Monday, September 08, 2014

Listed race in Ireland this evening

Back from Baden-Baden (and we still think there is a good chance of a German winner at Longchamp next month!) to more humdrum fare in Britain today, but once again there is much better racing in Ireland, with a listed race for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 19.35 CET. Aidan O´Brien won it last year and is trying hard again- with no fewer than 5 of the 12 runners. His son Joseph rides the very well-bred Shell House, who is probably the stable´s main hope, But she is no world-beater, while the family-owned Beyond Brilliance,. ridden by daughter Ana, would have a chance on her fourth place in the Irish Oaks but runs far too often for our taste- this is her 15th start this year. We expect the Aga Khan to have the winner, and must choose between the 4yo Tarana (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and the 3yo Ebeyina (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen); we prefer the latter, who is lightly-raced but very promising, but she probably needs some rain to help her. Altesse (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is the joker in the pack, having run only once - when easily winning a modest maiden 17 days ago; obviously that form is not enough, but she probably has bags of improvement in her.

We certainly expect O´Brien to go home with a winner and his best chance in our view is in the first race at 17.35, a 2yo maiden over 8 1/2 furlongs, where he has again made a multiple entry. Joseph is on Archangel Raphael, who made an excellent debut when beaten a neck by a Weld hotpot, and he looks the one. Aidan´s policy of putting his children up had paid dividends, and his 16yo son Donnacha rode his first winner yesterday; here is on Song of Love, but we fear he must leave his elder brother to score.

There are some big fields in Galway and competitive racing, but the 3 U.K. cards - 2 of them jumping- have small fields and are generally unattractive for betting purposes. If all 8 run, bottom-weight Captain George (James Fanshawe/ George Baker) could have an each-way chance in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00 at Brighton.