Thursday, September 11, 2014

Doncaster St. Leger meeting: day two

We have complained often enough in recent days about small fields, but there is certainly no reason for complaint today. Over 120 runners are expected to contest the 8 races on the second day at Doncaster´s St. Leger Festival, while there are double figure fields in most of the races at Epsom and Chepstow this afternoon as well, as well as at Wolverhampton´s evening meeting on tapeta and the Irish meeting at Clonmel, where 4 flat races are followed by 3 over hurdles.

It´s Ladies Day at Doncaster, where 4 races are reserved for fillies, including the main feature, the Group Two Park Hill Stakes over the full St. Leger distance of 1 3/4+ miles at 15.40 CET. Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ George Baker) gets her chance here to make up for last year´s bad luck, when she fell when still in with a chance; on her best form, e.g. last year´s Ascot victory, she must have good prospects here. The main danger must be Venus de Milo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), whose latest poor form in the Yorkshire Oaks should be ignored; she is better judged on her second place in the same race last year and is in fact top-rated here. Consistent Arabian Comet (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning) is the best of the 3yo´s but we expect a victory for the older fillies here.

However the 3yo´s should dominate the Group Three Sceptre Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.10. Most of these have met before, with varying results. For example, J Wonder (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) won the Fred Darling Stakes back in April with Al Thakhira (Marco Botti/ Frankie Dettori) beaten a head in second and Frankel´s half-sister Joyeuse (Lady Cecil/ Ryan Moore) a close third. At today´s weights Al Thakhira could come out on top this time, but it is noticeable that the owner´s main jockey prefers Bragging (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) to Joyeuse, Evita Peron (Ralph Beckett/ Richard Kingscote) finished well behind Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) at Deauville last time, but this German 1,000 Guineas fourth could still run well at a a big price.

The most valuable race of the day is the 2yo sales race over 6 1/2 furlongs at 16.15, which with 21 runners looks tougher than any handicap. The O´Brien´s again have the top-rated runner in The Great War, but he is no certainty at these weights, and both Lexington Times (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Mattmu (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) look very dangerous on these terms.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Vesnina - Gregoria - Persun
2. Race: Bragging - Muteela - J Wonder
3. Race: Venus De Milo - Seal Of Approval - Arabian Comet
4. Race: Fox Trotter - The Great War - Lexington Times
5. Race: Long Cross - The Corsican - Elhaame
6. Race: Blue Waltz - Flippant - Limousine
7. Race: Secateur - King Of Normandy - Mohatem
8. Race: Mission Approved - Doc Hay - Bajan Bear