Sunday, September 14, 2014

Group One races at the Curragh today

Today´s cards in the U.K. can be safely ignored, as there is far more interest, much better racing and also much greater betting opportunities to be found in Ireland, where the second day of Irish Champions Weekend offers a splendid card at the Curragh, with 3 Group One races. Yorkshire trainers won the last 3 races in Leopardstown yesterday, notably of course in the Irish Champion, where Ryan Moore outrode Joseph O´Brien, and there is a strong British challenge again today -. but no Ryan Moore, who is at Longchamp.

The best race is the Irish St. Leger at 17.50 CET, which clashes with yesterday´s version at Doncaster, but with one significant difference: while Doncaster is still a true classic, i.e. for 3yo´s only, the Irish version is for all ages and in fact not a single 3yo runs today. However the distance is the same, and the common factor is that last year´s Doncaster winner Leading Light (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is hot favourite to win at the Curragh today. He is unbeaten this season, including in the Gold Cup and in the main trial, and has in fact only lost once in the last two years- in last year´s Arc on heavy ground. Also in the line-up is controversial 2012 Doncaster winner Encke (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby), who however has only run oince since, and fellow Godolphin Willing Foe (Saeed bin Suroor/ Fran Berry), up in class, while the otjher two British runners are Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), very consistent but well held on Ascot form and probably unsuited by the going, and Pallasator (Sir Mark Prescott/ Andrea Atzeni), also up in grade, but he ran a great race under a huge weight in the Ebor and in our opinion has a good e.w. chance. However the main danger is the mare Pale Mimosa (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) from a stable with an excellent record in this race. She was beaten by Leading Light earlier in the year, but has improved since, has clearly been aimed at this race and the form of her York defeat of Estimate reads well enough.

The other two Group Ones are for 2yo´s, for fillies over 7 furlongs at 16.40 and for colts over a mile at 17.15. The O´Brien´s should certainly take the latter race with Gleneagles, clrearly one of ther stable´s top juveniles, with British challenger Dutch Art (Charlie Hills/ George Baker) probably next best. O´Brien has 4 runners in the fillies race, with Joseph partnering Found, an impressive winner at 14-1 on her debut 3 weeks ago. She could be anything, but on form one has to prefer Newmarket raider Cursory Glance (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), runner-up in the Lowther Stakes, who can complete a great weekend for trainer and jockey.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Discussiontofollow - Out Do - Watchable
2. Race: Tarfasha - Chicquita - Mango Diva
3. Race: Stepper Point - Extortionist - Fountain Of Youth
4. Race: Cursory Glance - Found - Lucida
5. Race: Dutch Connection - Hall Of Fame - Toscanini
6. Race: Encke - Pale Mimosa - Pallasator
7. Race: Realtra - Explosive Lady - Diaz
8. Race: Artful Artist - Adjusted - Panama Hat