Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Listed races at 3 tracks today

Much better racing today and some strong cards for a Wednesday, headed by listed races at Sandown and Yarmouth, while in Ireland there is a listed race on the flat and also the valuable Kerry National at Listowel.

We start at Sandown where they go over a mile at 16.40 CET. Richard Hannon has two strong contenders here, Emell (Ryan Moore) and Producer (Richard Hughes), who have both been racing in much better company. Emell finished in front of Producer in a Goodwood Group Two, but on overall form the latter can possibly be preferred; however neither has won for ages and we shall look elsewhere. Empire Storm (Mike Attwater/ Robert Havlin) had some good form when trained in Germany, but his recent performances are not so encouraging. Tenor (John Ryan/ Adam Kirby) is one of the few who have winning form this year, in fact he has won 5 times already in 2014, but this is another step up and we are not so sure. The one we like best is Cordite (Mike Appleby/ James Doyle), who tried to run out when 5th in the German 2,000 Guineas back in May, but that form could still be good enough.

The third and final day of Yarmouth´s Eastern Meeting features a listed race for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs at 16.25. Newmarket-trained 3yo´s have dominated this race in recent seasons, and Hadaatha (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) and Water Hole (John Gosden/ William Buick) are the two that fit the bill. The latter has the best recent form, having been third in a Sandown group race last month, but we prefer the lightly-raced Hamdan runner, whose trainer - who sent out two Group One winners at the weekend- seems very confident. Albasharah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Freddie Tylicki) looks best of the older runners, but she has not run for over a year and seems to be a bit tricky.

The Listowel Harvest Festival runs all week, and today sees 4 flat races followed by 3 over jumps and a bumper. The listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.35 has runners from most oif the toip Irish stables and we expect it to lie between 4yo Tarana (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and 3yo Vintage Nouveau (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). Tarana beat several of these when winning at Galway 9 days ago, but we prefer the very lightly-raced Weld filly, whose third place under a huge weight in a good handicap last time reads very well.

However by far the most valuable race of the day is the Kerry National over 3 miles at 17.40. Surprisingly, Ireland´s top jumps owner JP McManus has never won this, but he is making a determined effort today with 5 runners, headed by top weight Alderwood with his main jockey Tony McCoy aboard. However we are not sure if he will stay this trip, and was brought down last time in the Galway Plate. Burn and Turn (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Balnaslow (Willie Mullins/ JJ Burke) were second and third there and obviously come on the short list today. Our main fancy however is Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who is inconsistent, but was second here last year and looks nicely handicapped now.