Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Girolamo at Glorious Goodwood

German-trained horses have already won three group races in England this season - the best haul ever- and Girolamo (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) can make it four at 15.35 CET when he contests the Group Three Gordon Stakes on the first day of Glorious Goodwood. He was a close third in the German Derby a month ago, form given a big boost by Pastorius on Sunday, and is the highest-rated of the seven runners here. Five of the six British runners are entered in the St.Leger with Michelangelo (John Gosden( William Buick) and Frankel´s full brother Noble Mission (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) looking the main dangers.

As always, Goodwood has a great card for the opening day of its top fixture, and there are two more group fraces, the Lennox Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.10 and the Molecomb for speedy 2yo´s at 16.45. Richard Hannon normally dominates the 2yo races here but we prefer Morawij (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) and Jadanna (James Given/ Frankie Dettori) in the Molecomb, however we expect Hannon to take the Lennox with course specialist Libranno (Richard Hughes), who has Chachamaidee (Cecil/ Queally) and the 3yo Foxtrot Romeo (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) - runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas - to beat.

Hannon has 4 runners in the 2yo maiden at 17.15 and Hughes partners Millers Wharf, which is presumably the stable´s main hope. Hannon and Hughes also have a good chance of taking the opening 10 furlongs handicap at 15.00 with Cai Shen, but like all the handiaps here this has a big field and looks very tricky; we also expect top-weight Retrieve (Saeed bin Suroor) and bottom-weight Las Verglas Star (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) to run well here. In the mile handicap at 17.50 low numbers will probably be favoured, in which case we select Askaud (Scott Dixon/ Queally), who likes this track and is drawn 2,

Galway Festival: day two

Our suggestion to back all Dermot Weld runners blind at Galway certainly paid off yesterday, when he saddled 3 winners who all paid more than predicted. Today he only has runners in the last 5 races, but the same betting tactics should again be profitable. His runners are: 18.00 CET 2 mile handicap: Weld has won the last 3 runnings and saddles the 3yo filly Voleuse de Coeurs (Pat Smullen) who looks very dangerous in this wide open race off her light weight 18.35 mile handicap: this time he hass the top weight Rock Critic (Smullen), who has won here twice at the Festival and can score for the third time.

19.10 2yo maiden fillies, Big Break (Smullen) makes her debut here; she is an own sister to the stable´s great performer Famous Name; obvious danger is Magical Dream (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) 19.40 handicap, 7 furlongs (Smullen)- won at Dundalk last time, this looks much tougher, but trust in Weld 20.10 3yo maidens,7 furlongs,Storm Lightning (Smullen) no star, but recent run at Dundalk will have him right for this

Weld has no runners in the two races over jumps at the start of the card; Ruby Walsh can take both of these, with Zuzka for Willie Mullins at 17.00 and Devil´s Elbow for his father at 17.30.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Galway Festival starts today

The week-long Galway Festival starts today at the picturesque Ballybrit racecourse. This small town on the West coast of Ireland stages the most important summer meeting in the country and it is a huge sporting and social occasion. There is a simple way for punters to make a profit at the meeting - simply back all runners trained by Dermot Weld. All the top trainers are here - O´Brien, Oxx, Bolger et al - but Weld always targets this fixture and has a phenomenal record here. He has been the leading trainer at the meeting for the past 25 years (!!) and sent out 17 winners last year to beat his own record. He has runners in all 7 races today as follows: 17.00 CET (novice hurdle) Train of Thought (Ruby Walsh) faces some strong opposition here, but gets 10 lbs from the main danger, Gordon Elliott´s Discoteca (Davy Russell), who has won his last 4 races, and may be good enough 17.30 (handicap hurdle) Teach Nua (Paul Townend) has won at this meetimg both kon the flat and over hurdl es and despite inconsistent form should be back at his best today 18.00 (2yo maiden) Thunder Mountain (Pat Smullen) - the obvious danger here is Line Drummer (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) from the stable that has won the last 4 runnings but Weld´s charge has probably been prepared for this 18.35 (2 mile handicap for amateur riders) Midnight Music (Miss JM Mangan) up in distance but has also probably been laid out for this, top-weight Shadow Eile (Mrs D Love/ Mr CM Murphy) the danger 19.10 (3yo handicap, 7 furlongs) Fastidious (Smullen) same applies here, looks very well handicapped 19.40 (3yo handicap, 1 1/2 miles) Encrypted Message (Smullen) won in good style last time and can take this step up in class 20.10 ( 2 mile bumper) Silver Concorde (Robbie McManamara) beaten at odds-on when last seen in January, certain to be favourite again but looks a good thing here. We are not saying that all 7 will win, but they all have their chances and we shall be amazed if there not at leas t 2 - and probably more - winners here.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Group One races at Deauville and Munich

there is nothing much happening in British racing today, but there is high-class sport on the continent, with Group One races in France in Germany. The big Deauville summer meeting started yesterday and the first highlight is today´s Prix Rothschild for fillies over a mile at 14.30 CET. Only 5 runners but they are all well up to Group One standard. The German-owned Golden Lilac (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) is the likely favourite, despite her poor run in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, where Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick) finished well in front of her in second, but the ground that day was atrocious and the form must not be taken literally. However Elusive Kate, who won the Marcel Boussac last year on fast going, is an obvious threat. So is Sagawara (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire), winner of the Prix St. Alary, while Immortal Verse (Robert Collet/ Gerald Mossé makes her seasonal debut, but had good enough form last season, including a win in the Coronat ion Stakes. Mashoora (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Soumillon) is the only runner without a Group One win to her name, but has plenty of good form and definitely not out of it.
The Prix Cabourg at 14.00 is for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs; Mark Johnston and Ioritz Mendizabal teamed up to win a 2yo race here yesterday and can perhaps repeat this feat with Baileys Jubilee. From the German point of view the listed race over 3000 metres at 15.10 is the most interesting event, as there are 4 German-trained runners: Caudillo (Dr. Bolte/ Mendizabal), Flamingo Fantasy (Sascha Smrczek/ Stephane Pasquier) and two trained by Waldemar Hickst, Tres Rock Danon (Gerald Mossé), our selection, and Lacateno (Olivier Pesier)
Hickst himself will be in Munich to saddle Zazou (Andreas Suborics) in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis at 17.20, Germany´s most important ten furlongs race of the year. This has attracted a strong field, including 3 Derby winners, Waldpark (AndreasWöhler/ Eduardo Pedroza) and Pastorius (Mario Hofer/ Andrasch Starke), the last two Hamburg winners, and Feuerblitz (Michael Figge/ Rab Havlin) who took the Italian version in May. On balance we think that Zazou, who has been all over the world since last running in Germany, is strong enough to take this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Holy Dazzle - Tharsis - Dorinda
2. Race: Itri - Jolie Noce - Otou
3. Race: Pearl Flute - Wild Horse - Baileys Jubilee
4. Race: Golden Lilac - Elusive Kate - Golden Lilac
5. Race: Kalahari Gold - Unkept Rendez Vous - Ephemere
6. Race: Curro Perote - Golden Dreams - Chock Dee
7. Race: Caudillo - Tres Rock Danon - Inside Man
8. Race: Mr Doyen - Cat Princess - Flying Tomato
9. Race: Settebellezze - Lettre Intime - Amelia`S Surprise

3 meetings today

there is no racing in Ireland today and in the U.K. we have flat racing at Pontefract and Carlisle and jumping from Stratford.
The best event is the listed Pomfret Stakes over a mile at 16.50 CET at Pontefract. Set the Trend (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) is top-rated here. Previously trained by Andrew Balding he had some smart form at this distance, including a second place in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. He came back after a long break to run 6th at Ascot last week, so the bounce factor could be a problem. Balding himself sends Highland Knight, but of the older horses we rate more highly Prince of Johanne (Tom Tate/ John Fahy) is a top handicapper, winner of the Royal Hunt Cup recently and last year of the Cambridgeshire, and looks well up to normal listed standard. The 3yo´s look very strong here. Matrk Johnston- who had winners in 4 different tracks yesterday, runs Bannock (Franny Norton), who has been kept very busy. He has not won in 8 starts this year, but won 3 races at two, and with the stable form must be taken seriously. Riugged Cross (Henry Candy/ Fergus Sweeney), much more lightly r aced, last ran in the Derby! Obviously he had no chance there, and this distance is probably much more suitable. The filly Ladys First (Richard Fahey/ Pat Mathers) gets all the allowances and is also in with a chance. The z6 furllongs hamndovap here half an hour later looks wide lopen with 1z6 runnetrs. We hesitatingly select the only 3yo in the field Byronic Hero (Jedd O´Keeffe/ Topny Hamilton), whose only two career wins have come at this CD,
The Carlisle card is very poor and the best event here is a handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40. Once again we go for the only 3yo in the field Star Date (Ger Butler/ Luke Harris), a son of Galileo. The main dangers are Dark Dune (Tim Easterby/ David Allan), from another stable in red-hot form, and New Hampshire (Tony Coyle/ Lee Topliss), who is in good form but moving up in trip.
The N.H. card at Stratford is of little interest, although we are curious to see how the one-time German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Aidan Coleman) gets on in the novices handicap chase at 18.00. He has won 4 races this year, two on the flat and two over hurdles, which he jumps very well, but this his his first try in this sphere.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Black Truffle - Moviesta - Shillito
2. Race: Mr Snoozy - Fleeting Fashion - Ela Gonda Mou
3. Race: Honoured - Circle Of Angels - Master Of Song
4. Race: Ladys First - Rugged Cross - Set The Trend
5. Race: Johannes - My Kingdom - Trade Secret
6. Race: Eltifaat - Isatis - Hummingbird
7. Race: Belinsky - Kyllachy Dancer - Gottcher

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Ascot today

Ascot has a decent card today, but it could be spoilt by a large number of non-runners, possibly because of the firming ground. There are two non-runners in the main event, the Princess Margaret Stakes, a Group Three for 2yo fillies at 16.25 CET, so only 6 go to post. Maureen (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is the clear favourite here; she looked very unlucky when runner-up in the Cherry Hinton Stakes last time and gain recompense now.
The rest of the card consists of 6 handicaps, some of them well below normal Ascot standards. Richard Hannon´s 2yo´s are firing on all fronts, and he can take the opening nursery with top-weight Rebel Magic (Hughes); he is moving up in trip, as is Mrs Warren (Charlie Hills/ William Carson), who could be the main danger, although the unbeaten Redressthebalance (Ralph Beckett/ Jack Doyle) is another interesting contender.
The 5 furlongs handicap at 15.55 looks wide open, and Medicean Man (Jeremy Gask/ Raul da Silva) who won it last year goes on our short list. However we are less keen on David Barron´s pair Waffle (Fran Berry), who has twice been runner-up in the Wokingham but is possibly better at 6 furlongs, and Bosun Breeze (Graham Gibbons), who has won 4 races this year, all over this trip, but looks handicapped to the hilt. More dangerous in our opinion are the very speedy 3yo Es Que Love (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and Desert Law (Andrew Balding/ Richard Hughes), who like several of these was well beaten in the Wokingham, but had previously been runner-up in the big 5 furlongs Dash at Epsom on Derby Day.
From the German point of view, the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.55 is very interesting, as no fewer than 3 ex-Germans were entered. Unfortunately the one we most fancied, Lyssio, does not run, but we still like Toughness Danon (Brendan Powell/ Fran Berry) and Amoya (Charlie McBride/ Raul da Silva). Toughness Danon was 3rd in the German Derby in 2009, and although his British form is not that great - including over hurdles - he is thrown in here on his old form; Amoya, out of a German Oaks winner, also appears well handicapped and wethink that they are both worth a small each-way bet at the likely long odds.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rebel Magic - Redressthebalance - Mrs Warren
2. Race: John Louis - Fiery Lad - Scatter Dice
3. Race: Waffle - Bosun Breese - Taajub
4. Race: Maureen - Hoyam - Mironica
5. Race: John Biscuit - Robin Hoods Bay - Indian Jack
6. Race: Diala - Estrela - Laverre
7. Race: Gaul Wood - Corporal Maddox - Mingun Bell

York Stakes today

the Group Two York Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.10 CET is the main race today and the feature of a strong card at York (where else?) This looks a very open affair with qurestion marks over most of the runners, some of whom have been running without success in the top Group One races, while others are moving up in grade after showing good form in listed races, such as Asfare (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Jet Away (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally). We like the latter whose poor run behind Brown Panther on very soft ground can be excused and he should be much better suited by the faster going here. Others who should like this ground are Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker), who had no chance against Frankel at Royal Ascot, where Side Glance (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) was third, and Sri Putra (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), whose stable is coming into form and who is equipped with a pacemaker here. Two more who ran at the Royal meeting are Planteur (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) and Wigmore Hall (Michael Bell/ Graham Lee), both unplaced behind So You Think in the Prince of Wales´s; at their best they are both proper Group One horses, who should not be underestimated and we should certainly not forget Planteur´s excellent 3yo form in France. All things considered however, we shall go for Premio Loco, a horse we have always liked since his smart performances in Baden-Baden and Cologne in 2009. Those races were at a mile and he has never in fact won on turf over today´s distance, but his victory in the Winter Derby shows that he gets it. We like his very shrewd trainer and also his jockey, the most underrated in our opinion in the U.K. He needs fast going and a fast pace and it looks as if he will get both today and everything seems to be in his favour.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hippy Hippy Shake - Anjaz - Popular
2. Race: Dimension - Haamaat - Quick Wit
3. Race: Afsare - Planteur - Jet Away
4. Race: Head Space - Colonel Mak - Klynch
5. Race: Ajmany - Burning Blaze - Bachotheque
6. Race: Bilidn - Rosairlie - Dazinski
7. Race: Dutch Masterpiece - Blue Lotus - Our Diane

Friday, July 27, 2012

Listed races at Ascot and York

Another busy weekend lies ahead of us and there are unlikely to be any abandonments this time as the weather has changed completely; it has been warm and sunny all week and any non-runners today are likely to be because the going is now getting firm everywhere. Sheikh Hamdan has runners all over today and can start by winning the first two races at Ascot, bióh 2yo events, with Fleeting Smile/ Tagdh O´Dhea) at 15.20 CET and Sharaafah (Ed Dunlop/ O`Shea) at 15.55. His main jockey Paul Hanagan is riding this afternoon at Thirsk and this evening at York. He can win the maiden race at 18.00 at the former track on Charlie Hills´ Qannas for his boss. Back at Ascot, the 2 mile handicap at 17.05 looks interesting and features the most improved handicapper of the season, the Tiger Hill filly Bilidn (Noel Quinlan/ Chris Catlin), who has risen 34 lbs in the weights after winning 5 races in succession and he was only just touched off last week at Ffos Las under his new rating. He should g o close again, but we are not sure that he can give more than a stone to the only 3yo in the field Montaser (David Simcock/ Franny Norton); he is stepping up in trip but runs as if this distance will suit him.

Main event at Ascot is the listed mile race for fillies at 16.30. Some prominent owners are represented here, and in our view the likely winner is Beatrice Aurora (John Dunlop/ William Buick) owned and bred by Benny Andersson of ABBA fame. Opposition comes from Thistle Bird (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle), owned by Lady Rothschild, who is not a good a singer but more successful as a breeder, with Group One winners Nathaniel and Great Heavens to her credit this month. The Queen also has a runner here, Free Verse (Richard Hannon/ Kieren O´Neill), who won a handicap at Newmarket last time, but faces much stronger opponents this time.

If the Queen is to have a winner today, it is more likely to be at 20.30 at York this evening, in another listed race for fillies, this time over 10 furlongs. Her runner Momentary (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) ran inexplicably badly last time at Royal Ascot, but her earlier form gives her an excellent chance. She clearly holds Hamdan´s Firdaws (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) and the main dangers would appear to be the consistent Barefoot Lady (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) and Mid Mon Lady (Sir Mark Prescott/ Tom Eaves).

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

5 U.K. meetings today

the 5 meetings in the U.K. today nothing to get excited about. The Go Racing in Yorkshire Festival continues with a low grade card at Catterick. The best race here is the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.30 CET, in which Almond Branches (George Moore/ Peter McDonald) attempts to follow up her easy CD win last week under a penalty. Nomoreblondes (Paul Midgley/ Lee McNiff) is another CD specialist, but has not run since winning here twice in May and seems high in the weights now. Our choice is Jamesway, having his first race for Ruth Carr with James Sullivan in the saddle; previously with Richard Fahey, he has some quite decent form in better company to his credit.
Another CD specialist - indeed probably the greatest of them all - is 8yo Chjimes (Conor Dore/ Hayley Turner) at Lingfield. Since winning first time out at Nottingham 6 years ago, all his 13 wins have been at this track, usually over today´s distance of 6 furlongs, Although Ghost Train (Mark Johnston/ Ryan Moore) is the likely favourite today at 18.10 after running a good race here last week, we shall go for Chjimes. Also at Lingfield we hope to see sons of Monsun win both divisions of the 1 1/2 miles maiden, Mashaari (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) at 16.10, and City of Canton (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) half an hour later.
Barney Curley had a winner yesterday, so we should perhaps start paying attention to his runners; he has two German-breds on the track today, Eye of the Tiger (Tom Queally) in a 1 3/4 miles handicap at 21.40 at Sandown, and Steuben (Micky Fenton) 20 minutes earlier at Leicester. Neither has shown any worthwhile form since arriving from the Jens Hirschberger stable, but that does not mean much, and Eye of the Tiger, who - don´t forget- won the Gerling-Preis in 2010!- is now on such a lenient mark that he seems bound to win at some stage.
A German-bred running at Worcester´s N.H.meeting is Goldmädchen (Philip Hobbs/ Mr.T.Cheeseman) in the handicap hurdle at 16.20. Like Barney´s runners, she has been beaten out of sight on all her British starts, but is also on a nice weight and the opposition here looks very weak.

Betting forecast Catterick:
1. Race: Grievous Angel - Panama Cat - Flighty Clarets
2. Race: Tricky Madam - Juana Belen - Bear Totem
3. Race: Relight My Fire - Charlie Em - Sandy`s Row
4. Race: Almond Branches - Nomoreblondes - Jamesway
5. Race: Besty - Sir Windsorlot - Boy The Bell
6. Race: Dunmore Boy - Drumpellier - Dotty Darroch
7. Race: Foxy Music - Partner - Crimea
8. Race: Tinseltown - Operateur - Amir Pasha

listed race at Naas

once again the best race of the day is a listed race at an Irish evening meeting, this time at Naas, where the Sweet Mimosa Stakes for fillies over 6 furlongs will be run at 20.25 CET. Last year´s winner Katla (JF Grogan/ WillieLee) lines up again, but we cannot fancy her to give weight away all round. Aidan O´Brien continues in almost unstoppable form, but we are not so keen on his two runners Empowering (with son Joseph in the saddle) and After (Seamus Heffernan), who have both had plenty of chances. Lady Wingshot (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is very interesting on her seasonal debut, having run some good races last year, but the clear form choice is Fire Lily (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), who had no chance last time in the July Cup, but whose previous Group Three victory in the Ballyogan Stakes gives her an obvious chance in this company. The O´Brien´s should not go home empty-handed, as we expect Learn to win the conditions race at 20.55, while for those prepared to stay to the bitter end, we like Prince Jock (Pat Shanahan/ Colm O´Donoghue) in the last race, a mile handicap at 22.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spinacre - Rapid Approach - Lady Gosford
2. Race: Stones Peak - Calm Bay - Red Sea Poll
3. Race: Regal Power - Flying Doha - Dynamite Dixie
4. Race: Fire Lily - After - Lady Wingshot
5. Race: Tenth Star - Learn - Taameer
6. Race: Confident Cub - Morethanafeeling - Cinnin Oir
7. Race: Brog Deas - Man Of Erin - Miracle Cure

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

3 N.H. meetings today

The remaining 6 cards are less exciting, and three meetings stage jumps racing. In ireland there is an all-hurdles card at Ballinrobe, and if the going is still heavy, we suggest a small each-way bet at 21.25 CET on German-bred Muskatsturm, who is 13 years old but still good enough in this grade and a CD winner this year. In the U.K., Nicky Henderson could have winners at both Southwell this afternoon and Bangor this evening. At the latter meeting he saddles Forgotten Voice (Tony McCoy) in the novice hurdle at 21.45. The 7yo has been off the track for two years, but he was a Royal Ascot winner on the flat and also group-placed. He used to be trained by Jeremy Noseda, as was Sud Pacifique (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who looks another nice hurdling prospect and is the main danger.

At Southwell, Henderson runs Dubai Crest (David Bass) under top weight oin the handicap hurdle at 17.10 and debutant Cevaro (Andrew Tinkler) in the bumper an hour later, and both should go nwell. The McCain/ Maguire team are also strongly represented here, and Cuban Piece at 16.10 and Mulligans Man at 16.40 could both complete a summer hat-trick.

The flat tracing in the U.K. today is all at a vetry low level, and there are some very small fields at Ffos Las. The moist interesting event could be the maiden race for fillies at 15.50 at Yarmouth, with entries from some top stables, such as If So (James Fanshawe/ Mikael Barzalona), Ihtifal (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) or Palmette (John Gosden/ William Buick), all of whom have shown form which suggests that they will not stay maidens for long. The Godolphin filly is our tentative suggestion.

Once again there are plenty of non-runners and punters are advised to check before placing their bets.

Listed race at Tipperary

Seven meetings today in the U.K. and Ireland, with the best race the listed Tipperery Stakes for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.35 CET. Two of the 7 runners are still unbeaten, Blue Bullet (Willie Mullins/ Gary Carroll) and Zoola (Andrew Heffernan/ Johnny Murtagh), but they are meeting better opposition here, notably Parliament Square (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), an easy winner at Fairyhouse last time and earlier a good 5th of 23 at Royal Ascot.However Dylanbaru (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan) finished in front of him at Ascot and is a big danger here. The O´Brien´s can also take the fillies maiden over 1 1/2 miles half an hour later with the very well-bred Purple, who has Jim Bolger´s Teofolina (Kevin Manning) to beat. The 2yo maiden at 17.05 also looks a match between Bolger and O´Brien, with the former saddling Leitir Mor (Manning), runner-up already four times and also not disgraced at Ascot, while O´Brien has two runners, with Joseph riding The Ferryman, who made a good debut la st week at Dundalk when runner-up to stable-companion Mars, reckoned to be the stable´s top juvenile and already favourite for next year´s Derby.

Monday, July 23, 2012

6 meetings today

After the excitements of the weekend, today´s 6 meetings offer only low grade stuff. There is an additional all-weather fixture at Southwell to make up for all the days lost to the weather this month, but the card is pretty dreadful. An interesting runner here is ex-German Allanit (Barney Curley/ Daragh O´Donohoe) in the mile handicap at 17.20 CET, but his U.K. form is awful - however he has now been dropped to a very favourable handicap rating.

The 1 1/2 mile handicap at 15.40 sees Kingaroo (Greg Woodward/ Luke Morris) and Bring Sweets (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) in opposition again, Last week they were first and second here with the third horse lengths back. Kingaroo won that by a head, but Bring Sweets is now 9 lbs better off so in theory should turn the tables. However Kingaroo is in such good form and has such an excellent record here that he could easily score again.

Luke Morris moves north to Yorkshire for the evening meeting at Beverley and can take the 2 mile handicap for 3yo maidens at 21.30 with Sir Mark Prescott´s Solar View. He is probably the slowest horse in the yard, but can still beat this lot of no-hopers.

Charlie Hills - son of Barry - has his stable in good form and sends just one horse to Scotland today, One Word More, ridden by William Carson - grandson of Willie- in the 2yo maiden at 15.00. He has twice been runner-up in probably much better company at Newbury and should certainly win this time, but will be at a very short price. More lucrative bets could be Master of Dance (Keith Dalgleish/ Lee McNiff) and Royal Straight (Linda Perrett/ Shane B.Kelly), who have top weight in the handicaps at 16.05 and 17.10 respectively.

At Cartmel over jumps, we prefer to go with the bottom weights - More Equity (Dianne Sayer/ Ryan Mania) over 2 3/4 miles at 17.30 and the much improved Riskier (John Wade/ Brian Hughes) over shorter at 18.05.

At Windsor we like Furbelow (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) in the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 21.10. This well-bred filly with the strange name looked very decent when winning a Kempton maiden in April and her last race can be ignored as her saddle slipped. She can get back on the winning trail today.

In Ireland there is a mixed meeting at Ballinrobe, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles. Most of them are for maidens with large fields of little quality. Tepalo (Tony Martin/ Ruby Walsh) has been runner-up on both his hurdles starts and can make it third time lucky at 21.50.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Irish Oaks at the Curragh

Although Ascot´s July meeting continues today, the main action is at the Curragh, where there are 3 group races, headed by the Irish Oaks at 16.20 CET. Aidan O´Brien saddles 3 of the 7 runners, with Was (son Joresph in the saddle) clearly the best of them. She won the Oaks at Epsom last time, beating Shirocco Star (Hughie Morrison/ Johnny Murtagh), but the latter as staying kion sztromngly and must fancy her chance of frevenmge on this stiffer track. However the one to beat is clearly Princess Highway (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who has beaten them both this season and was especially impressive when taking the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot by 6 lengths. Great Heavens (John Gosden/ William Buick) is on a steep upward curve and has won all her 3 starts this season; her stable is in great form, with her brother Nathaniel just failing against Danedream yesterday, but for our money Princess Highway is the best 3yo filly in Europe over this trip and we expect her to win. It would be an emotional success, as Walter Haefner, founder of the Moyglare Stud who bred and own her, died recently and the memorial service was held for him just two days ago.

She could be completing a double for Weld and Smullen as we also expect Caponata to win the filles Group Three over 9 furlongs at 15.10. She has won both her starts in excellent style and looks as if she is really going places. Up (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is the obvious danger, having finished second in the French 1,000 Guineas.

Even if the O´Brien´s do not win these two races, they should not leave the course empty-handed, as Cristoforo Colombo looks a good thing to win the Angesey Stakes at 15.45. He was third in the Coventry and runner-up in the Railway Stakes, form which is far superior to anything the other 5 runners can offer.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Ascot July meeting

The Ascot July meeting starts today, and while the best races will be run tomorrow, today´s card of two races for 2yo´s and 5 handicaps is better than average for a Friday. The best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.55 CET and even with 2 non-runners this is still a wide open race. Mac´s Power (James Fanshawe/ Ryan Moore) was 13th of 28 in the Wokingham at the Royal meeting, but only beaten about 4 lengths.

This form must have him a good chance now, especially as he is drawn on the stands side rail, which is likely (though not certain!) to be a big advantage. Shropshire (Charlie Hills/ Matthew Lawson) was runner-up last time at Windsor and he is also in with good prospects. We also like bottom weight Elna Bright (Peter Crate/ Jimmy Quinn), at 7 the oldest horse in the field, but who likes it here and is a CD winner.

35 minutes later there is another 6 furlongs handicap with 19 runners, which looks even trickier, but again we like an oldtimer with a stands side draw- 10yo Beckermet (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald). Poole Harbour (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is going for a hat-trick here, but meets better opposition this time, while the lightly-.raced Ladyship (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) could well be a blot on the handicap, but is drawn on the far side. Of course this might be better, but we won´t know until after the race!

Ruth Carr and Peter Mcdonald could well foillow up with Dubai Dynamo, top-weight in the mile handicap at 18.05, who is penalised just 6 lbs for a very easy win at Ayr on Monday. The 2 mile handicap at 16.20 is another open race, in which several of the runners are moving up in trip while some of the others have been running over hurdles. We will take a chance on another top weight, Classic Vintage (Amanda Perrett/ Jim Crowley), who is up in trip and down in grade and whose stable is now comking into form.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Listed race at Hamilton

Even without Leicester - abandoned as the track is still waterlogged - there are 5 meetings in the U.K. which seems plenty enough. The quality is nowhere near as good as it is at the Irish cards today, but the Scottish track at Hamilton stages a listed race for 3yo s over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 17.00, which has attracted quite a strong field.´Quite a few of the 8 runners ran at Royal Ascot, where Ed De Gas (Rae Guest/ Chris Catlin) was third in the Queens Vase and Fennell Bay (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) won a valuable handicap; seventh in that race was Sparkling Portait (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), but he had a very unlucky run and now meets Fennell Bay on 8 lbs better terms, so we expect him to turn the tables now. Naseem Alyasmeen (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) was second in the Bahrain Tropy at Newmarket last week, but the one they all have to beat is the very well-bred filly Albamara (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris).

The other U.K. races are of minor interest., but we expect Woolston Ferry (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) to complete a four-timer at 20.05 at Bath, as he still seems very well handicapped and won over this CD last time after previously being

regarded as an all-weather specialist. It is unusual to find a Godolphin runner in a class 4 handicap, but that is the case at Epsom at 20.45 this evening and we think that Tamarrud (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) could be good enough to take this modest event under top weight.

group race this evening in Ireland

Best race of the day in the U,.K., and Ireland is this evening´s Group Three Silver Flash Stakes for 2yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 19.45 CET at Leopardstown. Aidan O´Brien has won this for the past 3 seasons, including last year with the top-class Maybe, but we will be surprised of his sole runner today Snow Queen, with son Joseph i n the saddle, is good enough, as she was well beaten on her debut and faces strong opposition from True Verdict (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), runner-up on all 3 starts so far and also Coolmore-owned, and the 3 unbeaten fillies Harasiya (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh), Rawaaq (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Roseraie (Kevin Prendergast/ Chris Hayes). It is hard to choose between them, but we have a slight preference for Harasiya, as the Aga Khan´s filly was quite impressive on her debut over this CD.

Main supporting feature here is the listed race over 1 3/4 miles at 21.55. Aidan O´Brien has 2 of the 6 runners here, Betterbetterbetter (Colm O´Donoghue) and Demurely (David McCabe), both 3yo fillies also entered in Sunday´s Irish Oaks,while Jessica Harrington also has 2 runners Bob le Beau (Kevin Manning) and Steps to Freedom (Fran Berry), but we prefer Galileo´s Chooice (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who won a Group Three here over 10 furlongs last year; in typical Weld fashion, he is also a smart hurdler and last ran at the Cheltenham Festival. He is probably being aimed at one of the top events at the Galway Festival in a foirtnight´s time, but can take this en route to the Ballybrit.

Another race of interest is the 2yo maiden over a mile - one of the first of the year over this trip- at 19.25. The O´Brien´s took this last year with Camelot so their runner Nevis must be treated with the greatest respect. He was only 4th on his debut - and behind Mister Aviation (Tommy Stack/ Lordan) who is in the line-up again, but that was on dreadfiul ground and he is now expected to show dramatic improvement.

Also in Ireland today we have the fourth and final day of the Killarney meeting with another mixed card, 3 flat races, 3 over hurdles and a bumper. The hurdles races are the most interesting events and we expect the very promising Thomas Edison (Tony Martin/ Mark Walsh) to win the novice hurdle at 16.55, while Zerashan (Dessie Hughes/ Davy Russell), a very easy winner at Downpatrick last week, can follow up under a penalty in the handicap hurdle an hour later.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Godolphin runners at Lingfield

Godolphin are making a strong challenge at today´s all-weather meeting at Lingfield with runners in 4 races. The debutants Royal Empire and Albayan, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Mikael Barzalona, run in the two divisions of the maiden race over a mile that open the card at 15.00 CET and half an hour later. Both are well-bred and could win at the first time of asking, though they face some runners that have already shown decent form, such as Gestüt Ammerland´s Ukrainian Princess (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) in the first division and Niger (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) in the second. They both finished runner-up last time and gave clear indication that they will not remain maidens for long. Later the rapidly improving Silent Moment (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), carrying a 6 lbs penalty for a very easy win at Kempton last week, is the likely favourite for the handicap over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 17.00, where one of his opponents is Kirstin Rausing´s filly Albaraka (Sir Mark Prescott /Luke Morris, last seen finishing down the field at Hamburg. Finally Mahmood al Zarooni has two runners in the 2yo maiden at 17.30 - the debutant Ghostflower (Barzalona) and Sugar House (Ahmed Ajtebi), who has already shown some fair form.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, but as is normal for a Tuesday, all at a very low level. With more rain on the way there could be some racedays lost later in the week, but all today´s fixtures look safe so far. At Beverley, the mile handicap at 16.30 CET looks quite open. Lochantanks (much better terms and may be able to Mike Appleby/ Luke Morris) and Save the Bees (Declan Carroll/ Daniel Tudhope) are both in good form but win very rarely - indeed the former has never won at all on turf. We therefore prefer Moheebb (Ruth Carr/ Peter Mcdonald), whose stable is in good form and usually runs well here. Half an hour later there is a handicap over 2 miles, in which last year´s winner Mojolika (Tim Easterby/ Graham Gibbons), from another hot trainer,. is the likely favourite. However Markington (Tony Honeyball/ Paul Mulrennan), runner-up a year ago and winner here in 2010, meets him now on much better terms and can reverse the form.

The ground will be very testing at Ffos Las, where there are some small fields. Bilidn (Noel Quinlan/ Chris Catlin) has won his last 5 races, but has gone up a massive 34 lbs in the weights; we are not sure he can win under top weight in the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 17.15, especially on this going. The interesting runner here is Asker (Marcus Tregoning/ Katia Scallan), unbeaten after winning a bumper and thern a maiden race at Chepstow on heavy ground. Another one who goes well in the heavy is bottom weight Hamilton Hill (Dai Burchell/ David Probert), but Asker may well be much better than his handicap rating and can remain unbeaten.

The standard is no better at the evening meetings, although the 10 furlongs handicap at 21.20 at Yarmouth looks quite interesting, with some possible 3yo improvers engaged, such as Marine Girl (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Future Security (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona), who has not run since October. Spirit of the Law (Ed Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan) and Twelve Strings (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) are more exposed 3yo´s but in good form, while the 5yo Amoya (Charlie McBride/ M.Mimmocchi) is out of a German Oaks winner and could run well at a big price.

At Southwell, the 7 furlongs handicap at 20.30 is the best race. If all 8 run, then bottom weight Eastern Hills (Alan McCabe/ Graham Lee) could be a good each-way bet; his recent form is uninspiring, but he is a CD specialist and very well handicapped in his best form. The Killarney meeting continues in Ireland, once again with a mixed card. Willie Mullins is in good form and can land a double with Drive Time (Paddy Mullins) on the flat at 20.10 and Sin Palo (Ruby Walsh) over fences half an hour later.

Monday, July 16, 2012

Next O´Brien Derby winner?

It appears that all 6 meetings will go ahead today, three of them in any case on the all-weather. The standard is mainly low, but there are two highly interesting races for 2yo maidens at Dundalk, where an additional fixture has been arranged to make up for all the lost racedays of the last few weeks. Aidan O´Brien has 3 runners in both races, over 6 furlongs at 14.25 CET and over 7 an hour later, and all bred in the purple.

It can probably be asssumed that son Joseph is partnering the stable´s main hopes, in which case George Vancouver, twice a beaten favourite on heavy ground, might win the opener. However the really interesting runner is Mars, who makes his debut in the 7 furlongs race; he is needless to say a son of Galileo and has already been well backed for the 2013 Derby, and is indeed favourite in many ante-post lists. He is therefore likely to start a hot favourite today and is not an attractive betting proposition, but should certainly be watched. Among the opposition is a half-sister to German Derby winner Dai Jin, Estinaad (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonogh). The rest of the card is very modest, but Go On Murt (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry), who won here on Thursday, can follow up under a penalty in the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.55.

The two British all-weather meetings, at Southwell in the afternoon and Wolverhampton are, to be honest, not worth a second glance, with all races class 5 or 6, but there is an interesting mile handicap at 17.05 at Ayr. The only 3yo in the field, Indepub (Kevin Ryan/ Julie Burke), owned by ex-trainer David Barker, made all to win at Newcastle a fortnight ago and can win again under bottom weight; the dangers are the 3 top-welghts, and in view of the excellent stable form we choose Extraterrestrial (Richard Fahey/ Shane B. Kelly), who is on a long losing run but has been dropped in the weights.

At Windsor this evening, Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can take the final two handicaps at 21.10 and 21.40 with the lightly-raced but well-bred 3yo fillies Keene Dancer and Minoan Dancer.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Ireland today

The going will be very heavy at Fairyhouse today, which stages the only flat racing in Britain and Ireland. The card is very poor for a Sunday, with a listed race over 6 furlongs at 16.05 CET the main event. After (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) was third at Naas on Wednesday and had some good form earlier, notably a fourth place in the French 1,000 Guineas. However we prefer the lightly-raced Slade Power (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan), who has been first or second on all his starts and seems to have more scope for improvement.

Fairyhouse - betting forecast:
1. Race: More Questions - Monakova - Brady`s Hill
2. Race: Slade Power - After - Gordon Lord Byron
3. Race: Faleena - Olfa - Footprint
4. Race: Encrypted Message - Regal Power - Unanimous
5. Race: Blue Corner - Amira`s Prince - Warwick Avenue
6. Race: Curl Cat - First Friday - Akram
7. Race: Hay Point - Chicago - Comedic Art



There are some big fields at Sligo, but very little of interest even so. Willie Mullins, who has an amazing strike rate with his summer runners, can land a double with Passage Vendome (Emmet Mullins) in the novice hurdle at 15.55 and Zuzka (Ruby Walsh) in the mares maiden hurdle an hour later. Ruby also partners Summer Star for his father Ted, whio looks the main danger to Passage Vendome.

Sligo - betting forecast:
1. Race: Liberty`S Gift - Westhaven - Face Value
2. Race: Passage Vendome - Echo Bob - Summer Star
3. Race: Our Nana Rose - Tribes And Banner - Mount Welcome
4. Race: Some Fiddle - Daisyanabelle - Music On D Waters
5. Race: Taken Twice - High Talk - Frankie Flowers
6. Race: Muskatsturm - Yachvili - Bracken House
7. Race: Bondage - Irish Poli - Black Rock Lake
8. Race: Take Out The Pin - Mr Carson - George Fernbeck

2 jumps meetings today

Ridiculous race planning calls for only NH racing today in the U.K. after 6 flat meetings yesterday, and with Perth abandoned (waterlogged), we are left with just Stratford and Southwell. The most interesting race of the day is the handicap hurdle at 16.20 CET at Stratford, which includes several smart ex-flat horses, such as Aviso (David Evans/ Aidan Coleman), who won the German 2,000 Guineas, Enroller (Willie Muir/ Paddy Brennan), a group winner, and Dubawi Phantom (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan), runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Fashionable Gal (Neil King/ Tom Whelan), was nowhere as good as these on the flat, although she is a daughter of Galileo, but has taken well to hurdles and was an easy CD winner 12 days ago. This could be quite tricky, but we prefer Dubawi Phantom, whose trainer has an exellent strike rate over hurdles, and who won in good style at Hereford 3 weeks ago after a 7 months break. The handicap chase , also lover 2 miles, half an hour later a lso looks open, even though there are only 5 runners. Passato, a son of Lando, has won on the flat twice this summer and can defy a big weight.

Stratford - betting forecast:
1. Race: Traditional Bob - Grand Lahou - Dorset Naga
2. Race: Airmen`S Friend - Forty Five - Gambo
3. Race: Smalib Monterg - Dubawi Phantom - Fashionable Gal
4. Race: Nobunaga - Passato - Tempting Paradise
5. Race: Snowed In - Foster`s Road - King`s Wharf
6. Race: Lidjo De Rouge - Daneva - Bloodyburn Bay
7. Race: Bobowen - Catch The Fire - Free Falling



There are quite big fields at Southwell, but very little in the way of quality. The handicap chase for conditional jockeys at 15.40 looks wide open. Young Brendan Powell is going places and rode a winner for the Queen on the flat at the Newmarket July meeting. He could win this on the ex-German Speedy Directa, trained by his father, although the consistent Morenito (Tom George/ Gerald Quinn) and course specialist Gingers Lad (Mick Easterby/ Jake Greenall) both look very dangerous. Our best bet here is Safe Investment (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) in the handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 17.40, a race he won last year. He has not won since, but has been mainly running over fences, and a return to the sticks could see him back in the winners circle.

Southwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Shoegazer - Red Not Blue - Danimix
2. Race: Le Grand Chene - The Lemonpie - The Grey One
3. Race: Avanos - Ballybough Gorta - Ginger`S Lad
4. Race: Railway Rico - Molaise Lad - Isabelle B
5. Race: Robbie - Prankster - Lukeys Luck
6. Race: Billy Blade - Easter Lad - Benmadigan
7. Race: Spate River - Kapdor - Stop The Show
8. Race: Springinherstep - Molly Oscar - Comingthrotherye

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Newbury today

There is also a good card at Newbury, where the valuable Weatherbys Super Sprizt for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 16.50 CET is the main event. With 24 runners spread right across the track on heavy ground this is a lottery. Richard Hannon has a great record here, but with his main jockeys Hughes and Moore at Nrewmarket, he has booked Sean Levey to partner Lýric Ace and Darryll Holland for Ceelo, but the clear form choice is Hototo (Kevin Ryan/ Phbillip Makin), who has won his last 2 races, including the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot.

The Group Three Hackwood Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.10 is another open race. Maarek (David Nagle/ Collm O´Donoghue) and Regal Parade (Milton Bradley/ William Carson) are both well suited by heavy ground, but the one to beat here is surely Godolphin´s Soul (Saeed bin Suroor/Silvestre de Sousa), who was 4th in the Diamond Jubilee last time out. On this ground we also like Poet (Clive Cox/ Eddie Ahern) in the listed race over 10 furlongs at 17.20. His front-running style means that he often sets things up for a late closer, but there appears to be nothing in this field good enough to overhaul him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Strictly Ballroom - Rising Legend - Shrewd
2. Race: Mugazala - Epernay - Russian Rave
3. Race: Soul - Maarek - Firebeam
4. Race: Hototo - Body And Soul - Pay Freeze
5. Race: Expense Claim - Retrieve - Qaraaba
6. Race: Producer - Arnold Lane - Silverheels
7. Race: Sansili - Sunny Future - Blazing Field

Dominik Moser again at York?

Dominik Moser pulled off quite a coup with Gracia Directa yesterday at York and now tries again with Josephine Blanche (Liam Keniry) in the listed race over 5 furlongs at 16.35 CET. Her form was given a boost by her stable companion yesterday, to whom she was third last time at Hoppegarten, but this opposition looks far stronger and this could well be a group race. Indeed Masamah (Kevin Ryan/ Kieren Fallon), who won this last year, and Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Neil Callan) both ran in last year´s Prix de l´Abbaye. Caledonian Lady (Jo Hughes/ Hayley Turner) won a Group Three over this trip at Sandown last week and looks a big threat, while the speedy Hamish McGonagall (Tom Easterby/ David Allan), third last ysar and from an in-form stable, is another danger. We would like to see Josephine Blanche run well, but she needs to show tremendous improvement to figure here.

The big race here is the John Smith´ s Cup, a 10 furlongs handicap at 16.00. With 20 runners this looks very difficult, but lightly-raced Mijhaar (Roger Varian( Neil Callan) is a clear favourite after his good performance at Royal Ascot. Others to consider are Mid Mon Lady (Sir Mark Prescott/ Tom Eaves), who runs here in preference to a listed race in Germany, Area Fifty One (Richard Fahey/ Shane B. Kelly) and Media Hype (Elaine Burke/ Graham Gibbons). Prince of Johanne (Tom Tate/ Adam Beschizza) won the Royal Hunt Cup last time, but we are not sure he will get the extra diusdtance today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ginger Jack - Anderiego - Toto Skyllachy
2. Race: Suraj - High Jinx - Mount Athos
3. Race: Mijhaar - Area Fifty One - Media Hype
4. Race: Hamish Mcgonagall - Masamah - Stepper Point
5. Race: Garswood - Shrimpton - Blaine
6. Race: Rumh - Reem Star - Bilidn
7. Race: Royal Rascal - Polski Max - Dream Scenario

Rest of Newmarket

The rest of the Newmarket card looks tricky, with the heavy ground certain to play a role and non-runners very likely. The main supporting feature is the Group Two Superlative Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.10 CET. Several of these ran in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, where Olympic Glory (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) was runner-up with Artigiano (Mahmood al Zarooni)/ Frankie Dettori) 5th and Lines of Battle (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) sixth. Over this extra furlong and on different ground the result may well be different this time around. Others to consider are the unbeaten Maxentius (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ William Buick) and Operation Chariot (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), who are now facing tougher opposition. Birdman (David Simcock/ Martin Lane) has won on the heavy, which could be a big advantage in today´s conditions.

The big betting race here is the Bunbury Cup, a 7 furlongs handicap at 15.40 with 20 runners, none lof whom can be easily discarded. Quite a few of these ran at Royal Ascpt, either in the Royal Hunt Cup over a mile or in the Buckingham Palace over this distance, amd where Excellent Guest (George Margarson/ Tom Queally) and Jamesie (David Marnane/ Pat Dobbs) were the respective runners-up. Belgian Bill (George Baker/ Richard Hughes) ran in both faces, but was well beaten, he is however not out of it today. This is extremely open, and with the effect of the draw and of the going two unknown factors, stakes should be kept to a minimum.

later: Excellent Guest and Imperial Guest, both trained by George Margarson, have been withdrawn from the Bunbury Cup because of the heavy ground. More non-runners very likely.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sir John Hawkwood - Ardmay - Andalieb
2. Race: Olympic Glory - Maxentius - Artigiano
3. Race: Jamesie - Decent Fella - Bonnie Brae
4. Race: Society Rock - The Cheka - Ortensia
5. Race: Bircham - Hasopop - Purcell
6. Race: Kimberella - Oasis Cannes - Echion
7. Race: John Louis - Little Rocky - Local Hero

July Cup at Newmarket

The Group One July Cup over 6 furlongs at 16.20 CET is the featured event of Newmarket´s July meeting which ends today. Unfortnately the bad weather has spoilt ther race, and ante-post favourite Bated Breath has already been taken out, and it is quite possible that others might follow, such as Strong Suit, while Australian hope Ortensia is another who will not like the ground. Our main fancy is another Australian horse, Godolphin´ s Sepoy, who had top class form when trained by Perter Snowden, and is now with Mahmood al Zarooni and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. He was last seen at the Meydan meeting, where he ran badly, but that is probably irrelevant, as his Australian form bears the closest inspection. He has also won on the soft, although he has probably not encountered ground as heavy as it will be today. Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Ryan Moore) looks the main danger. He goes on any ground, but his main problem is that he frequently starts very slowly, which is not a desirable trait in a sprinter. The unknown factors here are the two 3yo´s in the field, both Irish-trained - Reply (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Fire Lily (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), and ther last-named could be very dangerous off her light weight as she goes well on soft ground. Dandy Boy (David Marnane/ Pat Dobbs) is another Irish hope; he is a top handicapper and won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, but would probably also prefer better ground.

later: two more non-runners, Libranno and Krypton Factor

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sir John Hawkwood - Ardmay - Andalieb
2. Race: Olympic Glory - Maxentius - Artigiano
3. Race: Jamesie - Decent Fella - Bonnie Brae
4. Race: Society Rock - The Cheka - Ortensia
5. Race: Bircham - Hasopop - Purcell
6. Race: Kimberella - Oasis Cannes - Echion
7. Race: John Louis - Little Rocky - Local Hero

More rain - Salisbury abandoned

There has been more rain in many parts of the U.K. and this evening´s meeting at Salisbury has been abandoned as well as the Irish meeting at Tipperary. The going will be very testing, particularly at Hamilton, Newbury and Newmarket, where ante-post favourite Bated Breath has been taken out of the Group One July Cup because of the ground.

Friday, July 13, 2012

German runner at York

There is also good racing today at York and Newbury and York´s Group Three Summer Stakes for fillies over 6 furlongs at 15.35 has a German runner Gracia Directa (Dominik Moser/ Robert Winston), winner of a listed race at Hoppegarten and before that a handicap at the Baden-Baden May meeting, This is another move up in grade, but the trainer seems confident that she will run a big race.

Top-rated here is Margot Did (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) but she has been below form so far this year and is probably better over 5 furlongs anyway. On recent form the two 3yo´s Radio Gaga (Ed McMahon/ Richard Mullern) and Sentaril (William Haggas/ Kelly Harrison), runner-up in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, are the ones to beat.

With so much good racing today there is a lot of pressure to find the best jockeys and it is surprising to see Richard Hughes riding at Newbury, where he has 5 mounts, 4 for this father-in-law Richard Hannon. His best chances are Varnish at 25.50 and Aldwick Bay at 17.35. However the most popular winner would probably be oldtimer Cape Royal (Milton Bradley/ Pat Dobbs), who contests his 178th race in the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00. He has won 13 races and been placed 46 times and we hope to see him in the frame again at the age of 12.

July Meeting at Newmarket: day two with Falmouth Stakes

The Group One Falmouth Stakes for fillies over a mile at 16.00 CET is the main feature of the second day of the July meeting at Newmarket and we expect a French victory. There are in fact 3 French runners, Golden Lilac (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), Giofra (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Soumillon) and Siyouma (Francois Doumen/ Gerald Mossé) and while the last-named needs to improve to figure here, we would not be surprised to see the first two, both of which are German-owned, to take the first two places. Golden Lilac is the class act here, having won both French fillies´classics last year and beaten Ciurrs des Aigles on her only outing this season, but the soft ground is a bit of a worry. However on a line through Cirrus des Aigles she should hold Giofra, although that one seems much improved this year. Irish hopes Alanza (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh) and Maybe (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) could be the main dangers to the French, as the British fillies do not look good enough.

The other group race at Newmarket today is the Cherry Hinton Stakes for 2yo fillies at 15.25, in which Richard Hannon has a strong hand with two unbeaten runners City Image (Ryan Moore) and Maureen (Jimmy Fortune), while the sole Irish runner Sendmylovetorose (A Oliver/ Colm O´Donoghue) is also unbeaten. With the form lines quite confusing here, no bet is recommended but the race should certainly be watched for future clues.
There are big fields in the handicaps and maiden races which all look very tricky from the punting point of view, but for those looking for a longshot we recommend Semayyel (Clive Brittain/ Neil Callan) in the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 14.50,

Thursday, July 12, 2012

July Meeting at Newmarket

the July Meeting at Newmarket is always one of the best meetings of the summer and, neatly sandwiched between Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, always atttracts strong fields. Luckily Newmarket has missed much of the rain that has hit most of Britain, but the going is bound to be on the soft side. Today´ s card opens with the Group Three Bahrain Stakes for 3yo´s over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 14.20 CET, usually a good trial for the St. Leger and last year both races were won by Masked Marvel. His trainer John Gosden now saddles Shantaram (William Buick), who looks the clear form choice, having run second to Main Sequence in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The obvious danger is Valiant (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore), winner of both his races so far but taking quite a leap in class here. Rewarded (Jamie Toller/ Kirsty Milczarek), third to Energizer at Royal Ascot is next best.

The Group Two July Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 14.50 has 9 runners, 6 of whom ran at Royal Ascot: Sir Pranecealot (Richard hannon/ Richard Hughes) foinished 4th in the Coventryx with Heavy Metal (Mark Jkihnston/ Joe Fanning) well behind, while Alhebayeb (Hannon/ Paul Hanagan) was runner-up in the Windsor Castle over 5 furlongs with Smoothtalkinrascal (Brian Meehan/ Shane Kelly) 8th, and Gale Force Ten (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) was runner-up in the Norfolk with Ahern (David Barron/ Jamie Spencer) running on into fifth. It is difficult to tie in these form lines, but the Coventry is usually the best 2yo race at the meeting so we shall go along with Sir Prancealot. He is ridden by the stable´s main jockey, but Hanagan would be on Aklhebayeb in any case as that one is owned by Hamdan.

Royal Ascot form could also be decisive in the Group Two Princess of Wales´s Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 as 4 of these runners also ran in the Hardwicke Stakes, in which Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Tom McLaughlin) finished third, Jakkalberry (Marco Botti/ Buick) fifth, and Fiorente (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) sixth. Red Cadeaux is very tough and consistent, but has a penalty for winning the Yorkshire Cup and may find this distance too short and the concession of three pounds to some useful opponents too much. We expect both of those who finished behind him to be much closer this time, especially Fiorente who is a son of Monsun and should like the ground. Harris Tweed (Haggas/ Liam Jones), who also likes soft ground, is another danger, but the Godolphin runner Modun (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who has not run since the Meydan meeting, looks well held by Red Cadeaux on Melbourne Cup form.

Godolophin probably have a better chance with Greek War (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona) in the 10 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 15.25. He has a great German pedigree (by Monsun out of Gonfilia) and was a very easy winner over this CD last time. he has been put up a whole stone for that win, but still has a good chance, although the race is very open; the unexposed Nabucco (Gosden/ Buick) and Hajras (Mark Johnston/ Hanagan) are just two of several dangers.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

5 meetings today

There are 5 meetings in the U.K. today and at the time of writing it looks as if all 5 will go ahead - although after yesterday´s disasters one cannot be certain. At Lingfield this afternoon, the first 5 races are on turf and the last 3 on the all-weather. The fillies handicap at 16.30 CET looks the most interesting event. The older runners are not up to much, so the 3yo´s should dominate here, with Ironically (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan), a good runner-up at Windsor last time after a 9 months break, the very well-bred Gallipot (John Gosden/ William Buick), whose owner Lady Rothschild has scored with her last 7 runners (!), and Panettone (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), who has not yet run in 2012, the three to concentrate on.

At Yarmouth, the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.10 is the best race. Some of these have been running in much better races, such as The Confessor (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) and Born to Surprise (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), but we have a sneaking fancy for Hadaj (Clive Brittain/ Tom Queally), who looks well handicapped. At Catterick, where the going will be very testing, we like 8yo Bollin Felix (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) in the 2 mile handicap at 16.20; the stable is in good form, he stays well and he goes well on this ground.

The going will also be heavy at Worcester´s jumps meetimg this evening. The best race here on paper is the novice hurdle at 22.10 where no fewer than 8 of the 12 runners are last-time-out winners from big stables. However it appears that this race has been targeted by trainers angry at the low prize-money and that there will be a mass of non-runners, leaving possibly only one runner to walk over.

Finally there is the usual Wednesday evening all-weather card at Kempton. Easily the best race here is the mile handicap at 21.50 with some smart performers entetred. Our selection is the lkghtly-raced Godolphin 3yo Famous Poet /Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a winner here in April and who ran well at the Epsom Derby meeting. Russian Ice (Dean Ivory/ Shane Kelly) is a CD specialist but is badly drawn on the wide outside, but Morning Charm (John Gosden/ William Buick) is a very interesting runner. She ran once as a 2yo, winning quite a hot Newmatrket maiden in August 2010 and has not been seen since. As she belongs to a big owner-breeder, it is surprising that she has been kept in training, and as the stable form could not be better, she must definitely be considered.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Lady Mango - Douze Points - Dvinsky
2. Race: March - Nardin - Hoodna
3. Race: Avonmore Star - Barney McGrew - Button Moon
4. Race: Phonic - Decana - Emrani
5. Race: Silent Moment - Officer In Command - Mafi
6. Race: Famous Poet - Rio Grande - Russian Ice
7. Race: Do More Business - Storm Runner - Abriachan

Brownstown Stakes now at Naas

The Group Three Brownstown Stakes for filles and mares over 7 furlongs, which has already been cancelled twice following two abandonments at Fairyhouse, will now be run this evening at 20.30 at Naas (weather permitting!). As we wrote yesterday, this is one of the weakest group races of the year and has cut up even further with just 5 runners. After (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is clear best on ratings, having finished fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas, and stands out on form. Marvada (Keith Condon/ Shane Foley), the only 4yo in the field, is probably next best, though lightly-raced Singing Bird (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) could also run well. The rest of the Naas card is pretty uninspiring, though it is possible that here might be some decent horses in the two 2yo maidens that open the meeting. There is also an Irish jumps meeting today at Wexford, where the best race is the 2 miles 1 furlong chase at 15.45. Raptor (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) - not to be confused with the ex-German horse of the same name - is the best performer in the small field and can give away weight all round. The improved Bally Green (Mouse Morris/ David Casey) has won his last two races and looks the main danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Parliament Square - Impound - Three Sea Captains
2. Race: Where - Magical Dream - Fascinate
3. Race: Stones Peak - Ningaloo Reef - Little Village
4. Race: After - Marvada - Singing Bird
5. Race: Custom Cut - Ahimsa - Tamam Namoose
6. Race: Unanimous - Loreto - Tandem
7. Race: Pivot Bridge - The Fox Tully - Teofolina

Monday, July 09, 2012

Only Ayr this afternoon

With Newton Abbot called off, Ayr stages the only racing this afternoon, but the card is very poor, with 6 low-level handicaps and a 2yo maiden with 4 runners.The best race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 15.30 CET, which looks very open and all 9 runners have a chance. Top-weight Head Space (Ruth Carr/ james Sullivan) was an easy winner here over 6 furlongs from Crimson Knot (Alan Berry/ Tom Eaves) and Rothesby Chancer (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee), who meet him on much better terms now but have both well beaten since. Perhaps the safest bet is Hazelrigg (Tim Easterby/ David Allan), who has not won for ages but ran well last time to be second over this CD, while oldtimer Haajes (Paul Midgeley/ Ned Curtis) is also not out of it with a good claimer oin board.

The racing this evening is slightly better and there is a listed race at Roscommon (Ireland) over 1 1/2 miles at 21.30. 3 of the 10 runners are owned by the Aga Khan and it is significant that his retained jockey Johnny Murtagh has chosen to ride Mike Halford´s Maasiyn, up in trip after winning over 10 furlongs last time. The stable´s other runner Defining Year (Shane Foley) is also up in trip, as is consistent Aaraas (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonogh), but as the going is certain to be very testing, we prefer to go for a runner with proven stamina, in which case Offer (Aidan O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue) and the oldest horse in the field Sense of Purpose (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), third and sixth respectively in the Curragh Cup over 1 3/4 miles come into the reckoning. Weld´s mare has a penalty as the only group winner in the field and so Offer is narrowly preferred.

At Windsor, Viscount Vert (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) attempts to cpmplete a quick hat-trick in the mile handicap for 3yo´s at 20.10; he is clearly much improved and can go in again. Topweight Takeitfromalady (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) and the two Hannon runners Sugarformyhoney (Ryan Moore) and Eurystheus (Richard Hughes) are the main dangers.
Another much improved 3yo is Sir Mark Prescott´s Athenian (Chris Catlin), who runs in the 76 furlongs handicap at 21.20 at Ripon. He has gone up 20 lbs for winning 3 races this season, but still looks the likeliest winner.

Sunday, July 08, 2012

Poor racing today

Ayr is the only flat meeting today., but the card is very poor. The best race is the mile handicap at 16.30 CET, in which Silver Rime (Linda Perrett/ Phillip Makin) attempts to repeat his 2010 victory. His recent form is not inspiring, but he is now on a very favourable mark. 3yo Prophesy (Declan Carroll/ Neil Farley), who has run two good races for this trainer after previously being with Aidan O´Brien, is an obvious danger, as is Le Chat d´Or, who won at Newcastle last time. The question mark of the race is top-weight Star Supreme (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), not seen out since running several times at the Mreydan winter meeting (placed twce). Bell and Turner are also represented by Rock of Monet, top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´ s at 17.30, and although he has so far only ever managed one third place, he could still be good enough to beat these feeble rivals.

Ayr - betting forecast:
1. Race: Burning Blaze - Hunting Rights - Elnadancer
2. Race: Emeralds Spirit - Goninodaethat - Sabratha
3. Race: Tazaamun - Kyllachykov - Petrocelli
4. Race: Prophesy - Silvery Moon - Le Chat D`Or
5. Race: Houston Dynimo - The Oil Magnate - Bavarian Nordic
6. Race: Rock Of Monet - Balti`S Sister - Dartrix
7. Race: Blue Noodles - Distant Sun - Toffee Nose


The only other racing in the U.K. today is over jumps at Market Rasen. In our view the best way to bet on summer racing is to stick to recent form, and we therefore recommend Changing the Guard (Dr. Richard Newland/ Sam Jones) at 14.45, Talk of Saafend (Dianne and EC Sayer) at 15.15, and Silent Snow (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) at 17.15, who can all follow up recent victories. The Shirocco filly Schism (Jonjo O´Neill/ RP McLernon) has not lived up to expectations, but off a very light weight can beat some poor opposition in the beginners chase at 16.45.

Market Rasen - betting forecast:
1. Race: Changing The Guard - Stravita - Highland Love
2. Race: Talk Of Saafend - Lawgiver - Allformary
3. Race: Lucky Landing - Trop Fort - Grand Exit
4. Race: Dirty Bertie - Dipity Doo Dah - King Mak
5. Race: Schism - Fennis Boy - Cool Star
6. Race: Silent Snow - La Pantera Rosa - Delgany Gunner
7. Race: Blue Hills - Clever Dick - Molko Jack
8. Race: Be Devious - Langley House - Berea Court


In Ireland there is a N.H.meeting at Limerick and a mixed meeting at Bellewstown, where the rapidly improving hurdler Discoteca (Gordpon Elliott/ Keith Donoghue) can win his fourth race on the trot at 17.35. At the former meeting, the main event is the Galway Plate Trial, a handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 17.50, although we cannot imagine any of these runners having much chance at Galway itself. Victrix Gale (Tomy Martin/ Paul Townend) has won his last two races and looks very dangerous, as is Wellforth (Paul Gilligan/ Barry Cash), who has been in good form this summer. However we shall take a chance on top-weight River Liane (Tom Cooper/ Robbie Power), who has not won for almost 3 years, but has been sparingly raced and mainly running in better company.

Limerick - betting forecast:
1. Race: The Folkes Choice - Native Son - God`s County
2. Race: Dancing Tornado - Satu - Clarach
3. Race: Zaralabad - Cyprusormilan - Dingaling
4. Race: Clouded Thoughts - Prince Ludovic - Our Victoria
5. Race: Sicilian Secret - Jack Cool - Lord Ben
6. Race: Victrix Gale - Campbonnais - Jamsie Hall
7. Race: Ms Bliss - Crystal Earth - Mandy Winger
8. Race: Dani Catalonia - Izabelle Amie - Roisin Dubh


Bellewstown - betting forecast:
1. Race: That Boy David - Jpevie - Lord Jim
2. Race: Kedleston - Boom To Bust - Font Of Wisdom
3. Race: Happy Anniversary - Painted Fingers - Irish Reel
4. Race: Faranadooney - Everything Zain - Passion Planet
5. Race: Discoteca - Now This Is It - Doctor Deejay
6. Race: Dunroe Boy - Jewel In The Sun - Baby`S Hot
7. Race: Norah Starr - Paramount - Leblon

Saturday, July 07, 2012

Rest of Sandown

The rest of the Sandown card is also high class wth some very competitive fields, despite the fact there are lots of non-runners because of the changed going. There are 10 (!!) non-runners in the opening 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 14.30 CET, including most of the ones we liked, so we should leave this race alone. If forced to have a bet, we would go for Signor Sassi (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), who has started favourite for all his career starts so far but beaten into second every time. The Group Three race over 5 furlongs at 15.05 sees several horses in the line-up that have met before, including 4 that ran in a red-hot renewal of the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Medicean Man (Jeremy Gask/ Jimmy Quinn) and Spirit Quartz (Robert Cowell/ Frankie Dettori) did best in fourth and fifth, but we hope to see sixth-placed Night Carnation (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) come out best this time. he is a real specialist here and won this race last year.

The mile handicap at 15.40 is another very open affair, but we think that the 3 horses at the top of the handicap will have the race between them: Con Artist (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori), Field of Dream (Jamie Osborne/ Ryan Moore) and Trade Commissioner (John Gosden/ Buick), who is lighlty traced but looks a group race winner of the future. The listed race for 3yo fillies over a mile at 16.10 should on all known form go to Starscope (Gosden/ Buick), runner-up in both the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes. She was well beaten by the winner each time, but those are easily the best pieces of form in the race. Arsaadi (William Haggas) and Ladys First (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan- returning from injury), second and third in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot, look next best. There is another listed race at 17.20, this time over 2 miles. Cavalryman (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori) and Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning) need faster ground so we shall ignore them. Chiberta King (Balding/ Fo rtune) won this last year in a photo from Aaim to Ptrosper (Brian Meehan/ Neil Callan), with Electrolyser (Clive Cox/ Tom Queally) third and it is quite possible that we shall see a repeat of the 2011 result.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Signor Sassi - Dutch Supreme - Ivor`S Princess
2. Race: Night Carnation - Spirit Quartz - Elnawin
3. Race: Trade Commissioner - Spa`S Dancer - Field Of Dream
4. Race: Starscope - Arsaadi - Falls Of Lora
5. Race: Farhh - Nathaniel - Cityscape
6. Race: Cavalryman - Askar Tau - Mount Athos
7. Race: Oojooba - Traveller`S Tales - Fortieth And Fifth

Eclipse Stakes at Sandown

The Eclipse, to be run today over ten furlongs at 16.45 CET at Sandown and named after one of the greatest racehorses of all time, is always one of the best races of the year and today´s edition is no different - despite the withdrawal of the favourite So You Think, who went lame earlier in the week and has now been retired. It looks a very open race with question marks over several of the leading contenders.

Monterosso (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona), one of three Godolphin runners, won the Dubai World Cup but has not been seen since. Stable companion City Style (Ahmed Ajtebi) looks held, but we certainly like Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who is very lightly raced and is running for only the fifth time on his life. He won his first 3 races, and then moved up in grade to finish third - after not getting a clear run- in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot won by So You Think. He is out of German Group One winner Gonbarda and we think he must have a good chance here.

The betting suggests that Nathaniel (John Gosden/ William Buick) could be his most dangerous opponent. He won ther King George last year - in our opinion a sub-par race in 2011 but still a very prestigious one- but has only run once since - when fifth in the Champion Stakes. He is being trained for the King George again, and over this trip and after a long layoff, we are not quite convinced, although the stable has a briullianzt record in getting one ready for the big events. In our opinion Bonfire (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), the only 3yo in the field now that Cogito has been taken out, is the main danger. The son of Manduro won the Dante Stakes in good style and was fancied for the Derby, but was below form there and could not handle the track. Sandown should be more straightforward and 3yo´s are in our view very favourably treated at the weights.

Twice Over (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) is a regular fixture in these big 10 furlong races and won this in 2010 from Sri Putra (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), but that was a poor renewal and this field looks stronger. Cityscape (Roger Charlton/James Doyle) was well beaten in Hong Kong last time and before that won the Dubai Duty Free; he is clearly smart, but we just don´t believe he can win this. The unknown quantity in the race is the ex-Italian Crackerjack King (Marco Botti/ Ryan Moore), who is running for the first time in the U.K. and has won 8 of his last 9 starts- the sole defeat coming in last year´s Fremch Derby. It would be foolish to underrate him, but we feel that the race lies between Farhh and Bonfire. There are plenty of people ready to denigrate Godolphin, but we are great fans and hope to see Farhh score his first group race success.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Signor Sassi - Dutch Supreme - Ivor`S Princess
2. Race: Night Carnation - Spirit Quartz - Elnawin
3. Race: Trade Commissioner - Spa`S Dancer - Field Of Dream
4. Race: Starscope - Arsaadi - Falls Of Lora
5. Race: Farhh - Nathaniel - Cityscape
6. Race: Cavalryman - Askar Tau - Mount Athos
7. Race: Oojooba - Traveller`S Tales - Fortieth And Fifth

3 meetings abandoned today

The disastrous weather continues and 3 meetings today have been abandoned - Carlisle, Nottingham and Leicester. However racing at Haydock, Beverley and Bellewstown (Ireland) goes ahead after inspections, although the ground will be very testing at these tracks. The good news is that Sandown, which has by far the best card today, featuring the Group One Eclipse Stakes, has missed much of the rain and the going there is good to soft, soft in places.

Friday, July 06, 2012

Listed races at Sandown

Sandown, where there is a strong field for tomorrow´s Eclipse Stakes despite the late withdrawal of So You Think (lame and now retired) also offers an above-average Friday card with two listed races. The first at 15.50 CET is a 5 furlongs sprint for 2yo´s and Morawij (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), who ran an excellent race at Royal Ascot when a close fourth in the Norfolk Stakes, stands out on form. The filly Lasilia (Kevin Ryan/ Richard Hughes) also ran well in a different race at the royal meeting and looks the main danger.

The other race, for 3yo´s and up over 10 furlongs at 17.00, looks much more open. The consistent Afsare (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) is the likely favourite, but he has not won for two years; however he is lightly-raced and has frequently showed up well in better races than this. Songcraft (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), one of two Godolphin runners, is top-rated but has not run since the Meydan meeting. He had no chance in the Sheema Classic but won his previous 4 races. Hamdan al Maktoum also has two runners, of which we prefer Farhaan (John Dunlop/ William Buick), although he carries the second colours. The Dunlop stable, after a very slow start to the season, is coming into form and this lightly-raced colt looks capable of great improvement.

We hope that this is the case as Dunlop also has fancied runners at Doncaster - Korngold (Ryan Moore), who is owned by Benny Andersson of ABBA fame, at 17.45, and this evening at Haydock - Estebsaal (Tagdh O´Shea) at 21.45. Ryan Moore´s presence at Doncaster is mainly due to the Queen´ s runner Sequence (Sir Michael Stoute) in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.10 and this lightly-raced half-sister to Sinndar can win on her first foray into handicap company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Oldjoesaid - Ray Of Joy - Fair Value
2. Race: Morawij - Lasilia - Star Breaker
3. Race: Caramack - Royal Skies - Harry Bosch
4. Race: Afsare - Songcraft - Tazahum
5. Race: Encke - Chain Of Events - Tropical Beat
6. Race: Knightly Escapade - Mohanad - Rosairlie

Warwick abandoned

The bad weather is not over yet and today´s meeting at Warwick has been abandoned as the track is waterlogged.

5 meetings today

Today´s N.H. meeting at Perth has been abandoned as the track is still waterlogged, but there should be no problems with the 5 flat meetings, although the cards look weak - especially at the 2 afternoon fixtures. At Haydock, the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.50 CET is the best betting race, but looks very open. Best Trip (Brian Ellison/ Barry McHugh) is much improved since moving to Ellison and has won his last 3 races; he is still on a nice mark, but the opposition here looks tougher. The lightly-raced Magic Secret (Jeremy Gask/ Raul da Silva) and Hills of Dakota (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons) both look dangerous, while Emiratesdotcom (Milton Btadley/ Richard Kingscote), although more exposed, is consistent and could run into the money at a decent price.

The best race at Yarmouth is the 9 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.10 with runners from some of the top stables. Strada Facendo (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) ran a good race last time at Haydock, and is the likely favourite, but he is still a maiden, as are Disposition (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) and Strident Force (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ted Durcan); these are all well-bred types who are capable of winning races at some stage, but for now we prefer one who has already shown winning form - Touch Gold (Sir Henry Ccil/ Tom Queally), who won a Newmarket maiden last time in good style.

The evening cards are slightly stronger. At Epsom the 6 furlongs handicap at 20.10 looks really hot and the field includes 3 CD specialists - top-weight Swiss Cross (Phil McEntee/ David Probert), Baldemar (Richard Fahey/ Shane B.Kelly) and bottom-weight Mac Gille Eion (Jeff Gallagher/ Neil Callan), who won this race last year and in 2009. Sprints at this track are always tricky, but we shall take a chance with Sohraab (Hughie Morrison/ Darryll Holland), a bit unlucky on his last two starts but very dangerous if he gets the run of the race.

At Newbury,the 7 furlongs conditions race at 20.25 has attracted some runners on the verge of listed class. Godolphin´s Australian-bred Scarf (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) was a close 7th of 28 in the Wokingham after racing on the wrong side, while Dimension (James Fanshawe/ William Buick) actually started favourite for the Royal Hunt Cup and was not disgraced in 8th (of 30!). However the one to beat is the 3yo Bronterre Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who won his first 2 races last year and then finished 4th in the Dewhurst. He has not run since finishing well beaten in the 2,000 Guineas, but a repetition of his 2yo form would seem him in the winners circle here.

The older horses running in ther Irish meeting at Leopardstown this evening are nothing special, but the two races for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs could well reveal some stars of the future, and Aidan O´Brien runs four very well-bred debutants - Flying the Flag (Joseph O´Brien) and The Vatican (Colm O`Donoghue) at 19.30 and Il Palazzo (Colm O´Donoghue) and Snow Queen (Joseph O´Brien) in the filllies race half an hour later. These are not races to bet on - we don´t suppose the trainer himself knows which are his main hopes here - but should definitely be watched for future clues.

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Catterick, Worcester, Kempton

The 3 cards that are left are not especially inviting, and this applies particularly to the two afternoon meetings. At Catterick we recommend the lightly-raced Miss Ellany (David O´Meara/ Daniel Tudhope) in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.20 CET. The lightly-raced filly ran in Ireland last year, but showed much improved form on her first start for her new trainer 3 weeks ago when readily winning a Beverley maiden and faces weak opposition here. She will however almost certainly start as hot favourite. At Worcester the German-bred Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Conor Ring), a half-brother to Lady Marian, has top-weoight in the handoicap nhurdöer at 17.40. He is the best horse in the race, but the heavy ground is not in his favour and he is ridden by a relatively inexperienced claimer, so we prefer Stage Acclaim (Dr. Richard Newland/ Tom O´Brien) who has won his last two races, both in the last 3 weeks and can score again.

A more likely German-bred winner is Rumh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a daughter of Monsun who is now with Godolphin, for whom she has acted as pacemaker several times. She is now running on her own account in the 2 mile handicap at 21.00 at Kempton and seems very attractively weighted. At 20.35 we also hope that the Samum gelding All the W inds (Sam Lycett/ Ryan Powell) runs well; he is very inconsistent, both on the flat and over jumps, but both his flat wins have come at this track.

3 meetings abandoned - 3 left

The heavy rainfall in many parts of Britain and Ireland continues to take its toll and today´s meetings at Chepstow (Wales), Perth (Scotland) and Fairyhouse (ireland) have all been abandoned. It is hoped that the Irish meeting, which includes a group race, can be staged next Tuesday. We are left today with just Catterick and Worcester (N.H.) in the afternoon and Kempton (all-weather) in the evening.