Sunday, May 19, 2013

busy Sunday

there is racing all over the place today, but the 3 meetings in the U.K., two of them over jumps, do not inspire much confidence, while the best race in Ireland is the listed Vintage Crop Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at Navan at 17.15 CET. Aidan O´Brien has won this repeatedly with his top stayers and now saddles the very promising El Salvador (Joseph O´Brien), who has won all his 3 starts this season and can stay on the winning trail today. he is up in trip but judging by the way the son of Galileo won last time, this should present no problem. Dermot Weld would obviously like to win this, as he trained Vintage Crop, the first non-Australian horse to win the Melbourne Cup, but his filly Voleuse de Coeurs (Pat Smullen) was well held by El Salvador last time, and even on better terms is not expected to reverse the form. She can certainly stay, having won the Irish Cesarewitch last season by 10 lengths from Missunited (Michael Winters/ Seamus Heffernan), who is now 7 lbs better off. El Salvadort, still very lightly-raced, could well be a candidate for top staying honours by the end of the season and should therefore win this without too much fuss.
The only flat racing in Britain is at Ripon, where the best race is the mile handicap at 16.40. Any of the 8 runners could win this, but 8yo Dubai Dynamo (Ruth Carr/ James Sullivan) won it last year and could go close again, while 9yo Osteopathic remedy (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley), while inconsistent, runs his best races here. The fillies handicap over 6 furlongs half an hour earlier is also very open, but the two 3yo´s in the field look dangerous, Body and Soul (Tim Easterby/ Duran Fentiman) and Hoodna (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona), as the older runners mainly look exposed. With the Godolphin horses now coming into form, Hoodna is preferred.
Over jumps, we think that German-bred Passato (Jo Davis/ Richie McLernon) could have an each-way chance in the handicap chase at 16.20 at Stratford. The Lando gelding has won 4 times at this track over shorter distances, but also stays today´s trip of 2 1/2 miles. Much more Stamina is required over hurdles half an hour later; Ukrainian Star (Martin Keighley/ Ian Popham) is one of the few guaranteed to stay the trip and is another each-way selection.
Another German-bred we like is Iolith (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) in the handicap hurdle at 16.30 at Market Rasen. The Monsun gelding was off the track for almost two years, but if he is anywhere near his best form can win today from lightly-raced top-weight Brassick (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) and Va´Vite ((Tony Middleton/ Joseph Banks), who is unpenalised for winning an easier race at Aintree on Friday.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Keep The Cash - Armedandbeautiful - Milor De La Borie
2. Race: Madeira Girl - Golden Acorn - Lillybrook
3. Race: Woolcombe Folly - Pepite Rose - Buck Mulligan
4. Race: Sail And Return - Knighton Combe - Green Bank
5. Race: Prospect Wells - Nagpur - Di Kaprio
6. Race: The Road Ahead - Prideofthecastle - Algernon Pazham