Saturday, September 13, 2014

Doncaster St. Leger

Today marks the climax of the Doncaster St. Leger Festival, with the race itself, the world´s oldest classic, as the main feature. at 16.50 CET. Three stables have dominated this race in recent seasons, John Gosden with 4 runners, Aidan O´Brien also with 4 and Godolphin (6), who have no runner today. O´Brien, who has bigger fish to fry at home today, saddles only one- Granddukeroftuscany (Colm O´Donoghue), who looks well held on form. Gosden has better chances with 3 runners, of whom two Forever Now (Frankie Dettori) and Romsdal (William Buick) certainly come into the reckoning. The stable jockey prefers Romsdal, third in the Derby, but his recent form does not inspire us and we prefer Frankie´s mount, who just held on from Alex My Boy (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) and King´s Fete (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) at Goodwood. Also at Goodwood we saw Snow Sky (Stoute/ James Doyle) win the Gordon Stakes from Windshear (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Somewhat (Johnston/ Franny Norton), while Snow Sky was then runner-up at York in the main trial with more of these further back. Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) was runner-up in the Derby, which would give him a good chance, but his only run since was in the Eclipse over a shorter distance; he is not certain to stay, while the ground is also against him. He could still win, but we atre sceptical. With question marks over many of tner leading fancies, we shall go for an outsider here - Scotland (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley); he ran badly at Goodwood, on a track that did not suit him, but his Royal Ascot form was decent and as a son of Monsun should have no trouble with the distance.

The card opens with the Group Two Champagne Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.05, which looks between Estidhkaar (Hannon/ Hanagan), an impressive winner of a similar event at Newmarket two months ago and clearly one of the best 2yo´s so far seen out, and Belardo (Varian/ Atzeni), a very easy winner of a listed race last time and well worth a try in this grade.

The Park Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.15 is another Group Two and should mainly concern Aljamaaheer (Varian/ Hanagan) and Gregorian (Gosden/Buick), who are both running over their best distance here. They both ran in the July Cup last time, with the latter doing much better in third, while the former also finished third behind Slade Power at Royal Ascot. The joker in the pack here is Cable Bay (Charlie Hills/ Dettori), a top 2yo last season and runner-up in the Dewhurst, but well beaten on his only start in 2014.

The big betting race is the Portland Handicap over just short of 6 furlongs at 15.40, which like all the big sprint handicaps looks fiendishly difficult, with many of the runners having met at a similar level at York and Royal Ascot. Our 3 against the field are Out Do (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has only been raised 3 lbs for winning at Ripon, Seeking Magic (Clive Cox/ Ryan Tate), who did not get the run of the race in the Stewards Cup, and Magical Macey (David Barron/ Phillip Makin), a cllose 5th here last year and now better off at the weights.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Estidhkaar - Belardo - Glenalmond
2. Race: Muthmir - Intrinsic - Compton Park
3. Race: Aljamaaheer - Gregorian - Ansgar
4. Race: Kingston Hill - Snow Sky - Romsdal
5. Race: Mighty Yar - Mount Logan - Forgotten Hero
6. Race: Marshall Jennings - Dance Of Fire - Jargon
7. Race: Velox - Maverick Wave - Bronze Angel