Sunday, July 29, 2012

Group One races at Deauville and Munich

there is nothing much happening in British racing today, but there is high-class sport on the continent, with Group One races in France in Germany. The big Deauville summer meeting started yesterday and the first highlight is today´s Prix Rothschild for fillies over a mile at 14.30 CET. Only 5 runners but they are all well up to Group One standard. The German-owned Golden Lilac (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) is the likely favourite, despite her poor run in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, where Elusive Kate (John Gosden/ William Buick) finished well in front of her in second, but the ground that day was atrocious and the form must not be taken literally. However Elusive Kate, who won the Marcel Boussac last year on fast going, is an obvious threat. So is Sagawara (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire), winner of the Prix St. Alary, while Immortal Verse (Robert Collet/ Gerald Mossé makes her seasonal debut, but had good enough form last season, including a win in the Coronat ion Stakes. Mashoora (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Soumillon) is the only runner without a Group One win to her name, but has plenty of good form and definitely not out of it.
The Prix Cabourg at 14.00 is for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs; Mark Johnston and Ioritz Mendizabal teamed up to win a 2yo race here yesterday and can perhaps repeat this feat with Baileys Jubilee. From the German point of view the listed race over 3000 metres at 15.10 is the most interesting event, as there are 4 German-trained runners: Caudillo (Dr. Bolte/ Mendizabal), Flamingo Fantasy (Sascha Smrczek/ Stephane Pasquier) and two trained by Waldemar Hickst, Tres Rock Danon (Gerald Mossé), our selection, and Lacateno (Olivier Pesier)
Hickst himself will be in Munich to saddle Zazou (Andreas Suborics) in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis at 17.20, Germany´s most important ten furlongs race of the year. This has attracted a strong field, including 3 Derby winners, Waldpark (AndreasWöhler/ Eduardo Pedroza) and Pastorius (Mario Hofer/ Andrasch Starke), the last two Hamburg winners, and Feuerblitz (Michael Figge/ Rab Havlin) who took the Italian version in May. On balance we think that Zazou, who has been all over the world since last running in Germany, is strong enough to take this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Holy Dazzle - Tharsis - Dorinda
2. Race: Itri - Jolie Noce - Otou
3. Race: Pearl Flute - Wild Horse - Baileys Jubilee
4. Race: Golden Lilac - Elusive Kate - Golden Lilac
5. Race: Kalahari Gold - Unkept Rendez Vous - Ephemere
6. Race: Curro Perote - Golden Dreams - Chock Dee
7. Race: Caudillo - Tres Rock Danon - Inside Man
8. Race: Mr Doyen - Cat Princess - Flying Tomato
9. Race: Settebellezze - Lettre Intime - Amelia`S Surprise