsett, one of the best lady jockeys over jumps, can win the handicap hurdle at 15.15 on another consistent performer Sweet World for Bernard Llewellyn. David Pipe sends his main jockey Tom Scudamore to Leicester, where the fields are bigger but the quality lower, and they can take the handicap hurdle at 16.35 with last week´s very easy winner Quinte du Chatelet. Best rtace here is th novice hurdle at 15.35; the German-bred Kristallo has been in the money on both British starts but faces a stiff task here.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

3 Grade One races at Fairyhouse

The Irish authorities have acted with commendable speed in transferring last Sunday´s abandoned Fairyhouse fixture, featuring three Grade One races, to today. Star of the show will probably be Dunguib (Philip Fenton/ Mr BT O´Connell), already hot favourite for the novice hurdle at Cheltenham next March, who contests the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at 13.45. Dunguib has won both his hurdles starts in impressive style after an excellent campaign in bumpers last season.

He was disqualified (for failing a dope test) after winning at Punchstown, the only blot on his record, and this race awarded to Sweeps Hill (John Kiely/ Tony McCoy), who is as a result theoretically unbeaten. They meet at level weights today and it would be surprising if Dunguib cannot repeat his victory, this time we hope without any later problems. There should be a German-bred winner of the Hattons Grace Hurdle at 14.50, as Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) and Aitmatov (Noel Meade/ Barry Geraghty) stand out on all known form. Aitmatov´s owner died last week (he would not have run on Sunday), but he is expected to turn out today, however in our view Catch Me, who fell over fences last time, is the one to beat. The Drinmore Novice Chase at 14.20 is a very open race, but we expect Noel Meade´s pair Jered (McCoy) and Pandorama (Davy Condon) to take all the beating, though Pesoto (O´Grady/ McNamara) looks a big danger. Two more German-breds who might run well here ar e Manhattan Boy in the handicap chase at 13.15 and Ten Fires in the handicap hurdle at 15.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dooneys Gate - Dante Hall - Shazand
2. Race: Dunguib - Sweeps Hill - Some Present
3. Race: Pesoto - Alpha Ridge - Pandorama
4. Race: Catch Me - Aitmatov - Ninetieth Minute
5. Race: Give It Time - Shuil Aris - Here Comes Sally
6. Race: Lochan Lacha - Hoopy - Bigbiggerbiggest
7. Race: Arvika Ligeonniere - Al Ferof - Shuil Dearg

Ayr (N.H.), Catterick (N.H.) and Kempton (a.w.)

With the abandonment of Plumpton, there are only two meetings this afternoon in Britain - over jumps at Ayr and Catterick. The German-bred Wind Shuffle (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) could run well at a big price in the introductory hurdle at 13.20 CET at Ayr. he was tailed off on his only run over the sticks so far, but that was last year on fast ground; the soft going today will suit the son of Big Shuffle much better and he has been quite consistent on the flat this season. His jockey can follow up half an hour later with Ferdy Murphy´s Bedlam Boy in the novice chase, while later Nicky Richards and his jockey Brian Harding can also score a double, courtesy of Skippers Brig, top-weight in the handicap chase at 14.25, and Mister Marker in the handicap hurdle at 14.55. At Catterick, Kudu Country (Tom Tate/ Keith Mercer), impressive when winning on his debut, can follow up in the 3yo hurdle at 14.45, where Stormy Weather (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan) looks a big danger.

The latter´s team can in any case take the beginners chase at 15.45 with Fortysecond Street, an easy hurdles winner when last seen in April. Kempton´s evening meeting on the all-weather does not look very inviting, but Kieren Fallon can possibly land a short-priced double on Luca Cumani s Blue Lyric, in the 2yo handicap at 20.50, and Ed Dunlop´s Satwa Gold, in the 1 1/2 mile handicap half an hour later, both of them easy CD winners last time out.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Cagnes-sur-mer meeting opens

The winter meeting at Cagnes-sur-mer begins today, but whereas in previous years the races in December have always been over jumps, today´s 8 races are all on the flat. Main German interest will be in the conditions race over 2000 metres at 15.25, in which Pavel Vovcenko´s Lasse (Delphine Santiago) has been declared, as well as the ex-Peter Schiergen Thanatos. However the one to beat is clearly top-weight Bon Grain, who has been running in much better events.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hrysos Pringipas - Taniava - Owando
2. Race: Australian Speed - Deference - Chandrayaan
3. Race: Kandalek - Bryce - French Wisdom
4. Race: Lamire - May Line - N`Boy
5. Race: Sea of Grass - Family Story - Lanfranc
6. Race: Bon Grain - Thanatos - Chalsa
7. Race: Taraking - Armistice Day - Fitzgerald
8. Race: Danseuse Corse - Duc d`Alencon - Behrara

Hereford (N.H.), Southwell (N.H.) and Lingfield (a.w.)

There very low-grade meetings in the U.K. today. The jumps fixture at Hereford goes ahead after an early morning inspection, where the frost was not as bad as expected. We correctly tipped Nicky Henderson to win 4 races yesterday, and it could be the turn of Paul Nicholls to star here today. Ruby Walsh flies over to partner his 3 runners, debutant Opening Meet in the novice hurdle at 14.40 CET, Recif de Thaix in the beginners chase at 15.10 and Elevenses in the bumper at 16.40. At Southwell, where they race over jumps today, Mobaasher (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) is the most interesting runner when he contests the beginners chase over 3 miles at 13.50. This is his first attempt at fences, but he was easily the best of these over hurdles and was last seen running not at all badly in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Leac an Scail and Nom de Guerre were both runners-up in similar races recently and will make sure he is up to the task. The novice hurdle half an h our later probably lies between the two penalised runners, Chamirey (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and Lord Generous (AP Boxhall/ Tony McCoy), but with the King stable seemingly under a cloud, we select the "AP" runner. Charlie Mann has done well with his German imports and we expect Vacario to go well in the conditional jockeys novice hurdle at 15.20 with the talented Peter Toole in the saddle, though this is quite an open race.

At Lingfield, the best event is the class 4 mile handicap at 14.00 and top-weight Mr. Willis is a confident selection. John Best´s 3yo has won 3 of his 4 starts this year and is unbeaten in 4 races -all at this track -with Steve Drowne aboard. The Queen, who had a N.H. winner yesterday, can also score on the flat today with Banks and Braes (Richard Hannon/ Dane O´Neill), who has joint top-weight in the 2yo handicap at 14.20. The two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap at 13.30 and 15.30 can go to last time out CD winners Green Velvet and Ask Jenny respectively.