Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket

The classic season starts today with the 2,000 Guineas at 16.50 CET at Newmarket, which promises to be a cracking race with the strong likelihood (in our view) of an Irish winner. The Irish have won this race 7 times already this century, with such stars as Sea the Stars and Camelot and they have another star here in Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), who won all his 6 starts last season including the Dewhurst here. He was easily the top-rated 2yo in Europe last year and the trainer is convinced that he has trained on and made the "normal improvement." What is possibly against him is the fact that he has never raced on ground as fast as this, but last year´s bad weather is not his fault. There are 5 more Irish runners in the field, including Bolger´s Leitir Mor, presumably the pacemaker, and three trained by Aidan O´Brien, who has won this race several times. The trainer´s son Joseph has chosen Christoforo Colombo, who will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time, but his overall form does not seem good enough. Mars (Seamus Heffernan) has always been very highly-rated, but has only ever run once - when winning a small maiden on the all-weather in July; even for O´Brien this is a very unorthodox preparation, so we think that possibly George Vancouver (Colm O´Donoghue) could be the best of the trio.

The British defence is headed by Richatrd Hannon, who saddles Toronado (Richard Hughes) and Van der Neer (William Buick), The latter won in very good style on the all-weather last time, but Toronado, unbeaten in 4 starts, is clearly the main hope. He was a very easy winner of the Craven Stakes here last time and is the subject of glowing training reports, but we don´t think that his overall form measures up to that of Dawn Approach. With Frankel and Black Caviar retired, racing needs a new star and Dawn Approach must just be the one.

The Newmarket race is not the only classic today with an Aidan O´Brien runner, as Lines of Battle, last seen winning the UAE Derby, goes for the Kentucky version at 24 minutes past midnight with Ryan Moore in the saddle. It is difficult to know that the Dubai form is worth, but the Americans are very tough to beat in their own backyard. Orb, whose Jockey Joel Rosario won the Dubai World Cup, could start favourite but we expect Todd Pletcher, who won both Group One races here yesterday, to score: he has 5 runners, with Mike Smith, who rode yesterday´s Oaks winner.,on Palace Smith, Rafael Bejarano on Overanalyze, Calvin Borel on Revolutionary, Edgar Prado on Charming Kitten, and John Velasquez, who only returned yesterday from injury, on our choice, the unbeaten Verrazano. Aidan probably won´t mind too much if this one wins, as he is also owned by the Coolmore syndicate.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Basseterre - Icebuster - Whispering Warrior
2. Race: Sole Power - Pearl Secret - Spirit Quartz
3. Race: Noble Mission - Dandino - Universal
4. Race: Dawn Approach - Toronado - Cristoforo Colombo
5. Race: Agerzam - Fils Anges - Secretinthepark
6. Race: Windhoek - High Octane - Unsinkable
7. Race: Country Western - Glean - Ayaar