Friday, May 31, 2013

Rest of Epsom

The card also includes two Group Threes, a listed race and three good handicaps. Frankie Dettori, having finally received jhis license back, returns to action today and rides in the first two races - Beatrice Aurore (Ed Dunlop) in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies at 14.35 CET ,and Fattotsa for Marco Botti at 15.10. He is our favourite jockey and has been riding work regularly, but nothing equals actually riding in races and he may not be fully fit today. In any case we prefer Thistle Bird (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) in the former race and course specialist Resurge (Wilf Kittow/ Neil Callan) in the latter.

The Diomed Stakes over the extended mile at 15.45 looks tricky, even with only 7 runners. We shall take gabrial (Richard Fahey/ Jamie Spencer), now fitted with a visor, and Gregorian (John Gosden/ William Buick) against the field. Fahey has no runners in the two classics, but sends a strong team down from Yorkshire and has 2 runners in the mile handicap at 16.20: he claims that Hi There (Paul Hanagan) is his main hope, but we also expect Brae Hill (Spencer) to run well, while Benzanno (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), another runner with a good course record, should also get involved. Our best bet is Boomshackerlacker (George Baker/ Pat Cosgrave) in the listed race for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 17.45; he was badly hampered when a respectable fifth in the German 2,000 Guineas a fortnight ago, and this distance is probably even better for him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thistle Bird - Beatrice Aurore - Sentaril
2. Race: Resurge - Pilgrims Rest - Area Fifty One
3. Race: Gregorian - Producer - Gabrial
4. Race: Hefner - Hi There - Maverik
5. Race: Secret Gesture - Moth - Liber Nauticus
6. Race: Hasopop - Here Comes When - Well Acquainted
7. Race: Lancelot Du Lac - You Da One - Love Magic

The Oaks at Epsom today

The Derby meeting at Epsom starts today with an excellent card, headed by The Oaks at 17.00 CET. The classic race for fillies - actually older then the Derby itself- is over 1 1/2 miles and has 11 runners today, with Secret Gesture (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) the clear favourite. She was a most impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial and although that is no longer a significant race in itself, that is probably the best form in the race.

Qatar Racing, who also have the German-trained Chopin in tomorrow´s Derby, have bought a half share in the Galileo filly and she is our selection, although we hope to get a better price than the current 9/4. Beckett is one of 3 trainers with two runners, and his other filly Talent (Richard Hughes) also has a good chance of being placed, as she was staying on strongly when winning over 10 furlongs at Newmarket last time. Aidan O´Brien - of course- has two runners, with son Joseph on Moth, third in the 1,000 Guineas and almost certainly better at today´s trip. Seamus Heffernan rides Say, who needs to improve, although also a daughter of Galileo, like Moth and Secret Gesture.

Michhel Bell also has two runners, although his hopes Madame Deafrge (Tom Queally) and The Lark (Jamie Spencer) are both outsiders, However quite a few judges expect The Lark to be a good each-way bet. A more likely Newmarket challenger is Liber Nauticus (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who won the Musidora, usually a good guide; it is rather worrying that Stoute, for two decades the top trainer in the U.K., has not won a Group One race since Workforce´s Arc in 2010. To be hoest, we don´t fancy his filly, as we are not sure that she will act on the track.
There have been plenty of upsets in the history of this race, and we don ´t like tipping favourites, but in this case we think that Secret Gesture is the most reliable candidate and hope that she wins.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thistle Bird - Beatrice Aurore - Sentaril
2. Race: Resurge - Pilgrims Rest - Area Fifty One
3. Race: Gregorian - Producer - Gabrial
4. Race: Hefner - Hi There - Maverik
5. Race: Secret Gesture - Moth - Liber Nauticus
6. Race: Hasopop - Here Comes When - Well Acquainted
7. Race: Lancelot Du Lac - You Da One - Love Magic

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Good card at Sandown this evening

By far the best racing at today´s 6 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland is to be seen this evening at Sandown Park, where we have probably the best evening card of the entire season, featuring two Group races and two listed events. The Henry II Stakes over 2 miles at 20.15 CET is the top race and is an important trial for the Gold Cup; indeed Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) won the Royal Ascot showpiece last year. he is one of 3 Godolphin runners, the others being Cavalryman (Mikael Barzalona), who however would not want any more rain, and Ley Hunter (Kieren Fallon). Coloiur Vision is just about top-rated here, but he has not run since putting up a very poor effort at Ascot in October, before which he was third in the Prix du Cadran, behind runner-up High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ Graham Lee), who finished last season with 4 second places, including to Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) in the Doncaster Cup, when the latter was still trained by Ed´s father John. L ightly-raced 4yo Model Pupil (Charlie Hills/ Richard Hughes) is trying this distance for the first time, but it is hoped that he will also make up into a decent Cup performer.

French raider Gloomy Sunday (Christophe Ferland/ Olivier Peslier), owned by the Boss, is another 4yo but, with all due respect, his form does not look good enough. This is a tricky race and should be watched for Golf Cup clues; Coilour Vision seems the most likely winner, but we would hold our fire. The Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 10 furlongs at 20.50 has only 5 runners, and probably lies between Danadana (Luca Cumani/ Fallon) and Main Sequence (Dabvid Lanigan/ Ted Durcan). The latter started by winning his first 4 races and was then runner-up to Camelot in the Derby, but has failed to shine since. he is still top-rated and receives 3 lbs from Danadana, but we still prefer ther latter, who was a very easy winner in this grade at Chester 3 weeks ago.

There are also small fields in tjhe listed races, for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 19.40, which could go to Steventon Star (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes- the team that has won this race 4 times in the last 6 seasons), and for 3yo´s over a mlle at 21.20, where any of the 5 runners could win. All of them could well make up into Group race performers by the end of the season, and our preference is for the unbeaten Queensberry Rules (William Haggas/ Fallon), and Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore), the only filly in the field. Possibly she can take advantage of her 5 lbs sex allowance, but once again, this is a race to watch for future reference than to bet heavily on today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tight Lipped - Rezwaan - Tafawuk
2. Race: Steventon Star - Rizeena - Eastern Impact
3. Race: Colour Vision - High Jinx - Cavalryman
4. Race: Danadana - Main Sequence - Mukhadram
5. Race: Ebn Arab - Montiridge - Queensberry Rules
6. Race: Spa`S Dancer - Kakatosi - Forgive

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

6 more meetings today

Once again, there is not much quality on view at today´s 6 meetings - 3 on the flat and 3 over jumps. On top of that, there are some small fields and also plenty of non-runners as a result of the change in the weather. There are only 4 runners in the main event at Nottingham, a conditions race over a mile at 16.30 CET. All of them are close to listed standard, and in fact Don´t Call Me (David and Adrian Nicholls) is a group race winner, but we prefer Questioning (John Gosden/ William Buick) and the sole filly Moonstone Magic (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley); the former has not been out since September, so we prefer the filly, who ran a good race when third in an Irish Group Three last time. The handicap for 3yo fillies at 17.05 also looks interesting. Give Way Nelson (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon) and Tosca (Ilka Gansera-Leveque/ Mikael Barzalona) both had decent form in Germany last year. At these weights we prefer Tosca.

There are also only 4 runners in the novice chase at 15.40 at Fontwell, but one of them is not only the highest-rated runner out today but also the best bred - Prospect Wells( Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), a half-brother by Sadler´s Wells to Arc winner Solemia; the winner of the National Spirit Hurdle here in February, he now makes his chasing debut, and if he jumps round safely, can hardly lose, as he has plenty in hand of these rivals on hurdling form. Lucy Alexander was riding on the flat yesterday, but she reverts to hurdling at Cartmel today and has several promising rides; Ferdy Murtagh´s Pete is rather inconsistent, but won on his only start here, and is now nicely handicapped; we think he is an intereresting each-way prospect in the handicap hurdle at 18.00.

The best racing this evening comes from Beverley, where some useful sprinters line up over 5 furlongs at 21.05; we give a narrow vote to Heerat (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan), a close fourth to Sole Power in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last time. The Hilary Needler Trophy for 2yo fillies 20.35 is no longer the strong race it used to be when it was a major trial for Royal Ascot, biut still 10 of the 11 runners this evening are previous winners. It looks quite open, but we hope to see Champagne Babe (Keith Dalgleish/ Graham Gibbons) come out on top.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Iftaar - Legend Rising - Race Hunter
2. Race: Jofranka - Seven Of Clubs - La Sylphe
3. Race: Common Cents - Two Turtle Doves - Falasteen
4. Race: Colourbearer - Divertimenti - Parisian Pyramid
5. Race: Questioning - Moonstone Magic - Don`T Call Me
6. Race: Sharqawiyah - Give Way Nelson - Zero Game
7. Race: Hello Sailor - Gabrial The Duke - Good Evans
8. Race: Tyrur Ted - Bold Duke - Hydrant

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

6 poor meetings today

Very modest fare on offer at today´s 6 meetings - Leicester and Redcar (Flat) as well as Newton Abbot (N.H.) this afternoon, and in the evening Yarmouth and Lingfield, with Irish jumps racing at Ballinrobe- but nothing better than moderate handicaps at any of them. Several recent winners turn out again under a Penalty, notably the well-bred Pythagorean (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) in the 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.00 CET at Leicester; he was a very easy winner over this CD last week and should be able to follow up under 6 lbs extra. The first division of the 3yo handicap over 10 furlongs here at 18.00 could go to top-weight Astrum (Rod Millman/ Graham Lee), who has won twice at Warwick this season, most recently last week, while the second division may go to Clive Brittain´s maiden Tahaf (Neil Callan), third at Redcar on his seasonal debut.

At Redcar itself, the speedy Angelito (Ed McMahon/ Franny Norton) can win the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.10; he won twice over this trip at Bath last season and the predicted form going will be ideal. There are no fewer than 4 last-time-out winners in the handicap hurdle at 17.20 at Newton Abbot; they are all respected, but we shall take another chance on German-bred Engai (David Bridgewater/ Jake Hodson) in the hope that he will be suited by the fast ground. Champion trainer Nicky Henderson, who sends out very few runners at this time of year, saddles two here, Looking Hopeful (David Bass) in the maiden hurdle at 15.20, and Anquetta (Sam Waley-Cohen) in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.50, and both of them could win.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Generalyse - Swendab - Griffin Point
2. Race: Plunder - Studfarmer - Avatar Star
3. Race: Pythagorean - Pivotal Movement - Testamatta
4. Race: Burnham - Ashdown Lad - Cape Alex
5. Race: Gold Top - Kaiulani - Excel`s Beauty
6. Race: Toofi - Toormore - Al Baz
7. Race: Astrum - Our Golden Girl - Kastini
8. Race: Tahaf - Super Cookie - Gold Roll

Monday, May 27, 2013

Bank Holiday Monday

Today is a holiday in the U.K., which means quite a lot of racing in the afternoon - none in the evening - and all at a fairly low level. Most races are handicaps and the best one is the Zetland Gold Cup, a 10 furlongs handicap at 17.00 CET at Redcar. This is obviously very open, but we shall take two runners from top stables against the field: Eshitibaak (John Gosden/ Dane O´Neill) and Tamaamah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa); both are relatively lightly-raced and look less exposed than their rivals.

At Carlisle, trainer Brian Ellison -. in very good form at the moment - and apprentice Paul Pickard could possibly land a double with Pacific Heights over a mile at 17.20 and Mubrook over 11 furlongs at 17.55. The latter has some decent form over hurdles and looks well handicapped for his return to the flat, while the former is still a maiden but looks due for a win after finishing in the money on his last 6 starts.´

At Leicester we like Alice Rose (Rae Guest/ Nicky Mackay) in the fillies handicap at 17.05. The daughter of Manduro showed much improved form when winning on her seasonal debut at Yarmouth and can progress further. Our selection at Windsor is King of Jazz (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) who has top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.55; he seemed not to stay 7 furlongs last time and is dropping in grade here.

There is jumps racing at Cartmel with two interesting handicap chases, over 2 3/4 miles at 16.05 and for veterans over 3 3/4 miles at 16.40. In both cases we have chosen chasers who have come down in the weights but should be well suited by the likely good to firm going: Fine Parchment (Charlie Mann/ Harry Bannister) in the former and King Fontaine (Malcolm Jefferson/ Denis O´Regan) in the latter.

Redcar - betting forecast:
1. Race: Ixelles Diamond - Danfazi - Will To Survive
2. Race: Danehill Flyer - Handiwork - Moaning Butcher
3. Race: Maputo - Legal Waves - Marhaba Malayeen
4. Race: Eshtibaak - Silver Lime - Tahaamah
5. Race: Dream Cast - Nordikhab - Shady Mccoy
6. Race: Dr Irv - Brasingaman Eric - Madrasa
7. Race: Looks Like Rain - Green To Gold - Medieval Bishop

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh

there are three low-level N.H. meetings in the U.K. today, but to be honest, we would rather leave these alone and concentrate on Ireland, where the 1,000 Guineas is due to be run at 16.55 CET at the Curragh. With 16 runners, this looks a very open race, and much more difficult than yesterdays 2000, in which - as we expected and predicted here- Aidan O´Brien´s Magician outclassed his opponents. Obviously O´Brien is the place to start again, as he has won the 1,000 repeatedly as well and now saddles three fillies, Hanky Panky (Ryan Moore), Just Pretending (Seamus Heffernan) and Snow Queen, presumably the stable´s number one with the trainer´s son Joseph aboard. However there seems to obvious reason why she should now defeat Just The Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer), a close second at Newmarket in the English Guineas, with Snow Queen fifth, and Maureen (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) in sixth and Masarah (Clive Brittain/ Freddie Tylicki) in eighth not far behind. Classic form is usually the most reliable, so we expect Just the Judge to come out on top again.
However there is plenty more opposition in the race. Big Break (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), a sister to the great Famous Name, is highly rated by her shrewd trainer; however she has not run for almost ten months and possibly needs more rain to fall. John Oxx also has two smart fillies engaged, the Aga Khan´s Harasiya (Declan McDonough), another seasonal debutante, and What Style (Niall McCullough), while Viztoria (Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh) has won 3 of her 4 starts and easily defeated Snow Queen last year, but has never run on ground as fast as it will be today. We shall stick with Just the Judge, but only if the price is right - 3/1 or better.
The main supporting feature is the Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup for older horses over 1 1/4 miles at 16.20. Only four runners here, but two of them are genuine stars - Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle), who both look destined for major honours this season. Camelot started out by winning his first 5 races, including the 2,000 Guuineas, Derby and Irish Derby, before his controversial defeat in the St. Leger and below par performance in the Arc, following which he had to have an operation after suffering a severe colic. He made a successful comeback when easily accounting for some inferior opponents over this CD at the beginning of the month. He is clearly one of the best older horses in training anywhere, but does not have much in hand over Al Kazeem, who has also has his problems. He only ran once last year, winning a Newmarket Group Two, and on his comeback this season made an excellent Impression when winning at Sandown. Despite the tiny field, this should be a real race and possibly very tactical, although Windsor Palace (O´Brien/ Heffernan) is presumably in the field as a pacemaker for Camelot. That one will almost certainly start at long odds-on, so a small wager on Al Kazeem - again at 3-1 or better- may be the best bet.
The third group race on the card is the Gallinule Stakes for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 15.45, and once again Aidan O´Brien has two fancied candidates in Count of Limonade (Moore) and Leading Light (Joseph). The strongest opposition should come from Peter Deegan´s unbeaten Sruthan (Chris Hayes), but this time we definitely expect a victory for the Ballydoyle stable.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sir John Hawkins - Intensified - Mustajeeb
2. Race: Clara Bel La - Fairview Star - Aladdins Cave
3. Race: Leading Light - Sruthan - Little White Cloud
4. Race: Al Kazeem - Windsor Palace - Negotiate
5. Race: Just The Judge - Maureen - Big Break
6. Race: Rummaging - Six Of Hearts - Harry Trotter
7. Race: Al Hibaab - Forgehill Cosaque - Vazs Mane Son
8. Race: Manalapan - Lake Nova - Magical Steps

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Temple Stakes at Haydock

the Group Two Temple Stakes, to be run at 16.50 CET at Haydock, is one of the best 5 furlongs races of the season and an ideal stepping stone to the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot next month. The ground has come right for Irish challenger Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Fran Berry), who won this race in 2011 and was just touched off last year. He has been a most consistent performer over this trip for the past 3 seasons and the only slight worry is that he has a new jockey today. Johnny Murtagh, on duty today at the Curragh, is his normal partner and knows how to deliver him at the last possible moment. However if everything falls right, we expect him to win. he holds Kingsgate Native (Robert Cowell/ Shane Kelly), who was runner-up to him here in 2011 and also recently at Newmarket, in a race in which Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) finished third and Spirit Quartz (Cowell/ George Baker) fifth. The obvious threat is Reckless Abandon (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby), a top 2yo last seaso n when he was unbeaten in 5 starts, including the Morny and Middle Park. He is obviously a candidate for top sprinting honours this season, but at this stage we prefer the older horses and make Sole Power a confident selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Albaqaa - Restaurateur - Cono Zur
2. Race: Feel Like Dancing - Red Runaway - Van Percy
3. Race: Newstead Abbey - Hay Dude - Code Of Honor
4. Race: Reckless Abandon - Sole Power - Swiss Spirit
5. Race: Saloomy - Polar Venture - Whozthecat
6. Race: Pea Shooter - Waking Warrior - Tango Sky
7. Race: Sandy Lane - Redvers - Zacynthus
8. Race: Enobled - Capo Rosso - Lazarus Bell

Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh

the Irish 2000 Guineas to be run at 16.20 CET this afternoon is the first Irish classic of the season and, like all the others, run at the Curragh. Aidan O´Brien has won it 8 times - no other Irish trainer has been succssful in recent years- and now saddles 4 of the 1o runners, with Magician, partnered by his son Joseph, the lilkely favourite. He won the Dee Stakes in excellent style at Chester last time and it is a bit surprising to see him run here over a significantly shorter distance. However he looked really smart that day and as he is expected to relish the fast ground, we think that Joseph has made the right choice. Of his stable companions Gale Force Ten (Seamus Heffernan) was a close 4th in the French Guineas, while George Vancouver (Pat Smullen) looked very promising last year. However the biggest threat will probably come from Jim Bolger´s Trading Leather (Kevin Manning), who is also back down in trip after running second in the Dante. Johnny Murtagh now has his li cense as a trainer and rides his own Fort Knox, bought by Sheikh Mohammed after his easy win at Leopardstown last time, but he has a bit to prove in this company. The only British runners are both trained by Richard Hannon - Van Der Neer (Richard Hughes), who stayed on into third in the English equivalent race, and Havana Gold (Jamie Spencer), just behind Gale Force Ten in the French version. However we expect a home win and go for Magician.
We certainly expect a British win in the Group Three Greenlands Stakes over 6 furlongs at 15.45. Tiddliwinks (Kevin Ryan/ Smullen) won this last year from Jimmy Styles (Clive Cox/ Hughes) with Hitchens (David Barron/ Murtagh) fourth, and they could well dominate again, as the ground is wrong for the main Irish hope, the top-rated Maarek (David Nagle/ Spencer).
The other Group race, the Abu Dhabi Stakes for fillies over a mile, looks tricky. The O´Brien´ s have another good chance here with Was, who after all won the Oaks last year. But that was possibly a fluke and today´s distance hardly seems ideal. We prefer Caponata (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), although she was not impressive when winning at Gowran Park last time. Sir Henry Cecil never sends his horses abroad without good reason, and we therefore expect Chigun (Tom Queally) to come out on top, even though she needs in theory to improve on her rating to score in this company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bye Bye Birdie - Flying Jib - Perhaps
2. Race: Coach House - Stubbs - Club Wexford
3. Race: Maarek - Slade Power - Antious
4. Race: Magician - Van Der Neer - Fort Knox
5. Race: Caponata - Chigun - Was
6. Race: Miracle Cure - Regulation - Fiesolana
7. Race: Sacred Dragon - Machete Mark - Mouteab
8. Race: Eastern Rules - Brown Butterfly - Stronger Than Me

Friday, May 24, 2013

match at Goodwood

seven meetings today, five of them on the flat (and Mark Johnston has runners at all of them!) and two this evening over jumps, but mainly at a low level. The two best horses running today are almost certainly Contributer (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) and Disclaimer (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) who meet in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes for 3yo´s over 11 furlongs at 16.45 CET. Unfortunately this race has cut up to such an extent that they are the only two runners. Both are well-bred promising types who could well be winning Group races later in the season but there is not much between them and clearly no point in having a bet.
The other Goodwood events do offer some betting opportunities, and we are interested in some 3yo´s running against older horses:.Centred (Sir Michael Stoute/ Franny Norton) and Divergence (Michael Bell/ Darren Egan) for instance, who are the bottom weights in the 1 1/2 mile race at 16.10. In receipt of lumps of weight, they could well finish well clear of their older opponents, the best of which is probably the lightly-raced Hepworth (John Gosden/ Ryan Moore); his jockey is not riding for his own yard as he could not do the weight on Centred. Later on, Wentworth (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is the only 3yo in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.20. The Coolmore-owned colt won his last 2 races as a juvenile, but this seems rather an unusual race for him to start off his 3yo campaign; that said, he is quite possibly the proverbial group horse running in a handicap; the two he has to beat are the top-weight Prodigality (Ron Harris/ Thomas Brown) and the 10yo CD specialist Johannes (Richard Fahey/ Lucy Barry).
The 7 furlongs handicap at 15.35 is the trickiest race of the day and bookies are currently going 7-1 the field. Ryan Moore rides Goodwood extremely well and he is always dangerous when partnering a horse trained by his father Gary - in this case Shamahan, so he must go on the short list. So must the lightly-raced Flexible Flyer (Hughie Morrison/ Richard Hughes), and, if the forecast rain arrives, Accession (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby), while course experience is always a big advantage here, in which case the CD winners Brave Echo (Mike Attwater/ Seb Sanders) and last year´s winner Shifting Star (JJ Bridger/ Joey Haynes) also come into the reckoning.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ligeia - Talksalot - Chance Of Romance
2. Race: Polar Kite - Royal Reyah - Harrison George
3. Race: Centred - Hepworth - Princess Caetani
4. Race: Contributer - Disclaimer - Contributer
5. Race: Wentworth - Prodigality - Annunciation
6. Race: Auction - Callmeakhab - Everleigh
7. Race: Shirley`s Pride - Buy Art - Royal Guinevere

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Oaks trial at Goodwood

The listed Height of Fashion Stakes for 3yo fillies over 10furlongs at 16.45 CET at Goodwood today is regarded as a late trial for the Oaks, and indeed 2010 winner Snow Fairy went on to score at Epsom. However today´s field looks sub-standard and none of the 11 runners is even entered in the Oaks. Elik (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), a daughter of the German mare Elopa, is the likely favourite; she is still a maiden but ran a good race when a close fourth in the Cheshire Oaks after not getting a clear run, and that form may be good enough. The Irish filly Harmonic Note (Ger Lyons/ Jamie Spencer) is actually top-rated here, but her only win from 10 starts came in a Dundalk handicap; however she has not been disgraced in better races his year. Others to be considered are Heading North (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), Trapeze (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Mick Channon´s pair, but we shall stick with Elik.

The 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 looks very tricky, but we like The Confessor (Henry Candy/ Cathy Gannon), who can turn the tables on George Guru (Mike Attwater/ Jamie Spencer), who beat him over this CD last time; Noble Citizen (David Simcock/ Martin Lane) ran badly on his seasonal debut but ran second in this race last year and should also be thereabouts. It could be a good afternoon for Gannon, as we also like her prospects on Andrew Balding´s lightly-weighted filly Silver Samba in the 2 mile handicap at 17.20. Cosimo de Medici (Hughie Morrison/ Robert Havlin), who won this in 2011, is an obvious danger, while Montaff (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley), out of form all recent starts, would be a huge threat if anywhere near back to his best.

There is also quite a decent card this afternoon at Haydock, where Basseterre (Charlie Hills/ Kieren Fallon) could take the mile handicap at 17.05, and also this evening, with several of the jockeys at Goodwood in the afternoon will be at Sandown, and others travelling west to ride at Salisbury. There is jumps racing this afternoon at Wetherby and a mixed meeting (four flat races followed by three over hurdles) this evening at Clonmel/ Ireland.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kiyoshi - Mildenhall - Ihtimal
2. Race: Zamoyski - King Of The Danes - Lamusawama
3. Race: George Guru - Chandlery - The Confessor
4. Race: Elik - Heading North - Harmonic Note
5. Race: Silver Samba - Cosimo De Medici - Bow To No One
6. Race: Emiratesdotcom - New Decade - Commandingpresence

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

6 poor meetings today

once again. very low level racing all round today, when we have 3 meetings on the flat and three over jumps.
At Lingfield, the first 4 races are on turf and the last 4 on the all-weather polytrack. The most interesting race is the maiden at 15.30 CET in which Sir Henry Cecil saddles two runners, with clear preference for the very well-bred Emperical (Tom Queally).There arre two German-breds in the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 16.30, both winning hurdlers - top-weight Kayef (Michael Scudamore/ Willie Twiston-Davies) and bottom-weight Aviso (David Evans/ Andrea Atzeni) - one time winner of the German 2,000 Guineas; but is far below that form these days and also running in our opinion over the wrong distance. Kayef however should have a decent each-way chance in this company.
There is also all-weather racing this afternoon at Southwell, with the remarkable 10yo gelding La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Dane O´Neill) running in the claimer over 1 1/2 miles at 16.50. He has won his last 13 starts at this track, most of them over this distance,and we expect hm to win again, although Noguchi (Mike Morphy/ Neil Callan), who is in good form and won his only start here, could prove troublesome.
Flat racing this evening is also on the all-weather - at Kempton, where the best race is the 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 21.00. Most of the runners are relatively lightly-raced and unexposed and we think that top-weight Portmonarch (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan), who is still a maiden but has shown some ability, could come out on top.
Over jumps, Sea Lord (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) should win the novice hurdle at 16.40 at Huntingdon, although Flashy Star (Sheena West/ Marc Goldstein) is a possible danger in receipt of 18 lbs; debutant Checkpoint (Gary and Jamie Moore), a half-brother to the above-.mentioned Emperical, is another danger, but Sea Lord won easily enough last time and was group class on the flat. Double Handful (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass), who we remember making the running in the 2009 German Derby, makes his chasing debut at 15.40, as does the Moores´ Kambis; on hurdling ratings they should not beat Robbie (Keith and James Reveley) bjut we are still hopeful. Another ex-German is Sommersturm (David Evans/ Aidan Coleman) in the handicap hurdle at 21.50 at Worcester; he has not run over hurdles for 1 1/2 years but is very nicely handicapped and has been in good form on the flat, winning 3 times on the all-weather this year. He should go close this evening.
There is an all-hurdles card at Sligo in Ireland, where the main event is at 20.40 with two runners trained by Willie Mullins. Ruby Walsh rides On His Own (who fell in the Grand National when strongly fancied). Coincidence backers can double him up with On My Own (John Hills/ Seb Sanders) in the 18.30 at Lingfield.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Minority Interest - Uncle Roger - Mr Lando
2. Race: Da Do Run Run - Ataraxis - Loafer
3. Race: Highly Likely - Foxhaven - Hurakan
4. Race: Honest Strike - Ginger Fizz - Kayef
5. Race: Rakaan - Saharia - Elusive Hawk
6. Race: At A Clip - Bright Glow - Winter Song
7. Race: Kinglami - Poetic Lord - Dimitar
8. Race: Prince Of Burma - Cyflymder - Bajan Story

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

5 poor meetings today

very poor sport on offer today with no race at any of the 5 meetings (including one over jumps) better than class 4. Brighton finally opens its gates for 2013, after its first 3 fixtures had to be transferred owing to the poor growth of grass after the long winter. Best bet here could be Chilli Green (Julia Feilden/ Liam Keniry), who has top weight in the fillies handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.40 CET; she has been running without success in much better races and back at this level should be hard to beat.
Another filly we hope can outclass the opposition is Pompeia (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) at 16.50 at Nottingham; she is closely related to the star German filly Catella. Beckett and Crowley also have prospects with Secret Art in the second division of the 3yo maiden an hour later; he has the best public form - placed on all four starts- but there are several well-bred newcomers and dark horses in both divisions of this race, which are probably more interesting to watch than to bet on.
At Newcastle, Graham Lee can land a double on David Simcock´s lightly-raced Mean It, who has top weight in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.30, and Will Storey´s Jan Smuts, who can complete a quick hat-trick over this trip of two miles half an hour later.
It´s "singles night" at Pontefract, but those looking for profit rather than romance should concentrate on the 11/2 mile handicap at 19.50. Arizona John (J Mackie/ Franny Norton) is very consistent, having been placed 9 times in the 11 starts since his last win, but his rating never goes down as a result, so we shall go for Kandari (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richard Hughes), quite a useful hurdler who has not run on the flat since winning a handicap in Chantilly 5 years ago. His weight here looks very lenient and he can score for leading N.H. owner JP McManus.
;Mackie also has a chance in the handicap hurdle at 20.35 at Towcester with Aegean Destiny (Donal Devereux) but the clear form choice here is CD specialist Prince Pippin (Lucy Jones/ Tony McCoy).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Red Tulip - Handsome Stranger - Our Three Graces
2. Race: Extrasolar - Daylight - Katie Galore
3. Race: Above The Stars - Rulesn`regulations - Commandingpresence
4. Race: Chilli Green - Authoritarian - Red Larkspur
5. Race: Highland Duke - Silver Alliance - Nave
6. Race: Peace In Our Time - Redoute Star - Whinging Willie
7. Race: Byrd In Hand - Hill Of Dreams - Bloodsweatandtears

Monday, May 20, 2013

6 meetings today

6 meetings today, but as is usual on a Monday (it is not a holiday in the U.K.), all at a very low level. It was expected that Frankie Dettori would make his comeback this evening at Leicester after a six months suspension for testing positive to cocain, but the French authorities have apparently demanded a further medical examination. Ryan Moore may be the one to profit from his absence and can land a double here with Sir Michael Stoute´s Evangelist at 19.20 CET and Jeremy Nioseda´s Ian´s Dream at 21,20. We shall also be interested to see how Dandy (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) runs in the 10 furlongs handicap here at 20.50; he has shown little so far but is from an excellent German family and runs here off bottom weight.
Another German-bred who could be worth a second look is Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Conor Ring) in the handicap hurdle at 16.20 at Newton Abbot. This half-brother to Group One winner Lady Marian is not the most consistent, but certainly capable of running well in this company.
The best race this afternoon is probably the 5 furlongs sprint at 17.10 at Redcar, which looks very tricky. Bedloe´s Island (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) won this last year, and although he is now higher in the weights, he has been in good form and can perhaps score again.
The regular Monday evening at Windsor has a poor card. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are usually the team to follow here and should certainly win the 2yo race at 20.10 with the potentially smart Thunder Strike, who has only two opponents to beat.

Tipps für die Rennen:
1. Rennen: Khobaraa - Pythagorean - Evangelist
2. Rennen: Pravda Street - Classic Colori - Prime Exhibit
3. Rennen: Capitulate - Andhesontherun - Tamayuz Dream
4. Rennen: Villoresi - Saint Thomas - Kelpie Blitz
5. Rennen: Apricot Sky - Speronella - Bill Of Rights
6. Rennen: Plutocracy - White Month - Town Mouse

Sunday, May 19, 2013

busy Sunday

there is racing all over the place today, but the 3 meetings in the U.K., two of them over jumps, do not inspire much confidence, while the best race in Ireland is the listed Vintage Crop Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at Navan at 17.15 CET. Aidan O´Brien has won this repeatedly with his top stayers and now saddles the very promising El Salvador (Joseph O´Brien), who has won all his 3 starts this season and can stay on the winning trail today. he is up in trip but judging by the way the son of Galileo won last time, this should present no problem. Dermot Weld would obviously like to win this, as he trained Vintage Crop, the first non-Australian horse to win the Melbourne Cup, but his filly Voleuse de Coeurs (Pat Smullen) was well held by El Salvador last time, and even on better terms is not expected to reverse the form. She can certainly stay, having won the Irish Cesarewitch last season by 10 lengths from Missunited (Michael Winters/ Seamus Heffernan), who is now 7 lbs better off. El Salvadort, still very lightly-raced, could well be a candidate for top staying honours by the end of the season and should therefore win this without too much fuss.
The only flat racing in Britain is at Ripon, where the best race is the mile handicap at 16.40. Any of the 8 runners could win this, but 8yo Dubai Dynamo (Ruth Carr/ James Sullivan) won it last year and could go close again, while 9yo Osteopathic remedy (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley), while inconsistent, runs his best races here. The fillies handicap over 6 furlongs half an hour earlier is also very open, but the two 3yo´s in the field look dangerous, Body and Soul (Tim Easterby/ Duran Fentiman) and Hoodna (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona), as the older runners mainly look exposed. With the Godolphin horses now coming into form, Hoodna is preferred.
Over jumps, we think that German-bred Passato (Jo Davis/ Richie McLernon) could have an each-way chance in the handicap chase at 16.20 at Stratford. The Lando gelding has won 4 times at this track over shorter distances, but also stays today´s trip of 2 1/2 miles. Much more Stamina is required over hurdles half an hour later; Ukrainian Star (Martin Keighley/ Ian Popham) is one of the few guaranteed to stay the trip and is another each-way selection.
Another German-bred we like is Iolith (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) in the handicap hurdle at 16.30 at Market Rasen. The Monsun gelding was off the track for almost two years, but if he is anywhere near his best form can win today from lightly-raced top-weight Brassick (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) and Va´Vite ((Tony Middleton/ Joseph Banks), who is unpenalised for winning an easier race at Aintree on Friday.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Keep The Cash - Armedandbeautiful - Milor De La Borie
2. Race: Madeira Girl - Golden Acorn - Lillybrook
3. Race: Woolcombe Folly - Pepite Rose - Buck Mulligan
4. Race: Sail And Return - Knighton Combe - Green Bank
5. Race: Prospect Wells - Nagpur - Di Kaprio
6. Race: The Road Ahead - Prideofthecastle - Algernon Pazham

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

the Group One Lockinge Stakes at 16.50 CET at Newbury is the first big mile race of the season; it has attracted a very strong field, and while last year´s winner Frankel is no longer in training, there are several lines of form connecting to that superstar. Cityscape (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) deliberately avoided Frankel as he is in the same ownership, but he put up some pretty good performances at this distance. On official ratings there is nothing between him and Godolphin´s Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who was twice runner-up to Frankel last year and was in fact runner-up 4 times running in Group One races. He is out of the German Group One winner Gonbarda, by Lando, and will probably appreciate the faster ground better than Cityscape. The Godophin stable form is a worry, but Saeed sent out his first winner of the year in Europe yesterday, so possibly the tide has turned. Declaration of War (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) had been heavily backed for this; he has won his last 3 races in excellent style, but this is his first Group One race and he needs further improvement to figure here. Fencing (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Trumpet Major (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) are others moving up in grade, while ex-French Beauty Parlour (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), the only filly in the field, won the French 1,000 Guineas last year and was also runner-up in the Diane for her previous trainer. German hope Amaron (Andreas Löwe/ Andrasch Starke) won a Group One in Italy last year but this is much, much tougher. He is reported to be in excellent form, and we would love to see him win, but realistically he will do well to finish in the money in this field. If he cannot win, then we at least hope to see a German-bred winner, i.e. Farhh.
The listed race over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.05 is the main supporting race, but looks, even with only 7 runners, very tricky. Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) is a horse we like; he won over hurdles here in January but has not won on the flat for ages and probably needs further. Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) won the John Porter over slightly shorter here last year and is the highest-rated runner, even though he has not won since. We hope that the Godolphin stable really has come into form and go with Willing Foe (bin Suroor/ de Sousa)
The rest of the card consists of very open handicaps and maiden races with some very interesting and well-bred newcomers. Sior Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore had a good time at York this week and can take the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.15 with Hillstar, and they also have good prospects with Modern Tutor over 6 furlongs at 15.40, both very lightly-raced types that look certain to improve.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Retirement Plan - Russian Realm - Gold Medal
2. Race: Gallipot - Harris Tweed - Jehannedarc
3. Race: Khawatim - Seeking Magic - Modern Tutor
4. Race: Hillstar - Tarikhi - Kitten On The Run
5. Race: Declaration Of War - Farhh - Cityscape
6. Race: Royal Challis - Shamal - Plover
7. Race: You`re The Boss - Narmin - Thakana
8. Race: Azenzar - Indignant - Reqaaba

Friday, May 17, 2013

Yorkshire Cup on York´s final day

The Group Two Yorkshire Cup over 1 3/4 miles at 15.45 CET is the main Feature of the third and final day of York´s May meeting and has an international field, with both Irish-trained Royal Diamond (Tommy Carmody/ Niall McCullagh) and French challenger Top Trip (Francois Doumen/ Mickael Barzalona) holding good chances. The former won the Irish St. Leger last year, while the latter ran well in several of France´s top 3yo races. Quiz Mistress (Hughie Morrison(Jimmy Fortune), the only filly in the field, looks the best of the Brits; she showed much improved form last time when just beaten at Newbury in a race that has worked out well and this extra quarter-mile should be ideal. Joshua Tree, now with Ed Dunlop and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, is the best horse in the field but is making his seasonal debut and also has a Group One penalty to carry, as does Royal Diamond. That makes life tough and at these weights we prefer Quiz Mistress, although the French raider could be a big danger.

The main supporting feature is the listed race for 3yo fillies over a mile half an hour later. How´s Life (Rae Guest/ Andrea Atzeni) is unbeaten in two starts and won with the greatest of ease at Beverley last time. This is a much tougher race obviously, but most of the others are also moving up in grade, and she looks listed class at least based on the style of her Beverley success. Pavlosk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) was also an easy winner of her only start this season and looks the obvious danger.

Stoute and Moore also have a chance of taking the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 15.15 with top-weight Sir John Hawkwood, who carries a 6 lbs penalty for winning last week at Chester. However this race looks wide open and we shall take a chance with ex-German Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning). He is Swiss-owned and ran mainly in Switzerland last year but is nicely handicapped on his earlier German form.

Not all the top jockeys are at York and we expect Richard Hughes to be among the winners at Newbury., including in the two listed races at 15.00 with William Haggas´ Valtina and at 16.40 on Richard Hannon´s Ninjago, while Tom Queally could have a good afternoon at Newmarket, where Sir Henry Cecil´s Riposte Looks a good thing to win the 3yo fillies maiden at 17.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Quatuor - Beldale Memory - Majestic Alexander
2. Race: Sir John Hawkwood - Oriental Fox - King`S Warrior
3. Race: Joshua Tree - Sir Graham Wade - Royal Diamond
4. Race: Pavlosk - Orpha - City Image
5. Race: Bispham Green - Dutch Masterpiece - Mayfield Girl
6. Race: Rye House - Awake My Soul - Take Two
7. Race: Allnecessaryforce - Rundell - Mombasa

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Dante Stakes at York today

The Group Two Dante Stakes for 3yo´s over an extended 10 furlongs at 15.45 is the big race at York today and is usually regarded as the most reliable trial for the Epsom Derby. The Irish trainers Jim Bolger and Aidan O´Brien dominate the betting for Epsom and both have runners here - Trading Leather (Kevin Manning) and Indian Chief (Joseph O´Brien) respectively. Bolger has the hot favourite Dawn Approach and today´s runner does not look anywhere near that one in ability,. but the O´Brien runner is a different matter. Indian Chief was a promising runner-up on his only start last year and began this with a very easy win in a Leopardsrown maiden. Obviously he is up hugely in grade here, but as the stable won 4 significant Derby Trials last week, he must be taken very seriously. Another relatively unknown quantity is Godolphin´s Secret Number (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), third last time in the UAE Derby and who looked potentially very smart when winning first time out at Kempton last season. As is well-known, Godolphin have had very few runners recently, and Saeed has so far not saddled a single winner in the U.K. this year. However he seems very confident about Secret Number, who has to go on the short list. More solid recent form is supplied by Windhoek (Mark Johnston), Greatwood (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Ghurair (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan), who were separated only by inches when taking the first 3 places in a valuable sales race at the Newmarket Craven Meeting; Windhoek, who is still unbeaten, has won again since. There should be little between them again, although Greatwood is regarded as having the greater scope for improvement. He is by Manduro and from the German family of Fame and Glory, so a strong performance would be a compliment to German breeding. With so many imponderables, this is not a race to bet on unless you have a very strong opinion; we think that Indian Chief is possibly the safest option in view of the fantas tic form of the O´Brien 3yo´s.

The other Group Two at York today is the Middleton Stakes for fillies and mares over the same trip as the Dante at 15.15. The Aga Khan´ s French-trained Dalkala (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christopher Lemaire) is the likely favourite here., but we are not totally convinced. She raced over various distances last year, but her best performance was to win the Prix de Royallieu on very soft ground over 1 1/2 miles+. The trip is also a concern for Starscope (Gosden/ Buick), runner-up last year in the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes - both over a mile- and Ladys First (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), fancied by the trainer, but whose best form is also over a mile. Then there is Cubanita (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), who when last seen in October won a listed race from Sajjhaa, who went on to become one of the stars of the Dubai Carnival. If that form could be taken literally the she would be a near-certainty here. She could well win, but we prefer Starscope, who is bred to get this di stance. Fahey, whose stable is in good form, also apparently likes his unraced 2yo Parbold (Tony Hamilton) in the 6 furlongs race at 17.25, and we would also not be surprised to see his handicappers Brae Hill (Jamie Spencer) and Justonefortheroad (Hanagan) run well at 16.15, although CD specialist Navajo Chief (Alan Jarvis/ Michael Murphy) looks a big threat here. Another CD specialist is Judge ´n Jury (Ron Harris/ Thomas Brown) who can repeat his 2012 victory in the 5 furlongs handicap that opens the card at 14.45.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cheworee - Jamaican Bolt - Dinkum Diamond
2. Race: Dalkala - Starscope - Cubanita
3. Race: Indian Chief - Windhoek - Greatwood

4. Race: Fort Bastion - Two For Two - Sound Hearts
5. Race: Sound Of Guns - Morawij - Polski Max
6. Race: Humour - Tanseeb - Parbold
7. Race: Hidden Justice - Mashaari - Cape Tribulation

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

York May Meeting starts today

There has been a lot of rain in most parts of the U.K. and the ground is getting softer everywhere. Punters should bear this in mind today and also check for non-runners, of which there are plenty as a result of the changed going. The best racing today is of course at York with the start of the 3 day May Meeting, with the Dante Stakes tomorrow as the main event. Today´s big features are the Group Three Musidora Stakes for 3yo fillies,, an important Oaks Trial at 15.45 CET, and the Group Two Duke of York Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.15.

The latter event has attracted many of the best performers at the distance, including the two Irish-trained challengers Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Ryan Moore), winner of the Prix de la Foret last season and last time out well behind in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai, and Maarek (David Nagle/ Paul Hanagan). Every drop of rain that falls will improve the chances of Maarek, and he is clearly preferred of this duo.The field includes the first four from last year - 40/1 winner Tiddliwinks (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer), and The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/ Neil Callan), Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Kieren Fallon) and Bogart (Kevin and Amy Ryan). Society Rock should come out best of these, but the fillies Mince (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) and Tickled Pink (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) both look very dangerous. Mincer ended 2013 with 4 victories, including a listed race over this CD, but is up in grade here, while Tickled Pink is very lightly raced and showed great improvement to w in at Newmarket last time, and we expect this grey filly to come out on top.

It is a long time since the Oaks winner ran in the Musidora, but the ante-post betting suggests that Liber Nauticus (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) should win today, as she is at just 5/1 for Epsom. She won her only start last season in very promising style. Woodland Aria (John Gosden/ William Buick) is also the winner of her only start, but that was a modest event on the all-weather. However her trainer has won this race for the past two years, so knows what is required. Indigo Lady (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer) is the highest-rated runner, having finished third in a French Group Three, but we will be surprised if she is good enough.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: First Mohican - Clayton - Lahaag
2. Race: Nocturn - York Glory - Louis The Pious
3. Race: Woodland Aria - Indigo Lady - Romantic Settings
4. Race: Mince - Tickled Pink - Society Rock

5. Race: Cockney Sparrow - Cousin Khee - Guising
6. Race: Steventon Star - Peniaphobia - Haikbidiac
7. Race: Mundahesh - Line Of Reason - Khelman

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

6 meetings today

A typical Tuesday with 6 meetings, 3 this afternoon and 3 this evening, but all at a very low level. This afternoon has two N.H. fixtures, and at Sedgefield we like CD specialist Schinken Otto (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.30 CET; the old boy is on a very nice mark after several poor efforts elsewhere but he runs his best races here. The meeting could start with trainer Donald McCain and jockey Jason Maguire winning the first 3 races on Aazif at 15.00, Any Given Day at 15.30 and Valleyofmilan at 16.00, but they will all be hot favourites; Any GIven Day is especially interesting as this useful hurdler is running for the first time over fences.

Several top trainers have runners at Wincanton, but these races look very tricky and there are some small fields as well. Top-weight Plein Pouvoir (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who has been running in better company, might win the staying handicap chase at 16.20.

There are some very speedy types running in the two divisions of the 5 furlongs handicap at Beverley. We like the oldtimers in these sprint races, and think that the first division at 16.10 could be dominated by the 9yo Divertimento (Roy Bowring/ Adam Maclean), an easy winner at Nottingham last week with this young apprentice up, and 8yo Ingelby Star (Ian McInnes/ Lee McNiff), who has not won for a while but usually goes well here. The second division at 18.40 could go to 13yo Indian Trail (David Nicholls/ Shirley Teasdale), who won over this CD in September but has only run once since; he used to be much better than this grade, but is of course not guaranteed to run up to that form now. On current form Chosen One (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald), a mere youngster at 8, who has won his last 3 races and is still on a good ,mark, can be preferred.

The most interesting race this evening is the opening beginners chase at 18.15 at Killarney, in which the smart hurdlers Rebel Fitz (Michael Winters/ Barry Geraghty) and Steps to Freedom (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) make their chasing debuts. The latter is also pretty good on the flat and was only beaten 5 1/2 lengths in the Group Three Sagaro Stakes recently. Of course they have to jump round, and for those who want to play it safe, Darwins Fox (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), already 3 times runner-up over fences, is the obvious alternative.,

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

6 meetings today

plenty of racing today, but the sport on offer in the U.K. is all at a very low level and there are some very small fields as well. Easily the best race is the listed event at 20.05 CET at the Irish evening Meeting at Navan. Magical Dream (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) looks hard to beat here. She has a 3 lbs penalty for winning a Group race last year, but her best form came when 3 lengths 4th to Sunday´s 1000 Guineas winner Sky Lantern in the Group One Moyglare Stakes last year. None of the 6 opponents this evening, the best of whom are probably Alive Alive O (Tommy Stack/ Fran Berry) and Harmonic Note (Ger Lyons/ EJMcNamara), can boast form which is even remotely comparable.
Tracy Waggott has her small stable in terrific form, and we would not be at all surprised to see her 3 runners this evening at Catterick run well- Croftamie at 19.40, Tuibama at 21.40, both ridden by Royston Ffrench, and Solar Spirit at 20.10 with Graham Lee aboard.
This afternoon´s racing is frankly awful, but our eye is drawn to some old friends riunning on the all-weather at Kempton. Dvinsky (Roger Ingram/ Ian Mongan) makes his 228th start - a British record- in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 here. He is not the most consistent these days, but has had a short break and is racing off a very lenient mark. He is making his first start for a new trainer at the age of 12 and we hope he runs well. We also like Lastkingofscotland (Conor Dore/ Hayley Turner) here at 17.40, not so well handicapped but runs his best races over this CD, and German-bred Querido (Paddy Butler/ Michael Murphy) at 18.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Guru Baby - Sally Bruce - Boblini
2. Race: Knight`s Parade - Miss Tiger Lily - Niknad
3. Race: Bold Ring - Littlecote Lady - Flow Chart
4. Race: Victorian Number - Blue Noodles - Custom House
5. Race: Magique - Thwart - Mandy The Nag
6. Race: Red Larkspur - Dream Catcher - Street Power
7. Race: Harrogate Fair - Loucal - Yahilwa
8. Race: High On The Hog - Edgware Road - Querido

Monday, May 06, 2013

Camelot returns to action

May Day is no holiday in Britain and Ireland., instead we have the profane May Bank Holiday today, with lots of racing, but all at a very low level - with one shining exception. The Curragh has a high class card with the return to action of last year´s 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby winner Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) the highlight. He has not run since finishing seventh in last year´s Arc and may need the race today, but only faces 4 opponents in the Group Three Mooresbridge Stakes over ten furlongs at 16.15 CET. He has to concede 5 lbs to all of them, but only one can be regarded as a serious danger, that is Parish Hall (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), winner of the 2011 Dewhurst, who made a successful comeback 17 months after that race when winning over this CD last month. This is not a race to bet on, but definitely one to watch as Camelot is expected to be a major factor in the top European races this season.
The other group race on the card is the Athasi Stakes for fillies and mares over 7 furlongs at 17.50. Here we fancy another horse on the comeback trail, Moonstone Magic (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), who started last season with two easy wins before flopping badly in the1,000 Guineas; she was reportedly later injured and now runs for the first time since. We don´t believe that Beckett would send her on the journey to Ireland unless he felt that she were back to her best. Most of the runners in this event are 3yo´s in receipt of 12 lbs and Viztoria (Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh), who also won her first two of only three career starts, looks the best of them.
The .listed race for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 17.20 is the main supporting race, and Cougars Ridge (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), whose juvenile form reads well, could come out best on his seasonal debut.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bru Mor - The Organ Grinder - Supernatural
2. Race: True Verdict - Wexford Opera - Illustrate
3. Race: Parish Hall - Triumphant - Macbeth
4. Race: Benbecula - Aurifodina - Lonan
5. Race: Cougar Ridge - Uleavemebreathless - Fortify
6. Race: Moonstone Magic - Viztoria - Roseraie
7. Race: Winning Impact - Core Element - Pierre D`or
8. Race: Made In Germany - Concordin - Egyptian Warrior

Sunday, May 05, 2013

Rest of Newmarket

It´s a big day for fillies today at Newmarket, and quite apart from the Guineas, the other two black type races are also reserved for the fairer sex. The Group Three Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.35 CET has a good field headed by Shirocco Star (Hughie Morrison/ Kieren Fallon), runner-up last year in the Oaks and the Irish Oaks and several other top races. She has only ever won once, and we are not convinced that this much shorter distance on fast ground will be in her favour either, so we shall oppose her with Chigun (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Thistle Bird (Roger Charltpn/ Jack Doyle). They were first and second over a mile here last September and neither has raced since; Thistle Bird was beaten a neck then and is now 4 lbs better off, so she is the selection.

The listed race for 3yo fillies at 18.00 is, to be honest, pretty feeble by the standards of this track. Cruck Realta (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) is the highest-rated but does not seem to be destined for stardom, and we prefer the less exposed maifdens Magic of Reality (Cecil/ Queally) and Vanity Rules (John Gosden/ William Buick)..From the value point of view. we go for Poitin (Harry Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan) each way. The handicaps are of course very tricky. Our two against the field are Silver Lime (Charlton/ Doyle) and Fennell Bay (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) over 1 1/2 miles at 15.50 and Hamza (Kevon Ryan/ Neil Callan) and Poole Hsrbour (Richard Hannon/ Sean Levey) over 6 furlongs at 16.10.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stencive - No Heretic - Silver Lime
2. Race: Shirocco Star - Thistle Bird - Chigun
3. Race: Ladyship - Shropshire - Hitchens
4. Race: Hot Snap - What A Name - Just The Judge
5. Race: Anjaal - Nathr - Green Door
6. Race: Magic Of Reality - Lady Nouf - Vanity Rules
7. Race: High Troja - Carry On Sydney - Soviet Rock

One Thousand Guineas at Newmarket

We fancied Dawn Approach yesterday and today we are equally strong on Top Snap (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) to win the 1000 Guineas at 16.50 CET. Favourites have a poor record in the first fillies classic, but we think that Hot Snap, unbeaten in two starts, is capable of great improvement and can give her owner, Trainer and jockey another big race success. She is no Frankel, who won the 2,000 for them two years ago, but does not need to be. The way she won the Nell Gwyn at the last meeting here, despite looking very inexperienced, was convincing, and we certainly expect her to again defeat Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), runner-up then and now 3 lbs better off. The main challenge could come from Ireland in the shape of Aidan O´Brien´s two runners, the supplemented Moth (Joseph O´Brien) and Snow Queen (Ryan Moore - if he gets back from Kentucky in time) and especially Rasmeyaa (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), the form of whose maiden win last October is working out really well. There is also a fanciefd runner from France, What a Name (Mikel Delzangles/ Christophe Lemaire) who has very solid form and was runner-up against the colts in the Lagadere at the Arc meeting last year. The unbeaten Just the Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) and Hannon´s second string Maureen (Olivier Peslier) also come into the picture, but we are hoping for a home win today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stencive - No Heretic - Silver Lime
2. Race: Shirocco Star - Thistle Bird - Chigun
3. Race: Ladyship - Shropshire - Hitchens
4. Race: Hot Snap - What A Name - Just The Judge
5. Race: Anjaal - Nathr - Green Door
6. Race: Magic Of Reality - Lady Nouf - Vanity Rules
7. Race: High Troja - Carry On Sydney - Soviet Rock

Saturday, May 04, 2013

Rest of Newmarket

The main supporting race is the Group Two Jockey Club Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 16.10, but this race has cut up disappointingly and only 4 go to post. Universal (Mark Johnston( Joe Fanning) seems much improved and kept on well to win the John Porter at Newbury last time, but we hope that Frankel´s brother Noble Mission (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) , beaten two heads then, can reverse the form.

By contrast the Group Three Palace House Stakes over 5 furlongs at 15.35 has 18 runners, so luck in running will play a major role. We hope that things fall right for Sole Power Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh), who needs to be held up for a very late run. Qatar Racing has 3 runners here, and although Robert Cowell´s Spirit Quartz arguably has the best recent form, their main jockey Jamie Spencer has chosen David Barron´s Pearl Secret, and this one could be the main danger to our selection.

The listed race for 3yo´s at 18.00 looks very trricky, even with only 6 runners. Windhoek (Johnston/ Fanning) won the big sales race over this CD at the Craven Meeting, and will be a warm favourite, but we are not convinced and go for Maxentius (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Richard Hughes), who has been running in good company and should be suited by this step up in distance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Basseterre - Icebuster - Whispering Warrior
2. Race: Sole Power - Pearl Secret - Spirit Quartz
3. Race: Noble Mission - Dandino - Universal
4. Race: Dawn Approach - Toronado - Cristoforo Colombo

5. Race: Agerzam - Fils Anges - Secretinthepark
6. Race: Windhoek - High Octane - Unsinkable
7. Race: Country Western - Glean - Ayaar

Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket

The classic season starts today with the 2,000 Guineas at 16.50 CET at Newmarket, which promises to be a cracking race with the strong likelihood (in our view) of an Irish winner. The Irish have won this race 7 times already this century, with such stars as Sea the Stars and Camelot and they have another star here in Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), who won all his 6 starts last season including the Dewhurst here. He was easily the top-rated 2yo in Europe last year and the trainer is convinced that he has trained on and made the "normal improvement." What is possibly against him is the fact that he has never raced on ground as fast as this, but last year´s bad weather is not his fault. There are 5 more Irish runners in the field, including Bolger´s Leitir Mor, presumably the pacemaker, and three trained by Aidan O´Brien, who has won this race several times. The trainer´s son Joseph has chosen Christoforo Colombo, who will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time, but his overall form does not seem good enough. Mars (Seamus Heffernan) has always been very highly-rated, but has only ever run once - when winning a small maiden on the all-weather in July; even for O´Brien this is a very unorthodox preparation, so we think that possibly George Vancouver (Colm O´Donoghue) could be the best of the trio.

The British defence is headed by Richatrd Hannon, who saddles Toronado (Richard Hughes) and Van der Neer (William Buick), The latter won in very good style on the all-weather last time, but Toronado, unbeaten in 4 starts, is clearly the main hope. He was a very easy winner of the Craven Stakes here last time and is the subject of glowing training reports, but we don´t think that his overall form measures up to that of Dawn Approach. With Frankel and Black Caviar retired, racing needs a new star and Dawn Approach must just be the one.

The Newmarket race is not the only classic today with an Aidan O´Brien runner, as Lines of Battle, last seen winning the UAE Derby, goes for the Kentucky version at 24 minutes past midnight with Ryan Moore in the saddle. It is difficult to know that the Dubai form is worth, but the Americans are very tough to beat in their own backyard. Orb, whose Jockey Joel Rosario won the Dubai World Cup, could start favourite but we expect Todd Pletcher, who won both Group One races here yesterday, to score: he has 5 runners, with Mike Smith, who rode yesterday´s Oaks winner.,on Palace Smith, Rafael Bejarano on Overanalyze, Calvin Borel on Revolutionary, Edgar Prado on Charming Kitten, and John Velasquez, who only returned yesterday from injury, on our choice, the unbeaten Verrazano. Aidan probably won´t mind too much if this one wins, as he is also owned by the Coolmore syndicate.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Basseterre - Icebuster - Whispering Warrior
2. Race: Sole Power - Pearl Secret - Spirit Quartz
3. Race: Noble Mission - Dandino - Universal
4. Race: Dawn Approach - Toronado - Cristoforo Colombo

5. Race: Agerzam - Fils Anges - Secretinthepark
6. Race: Windhoek - High Octane - Unsinkable
7. Race: Country Western - Glean - Ayaar

Friday, May 03, 2013

7 meetings today

No fewer than 7 meetings today in the U.K. and Ireland, but most races are of abysmally low standard and one certainly wonders why it is not possible to stage some decent racing on a Friday. The ground is firming up everywhere, especially at Chepstow, where there lots of non-runners, so check before placing your bets. The best race here is the 3yo mile handicap at 17.20, with 8 runners (if they all stay in!) so a good event for each-way betting. Naalatt (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) is very consistent and looks certain to be involved; he hung badly last time at Windsor and would otherwise have come close to winning. Strong Conviction (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) is also in good form, but our selection is bottom-weight David´s Secret (Hughie Morrison/ Kieren Fallon); he finished last season with 3 third places, but the stable is in form and he can begin 2013 by winning first time out.

Wec alspo like the blottom weight in Musselburgh´s 3yo handicap over 9 furlongs at 16.30; that is King of the Danes (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who has the unbeaten Lady Artiste (Alan Swinbank/ Nicky Mackay) to beat. Anotjer in-form Trainer is David O´Meara, who has two of the 6 riunners in the 7 furlongs handicap half an hour later. Powerful Presence (DH Bergin) won this race last year, but is rather inconsistent and we definitely prefer Gandalak, ridden by stable jockey Danny Tudhope. He has been running over shorter distances, but the way he won at Newcastle last time suggests that he will no problem with the extra furlong here.

One that catcbes the eye this evening is ex-German Double Handful (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass) in the handicap hurdle at 19.00 at Fontwell; he appeared not to act on the track at Kempton last time, but that was a better race, and he may find this track and the easier competition more to his liking.

Thursday, May 02, 2013

6 meetings today

plenty of racing again but all at a very low level. This afternoon there is flat racing from Lingfield (a.w.) and Redcar and jumps racing from Sedgefield, while this evening we have flat racing at Chepstow, jumping from Taunton and a mixed Meeting (4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles) at the Irish meeting at Tipperary.
The most interesting race of the day is the 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.50 CET at Lingfield, which looks wide open. Mission Approved Sir Miahael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Khobaraa (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) are both well-bred and lightly-raced types from top connections, who may possibly need the race, while Skytrain (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) will certainly be fit enough, having won twice already this year, including this CD, but faces much better opposition now. The two we like best are top-weight Ready (Graham Moss/ Hayley Turner), who is fit and won twice over this CD last year) and especially Sinaadi (Clive Brittain/ Tom Queally), who is still a maiden but has run in some decent races and seems well handicapped.
At Redcar the main event is also a 7 furlongs handicap, buit for older horses at 16.30, and all these runners look very exposed. We shall take a chance on top-weight Mont Ras (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has been off since October but is down in grade here and has always shown a preference for fast ground.
At Sedgefield we like German-bred Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Denis O´Regan) in the long distance handicap chase at 16.10. He is not fantastically well handicapped, but has won over this CD on fast ground, and ran quite well over hurdles at Market Rasen recently.
Another German-bred who can win over fences is Passato (Jo Davis/ Paddy Brennan) at 19.20 at Taunton. This is quite a tricky race, but Passato, a son of Lando, will also like this fast ground; he last ran in the Cheltenham cross-country, but today´s much shorter trip is definitely more up his street.
At Chepstow Dark Lane (David Evans/ RJ Fitzpatrick) looks a good each-way bet in the 5 furlongs handicap at 21.10. He is certainly fit enough, as he runs every week, but he keeps his form well and has also gone well for this young jockey.
There are huge fields at Tipperary of mainly very moderate Performers. Our best bet here is Chief Admiral (Liz Doyle/ Andrew McNamara) in the 3 mile maiden hurdle at 21.30.

Betting forecast Tipperary:
1. Race: Heart Focus - Treadstone - Rock Focus
2. Race: English Deer - Red Queen - Johnny Lynch
3. Race: Theyturnedmedown - Allegra Tak - Queen Grace
4. Race: September Lily - Malicious Intent - Sassaway
5. Race: Treacy Hotels Boy - Danequest - Gowithdflo
6. Race: Alexander Leaving - Clancy Strand - De Benno
7. Race: Chief Admiral - Davy From Milan - Troll D`oudairies

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Ascot today

May Day is not a holiday in the U.K. - instead we have the May Bank Holiday on Monday- but there is still good racing today, notably at Ascot, which stages its first flat meeting of the year. The main feature is the Group Three Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles at 16.35 CET, where the field includes German-trained Tres Rock Danon (Gerald Geisler/ Freddie Tylicki), one of the best German stayers of recent years.

This is his first start for Geisler as he was previously with Waldemar Hickst. This is his first run since running second to Joshua Tree (a Group One winner afterwards) at Deauville in August, and he is probably best watched today, though undoubtedly good enough if in top form. Another one to watch is the Queen´s lightly-raced Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), a daughter of Monsun who won the Queens Vase over this CD at the Royal Meeting, but is also coming off a break. Drying ground would help the chances of Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker), who is out of a German mare by Acatenango, and won this in 2011. Earth Amber (Nicky Henderson/ Jamie Spencer) ran well on her first British start to finish second at Nottingham, with Handazan (Alan King/ Tom Queally) third and Sir Graham Wade (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon) a disappointing fifth. Steps to Freedom (Jessica Harrington/ Richard Hughes), a good hurdler, is a challenger from Ireland but his form does not con vince us. This is a very tricky race with question marks over all the runners, but if forced to have a bet, we would go for Askar Tau each-way.

Harrington also has a runner in the listed race for 3yo´s over 6 furlongs at 17.10 - Liberating, ridden by Luke Morris, who has twice run respectably in Ireland this spring but probably needs to improve to figure here..Zanetto (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) won a valuable sales race last time at Newmarket, with Graphic Guest (Mick Channon/ Franny Norton) a close third after not getting a clear run, and both could get involved, but the interesting one is the very well-bred but very lightly-raced Snow King (John Gosden/ William Buick). Gosden´s runners often need their first race, so we shall choose Ninjago (Richarrd Hannon/ Richard Hughes), whose team is currently firing on all fronts.

The other listed race is for older horses over a straight mile at 16.00. The question here is whether Pastoral Player (Hughie Morrison/ George Baker) really gets the trip. He gets seven furlongs really well and has also run well here over the round mile, so we shall give him the benefit of the doubt. If he fails, the alternative is Stipulate (Sir Henry Cecil/ Queally), who was runner-up to Schlenderhan´s Energizer over ten furlongs at the Royal Meeting and has already rin a good race this season, over 9 furlongs at Newmarket.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Justice Day - Anticipated - Montaigne
2. Race: Cruck Realta - Chat - Typhoon Lily
3. Race: Stipulate - Pastoral Player - Fencing
4. Race: Estimate - Steps To Freedom - Askar Tau
5. Race: Snow King - Ahern - Sandreamer
6. Race: Rockalong - Twenty One Choice - Toga Tiger