Saturday, July 07, 2012

Eclipse Stakes at Sandown

The Eclipse, to be run today over ten furlongs at 16.45 CET at Sandown and named after one of the greatest racehorses of all time, is always one of the best races of the year and today´s edition is no different - despite the withdrawal of the favourite So You Think, who went lame earlier in the week and has now been retired. It looks a very open race with question marks over several of the leading contenders.

Monterosso (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona), one of three Godolphin runners, won the Dubai World Cup but has not been seen since. Stable companion City Style (Ahmed Ajtebi) looks held, but we certainly like Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), who is very lightly raced and is running for only the fifth time on his life. He won his first 3 races, and then moved up in grade to finish third - after not getting a clear run- in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot won by So You Think. He is out of German Group One winner Gonbarda and we think he must have a good chance here.

The betting suggests that Nathaniel (John Gosden/ William Buick) could be his most dangerous opponent. He won ther King George last year - in our opinion a sub-par race in 2011 but still a very prestigious one- but has only run once since - when fifth in the Champion Stakes. He is being trained for the King George again, and over this trip and after a long layoff, we are not quite convinced, although the stable has a briullianzt record in getting one ready for the big events. In our opinion Bonfire (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), the only 3yo in the field now that Cogito has been taken out, is the main danger. The son of Manduro won the Dante Stakes in good style and was fancied for the Derby, but was below form there and could not handle the track. Sandown should be more straightforward and 3yo´s are in our view very favourably treated at the weights.

Twice Over (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) is a regular fixture in these big 10 furlong races and won this in 2010 from Sri Putra (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), but that was a poor renewal and this field looks stronger. Cityscape (Roger Charlton/James Doyle) was well beaten in Hong Kong last time and before that won the Dubai Duty Free; he is clearly smart, but we just don´t believe he can win this. The unknown quantity in the race is the ex-Italian Crackerjack King (Marco Botti/ Ryan Moore), who is running for the first time in the U.K. and has won 8 of his last 9 starts- the sole defeat coming in last year´s Fremch Derby. It would be foolish to underrate him, but we feel that the race lies between Farhh and Bonfire. There are plenty of people ready to denigrate Godolphin, but we are great fans and hope to see Farhh score his first group race success.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Signor Sassi - Dutch Supreme - Ivor`S Princess
2. Race: Night Carnation - Spirit Quartz - Elnawin
3. Race: Trade Commissioner - Spa`S Dancer - Field Of Dream
4. Race: Starscope - Arsaadi - Falls Of Lora
5. Race: Farhh - Nathaniel - Cityscape
6. Race: Cavalryman - Askar Tau - Mount Athos
7. Race: Oojooba - Traveller`S Tales - Fortieth And Fifth