Tuesday, September 30, 2014

5 poor meetings today

There is some great racing later in the week, but today´s 5 cards are of only minor interest. Chepstow stages its first jumps races of the new season, a sure sign that autumn is here. The best event here is the novices handicap chase at 16.40 CET; this is tricky as the two best horses in the field on hurdling form, Carole´s Destrier and Creepy, are making their debuts over fences, while Barton Stacey (David Pipe/ Tony McCoy) is clearly much better over fences than he was over sticks and has won all his 3 starts in this discipline. This experience can help him to win again here, as the newcomers are impossible to assess.

There is also jumping at Sedgefield, where German-bred Sacred Square (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), a recent winner on the flat, can take the novice hurdle at 15.450; he is no star but this looks a very weak race. Another German-bred with a chance today is A Southside Boy (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) at 16.15 at Ayr. He usually runs well at this track, as does Jinky (Linda Perratt/ Joe Fanning) who runs in the 6 furlongs handicap at 18.00. The mile handicap half an hour later is the most valuable race of the day, but looks almost impossible.

Dermot Weld continues in great form and should have another successful afternoon at the Irish meeting at Fairyhouse. He should certainly take the maiden at 16.55 with Katimavik (Pat Smullen) and also has chances of beating two Aidan O´Brien hotpots with Tango Alpha at 15.15 and Aklliyna at 18.35.

Monday, September 29, 2014

graded N.H. race in Ireland

the best race in Britain and Ireland today is the graded novice chase at 17.05 CET at Roscommon. Only 6 line up and probably only two of them have a serious chance - Ted Veale (Tony Martin/ Barry Geraghty) and Un Beau Romain (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend). Both of them were useful hurdlers, especially the former who won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013, and have already won over fences. Although Ted Veale was higher rated over hurdles, we would not be surprised to see Un Beau Romain come out on top here, as he seems to be a young chaser with plenty of potential.
In the U.K. there is jumping at Newton Abbot, where Tony McCoy has some good rides. He partners the enigmaitic Agapanthus (Neil Mulholland) in the handicap hurdle at 18.00; this Schlenderhan-bred 9yo was once thought good enough to run in the German Derby, but has been in the main very disappointing. However this is a very poor race and he can certainly score off this rating if in the right mood. The most interesting race here is the novice chase at 17.00, and just as in Ireland there are only two with a chance: Court Minstrel (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Keltus (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), both smart hurdlers and both making their chasing debuts here.
The flat racing at Bath and Hamilton is very poor, with sprint handicaps the top races at both tracks. Red Lady (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) is in great form and can take the race at 16.50 at Bath; she loves this fast ground and is 2/2 over this CD, including last time out.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Devonshire - Blue Fragrance - Shine On
2. Race: Chillie Billie - Mctaggart - Have A Nice Day
3. Race: Beyond Intensity - Dai Bando - Ardmore
4. Race: Shadagann - Mr Snagsby - Gaelic Twist
5. Race: Shake The Bucket - Enjoy Responsibly - The Black Russian
6. Race: Aranhill Chief - Pat Garrett - Cross Appeal
7. Race: Redrobin - Jamesmicheal - Cherry Lodge
8. Race: Steel Wave - Credo Star - Lady Aoife

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Newmarket Cambrigeshire meeting: day three

the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes for 2yo fillies at 16.10 CET is the top race today and is always won by a star performer. Tiggy Wiggy (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) could play that part today, she is currently rated the best 2yo in Europe and was particularly impressive when winning at York last time. She is very fast and the six furlongs at this track are probably her limit, but she could still be strong enough to hold off the strong challengers from Ireland, Anthem Alexander (Eddie Lynam/ Pat Smullen) and from France High Celebrity (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon). Tendu (John Gosden/ James Doyle) looks the best of the other Brits in the race.
The big betting race is the Cambridgeshire at 16.50, a 9 furlongs handicap worth more than most German Group One races, and even with a non-runner there are still 34 (!!) going to post. This almost is impossible to solve, but yesterday´s results showed that possibly low numbers have a slight advantage, so we take last year´s winner Educate (Ismail Mohammed/ Mikael Barzalona), 2012 winner Bronze Angel (Marcus Tregoning/ Louis Steward) and Homage (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) against the field.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sandy Cay - Little Lady Katie - Rosalie Bonheur
2. Race: Nafaqa - Elm Park - Medrano
3. Race: Tiggy Wiggy - Anthem Alexander - High Celebrity

4. Race: Cornrow - Queensberry Rules - Velox
5. Race: Jazzi Top - Taqneyya - Light Glass
6. Race: Hana Lina - Lady Correspondent - Kip
7. Race: Red Refraction - Take A Note - Secretinthepark
8. Race: Famous Kid - High Church - Saarrem

Friday, September 26, 2014

Newmarket Cambrigeshire meeting: day two

The Newmarket meeting continues with a very strong card, featuring two Group Two races and three listed races. The best race is the Joel Stakes over a mile at 16.15 CET, and although the real top milers are missing, this is still a hot race. Tulliius (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) has been placed in the Lockinge and Queen Anne, and is top-rated here, he clearly Comes on the short lost. So does the very consistent Captain cat (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) who has been in great form all year. Another 5yo Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) has won his last 4 races, but this looks much tougher. Of the 3yo´s in tzhe field we like best Outstrip (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirbyx) and Wannabe Yours (John HGosden/ William Buick) best. Thelatter is unbeaten in 3 starts this year and although up again in grade cannot be ignored, but the former - well behind Kingman on all starts this year- is coming off a break and with his stable in terrific form this week could be the one, bearing in mkind his smart form last year, when he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.

The other group race is the 7 furlongs event for 2yo fillies at 15.40, where most of the runners are moving up in grade. This is however not true of Lucida (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), who has been runner-up in two of Ireland´s top races for juvenile fillies; her neck second last time in the Moyglare is clearly the best form in today´s field, and is she can repeat that effort after only 12 days, she should win here. New Providence (Hugo Palmer/ Jim Crowley) is next best.

When a trainer suddenly hits form the way Charlie Appleby has this week, it is often a wise move to back erverything the stable runs, and we certainly like Penglai Pavilion in the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.45. He was fifth in last year´s Arc, and although his 3 efforts this year have been disappointing, that form would certainly suffice here, although he would not like the ground to dry out too much. The obvious danger is Windshear (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes); the Hannon stable is not known for stayers but this one ran fourth in the St. Leger, and could even find today´s trip too sharp.

The two listed races for fillies that open the card could both go to big owner-breeder Cheveley Park: at 14.40 with Provenance (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and either Queen of Ice (William Haggas/ Hughes) or Criteria (Gosden/ Buick) half an hour later.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Belle D`or - Provenance - Zibelina
2. Race: Criteria - My Spirit - Queen Of Ice
3. Race: Lucida - New Providence - Calypso Beat
4. Race: Tullius - Wannabe Yours - Captain Cat
5. Race: Windshear - Red Galileo - Nabucco
6. Race: Hathal - Consort - Algaith
7. Race: Munaaser - Gm Hopkins - Mange All
8. Race: Moshe - Micras - Inspector Norse

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Newmarket Cambrigeshire meeting: day one

the first of Newmarket´s two big autumn meetings starts today, with the Cambridgeshire, one of the year´s top handicaps, the big race on Saturday but supported by plenty of black type events.Today´s main feature is the Group Three Somerville Tattersall Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.40 CET, in which local trainer William Haggas holds a strong hand with 2 runners- Mubtaghaa (Paul Hanagan) and Valley of Fire (Andrew Atzeni). Neither of them has run run beyond six furlongs, and the same goes for Maftool (Saeed bin Suroor/ Richard Hughes) and Markaz (Barry Hills/ Dane O´Neill). This an obvious disadvantage, as Newmarket´s open spaces require plenty of stamina, and so we would prefer those runners with form over today´ s trip. Azraff (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) has in fact won over a mile, but in a much lower grade, while Dancetrack (Charlie Hills/ James Doyle) was an easy winner over 7 furlongs at Leicester and is also stepping up in class. Our choice is Make It Up (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who made all to beat two prevlous winners at Goodwood last time over this distance and looks good enough for this grade. Balding and Probert can also take the previous race, a 1 1/2 mile handicap, with Der Meister, whose dam was once the top-priced lot at Baden-Baden. She was a sprinter and there must be a question mark over the distance here, but Der Meister has already shown that he can stay. Stamina could also be an issue in the listed race over 2 miles at 17.15. Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) certainly has no problems in this regard, having won this race in 2011 and since then the Doncaster Cup over even further twice, but his recent form is poor. The very lightly-raced Flying Officer (John Gosden/ William Buick) and the tough handicapper Pallastor (Sir Mark Prescott/ Atzeni) are both moving up in trip, but look the most likely winners here. especially the latter, who ran well under a huge weight in the Ebor and was far from disgraced last time in the Irish St.Leger against much stronger opposition.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mohatem - Game Pie - Secateur
2. Race: Azmaam - Prince Gagarin - Black Granite
3. Race: Almerzem - Oasis Fantasy - Dance Of Heroes
4. Race: Mubtaghaa - Maftool - Valley Of Fire
5. Race: Pallasator - Times Up - Flying Officer
6. Race: Master The World - Billingsgate - Shafrah
7. Race: Aetna - Athenian - Cordial

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Listed race at Goodwood

Easily the best race of the day is the listed event over 10 furlongs at 16.50 CET at Goodwood. In theory Grandeur (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) has to win this, as he did last year. In fact he has won on his 3 previous visits to Goodwood and is clear top-rated here. He has had a pretty hectic schedule, having run 3 times in New York this summer- winning quite a lot of place money, has run in Hong Kong and also won last winters top race at Lingfield. The only conceivable danger could be Danadana (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni), who has been running in group races and was third in Turkey last time. However, although consistent, he does not have the class of Grandeur and has not won for ages. The two 3yo fillies Be My Gal (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) and Marsh Daisy (Hughie Morrison/ Silvestre de Sousa) both won listed races at the May meeting here and are next best. The 1 172 mile handicap which follows at 17.25 looks tricky, as there are question marks over every runner. Amanda Perrett, who usually does well at her local course, has 2 runners here - as does another local trainer Will Knight- and our choice is Pack Leader (de Sousa), whose only career win came at this track. Winning course form is always a big advantage here, so we also choose Bravo Echo (Mike Attwater/ Rab Havlin) in the 7 furlongs handicap half an hour later; he won over CD in June, although his more recent form is poor.

The other two flat meetings - at Redcar this afternoon and Kempton this evening- are very undistinguished, while there are small felds at the only jumps meeting at Perth. The only race with normal each-way betting at the Scottish track is the 3yo hurdle at 17.45. David Pipe has sent Sinndar´s Man (Scu) on a long journey to run here and he will probably start favourite, but our preference is for Uplifted (Kevin Ryan/ Brian Hughes), who meets Irish challenger High Expectations (Gordon Elliott/ Tony McCoy), who beat him over this CD last time, on better terms today.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

5 poor meetings today

More low level racing at today´s 5 meetings, including the Irish N.H. card at Ballinrobe. The most interesting race there is the chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs at 18.40 CET, which should lie between Rough Justice (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) and Seefood (Dessie Hughes/ Barry Geraghty). Seefood was the better hurdler and after falling at the last - when in the lead - on his first chase, then won next time over fences, but Rough Justice, who made a very encouraging chasing debut when winning over this CD 4 weeks ago looks the better prospect and is preferred.

Best race in the U.K. is the 5 furlongs conditions event at 16.45 at Beverley, in which 2 of the 6 runners are one-time Group One winners over this trip: KIngsgate Native (Robert Cowell/ Jim Crowley), who won the Nunthorpe in 2007, and Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Phillip Makin), who took the Abbaye in 2011. The former still has plenty of ability and is much preferred of this pair, but perhaps the youngster Green Door (Olly Stevens/ Andrea Atzeni), a Group Two winner last year, can outspeed them both.

The top Jockeys are all at Lingfield today - Dettori, Moore, Buick, Doyle, Spencer etc, but frankly the racing is pretty awful. German-bred Mister Bob (James Bethell/ Ted Durcan) is an interesting runner in the 2 mile handicap at 16.55. He has won his last 2 races, one of them over this CD, and although up in the weights by 6 lbs can score again.
Charlie Appleby saddled no fewer than 6 winners for Godolphin yesterday; he has two runners in the race for 2yo maiden fillies at 18.20 at Newcastle, and perhaps Hollie Point (Ahmed Ajtebi) - though clearly no star- can continue his winning run .

Monday, September 22, 2014

3 poor meetings today

A very slow start to the week and nothing that grabs the Imagination at today´s 3 flat meetings in the U.K. The best race of the day is probably the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 CET at Leicester. Top weight Milly´s Gift (Clive Cox/ Robert Tart) has been running in big handicaps and must have a chance in this grade, but we prefer Smart Daisy K (Andrew Hollinshead/ Jack Duern), who showed improved form to win at Bath last time and is clearly well suited by fast ground.. Should rain arrive - which looks unlikely-. we would switch to veteran Judge ´n´Jury (Ron Harris/ Cam Hardie), but this old boy seems to need cut in the ground these days.

Mark Johnston is usually the trainer to follow at Hamilton and he has several chances today; the ones we like best are Zanouska at 15.50 and Stetchworth at 17.20, both partnered by Joe Fanning.

At Kempton the first 5 races are all for 2yo maidens and are probably best left alone; there are hot favourites from top stables in most of them, but also some well-bred and unexposed newcomers. The only race in which older horses can run is the final mile handicap at 18.40, which looks very tricky. In fact we expect the 3yo´s to dominate here and select Royal Preserve (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who has been off since the spring. Matravers (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) won over this CD last time and is the most obvious danger.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Group race in Ireland today

We have two low-level jumps cards in England today, plus flat racing from Scotland (Hamilton) and Ireland (Gowran), but only one race of black type standard, and that is the fillies Group Three over 9 furlongs at 16.55 CET at Gowran Park. The well-bred Brooch (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) is the interesting runner here; she has won both her starts in good style - starting at odds-on on each occasion, and looks well up to this better grade. The two British raiders Odeliz (Kark Burke/ Danny Tudhope) and Regardez (Ralph Beckett/ Joseph O´Brien) are the obvious dangers. The other races of interest here are the two 2yo maidens that open the card; Aidan O´Brien has several runners in each - we assume that Joseph has chosen the right ones, but we wouldn´t bet on it!

At Hamilton the 6 furlongs conditions race at 16.20 is the main feature, and 4 of the 5 runners are useful, including last year´s winner and CD specialist Hopes N´Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Barry McHugh); however Baccarat (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner), who ran well enough in a Group One last time and had earlier won at Royal Ascot, is well clear on ratings and we expect him to win.

The two jumps carda are of little interest, with some small fields as well, but two horses that ran unplaced in the German Derby catch our eye. Russian Bolero (David Bridgewater/ Tom Scudamore) makes his hurdling debut at 15.30 at Plumpton;he is one of a number of this season´s better German 3yo´s to have been sold to go jumping and we hope he scores first time out. The older Milord (Kim Bailey/ Tony McCoy) runs in the maiden hurdle at 15.10 at Uttoxeter; he has had plenty of runs over sticks and has been very frustrating so far, however it will be a surprise if he cannot get off the mark here.

Gowran Park - betting forecast:
1. Race: Together Forever - Outstanding - Sarah Joyce
2. Race: Aared - Hans Holbein - Intransive
3. Race: Succeed And Excel - Crecora - The Nutcracker
4. Race: Hoppsan - Corker Hill - Athassel
5. Race: Brooch - Odeliz - Regardez
6. Race: Keyboard Melody - Daigreen - Bogardus
7. Race: First Sitting - Tirghra - Pershing
8. Race: Quartz - Coolfighter - Waydownsouth

Saturday, September 20, 2014

German winner at Newmarket?

There could well be a German winner at Newmarket today, as we think that Phoibe (Peter Schiergen/ Joe Fanning) must have good prospects in the valuable sales race for 2yo fillies at 16.05 CET at Newmarket. She was an unlucky runner-up on her only start so far, at Munich, and the winner there won a listed race last week. The obvious danger is Supreme Occasion (David O´Meara/ Pat Dobbs), fourth in a Group Two at Doncaster last week. To be honest, this is a very poor race for the money, and the colts´ version at 16.40 is not much better; that should go to Heartbreak Hero (William Haggas/ Seb Sanders), runner-up in a similar race at Doncaster last time. Phoibe was sold at Tattersalls- she has to be in order to be qualified to run here - and is not German-bred, but there are two German-breds running later on the card who should go well: Big Easy (Philip Hobbs/ Tom Queally) at 17.15 and Energizer (Charlie Appleby/ Jim Crowley) at 18.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Al Nofor - Moonlight Sonata - Sweet Dream
2. Race: Lady Of Dubai - Wiener Valkyrie - Sperry
3. Race: Supreme Occasion - Hundi - Phoibe
4. Race: Heartbreak Hero - Bossy Guest - Ballymore Castle
5. Race: Entihaa - Mubaraza - Teak
6. Race: Front Page News - Joe Packet - Jontleman
7. Race: Asyad - Rewaaya - Ski Lift
8. Race: Dream Spirit - Dark Emerald - Master The World




There is a much better card at Newbury, but the meeting has been spoilt by the weather which has turned the ground soft and as a result there are lots of non-runners. The Group Three at 14.50 is billed as an Arc Trial, but it would be a miracle is any of these were to run in Paris. Hillstar (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) is the form choice, but despite several good places he has won since Royal Ascot 2013 and we are not sure he will go on this ground. Camborne (John Gosden/ Rab Havlin) won this last year on the soft, but has been below form this year, so we choose course specialist Cubanita (Ralph Beckett/ Andrea Atzeni). The Group Two Mill Reef Stakes for 2yo´s at 15.20 is usually a good race, but has also been affected by the weather; Strath Burn (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer), runner-up in the Robert Papin last time, is out choice here. There are also several non-runners in the Group Three sprint at 16.30; the much improved Mecca´s Angel (Michael Dods/ Paul Hanagan) has won his last 3 races in excellent style and can continue his winning run here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stoked - Harbour Patrol - Ashridge Lad
2. Race: Hillstar - Tasaday - Glorious Protector
3. Race: Jungle Cat - Strath Burn - Baitha Alga
4. Race: Air Pilot - Roseburg - Arab Dawn
5. Race: Mecca`s Angel - Take Cover - Scream Blue Murder
6. Race: Harlequin Striker - Silver Quay - Little Palaver
7. Race: Maraakib - Miracle Ninetynine - Coorg
8. Race: Debit - Weekendatbernies - Cincuenta Pasos

Ayr Gold Cup

Today´s card at Ayr is the best of the year for flat racing in Scotland, with the Ayr Gold Cup, a valuable handicap over furlongs at 16.50 CET one of the hottest betting races of the year. This also applies to the Silver Cup, the consolation race at 15.40, and with 27 runners apiece they are extremely difficult to solve. Some trainers clearly target these races, notably Richard Fahey, who saddles a total of 13 runners (!!). We shall try to make things easier by elminating half the runners .- all those drawn 14 or lower. It was yesterday quite obvious that high numbers held a big advantage, and although this bias may not be so apparent a day later, we shall assume it is still the case. Our three against the field are therefore Ansaab (Alan McCabe/ Billy Lee), Huntsmans Close (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) and Lexington Abbey (Kevin Ryan/ Pat Smullen) in the Silver Cup, and Blaine (Ryan again with daughter Amy up), Fast Shot (Tim Easterby/ Rachel Richardson) and Supplicant (Fahey/ George Chaloner) in the Gold Cup.

Best race in theory is the Group Three for 2yo fillies at 15.05. Qatar Racing has 3 runners here, with Irish-trained Ainippe (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) in the first colours. She was a disappointing favourite at Doncaster last week over 5 furlongs, but we hope that this trip will see her in a more favoúrable light. The listed race over 10 furlongs at 16.15 sees the return of Sky Hunter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon), who was 3rd in the Prix du Jockey Club for André Fabre last season; his two runs in the U.K. in the spring were very feeble, but if he can recover some oh his old form, he would certainly win this; if not, then Gabrial (Fahey/ David Nolan) and Abseil (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) - very well bred but up in trip here - would be the likeliest winners.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Power Play - Jumeirah Glory - Chadic
2. Race: Ainippe - Prize Exhibit - Spirit Of Xian
3. Race: Redvers - Bogart - Lexington Abbey
4. Race: Sky Hunter - Sennockian Star - Gabrial
5. Race: Watchable - Alben Star - Mass Rally
6. Race: Top Of The Glas - Dusky Queen - Jacob Black
7. Race: Deauville Prince - Athletic - Earth Drummer
8. Race: Buthelezi - Pressure Point - Dark Ruler

Friday, September 19, 2014

Listed races at Ayr and Newbury

The Ayr Western Meeting continues today with Ayr still in the U.K. (thank heavens). Main feature is the listed race for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 16.45 CET, which has 15 runners and looks wide open. 4 of them ran last time in a similar race at York, which Mind of Madness (David Brown/ Jamie Spencer) won in a very tight finish. He is penalised for that and not certain to confirm the form and we prefer the filly Al Fareej (James Tate/ Kieren Fallon) who finished a close third. Squats (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning) is an obvious danger. The big betting race here is the Bronze Cup over 6 furlongs at 15.40, the third division of the Gold Cup, which is run tomorrow. With 26 runners this is almost impossible, and several trainers have more than one runner. Richard Fahey and David Nicholls always do well in these races, and we take Galvanize (Royston Ffrench) and Polski Max (Tony Hamilton) from their entries, but basically anthing can happen here. Our best bet here is Longshadow (Jason Ward/ Fallon) in the stayers handicap at 17.20; he has the form and we also like his pedigree- he is a Monsun half-brother to Group One winner Lady Marian.

There is also a listed race at Newbury - over 7 furlongs at 17.40. Absolutely So (Andrew Balding / Oisin Murphy) is our choice here to continue the stable´s good run. Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Robert Winston) has not run since Royal Ascot but has a Chance on his best form, while Safety Check (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), who has smart handicap form at this trip, looks the pick of the three-year-olds.

The Listowel meeting continues and today´s main feature for a change is a flat race, the 9 furlongs handicap at 17.10. This is another very tricky race but we shall again stick with the Ttam in form and choose 9yo Rock Critic (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen)

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Ayr Western Meeting starts today

It´s an important day in Scotland, as the Ayr Western Meeting - with its highlight the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday - starts today. There is also the minor matter of the referendum, but we won´t waste time on that. Today´s main feature is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.40 CET, which looks very tricky and is further complicated by the fact that 3 trainers have double entries here - Richard Fahey, Keith Dalgleish and Tim Easterby. Fahey won this last year with Hi There, who tries again under top weight with Graham Lee in the saddle, but the ground is possibly too fast for him and we prefer stable companion Ingleby Symphony (Tony Hamilton), a track specialist who is in great form and still nicely handicapped. Easterby´s best hope could be Maven /Rachel Richardson), while Dalgleish´s lightly-weighted 3yo Wee Frankie (Phillip Makin) also looks dangerous. However the other 3yo in the field, Fire Fighting (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) looks the one to beat; he is much improved since being fitted with blinkers, and although he is penalised for winning at Bath last Saturday, he seems to be on an upward curve and can strike again.

Yarmouth´s meeting ends today with a handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 17.50 as the best race. With only 7 runners, this still looks wide open, but Ryan Moore, who celebrates his 31st birthday today, can possibly score here on top-weight, William Haggas´ Dare to Achieve. he was 10 th in the Ebor last time, and this is much easier.

The Listowel Festival continues in Ireland with another mixed card - 4 flat races followed by 3 over jumps and a bumper. Top event here is the handicap hurdle at 17.35. Tony McCoy again has just the one ride- Eddy Harty´s Princeton Plains, who won the race back in 2011; he is well handicapped on that form, but is coming off a long break and the long dry spell in Ireland means that the going will be much faster than usual, which will not suit him at all. The Game Changer (Charlie Swan/ Jonathan Burke) is clearly the best performer here, but we cannot believe that he can concede so much weight, and our two against the field are Macnicholson (Jessica Harrington/ Barry Geraghty) and Pires (Tony Martin/Paul Townend).

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Listed races at 3 tracks today

Much better racing today and some strong cards for a Wednesday, headed by listed races at Sandown and Yarmouth, while in Ireland there is a listed race on the flat and also the valuable Kerry National at Listowel.

We start at Sandown where they go over a mile at 16.40 CET. Richard Hannon has two strong contenders here, Emell (Ryan Moore) and Producer (Richard Hughes), who have both been racing in much better company. Emell finished in front of Producer in a Goodwood Group Two, but on overall form the latter can possibly be preferred; however neither has won for ages and we shall look elsewhere. Empire Storm (Mike Attwater/ Robert Havlin) had some good form when trained in Germany, but his recent performances are not so encouraging. Tenor (John Ryan/ Adam Kirby) is one of the few who have winning form this year, in fact he has won 5 times already in 2014, but this is another step up and we are not so sure. The one we like best is Cordite (Mike Appleby/ James Doyle), who tried to run out when 5th in the German 2,000 Guineas back in May, but that form could still be good enough.

The third and final day of Yarmouth´s Eastern Meeting features a listed race for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs at 16.25. Newmarket-trained 3yo´s have dominated this race in recent seasons, and Hadaatha (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) and Water Hole (John Gosden/ William Buick) are the two that fit the bill. The latter has the best recent form, having been third in a Sandown group race last month, but we prefer the lightly-raced Hamdan runner, whose trainer - who sent out two Group One winners at the weekend- seems very confident. Albasharah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Freddie Tylicki) looks best of the older runners, but she has not run for over a year and seems to be a bit tricky.

The Listowel Harvest Festival runs all week, and today sees 4 flat races followed by 3 over jumps and a bumper. The listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.35 has runners from most oif the toip Irish stables and we expect it to lie between 4yo Tarana (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and 3yo Vintage Nouveau (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). Tarana beat several of these when winning at Galway 9 days ago, but we prefer the very lightly-raced Weld filly, whose third place under a huge weight in a good handicap last time reads very well.

However by far the most valuable race of the day is the Kerry National over 3 miles at 17.40. Surprisingly, Ireland´s top jumps owner JP McManus has never won this, but he is making a determined effort today with 5 runners, headed by top weight Alderwood with his main jockey Tony McCoy aboard. However we are not sure if he will stay this trip, and was brought down last time in the Galway Plate. Burn and Turn (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Balnaslow (Willie Mullins/ JJ Burke) were second and third there and obviously come on the short list today. Our main fancy however is Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who is inconsistent, but was second here last year and looks nicely handicapped now.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Listowel meeting continues

Once again we have poor racing in the U.K. but much better sport in Ireland where the Listowel mixed meeting continues. The 2 mile handicap hurdle for 4yo´s at 18.10 CET is the most valuable race of the day and has attracted quite a competitive field. AP McCoy is here to partner Charles O´Brien´s Shutter Island, who has won his last two races but faces better opposition this time. He gets quite a lot of weight from Orgiglo Bay(JC McConnell/ Kevin Sexton), who was placed at the Cheltenham Festival, and McKinley (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), who has won last two races in good style, The latter defeated Denis Hogan´s Ridestan at Galway, but at these weights we choose the last-named to score in a tricky race. Mullins and Townend can however take the novice chase at 17.40 with Devil´s Bride, who looks very promising. Despite the name, this is a gelding, and after winning two bumpers and a hurdle race, he is undefeated after two races over fences and looks a possible future star. He has to concede weight all round here, but we hope he is good enough.

The U.K. racing is very weak. Yarmouth starts a 3-day-Festival Meeting, but fields are very small and the quality poor. The most interesting event is the 6 furlongs conditions race at 18.30, where most of the 6 runners are formerly smart performers but are now out of form, for example Khubala (Hugo Palmer/ William Buick), sixth in the Goldene Peitsche last year, or Rex Imperator (William Haggas/ Andrea Atzeni), who won the Stewards Cup, or Krypton Factor (George Peckham, Luke Morris), who has run several good races at Meydan. However our choice is CD specialist Royal Rock (Chris Wall/ Ted Durcan), who has won this race twice before; he is 10, but ran well enough in a similar race at Doncaster to suggest that he can score again here.

Monday, September 15, 2014

4 poor meetings today

The usual dreary Monday fare in the U.K., and the Irish racing, where there are 4 flat races at Listowel followed by 3 over hurdles, is better. The fillies maiden over a mile at 16.35 CET sees a clash between Adeste Fideles (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Comtesse (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), both very well-bred and lightly-raced; they were both beaten at odds-on last time and clearly not everything has gone to plan, but they must surely dominate these opponents. The most valuable race of the day comes half an hour later, a handicap for 2yo´s over the same distance. O´Brien has two of the 6 runners here, but we prefer the least exposed runner, Ernest Shackleton (Jessica Harrington( Niall McCullough), who showed improved form when third at Galway a week ago. Over hurdles we like Specific Gravity (Adrian McGuinness/ Andrew Lynch) at 18.35; he was only fifth on his hurdling debut, but should have learned from that and was much better class than these opponents on the flat.

The seaside track at Brighton stages its last meeting of the year today, a sure sign that summer is almost over. The 6 furlongs handicap at 17.50 is the most interesting event; Panther Patrol (Eve Johnson Houghton/ John Fahy) has won his last 4 races, including this CD; he has gone up 15 lbs but could still score again.

At Musselburgh Jim Goldie and Graham Lee can land the two staying handicaps with top-weight Merchant of Dubai at 16.40 and Alexsandar half an hour later; in both cases the Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton runners look to be the biggest dangers.

Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have had a disappointing season - up to yesterday that is, when they had their first ever Group One victory in the Irish St. Leger. They can continue in this vein with Capo Rosso, who has top weight in the 8 1/2 furlongs handicap at 17.30 at Wolverhampton.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Group One races at the Curragh today

Today´s cards in the U.K. can be safely ignored, as there is far more interest, much better racing and also much greater betting opportunities to be found in Ireland, where the second day of Irish Champions Weekend offers a splendid card at the Curragh, with 3 Group One races. Yorkshire trainers won the last 3 races in Leopardstown yesterday, notably of course in the Irish Champion, where Ryan Moore outrode Joseph O´Brien, and there is a strong British challenge again today -. but no Ryan Moore, who is at Longchamp.

The best race is the Irish St. Leger at 17.50 CET, which clashes with yesterday´s version at Doncaster, but with one significant difference: while Doncaster is still a true classic, i.e. for 3yo´s only, the Irish version is for all ages and in fact not a single 3yo runs today. However the distance is the same, and the common factor is that last year´s Doncaster winner Leading Light (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is hot favourite to win at the Curragh today. He is unbeaten this season, including in the Gold Cup and in the main trial, and has in fact only lost once in the last two years- in last year´s Arc on heavy ground. Also in the line-up is controversial 2012 Doncaster winner Encke (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby), who however has only run oince since, and fellow Godolphin Willing Foe (Saeed bin Suroor/ Fran Berry), up in class, while the otjher two British runners are Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), very consistent but well held on Ascot form and probably unsuited by the going, and Pallasator (Sir Mark Prescott/ Andrea Atzeni), also up in grade, but he ran a great race under a huge weight in the Ebor and in our opinion has a good e.w. chance. However the main danger is the mare Pale Mimosa (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) from a stable with an excellent record in this race. She was beaten by Leading Light earlier in the year, but has improved since, has clearly been aimed at this race and the form of her York defeat of Estimate reads well enough.

The other two Group Ones are for 2yo´s, for fillies over 7 furlongs at 16.40 and for colts over a mile at 17.15. The O´Brien´s should certainly take the latter race with Gleneagles, clrearly one of ther stable´s top juveniles, with British challenger Dutch Art (Charlie Hills/ George Baker) probably next best. O´Brien has 4 runners in the fillies race, with Joseph partnering Found, an impressive winner at 14-1 on her debut 3 weeks ago. She could be anything, but on form one has to prefer Newmarket raider Cursory Glance (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), runner-up in the Lowther Stakes, who can complete a great weekend for trainer and jockey.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Discussiontofollow - Out Do - Watchable
2. Race: Tarfasha - Chicquita - Mango Diva
3. Race: Stepper Point - Extortionist - Fountain Of Youth
4. Race: Cursory Glance - Found - Lucida
5. Race: Dutch Connection - Hall Of Fame - Toscanini
6. Race: Encke - Pale Mimosa - Pallasator
7. Race: Realtra - Explosive Lady - Diaz
8. Race: Artful Artist - Adjusted - Panama Hat

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown

There is a late start today at Leopardstown, which stages ist biggest flat meeting of the year, and this will enable Messrs Moore, Doyle and Hanagan to fly over from Doncaster, where they all ride in the St. Leger, to ride in the Irish Champion Stakes at 19.50 CET three hours later. However the mlost they can hope for is place mondey, asAustralia (Aidan and Joseph O´Btriermn) Looks the cefrtainty of the day. The dual Derby winner won the big York race over this distance last time, and there seems to freason at all why The Grey Gatsby (Kevin Ryan/ Moore) or Mukhadram (William Haggas/ Hanagan) should now reverse that form. Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ Doyle) and Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) finished second and third to The Fugúe last year, but was no Australia in the field then, and this 3yo, described by the trainer as his "best ever" looks the real deal. The only questions are - how easily will he win (answer: very), who will finish second (we don´t know) and where does he go from here? If he ran in the Arc he would certainly be a hot favourite, but all the signs are that he will wait for Champions Day at Ascot and either go for the Champion Stakes there or - best of all- take on Kingman jn the QEII.

The filles race over a mile at 18.45 is also a Group One and we will be interested to see how French raider Kenhope (Henri-Alex Pantall/ Christophe Lemaire) gets on after her easy win at Düsseldorf. The most she can hope for here is probably third place, as the O´Briens´ Tapestry and Rizeena (Clive Brittain/ Ryan Moore) stand out here. Tapestray won the Yorkshire Oaks but is down in trip here and is held by Rizeena on Ascot form. Brittain sounds very bullish - he always is, but we think he is right to be here, the only problem being whether the jockey makes it in time.

The other group races can go to Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen, who can score at 17.05 with Tombelaine, at 18.15 with Free Eagle and an hlour later with Mustajeeb.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tamadhor - Chinese Light - Bocca Baciata
2. Race: Tombelaine - East India - Bertie Le Belge
3. Race: Wexford Town - Bayan - Cassells Rock
4. Race: Free Eagle - Hall Of Mirrors - Brendan Brackan
5. Race: Tapestry - Rizeena - Fiesolana
6. Race: Gordon Lord Byron - Mustajeeb - Darwin
7. Race: The Grey Gatsby - Mukhadram - Al Kazeem
8. Race: Stay De Night - Dalkova - Piri Wango

Doncaster St. Leger

Today marks the climax of the Doncaster St. Leger Festival, with the race itself, the world´s oldest classic, as the main feature. at 16.50 CET. Three stables have dominated this race in recent seasons, John Gosden with 4 runners, Aidan O´Brien also with 4 and Godolphin (6), who have no runner today. O´Brien, who has bigger fish to fry at home today, saddles only one- Granddukeroftuscany (Colm O´Donoghue), who looks well held on form. Gosden has better chances with 3 runners, of whom two Forever Now (Frankie Dettori) and Romsdal (William Buick) certainly come into the reckoning. The stable jockey prefers Romsdal, third in the Derby, but his recent form does not inspire us and we prefer Frankie´s mount, who just held on from Alex My Boy (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) and King´s Fete (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) at Goodwood. Also at Goodwood we saw Snow Sky (Stoute/ James Doyle) win the Gordon Stakes from Windshear (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Somewhat (Johnston/ Franny Norton), while Snow Sky was then runner-up at York in the main trial with more of these further back. Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) was runner-up in the Derby, which would give him a good chance, but his only run since was in the Eclipse over a shorter distance; he is not certain to stay, while the ground is also against him. He could still win, but we atre sceptical. With question marks over many of tner leading fancies, we shall go for an outsider here - Scotland (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley); he ran badly at Goodwood, on a track that did not suit him, but his Royal Ascot form was decent and as a son of Monsun should have no trouble with the distance.

The card opens with the Group Two Champagne Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.05, which looks between Estidhkaar (Hannon/ Hanagan), an impressive winner of a similar event at Newmarket two months ago and clearly one of the best 2yo´s so far seen out, and Belardo (Varian/ Atzeni), a very easy winner of a listed race last time and well worth a try in this grade.

The Park Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.15 is another Group Two and should mainly concern Aljamaaheer (Varian/ Hanagan) and Gregorian (Gosden/Buick), who are both running over their best distance here. They both ran in the July Cup last time, with the latter doing much better in third, while the former also finished third behind Slade Power at Royal Ascot. The joker in the pack here is Cable Bay (Charlie Hills/ Dettori), a top 2yo last season and runner-up in the Dewhurst, but well beaten on his only start in 2014.

The big betting race is the Portland Handicap over just short of 6 furlongs at 15.40, which like all the big sprint handicaps looks fiendishly difficult, with many of the runners having met at a similar level at York and Royal Ascot. Our 3 against the field are Out Do (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has only been raised 3 lbs for winning at Ripon, Seeking Magic (Clive Cox/ Ryan Tate), who did not get the run of the race in the Stewards Cup, and Magical Macey (David Barron/ Phillip Makin), a cllose 5th here last year and now better off at the weights.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Estidhkaar - Belardo - Glenalmond
2. Race: Muthmir - Intrinsic - Compton Park
3. Race: Aljamaaheer - Gregorian - Ansgar
4. Race: Kingston Hill - Snow Sky - Romsdal
5. Race: Mighty Yar - Mount Logan - Forgotten Hero
6. Race: Marshall Jennings - Dance Of Fire - Jargon
7. Race: Velox - Maverick Wave - Bronze Angel

Friday, September 12, 2014

Doncaster St. Leger meeting: day three

Doncaster continues with another strong card headed by three Group Two races, the main event being the Doncaster Cup over 2 1/4 miles at 15.40 CET, the last of the so-called "cup races" over long distances. Most of the runners are familiar friends as they run repeatedly in these events and the two to concentrate on are Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), a Monsun filly owned by the Queen and CD specialist Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ William Buick), winner of this race for the past two years. They met last time at York where Estimate finished strongly to be runner-up with Times Up well held in third and we expect the Queen´s filly to confirm that form; she had earlier also been runner-up in the Gold Cup, a race she won last year, and has beaten most of these at one time or other. She can be excused a poor run at Goodwood, a track that does not suit her and we expect her to score today, although Times Up, at his favourite track, should not be underestimated.

Another Group Two is the May Hill Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile at 16.15. Godolphin has won this for the past 4 years but has no runner today. However there could still be a Maktoum winner as Sheikh Hamdan´s Muraaqaba (Mark Johnston/ Paul Hanagan) is the likely favourite after winning the German-sponsored Sweet Solera, a race which is usually a good guide to this. However we feel that this year´s edition was not quite as strong and prefer Irish raider Agnes Stewart (Eddie Lynam/ Willie Lee), runner-up last time to a smart performer at Leopardstown in a race whose form is working out much better. The well-bred Shagah (Richard Hannon/ Frankie Dettori) seems to have been overlooked here and could be an interesting each-way bet at a big price.

The card opens with the Group Two Flying Childers for 3yo´s over 5 furlongs at 14.40. Some very speedy types are entered here, including two fancied Irish runners of which the unbeaten filly Ainippe (Ger Lyons/ Andrea Atzeni) is probably the better. However the clear form choice has to be Ahlan Emeratti (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jimmy Fortune) who has been running well in the top juvenile races.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cotai Glory - Ainippe - Ahlan Emarati
2. Race: Adventure Seeker - Stomachion - Elidor
3. Race: Estimate - Times Up - Whiplash Willie
4. Race: Muraaqaba - Agnes Stewart - Alonsoa
5. Race: Danzeno - Badr Al Badoor - Sir Reginald
6. Race: Nafaqa - White Lake - Toocoolforschool
7. Race: Enobled - Loving Home - Innsbruck

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Doncaster St. Leger meeting: day two

We have complained often enough in recent days about small fields, but there is certainly no reason for complaint today. Over 120 runners are expected to contest the 8 races on the second day at Doncaster´s St. Leger Festival, while there are double figure fields in most of the races at Epsom and Chepstow this afternoon as well, as well as at Wolverhampton´s evening meeting on tapeta and the Irish meeting at Clonmel, where 4 flat races are followed by 3 over hurdles.

It´s Ladies Day at Doncaster, where 4 races are reserved for fillies, including the main feature, the Group Two Park Hill Stakes over the full St. Leger distance of 1 3/4+ miles at 15.40 CET. Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ George Baker) gets her chance here to make up for last year´s bad luck, when she fell when still in with a chance; on her best form, e.g. last year´s Ascot victory, she must have good prospects here. The main danger must be Venus de Milo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), whose latest poor form in the Yorkshire Oaks should be ignored; she is better judged on her second place in the same race last year and is in fact top-rated here. Consistent Arabian Comet (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning) is the best of the 3yo´s but we expect a victory for the older fillies here.

However the 3yo´s should dominate the Group Three Sceptre Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.10. Most of these have met before, with varying results. For example, J Wonder (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) won the Fred Darling Stakes back in April with Al Thakhira (Marco Botti/ Frankie Dettori) beaten a head in second and Frankel´s half-sister Joyeuse (Lady Cecil/ Ryan Moore) a close third. At today´s weights Al Thakhira could come out on top this time, but it is noticeable that the owner´s main jockey prefers Bragging (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) to Joyeuse, Evita Peron (Ralph Beckett/ Richard Kingscote) finished well behind Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) at Deauville last time, but this German 1,000 Guineas fourth could still run well at a a big price.

The most valuable race of the day is the 2yo sales race over 6 1/2 furlongs at 16.15, which with 21 runners looks tougher than any handicap. The O´Brien´s again have the top-rated runner in The Great War, but he is no certainty at these weights, and both Lexington Times (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Mattmu (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) look very dangerous on these terms.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Vesnina - Gregoria - Persun
2. Race: Bragging - Muteela - J Wonder
3. Race: Venus De Milo - Seal Of Approval - Arabian Comet
4. Race: Fox Trotter - The Great War - Lexington Times
5. Race: Long Cross - The Corsican - Elhaame
6. Race: Blue Waltz - Flippant - Limousine
7. Race: Secateur - King Of Normandy - Mohatem
8. Race: Mission Approved - Doc Hay - Bajan Bear

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Doncaster St. Leger meeting starts today

The Doncaster St.Leger Meeting starts today and goes on until Saturday, when the world´s oldest classic race will be run. Today´s card is probably the weakest of the 4 days, but it is still much better than the fare usually offered on a Wednesday with the listed Scarborough Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET the main event. The race revolves around Reckless Abandon (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby), who was Europe´s top 2yo in 2012 but has only raced 4 times since. If he is anyhere near his best he should win this and at least he has the jockey on board who always rode for him when he was trained by Clive Cox. Kingsgate Native (Robert Cowell/ Ryan Moore) was also a Group One horse in younger days, but he is now 9 and not as fast as he used to be, and probably needs faster ground anyway. He holds Steps (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), also a very smart sprinter with 8 wins - all over this trip- to his credit, on their form from July in Sandown. A possible each-way alternative to the favourites is Swan Song (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), the nicely-named last foal of the great Lochsong, representing a team in top form; 3yo´s have a poor record here, but both Mecca´s Angel (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) and Online Alexander (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer) have chances.

Godolphin now own Reckless Abandon and they also have prospects of winning the conditions race over 10 furlongs at 17.10 with two fancied runners; however our choice here is Nabucco (John Gosden/ Williamj Buick) from a stable with an excellent record at this meeting.

A race which is bound to attract plenty of Attention is the mile "Leger Legends Stakes" at 16.35, in which the jockeys will probably finish more tired than the horses, as it is for veteran jockeys, some of whom have been out of the saddle for ages. We would love to see our old friend Billy Newnes win this on Nigel Tinkler´s Cliff, but he looks held by Tiger Jim (Jim Goldie/ George Duffield); with the Balding stable going so well, we shall take a chance on Kevin Darley´s fitness and tip Comanchero.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Salateen - Only Joking - When Will It End
2. Race: Angelic Lord - Prince Bonnaire - Fuwairt
3. Race: Reckless Abandon - Kingsgate Native - Steps
4. Race: Comanchero - Tiger Jim - Dansili Dutch
5. Race: Red Galileo - Nabucco - Clon Brulee
6. Race: Marmoom - Wilde Inspiration - Lincoln
7. Race: Dangerous Age - Pea Shooter - Tom Sawyer

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Graded N.H. race in Ireland

Once again the best race of the day comes from the Irish meeting at Galway, but this time over jumps- the graded novice chase at 19.20 CET. There are some big fields at Galway but only 6 line up for this and it looks as the mercy of Aleichi Inois (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), who looks another potential star for the Mullins stable. He was quite useful over hurdles but has really come into his own after being sent chasing and is unbeaten in 3 starts over fences, including this CD. He has a lot of weight, but it will be quite a surprise if he is beaten this evening.

There are alaso two jumps Meetings in the U.K., at Perth and Wprcester but wuth small fields and few races of betting interest. At the Scottish track the strong raiding party from Ireland should go home with a few winners, while at Worcester we are interested in Lysino in the novices handicap chase at 16.10; the half-brother to German Derby winner Lucky Speed has won on the flat in both England and Germany, and also over hurdles in the U.K.; he goes chasing for the first time here.

The two flat meetings at Leicester and Redcar are mainly low grade. Best race at the former track is the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.20, which looks wide open; are two against the field are the consistent Outback Traveller (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick), who has won 4 of his 8 starts and is probably capable of further improvement, and Askaud (Scott Dixon/ Freddie Tylicki), who has ben out of form but is now well handicapped and has a good CD record.Most of the runners in the handicap over the straight mile at 17.00 at Redcar look very exposed; the exception is Almuheet (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift), one of the two 3yo´s in the field, who has been running in better company; he is drawn out wide, but that should make no difference at this track.

Monday, September 08, 2014

Listed race in Ireland this evening

Back from Baden-Baden (and we still think there is a good chance of a German winner at Longchamp next month!) to more humdrum fare in Britain today, but once again there is much better racing in Ireland, with a listed race for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 19.35 CET. Aidan O´Brien won it last year and is trying hard again- with no fewer than 5 of the 12 runners. His son Joseph rides the very well-bred Shell House, who is probably the stable´s main hope, But she is no world-beater, while the family-owned Beyond Brilliance,. ridden by daughter Ana, would have a chance on her fourth place in the Irish Oaks but runs far too often for our taste- this is her 15th start this year. We expect the Aga Khan to have the winner, and must choose between the 4yo Tarana (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and the 3yo Ebeyina (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen); we prefer the latter, who is lightly-raced but very promising, but she probably needs some rain to help her. Altesse (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is the joker in the pack, having run only once - when easily winning a modest maiden 17 days ago; obviously that form is not enough, but she probably has bags of improvement in her.

We certainly expect O´Brien to go home with a winner and his best chance in our view is in the first race at 17.35, a 2yo maiden over 8 1/2 furlongs, where he has again made a multiple entry. Joseph is on Archangel Raphael, who made an excellent debut when beaten a neck by a Weld hotpot, and he looks the one. Aidan´s policy of putting his children up had paid dividends, and his 16yo son Donnacha rode his first winner yesterday; here is on Song of Love, but we fear he must leave his elder brother to score.

There are some big fields in Galway and competitive racing, but the 3 U.K. cards - 2 of them jumping- have small fields and are generally unattractive for betting purposes. If all 8 run, bottom-weight Captain George (James Fanshawe/ George Baker) could have an each-way chance in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00 at Brighton.

Wednesday, September 03, 2014

5 poor meetings today

Only modest sport on offer at today´s 5 meetings, even the Irish evening card at Gowran Park is weak; it is hardly an evening fixture either with the first race at 17.30 CET. The most interesting runner here is the well-bred Adeste Fideles (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) in the fillies maiden over 7 furlongs at 18.00. She was beaten in good company on her debut 15 months ago and has not raced since, which hardly bodes well; but as the daughter of a classic winner, she ought to win here and anyway needs a win to boost her stud value.

Another offspring of a classpc winner is Godolphin´s Fast Delivery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni) who runs in the 10 furlongs for 3yo´s at 18.05 at Lingfield; he is out of Preis der Diana winner Rosenreihe. He has been gelded since a disastrous performance at Goodwood´s May Meeting and we hope he runs a bit better today. Lightly-raced Shama´s Crown (Jeremy Noseda/ Kieren Fallon) and Vrood (James Fanshawe/ Tom Queally) are probably the main dangers.

Most of the jockeys at Lingfield will be travelling up to the evening meeting at Kempton, where Fallon might score on Clive Brittain´s Dalaki - beaten a nose last time at Brighton- at 20.10, while Atzeni rides Sleeper for Ralph Beckett, who is going for a fourtimer an hour later

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Mainly Handicaps

No races of great importance today, but some interesting handicaps. The best betting race is the 6 furlongs handicap at Hamilton at 18.00 CET, the final of the Scottish Sprint Series. This looks wide open but we will hope for a Scottish winner with Jinky (Linda Perrett/ Joe Fanning). He was well behind the consistent Alexandrakollontai AC Whillans/ Julie Burke) in this race last year, but is much better handicapped this time and can reverse the form at today´s weights.

The best race at Goodwood, where there are some very small fields, is the 2 miles handicap at 17.40. When Richard Fahey books Ryan Moore he means business, but his candidate Spice Fair has never run beyond 1 1/2 miles so one has to be a bit cautious, while Spice Fair (Mark Usher/ Richard Hughes) has been in great form this season but is on his highest ever rating. Mark Johnston is always to be feared in staying races here and has booked the top claimer Cam Hardie for Special Fighter, the only 3yo in the field, but he looks a bit difficult. Statutory (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni) has run some good races in defeat, including last time when fourth in a big field at York,and he is the selection.

At Kempton this evening the best races are the two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap. In the first division at 21.20, the two unexposed 3yo´s Crazy Chic (Marco Botti/ Mark Monaghan) and Goner With The Wind (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) are probably the most interesting runners, while half an hour later we shall take a chance on top-weight Meritocracy (Paul Cole/ Jim Crowley), who usually runs well here and is still reasonably handicapped.

Monday, September 01, 2014

Slowfoot debut at Huntingdon

Evening racing on turf has finished in the U.K. for 2014, but are still some twilight meetings in Ireland, as for example today at Roscommon, where the first race starts at 17.45 CET. Four flat races are followed by two over hurdles and a bumper, and Willie Mullins could well land a double with Killer Crow (Emmet Mullins) - already an easy winner of two bumpers - in the maiden hurdle at 19.45, and Captain Carol in the bumper an hour later with son Paddy in the saddle. The maiden hurdle at 15.10 at Huntingdon is the most interesting race in England from the German point of view, as it sees the British debut of Slowfoot (Jim Best/ Tony McCoy), one of the best German stayers of recent years when trained by Markus Klug. He has not run since November and the distance of two miles and half a furlong will probably not play to his strength on this sharp track, but we still expect him to win here and we hope go on to better things. At Brighton, we like the well-bred Darting (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00, and the trainer can possibly complete an across-the-card double with Scoppio del Carro (David Probert) at 15.10 at Leicester, although if Special Miss (Ali Brewer/ Jim Crowley) reappears under a penalty after her Sandown win on Saturday she would be hard to beat.

Huntingdon - betting forecast:
1. Race: My Nosy Rosy - Cusheen Bridge - Stay In My Heart
2. Race: Milgen Bay - Moorlands Jack - Epee Celeste
3. Race: Workbench - Parc Des Princes - Vermouth Bleu
4. Race: Presenting The Way - Sir Lynx - Viking Ridge
5. Race: Dr Dalwhinny - Imperial Plan - That`s A Fact
6. Race: Orsm - Dazzling Rita - Top Billing
7. Race: Its Pandorama - Seacon Beg - Bow Belle