Sunday, May 05, 2013

Rest of Newmarket

It´s a big day for fillies today at Newmarket, and quite apart from the Guineas, the other two black type races are also reserved for the fairer sex. The Group Three Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.35 CET has a good field headed by Shirocco Star (Hughie Morrison/ Kieren Fallon), runner-up last year in the Oaks and the Irish Oaks and several other top races. She has only ever won once, and we are not convinced that this much shorter distance on fast ground will be in her favour either, so we shall oppose her with Chigun (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Thistle Bird (Roger Charltpn/ Jack Doyle). They were first and second over a mile here last September and neither has raced since; Thistle Bird was beaten a neck then and is now 4 lbs better off, so she is the selection.

The listed race for 3yo fillies at 18.00 is, to be honest, pretty feeble by the standards of this track. Cruck Realta (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley) is the highest-rated but does not seem to be destined for stardom, and we prefer the less exposed maifdens Magic of Reality (Cecil/ Queally) and Vanity Rules (John Gosden/ William Buick)..From the value point of view. we go for Poitin (Harry Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan) each way. The handicaps are of course very tricky. Our two against the field are Silver Lime (Charlton/ Doyle) and Fennell Bay (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) over 1 1/2 miles at 15.50 and Hamza (Kevon Ryan/ Neil Callan) and Poole Hsrbour (Richard Hannon/ Sean Levey) over 6 furlongs at 16.10.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stencive - No Heretic - Silver Lime
2. Race: Shirocco Star - Thistle Bird - Chigun
3. Race: Ladyship - Shropshire - Hitchens
4. Race: Hot Snap - What A Name - Just The Judge
5. Race: Anjaal - Nathr - Green Door
6. Race: Magic Of Reality - Lady Nouf - Vanity Rules
7. Race: High Troja - Carry On Sydney - Soviet Rock