Monday, July 16, 2012

Next O´Brien Derby winner?

It appears that all 6 meetings will go ahead today, three of them in any case on the all-weather. The standard is mainly low, but there are two highly interesting races for 2yo maidens at Dundalk, where an additional fixture has been arranged to make up for all the lost racedays of the last few weeks. Aidan O´Brien has 3 runners in both races, over 6 furlongs at 14.25 CET and over 7 an hour later, and all bred in the purple.

It can probably be asssumed that son Joseph is partnering the stable´s main hopes, in which case George Vancouver, twice a beaten favourite on heavy ground, might win the opener. However the really interesting runner is Mars, who makes his debut in the 7 furlongs race; he is needless to say a son of Galileo and has already been well backed for the 2013 Derby, and is indeed favourite in many ante-post lists. He is therefore likely to start a hot favourite today and is not an attractive betting proposition, but should certainly be watched. Among the opposition is a half-sister to German Derby winner Dai Jin, Estinaad (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonogh). The rest of the card is very modest, but Go On Murt (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry), who won here on Thursday, can follow up under a penalty in the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.55.

The two British all-weather meetings, at Southwell in the afternoon and Wolverhampton are, to be honest, not worth a second glance, with all races class 5 or 6, but there is an interesting mile handicap at 17.05 at Ayr. The only 3yo in the field, Indepub (Kevin Ryan/ Julie Burke), owned by ex-trainer David Barker, made all to win at Newcastle a fortnight ago and can win again under bottom weight; the dangers are the 3 top-welghts, and in view of the excellent stable form we choose Extraterrestrial (Richard Fahey/ Shane B. Kelly), who is on a long losing run but has been dropped in the weights.

At Windsor this evening, Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can take the final two handicaps at 21.10 and 21.40 with the lightly-raced but well-bred 3yo fillies Keene Dancer and Minoan Dancer.