Saturday, December 26, 2009

Kauto Star for fourth King George?

Easily the best racing of the day comes from Kempton, where the highlight is the King George VI Chase over 3 miles at 16.05 CET. All eyes here will be on Kauto Star (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who is attempting to win the race for the fourth successive year, a feat never before achieved. The great Desert Orchid won this race 4 times, but not in successive years, as he was beaten by the French raider Nupsala on one occasion, and also lost on his final run here. As a dual winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Kauto Star is already assured of his place in history, but a win today would place him among the all-time greats. We cannot see him being beaten now, even though he only just scrambled home last time at Haydock from Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan), who reopposes on the same terms. However the latter was well beaten here last year, and has never run to his best form on right-handed tracks; there is a theory that Kauto Star is also best going left-hande d (e.g. at Cheltenham) but his record in this race suggests that this cannot be a major problem, especially as his occasionally sticky jumping appears to have improved.

In our view the horses for minor places are Madison du Berlais (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Alberta´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) - runner-up at a respectable distance here last year- the much improved Deep Purple (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), and especially the Queen´s Barbers Shop (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who ran well for a long way last time in the Hennessy and should find this distance and track ideal. Obviously a win for the Queen in the race named after her father would be extremely popular, but even more so would be victory for the hot favourite Kauto Star,and we confidently expect this outcome.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bellvano - Menorah - King Olav
2. Race: Busker Royal - Lake Legend - Clova Island
3. Race: Long Run - Tazbar - Minella Theatre
4. Race: Binocular - Go Native - Starluck
5. Race: Kauto Star - Imperial Commander - Madison Du Berlais
6. Race: Nikos Extra - Wogan - Sheriff Hutton