Saturday, July 14, 2012

July Cup at Newmarket

The Group One July Cup over 6 furlongs at 16.20 CET is the featured event of Newmarket´s July meeting which ends today. Unfortnately the bad weather has spoilt ther race, and ante-post favourite Bated Breath has already been taken out, and it is quite possible that others might follow, such as Strong Suit, while Australian hope Ortensia is another who will not like the ground. Our main fancy is another Australian horse, Godolphin´ s Sepoy, who had top class form when trained by Perter Snowden, and is now with Mahmood al Zarooni and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. He was last seen at the Meydan meeting, where he ran badly, but that is probably irrelevant, as his Australian form bears the closest inspection. He has also won on the soft, although he has probably not encountered ground as heavy as it will be today. Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Ryan Moore) looks the main danger. He goes on any ground, but his main problem is that he frequently starts very slowly, which is not a desirable trait in a sprinter. The unknown factors here are the two 3yo´s in the field, both Irish-trained - Reply (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Fire Lily (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), and ther last-named could be very dangerous off her light weight as she goes well on soft ground. Dandy Boy (David Marnane/ Pat Dobbs) is another Irish hope; he is a top handicapper and won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, but would probably also prefer better ground.

later: two more non-runners, Libranno and Krypton Factor

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sir John Hawkwood - Ardmay - Andalieb
2. Race: Olympic Glory - Maxentius - Artigiano
3. Race: Jamesie - Decent Fella - Bonnie Brae
4. Race: Society Rock - The Cheka - Ortensia
5. Race: Bircham - Hasopop - Purcell
6. Race: Kimberella - Oasis Cannes - Echion
7. Race: John Louis - Little Rocky - Local Hero