Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

the Group One Lockinge Stakes at 16.50 CET at Newbury is the first big mile race of the season; it has attracted a very strong field, and while last year´s winner Frankel is no longer in training, there are several lines of form connecting to that superstar. Cityscape (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) deliberately avoided Frankel as he is in the same ownership, but he put up some pretty good performances at this distance. On official ratings there is nothing between him and Godolphin´s Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who was twice runner-up to Frankel last year and was in fact runner-up 4 times running in Group One races. He is out of the German Group One winner Gonbarda, by Lando, and will probably appreciate the faster ground better than Cityscape. The Godophin stable form is a worry, but Saeed sent out his first winner of the year in Europe yesterday, so possibly the tide has turned. Declaration of War (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) had been heavily backed for this; he has won his last 3 races in excellent style, but this is his first Group One race and he needs further improvement to figure here. Fencing (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Trumpet Major (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) are others moving up in grade, while ex-French Beauty Parlour (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), the only filly in the field, won the French 1,000 Guineas last year and was also runner-up in the Diane for her previous trainer. German hope Amaron (Andreas Löwe/ Andrasch Starke) won a Group One in Italy last year but this is much, much tougher. He is reported to be in excellent form, and we would love to see him win, but realistically he will do well to finish in the money in this field. If he cannot win, then we at least hope to see a German-bred winner, i.e. Farhh.
The listed race over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.05 is the main supporting race, but looks, even with only 7 runners, very tricky. Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry) is a horse we like; he won over hurdles here in January but has not won on the flat for ages and probably needs further. Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) won the John Porter over slightly shorter here last year and is the highest-rated runner, even though he has not won since. We hope that the Godolphin stable really has come into form and go with Willing Foe (bin Suroor/ de Sousa)
The rest of the card consists of very open handicaps and maiden races with some very interesting and well-bred newcomers. Sior Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore had a good time at York this week and can take the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.15 with Hillstar, and they also have good prospects with Modern Tutor over 6 furlongs at 15.40, both very lightly-raced types that look certain to improve.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Retirement Plan - Russian Realm - Gold Medal
2. Race: Gallipot - Harris Tweed - Jehannedarc
3. Race: Khawatim - Seeking Magic - Modern Tutor
4. Race: Hillstar - Tarikhi - Kitten On The Run
5. Race: Declaration Of War - Farhh - Cityscape
6. Race: Royal Challis - Shamal - Plover
7. Race: You`re The Boss - Narmin - Thakana
8. Race: Azenzar - Indignant - Reqaaba