Monday, September 29, 2014

graded N.H. race in Ireland

the best race in Britain and Ireland today is the graded novice chase at 17.05 CET at Roscommon. Only 6 line up and probably only two of them have a serious chance - Ted Veale (Tony Martin/ Barry Geraghty) and Un Beau Romain (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend). Both of them were useful hurdlers, especially the former who won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013, and have already won over fences. Although Ted Veale was higher rated over hurdles, we would not be surprised to see Un Beau Romain come out on top here, as he seems to be a young chaser with plenty of potential.
In the U.K. there is jumping at Newton Abbot, where Tony McCoy has some good rides. He partners the enigmaitic Agapanthus (Neil Mulholland) in the handicap hurdle at 18.00; this Schlenderhan-bred 9yo was once thought good enough to run in the German Derby, but has been in the main very disappointing. However this is a very poor race and he can certainly score off this rating if in the right mood. The most interesting race here is the novice chase at 17.00, and just as in Ireland there are only two with a chance: Court Minstrel (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Keltus (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), both smart hurdlers and both making their chasing debuts here.
The flat racing at Bath and Hamilton is very poor, with sprint handicaps the top races at both tracks. Red Lady (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) is in great form and can take the race at 16.50 at Bath; she loves this fast ground and is 2/2 over this CD, including last time out.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Devonshire - Blue Fragrance - Shine On
2. Race: Chillie Billie - Mctaggart - Have A Nice Day
3. Race: Beyond Intensity - Dai Bando - Ardmore
4. Race: Shadagann - Mr Snagsby - Gaelic Twist
5. Race: Shake The Bucket - Enjoy Responsibly - The Black Russian
6. Race: Aranhill Chief - Pat Garrett - Cross Appeal
7. Race: Redrobin - Jamesmicheal - Cherry Lodge
8. Race: Steel Wave - Credo Star - Lady Aoife