Sunday, July 15, 2012

2 jumps meetings today

Ridiculous race planning calls for only NH racing today in the U.K. after 6 flat meetings yesterday, and with Perth abandoned (waterlogged), we are left with just Stratford and Southwell. The most interesting race of the day is the handicap hurdle at 16.20 CET at Stratford, which includes several smart ex-flat horses, such as Aviso (David Evans/ Aidan Coleman), who won the German 2,000 Guineas, Enroller (Willie Muir/ Paddy Brennan), a group winner, and Dubawi Phantom (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan), runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Fashionable Gal (Neil King/ Tom Whelan), was nowhere as good as these on the flat, although she is a daughter of Galileo, but has taken well to hurdles and was an easy CD winner 12 days ago. This could be quite tricky, but we prefer Dubawi Phantom, whose trainer has an exellent strike rate over hurdles, and who won in good style at Hereford 3 weeks ago after a 7 months break. The handicap chase , also lover 2 miles, half an hour later a lso looks open, even though there are only 5 runners. Passato, a son of Lando, has won on the flat twice this summer and can defy a big weight.

Stratford - betting forecast:
1. Race: Traditional Bob - Grand Lahou - Dorset Naga
2. Race: Airmen`S Friend - Forty Five - Gambo
3. Race: Smalib Monterg - Dubawi Phantom - Fashionable Gal
4. Race: Nobunaga - Passato - Tempting Paradise
5. Race: Snowed In - Foster`s Road - King`s Wharf
6. Race: Lidjo De Rouge - Daneva - Bloodyburn Bay
7. Race: Bobowen - Catch The Fire - Free Falling



There are quite big fields at Southwell, but very little in the way of quality. The handicap chase for conditional jockeys at 15.40 looks wide open. Young Brendan Powell is going places and rode a winner for the Queen on the flat at the Newmarket July meeting. He could win this on the ex-German Speedy Directa, trained by his father, although the consistent Morenito (Tom George/ Gerald Quinn) and course specialist Gingers Lad (Mick Easterby/ Jake Greenall) both look very dangerous. Our best bet here is Safe Investment (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) in the handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 17.40, a race he won last year. He has not won since, but has been mainly running over fences, and a return to the sticks could see him back in the winners circle.

Southwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Shoegazer - Red Not Blue - Danimix
2. Race: Le Grand Chene - The Lemonpie - The Grey One
3. Race: Avanos - Ballybough Gorta - Ginger`S Lad
4. Race: Railway Rico - Molaise Lad - Isabelle B
5. Race: Robbie - Prankster - Lukeys Luck
6. Race: Billy Blade - Easter Lad - Benmadigan
7. Race: Spate River - Kapdor - Stop The Show
8. Race: Springinherstep - Molly Oscar - Comingthrotherye