Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh

the Irish 2000 Guineas to be run at 16.20 CET this afternoon is the first Irish classic of the season and, like all the others, run at the Curragh. Aidan O´Brien has won it 8 times - no other Irish trainer has been succssful in recent years- and now saddles 4 of the 1o runners, with Magician, partnered by his son Joseph, the lilkely favourite. He won the Dee Stakes in excellent style at Chester last time and it is a bit surprising to see him run here over a significantly shorter distance. However he looked really smart that day and as he is expected to relish the fast ground, we think that Joseph has made the right choice. Of his stable companions Gale Force Ten (Seamus Heffernan) was a close 4th in the French Guineas, while George Vancouver (Pat Smullen) looked very promising last year. However the biggest threat will probably come from Jim Bolger´s Trading Leather (Kevin Manning), who is also back down in trip after running second in the Dante. Johnny Murtagh now has his li cense as a trainer and rides his own Fort Knox, bought by Sheikh Mohammed after his easy win at Leopardstown last time, but he has a bit to prove in this company. The only British runners are both trained by Richard Hannon - Van Der Neer (Richard Hughes), who stayed on into third in the English equivalent race, and Havana Gold (Jamie Spencer), just behind Gale Force Ten in the French version. However we expect a home win and go for Magician.
We certainly expect a British win in the Group Three Greenlands Stakes over 6 furlongs at 15.45. Tiddliwinks (Kevin Ryan/ Smullen) won this last year from Jimmy Styles (Clive Cox/ Hughes) with Hitchens (David Barron/ Murtagh) fourth, and they could well dominate again, as the ground is wrong for the main Irish hope, the top-rated Maarek (David Nagle/ Spencer).
The other Group race, the Abu Dhabi Stakes for fillies over a mile, looks tricky. The O´Brien´ s have another good chance here with Was, who after all won the Oaks last year. But that was possibly a fluke and today´s distance hardly seems ideal. We prefer Caponata (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), although she was not impressive when winning at Gowran Park last time. Sir Henry Cecil never sends his horses abroad without good reason, and we therefore expect Chigun (Tom Queally) to come out on top, even though she needs in theory to improve on her rating to score in this company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bye Bye Birdie - Flying Jib - Perhaps
2. Race: Coach House - Stubbs - Club Wexford
3. Race: Maarek - Slade Power - Antious
4. Race: Magician - Van Der Neer - Fort Knox
5. Race: Caponata - Chigun - Was
6. Race: Miracle Cure - Regulation - Fiesolana
7. Race: Sacred Dragon - Machete Mark - Mouteab
8. Race: Eastern Rules - Brown Butterfly - Stronger Than Me