Tuesday, December 22, 2009

all-weather racing at Southwell

Today´s very low-key all-weather meeting at Southwell is now the only racing of the day. 4 of the 7 races are class 6 handicaps with quite large fields, but not very punter-friendly. Easily the best race is the class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs at 13.55 CET. This looks very tricky, and all of the 9 runners have possibilities. Ingleby Arch (David Barron/ Philip Makin) and Nightjar (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) are both course specialists.

When they met here in October the former came out on top, but the latter is now 6 lbs better off and may be able to turn the tables, especially as the distance is probably more suitable for him. Eisteddfod (Paul Cole/ George Baker) is the class act in this field, having plenty of good form in listed races to his credit, but has a huge weight, while the improving lightweights Imprimis Tagula and Snow Bay are in good form, but moving up in grade. The 1 mile 3 furlongs handicap at 15.55 should go to Profit´s Reality (Mike Attwater/ Adam Kirby), who usually runs well here, although the trip is on the short side, while Merrion Tíger (Tony Foster/ Greg Fairley) looks the best bet of the day in the staying handicap that closes the card at 16.25. All his 3 career victories have come over this CD and he won so easily last time that a 9 lbs penalty is unlikely to stop him from following up today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Master Leon - Secretive - Boy The Bell
2. Race: Nightjar - Ingleby Arch - Eisteddfod
3. Race: Thoughtsofstardom - Best One - First Swallow
4. Race: Pocket`s Pick - Metal Guru - Don Pele
5. Race: Sunny Spells - Holyfield Warrior - Jiggalong
6. Race: Full Toss - Profit`S Reality - Indy Driver
7. Race: Merrion Tiger - Dazzling Begum - Stormy Summer