Tuesday, May 31, 2011

5 meetings today

A typical Tuesday with 5 very modest cards, with 2 in the afternoon and 3 (including two over jumps) in the evening. At Leicester this afternoon, the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.15 CET should go to Elusivity (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer), who has run well on both his 2011 starts. Meehan and Dwyer could also double up with Right to Dream in the 3yo maiden at 17.15, but this looks quite tricky and Godolphin´s Universal (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Ahmed Adjebi) could be very dangerous; he was heavily backed on his debut at Nottingham, but could only finish 4th.

The 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 looks the best race at Redcar. Bronze Beau (Linda Stubbs/ James Sullivan) won well last time at Catterick and must have a chance, as he is also a CD winner; but he is now on his highest ever rating, and we prefer top-weight Hamoody (David and Adrian Nicholls), who is not the most consistent but has been running in very tough events, winning a much better race over this trip at last year´s big Gocdwood meeeting.

Frankie Dettori has returned from his Japan expedition and rides this evening at Yarmouth, where his most important ride is Godolphin´s Burj Hatta in the maiden race over a mile at 19.55. There are some interesting prospects entered here, including Polperro (Jphn Gosden/ William Buick) and Albaasil (Sir Michael Stoute/ Richard Hills) while Whey Sauce (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jack Mitchell) is arguably the form choice, having finished third in the Musidora; however that was a much weaker renewal than usual and we shall stick to Burj Hatta.

Over jumps, we expect Domino Dancer (Lucy Jones/ Nathan Sweeney) to complete a May hat-trick in the handicap hurdle at 20.15 at Ffos Las; he loves firm going, is in the form of his life and could still be well-handicapped. In Ireland Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have several live chances at Ballinrobe and could well land a hat-trick with Laganbank at 18.35, Sicilian Scécret at 19.05 and Kerb Appeal an hour later.

Monday, May 30, 2011

Bank Holiday today

Today is a bank holiday in the U.K., which means lots of racing, but almost all at a very low level. The best race in theory is the listed event over a mile at 16.10 CET at Goodwood, with only 6 runners. The favourite here is Rainfall (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan), last seen when third in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket in October, when trained by Mark Johnston, That form - and also her earlier form when winning th Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, gives her an obvious chance in this company. The only danger on ratings is course specialist Tropical Paradise (Peter Winkworth/ Ian Mongan), who won three races, including two listed events, here last year - but all at 7 furlongs.

The best betting race of the day is the Zetland Gold Cup, a 10 furlongs handicap at 17.10 at Redcar. This looks a very competitive renewal with 15 runners. Saeed bin Suroor saddles here the lightly-raced Sarrsar (Tony Culhane), expected to improve on his seasonal debut when he finished 6th. However Jutland (Mark Johnston/ Adrian Nicholls) is an obvious danger, as is Prince of Johanne (Tom Tate/ Robert Winston), who has won his last 4 races, but gone up in the ratings accordingly and faces much tougher opposition this time. The handicapper has given a chance to Sirvino (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons) and especially to the smart Halicarnassus (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley), who has mainly racing over longer distances but should be ideally suited by a strongly-run race over this trip.

The most interesting race at the 3 N.H. meetings is the novice chase at 16.25 at Towcester. Only 4 runners, but all looking quite useful. German-bred Ostland, runner-up in the German Derby 3 years ago, failed to win over hurdles but was a very easy winner on his debut over fences at Fontwell and gets our vote here.

The only evening racing is in Ireland at Ballinrobe, with 3 flat races, 3 over sticks and a bumper. Best bet here is Malayan Mist (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who scored last time in promising style at Gowran Park and should take this slight rise in class in her stride.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

5 meetings today

As is often the case on a Tuesday, only very modest sport is on offer at today´s 5 meetings - three flat meetings on the flat in the afternoon and two over jumps in the evening. At Ripon, Maktoum al Maktoum must have a good chance of winning the 3yo handicap at 16.10 CET, as he owns 3 of the 7 runners. Jockey bookings suggest that Taqaat (Mark Johnston/ Tagdh O´Shea) is the stable´s number one, and the same owner/trainer/ jockey team can also land the first division of the 3yo maiden at 17.40 with Qenaa, now up in trip to a mile. Mark Johnston can also win the second division at 1.40 with Carrowbeg (Joe Fanning).

Lingfield has lost its main attraction, which would have been not a horse but a jockey: the American Mike Smith, regular partner of superfilly Zenyatta, had 5 rides booked but has had to give them up owing to possible problems with his visa. In his absence the card is very dull, but possibly Firstknight, representing the Cologne winning team of Marco Botti and Adam Kirby, has an each-way chance in the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 17.00.

Best bet at Chepstow is Beaumont´s Party (Andrew Baldíng/ David Probert), who was a very easy winner at Chester on Saturday. He now has a 6 lbs penalty in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.20 but appeared to have much more in hand.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Goldikova at Longchamp

a very strong card at Longchamp this afternoon, but the star of the show is undoubtedly the 6yo mare Goldikova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier), who makes her seasonal debut in the Group One Prox d´Ispahan over 1850 metres at 15.45 CET. The 12 times Group On winner (a world record) win this last year, also on her debut, against Byword (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), who reopposes today. Course specialist Cirrus des Aigles (Corinne Barande-Barbe/ Christophe Soumillon) could also run well, but we are less convinced by Dick Turpin (Richard Hannon/ Dick Turpin), a big diappointment at Newbury last week. Goldikova is not unbeatable, but all racing fans will hope that she starts her final season with another commanding performance.
The other Group One on the card is the Prix Saint-Alary for 3yo fillies at 15.30, a major trial for the Prix de Diane. This looks quite a puzzle this year, but possibly Epic Love (Pascal Bary/ Stephane Pasquier) could be the answer. The Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over 3100 metres at 16.20 sees several of France´s leading stayers in the field. They all met last time in the Prix de Barbeville won by Dunaden (Mikel Delzangles/ Gregory Benoist) and there seems to be no reason why he should not hold them again. However the Godolphin raider OpinionPoll (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona) is made of sterner stuff and is our selection.
Another British winner could be Hurricane Higgins (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) in the listed Prix de l´Avre for 3yo´s over 2400 metres at 15.00. He rn very gren when runnr-up on th:Lingfield Drby trial and should improve a lot for that. German hope Ibicenco (Jens Hirschberger/ Tom Queally), one of Schlenderhan´s strong team of classic hopefuls, is the main danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Don Bosco - Sommerabend - Plain Vanilla
2. Race: Genzy - Hurricane Higgins - Shamar
3. Race: Epic Love - Dalarua - Don`T Hurry Me
4. Race: Le Bosphore - Al Nejmaa - On The Road Jack
5. Race: Goldikova - Dick Turpin - Byword
6. Race: Dunaden - Opinion Poll - Mashoor
7. Race: Montanaro - Mythomane - Law Blade
8. Race: Fannon Blue - Ziktat - Piccolo

Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh

the big Curragh meeting continues today with the Irish 1,000 Guineas at 17.15 CET as the highlight. 15 fillies line up for the classic, with Aidan O´Brien (4 runners), Kevin Prendergast (3), and Jim Bolger and John Oxx with 2 runners each, making up most of the field. Majestic Dubawi (Mick Channon/ Neil Callan) is the sole British challenger, but with the best will in the world it is almost impossible to see her making the frame.
After yesterday´s triumph for the O´Brien family, it is quite likely that they will complete the double here, although the trainer´s son Joseph, who had the starring role yesterday, is now back to riding the pacemaker Look at Me. Together (Ryan Moore), runner-up at Newmarket, looks the stable´s first string, although Misty for Me (Seamus Heffernan) must also have good prospects. The Oxx runners look the main dangers, with stable jockey
Johnny Murtagh aboard the Aga Khan´s Emiyna, who beat the older Lolly for Dolly in a Group Three last time. That form is not good enough, but the shrewd Oxx is convinced that his filly has improved a lot since then. However it is difficult to get away from the claims of Together, who looked the likely winner at Newmarket before Dettori came with a rush up the rail. Of the rest Banimpire (Bolger/ Kevin Manning) who has already been busy this year and won her last 3 races, looks the best, although Coolmore have another string to thwir bow with Chrysanthemum (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), who won both her starts last year but has been off the track since September; she is the only runner not to have had a start in 2011.
The main supporting feature is the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group One for older horses, 10 1/2 furlongs) at 16.10. This race should be worth watching, but not having bet on, as So You Think (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) looks unbeatable and will start at an unbackable price to initiate a big race double for the stable. The Austalian superstar caused an uproar in his native country when sold to Coolmore, but their loss is Europe´s gain as he appears to be a huge talent and is expected to play a leading role in all the top races this season. Famous Name (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) is more of a Leopardstown specialist, but is very consistent. Connections are hoping to win a Group One with him, but he looks booked for second place here. Campanologist (Saeed bin Suroor/ Johnny Murtagh) woll probably finish third of the 5 runners; the Godolphin runner won two Group Ones in Germany last year, but has never faced anything of the calibre of So You Think.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Foot Soldier - Fastidious - Reply
2. Race: Nidian - Phoebe Van Gelder - Maarek
3. Race: Adilapour - Alexander Pope - Banksters Bonus
4. Race: So You Think - Famous Name - Campanologist
5. Race: Zerashan - Bob Le Beau - High Importance
6. Race: Together - Emiyna - Banimpire
7. Race: Kasih - Theoretically - Zayin Barakaldo
8. Race: Apache - No Such Number - Irish Review

Saturday, May 21, 2011

rest of today´s racing

apart from the top meetings at Haydock and the Curragh, there is plenty more good racing today, including listed races at Goodwood and York and some decent handicaps at Chester.
At Goodwood, John Dunlop, who trains nearby, could be the trainer to follow. He saddles Spanish Duke (Ted Durcan) in the 10 furlongs listed event at 16.20 CET. This smart handicapper is moving up in grade here but we think he could be up to the task. Al Zir (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), 6th in last year´s Derby, and Class is Class (Sir Michael Stoute/ William Buick), who won this last year, provide the main opposition. Dunlop and Durcan also have a chance in the opening handicap over 1 172 miles with Harleston Times, disqualified from 2nd place
last time at Epsom, but here we prefer CD specialist Classic Vintage (Amanda Perrett/ Martin Dwyer).The other listed race is over 1 1/2 miles at 17.25 and our choice here is lightly-raced Jet Away (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who holds Passion for Gold (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori) in their latest form together.
Dunlop can also score at York with Times Up (Eddie Ahern), another one moving up in class at 16.10. he is also moving up in distance, as his recent races have all been over 1 1/2 miles, while his few previous attempts at today´s trip of 1 3/4 miles have all ended in defeat. However he seems improved this season and we take him to beat Theology (Jeremy Noseda/ George Baker), who ran poorly last time but certainly stays the trip well enough. The 5 furlongs hamdiap her at 16.40 has 20 runers and looks wide open. Ancient Cross (Mick Easterby/ Graham Gibbons) won a similar race over this CD last week, but Johannes (Richard Fahey/ Lee Topliss) could reverse the form this time on better terms, while Waffle (David Barron/ Silvestre de Sousa), runner-up the last twice, also makes the short list.
Dr. Marwan Koukash is an owner who always likes winning at his local track Chester, and he has plenty of runners there today, including four in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.00. Brae Hill (Fahey/ Barry McHugh) is possibly the form choice, but has an outside draw, always a big problem here, and we prefer Our Jonathan (Kevin Ryan/ Franny Norton); the obvious danger is super-consistent Norville (David Evans/ Cathy Gannon), who has won 5 races already this year and is still on the upgrade.

Betting forecast Goodwood:
1. Race: Take Ten - Fathsta - Lui Rei
2. Race: Beachfire - Harlestone Times - Chock A Block
3. Race: Al Zir - Class Is Class - Forte Dei Marmi
4. Race: Trumpet Major - Hamis Al Bin - Maroosh
5. Race: Jet Away - Steele Tango - Passion For Gold
6. Race: Anton Dolin - Swift Blade - Gower Rules
7. Race: Yasmeena - Perfect Pastime - Welsh Inlet

Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh

the British and French Guineas have already been decided, now it´s the turn of the Irish, with a big meeting at the Curragh over the weekend. The 2,000 at 16.45 CET is the main feature today, with the fillies race due tomorrow. The field for the 2,000 Guineas is relatively small, with only 8 declared, and it looks a match between British challenger Dubawi Gold (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes - the team that scored a year ago with Canford Cliffs) and local hope Dunboyne Express (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough) whose veteran trainer won the race in 1976 (!). WE giv slight preferenc to the Hannon horse, runner-up t a rspectabl distance to Frankel in th Brotish quivalnt, with Slim Sgadey (Stan Moore/ Luke Morris) well back in fourth and Roderic O´Connor, one of 3 Aidan O´Brien runners now and partnered by son Joseph, even further behind. No real reason why they should do any better today, and Zabarajad (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh) could be the leading candidate for third place , even though still a maiden.

There are two more group races on the Curragh card today, as well as a listed race for 2yo´s at 15.40, with several promising types engaged; the two unbeaten runners Power (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) and Fire Lily (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), both representing the same Coolmore owners, should dominate here. O´Brien can also take the Greenlands Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.10 with the 3yo Sing Softly (Colm O´ Donoghue), who has the Yorkshire hopes Tiddliwinks (Kevin Ryan/ Pat Smullen) and Hitchens (David Barron/ Fran Berry) , 3rd and 4th in a strong York Group Two last time, to beat. The Equestrian Stakes for older fillies and mares over a mile at 17.20 looks difficult. Emulous (Dermot Weld/ Smullen) ran badly on very soft going last time, but is top-rated here and on better ground may be able to reverse that form with Lolly for Dolly (Tommy Stack/ Lordan), while we hope that Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Luke Morris) could run into a place at a big price.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: After - Janey Muddles - Remember Alexander
2. Race: Power - Fire Lily - Tough As Nails
3. Race: Tiddliwinks - Hitchens - Sing Softly
4. Race: Dubawi Gold - Dunboyne Express - Roderic O`Connor
5. Race: Lolly For Dolly - Termagant - Emulous
6. Race: Moran Gra - Park Ranger - Aznavour
7. Race: President Lincoln - Future Generation - Act Of Love

Overdose at Haydock!

the most interesting runner at today´s 7 meetings is the Hungarian sprinter Overdose (Josef Roszival/ Andreas Suborics), who goes for the Group Two Temple Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET at Haydock Park. This is the first real test for the Budapest Bullet since his embarrassing flop at Baden-Baden last August. His easy win at Hoppegarten against poor opposition last month showed that he is fit and well and has got over that traumatic experience, but the form itself amounts to very little. He is meeting opponents here of a far differmt calibre, including two 2010 Group One winners - the penalised Markab (Henry Candy/ Pat Cosgrave) and Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Kagn Latham)- 100/1 winner of the Nunthorpe, as well as last years winner Kingsgate Native (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore). The latter has not won since last year´s race, but seems to do best after a break, although Stoute´s runners generally need their first run, However he looks the most serious opponent. Others to consider are Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves), who made all the running to win the Palace House at Newmarket, with Sole Power a close third, and Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Jim Crowley)- a close 4th at Longchamp last Sunday- further back. Rose Blossom (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) missed the break last time, but with her stable in great form, cannot be dismissed. Overdose is a freak and could easily win this if anywhere near his best 2008 form, but the press ballyhoo means that he is likely to start at around 2-1, which to us seems poor value given the open questions and on ground which will be on the fast side, another problem.
The main supporting feature at Haydock is the listed event over 6 furlongs for 3+ fillies at 16.30. With a huge field, this is as tricky as any handicap, but our three against the field are Elshabakiya (Clive Brittain/ Philip Robinson) and Show Rainbow (Mick Channon/ Chris Catlin), who both ran in the Nell Gwyn and 1,000 Guineas and are now dropping in class and distance, and Irish challenger Tweedy (Eddie Lynam/ Keagan Latham) whose domestic form does not read at all badly.
The handicaps look very difficult, but note should be made of Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), who runs in the opening 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles. Owned by footballer Michael Owen, this one ran on very strongly when winning over this trip at Chester and can defy an 8 lbs rise in the weights. He holds an entry in the Germán Derby and must win this if he is to be seriously considered for Hamburg.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cry Fury - Reflect - Wayward Glance
2. Race: Polar Kite - Sikeeb - Crown Counsel
3. Race: Overdose - Kingsgate Native - Markab
4. Race: Aneedah - Golden Destiny - Elshabakiya
5. Race: Sutton Veny - Flowing Cape - Tasmeem
6. Race: Decent Fella - My Gacho - April Fool
7. Race: Frontline Girl - Bolodenka - Dolphin Rock

Friday, May 20, 2011

8 meetings today

Lots of racing in Britain and Ireland today, but all of a very low standard. Haydock stages the second day of its 3-day meeting, but without any highlights. The 3yo mile handicap at 17.00 CET is arguably the best race, and big owner Hamdan al Maktoum has a double chance here with Manaaber (Barry Hills/ Tagdh O´Shea) in the first colours, but we prefer the second string Aglaal (John Gosden/ William Buick), from a stable in top form.

Top weight Oceanway (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) faces a stiff task, and we think Cosmic Moon (Richard Fahey/ Barry McHugh) - from another red hot stable- could be an interesting each-way bet. Frankie Dettori is at Yarmouth, presumably because of Godolphin´s well-bred newcomer Outsmart in the 6 furlongs maiden race at 15.20. He would not need to be anything special to win this event. He also partners John Best´s Hecton Lad in the mile handicap at 16.20, but he has gone up 10 lbs for winning a poor race and we think consistent German-bred Grey Boy (Tony Carroll/ George Downing) is the one to be on here. Dettori also rides Michael Bell´s topweight Babycakes in the fillies handicap at 16.50 and she must have a decent chance, despite having been off the track since November, as most of the others have all-weather form only.

Another all-weather specialist is Ebraam (Ron Harris/ David Probert) who runs in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.40 at Bath. 10 of his 11 wins have come on artificial surfaces, but he ran well enough last time at Warwick to suggest that he can take this modest event.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Classic trials at Goodwood

With only two and a half weeks to go before the Derby meeting, today´s listed races at Goodwood are the last classic trials of any significance, but both have a good record. Last year´s winners Snow Fairy and Rewilding went on to win the Oaks and run third in the Derby respectively. The fillies race over 10 furlongs at 16.10 CET has only 7 runners but still looks quite open.

John Gosden has a strong hand here with 2 runners Highest (Frankie Dettori) and Imperial Pippin (William Buick), both maiden winners last time out and moving up in grade. Beatrice Aurore (John Dunlop/ Ted Durcan) beat Askaud here last time, who runs in the previous race and should give some indication of the value of the form. Date with Destiny (Richard Hannon/ Richrd Hughes) was a well-beaten third in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, but that still gives her a chance here. She is the only product of the ill-fated George Washington and has quite some value as a broodmare if she can win a listed race.

The colts race is over a furlong further at 17.20. Godolphin won this last year and now run Badeel (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori), who looked very useful when winning at Nottingham last time. Auld Burns (Hannon/ Hiughes) also has good form and wn a valuable sales race at Newmarket, while Picture Editor was an intended pacemaker for Frankel last time but could not get to the lead, finally finishing over 12 lengths behind his stable companion. This distance is far more suitable and he can rehabilitate himself here.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

6 meetings today

Once again, 6 low-level meetings today. Brighton´s fixture is as usual very poor, but Ryan Moore, who spent his childhood here, can win the first 3 races on Rocker for his father Gary at 15.20 CET, Chaussini for James Toller at 15.50 and Aye Aye Digby half an hour later for Paul Chamings. Moore then hotfoots it to the evening meeting at Kempton, where he can be on the scoreboard again with Jeremy Noseda´s debutant Red Alpha at 19.00 and Sir Michael Stoute´s Top Diktat at 19.30. He also rides Botanist for Stoute in the mile handicap at 21.30, but this is very open, and Tarooq (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) looks the likeliest winner here. An interesting runner at Kempton is Gestüt Ammerland´s Baltic (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who has a favourite´s chance in the maiden race for 3yo fillies at 20.00.

Another jockey riding at two meetings is Tony McCoy. He goes to Southwell for one ride only, Jonjo O´N eill´s Hard Tackle in the handicap hurdle at 18.20 and then travels on to Towcester, where he can win the novice chase at 21.10 on Warren Greatrex´ Paint the Clouds. He also has a chance on Nicky Henderson´s Sizing Ireland half an hour earlier, but this one does not look too reliable and was turned over at long odds-on last time, German-bred Speedy Direct (Milton Harris/ Jimmy Derham) is preferred.

Frankie Dettori is at Nottingham, where he partners two Godolphin maidens, debutant Universal at 15.30 and Burj Hatta at 17.30, both with winning prospects. Ex-German Andorn, a listed class performer for Schlenderhan, lost his way after being sold to the U.K., but he has certainly found his form now and has won 6 of his last 7 races, including over hurdles earlier ths month. He can continue his winning run in the 2 mile handicap at 16.30.

Monday, May 16, 2011

6 meetings today

Plenty of racing today, but all of it very moderate. Indeed the two flat meetings afternoon at Bath and Wolverhampton consist entirely of class 5 and 6 events. For us, the most interesting race is the 5 furlongs handicap on the all-weather at 17.10 CET at Wolverhampton, in which that admirable old-timer The Tatling (Milton Bradley/ Liam Keniry) attempts to improve his record of 16 wins and 46 places from 156 starts.

He is no longer as good as he used to be, but always gives his best, and he is still capable at the age of 14 of winning a race like this this if everything falls into place. At Bath, the mile handicap at 17.00 could go to top-weight Jewelled(Lady Herries/ Seb Sanders), who likes this track and has Angelena Ballerina (Karen George and Kirsty Milczarek) and Goose Green (Ron Hodges/ Harry Bentley) to beat.

Most interesting event at Windsor´s traditional Monday evening fixture is the conditions race for 2yo´s at 19.30, where all 7 runners are previous winners. Richard Hannon has won the last 2 runnings and supplies the hot favourite Magic City /Richard Hughes), who after an inpressive debut victory at Newbury was beaten at odds-on by Miss Work of Art at Ascot, That form is probably good enough for him to score here.

At Leicester this evening, Lightning Cloud (Kevin Ryan/ Phillip Makin), who showed nothing in 2 outings last year, but started 2011 with an easy win on the all-weather, can continue on his winning way in the 3yo handicap at19.10.

There is N.H. racing this afternoon at Newton Abbot and this evening at Killarney in Ireland. The best race at the former fixture is the handicap hurdle at 16.20. Ghimaar (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) is very lightly raced over sticks, but has won 2 of his 3 starts, while on the flat he is a top staying handicapper. He has not run since taking the Goodwood Stakes last July, but if fully wound up, can take this.

In Ireland, there are some decent performers in the 2 1/2 mile hurdle at 19.50, but we hope that German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara), who has not won for ages, can come back to form here.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Today´s racing in U,K. and Ireland

Mainly low-level racing today. In Ireland Killarney starts its 3 day meeting with quite a competitive N.H card, with a valuable handicap hurdle at 16.25 CET the main feature. A maximum field of 18 go to post, 3 of them owned by JP McManus, including German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey); however his best chance may be Fever Pitch (Arthur Moore/ Alan Crowe), a winner last time at Tramore. The main danger could be Grey Soldier (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell), 5th of 19 in a hot race at Punchestown last time. Another German-bred of interest could be Maremotto (E Fehily/ PT Enright), who runs in the maiden hurdle at 5.55. He showed smart form when winning 4 successive races in Germany in 2007. He probably can no longer run up to this level, and has been off the track for almost 2 years, but this opposition does not look very demanding.

There is also flat racing in Ireland at Navan. The fillies handicap over 10 furlongs at 17.15 is the most valuable event and could go to Jessica Harrington´s improving 3yo Crystal Morning (Shane Foley). More interesting could be the 3yo maiden over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 16.15, wíth several very lightly-raced but well-bred participants. John Oxx has won this the past 2 years and can take it again with the Aga Khan´s Wakhan (Johnny Murtagh).

The racing in the U.K. is of very little interest. The mile handicap at 16.40 at Ripon is quite an open race. Top-weight Sarrsar (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) could start favourite here, but we prefer Snow Bay (David Nicholls/ Franny Norton) and Kay Gee Be (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton), but all 3 stables are likely to be much more interested in the goings-on at Longchamp than here. The jumps racing is very poor, and the continued dry spell means that there will be very small fields at Market Rasen.

Killarney - betting forecast:
1. Race: Akatara - Luddenmore - Banyan Tree
2. Race: Ross Na Righ - Trabajo - Zagman
3. Race: Action Master - Total Excitement - Pozyc
4. Race: Our Eric - Gala Dancer - Flemensford
5. Race: Apt Approach - Made In Taipan - Psycho
6. Race: Quiamo Malta - Information - Radharc Na Mara
7. Race: Kaylas Charm - Brown One - A Country Girl

French Guineas at Longchamp

Easily the best racing in Europe today takes place in France, where Longchamp stages one of its best days of the year, highlighted by the French equivalents of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas. Both have very strong fields with fancied runners from Britain, and we hope that Wootton Bassett (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) can take the Poule d´Essai des Poulains (2,000) at 16.25 CET.

After winning two valuable sales races in England, he provide trainer and jockey with their first ever Group One when making all to take the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over this CD last October and on that form can follow up by winning them their first classic. He is not ideally drawn, but with the stable in fantastic form can dominate these opponents. Godolphin supply possibly the most dangerous opponents , with Modern History (Andre Fabre/ Mikael Barzalona) in their French colours and the supplemented Midsummer Fair (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) in blue. Of the home hopefuls, Glaswegian (Pascal Bary/ Stephane Pasquier) has the best prospects, having beaten 7 of these when taking the Prix de Fontainebleau. However that form looks slightly suspect, and possibly Surfrider (Eric Libaud/ Christophe Lemaire) and Havana Smoker (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Ioritz Mendizibal), first and second in the Prix Djebel, are the strongest French candidates. Irish hope Imperial Fame (David Wach man/ Ryan Moore) is another unbeaten runner and by no means without a chance.

The Poule d´Essair des Pouliches (1,000) at 15.08 also has a huge field and a strong favourite -Golden Lilac (Andre Fabre/ Olivier Peslier), owned by Gestüt Ammerland. She has won all her 3 starts in good style and was particularly impressive when taking the Prix de la Grotte over this CD last time. There is a strong British challenge here as well, headed by Maqaasid (John Gosden/Richard Hills), 3rd in the 1,000 at Newmarket, and Rimth (Paul Cole/ Christophe Soumillon), supplemented for this after winning the Fred Darling at Newbury. Godolphin now run Zoowraa (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Dettori), unbeaten in 2 starts last year for Michael Jarvis, while the Irish hope Wild Wind (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) has been beaten on both starts this year, and both of these will have to improve. The main threat to Golden Lilac could be Helleborine (Criquette Head-Maarek/ Pasquier) whose stable has a very good record in this event.

The Group Two Prix Hocquart for 3yo´s over 2200 metres at 14.30 is a significant Derby trial and there could even be a German winner, as unbeaten Lindenthaler (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) looks very useful after winning all 3 starts. He is certain to finish in the money as there are only 5 runners. Godolphin again provide the main opposition with Grand Vent (Fabre/ Barzalona) and Genius Beast (Zarooni/ Dettori); we expect the last-named, who missed the Dante for this. to win, but this race should certainly be informative.

The Prix de Saint-Georges over 1000 metres at 15.45 sees many of Europe´s leading sprinters in the line-up. Mikel Delzangles saddles Marchand d´Or (Davy Bonilla) and Total Gallery (Gregory Benoist), both past winners of the Abbaye. The former won this race last year, but he is no longer as consistent as he used to be. His seasonal debut could be the time to catch him, but we prefer Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Dettori).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Testosterone - Avongrove - Skallet
2. Race: Prairie Star - Genius Beast - Prairie Star
3. Race: Golden Lilac - Helleborine - Rimth
4. Race: Inxile - Mar Adentro - Marchand D`Or
5. Race: Glaswegian - Salto - Modern History

6. Race: Curro Perote - King Air - Verglacial
7. Race: Valiyr - Pedregalejo - Golden Criss
8. Race: Stelrock - Marosh - Umiro

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Rest of today´s racing

The listed Aston Park Stakes over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.00 CET is the main supporting fixture at Newbury and has attracted a strong field. Front-runner Akmar (John Dunlop/ Richard Hills) could win this if given a soft lead, while the very consistent Pollys Mark (Clive Cox/ Luke Morris) and Drunken Sailor (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon)probably need a bit of rain to be effective, leaving the Tiger Hill filly Ship´s Biscuit (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) as the chief danger. The other big race at Newbury is the London Gold Cup, a 10 furlongs handicap for 3yo s at 16.10. This looks really tricky as all the runners are lightly-raced and it is certain that several will leave their handicap well behind before long. The Queen´s General Synod (Richard Hannon/ Jamie Spencer) is one of those who have only run 3 times and he is on the short list, together with Dominant (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), who looked very unlucky at Sandown last time.

Main feature at Newmarket is a valuable handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 15.50, which also looks wide open. Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) won this last year and would have an excellent chance of following up off this mark, but appears to have lost form completely. The winners trophy could well go north, as Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey both saddle 3 runners and Jim Goldie two. Of these we prefer Goldie´s top-weight Nanton (Danny Tudhope), who has not won for 20 months, but has generally been running well in top handicaps. The big threat is Abergavenny (Brian Ellison/ Paul Pickard), who has won twice over hurdles recenty and looks dangerously well-handicapped on the flat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: No Heretic - Fiorente - Searing Heat
2. Race: Polly`S Mark - Drunken Sailor - Ship`S Biscuit
3. Race: Mac`S Power - Addictive Dream - Spanish Bounty
4. Race: Dominant - Labarinto - Fulgur
5. Race: Canford Cliffs - Dick Turpin - Twice Over
6. Race: Sure Route - Manaaber - Flashbang
7. Race: Skilful - Rougette - Shahzan
8. Race: Midsummer Sun - Mijhaar - Antarctic

Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

the Group One Lockinge Stakes at 16.45 CET is the best race of the day and is also the best early season race for top milers. Richard Hannon is very strong in this department and won it last year with Paco Boy, who had the bad luck to come up against Goldikova several times but was clearly the second best miler in Europe; he is now at stud but Hannon holds a strong hand today with Canford Cliffs (Richard Hughes) and Dick Turpin (Ryan Moore). Hannon was reportedly reluctant to race this pair against each other so early on the year, but both owners wanted to run. They have run against each other before, with the score standing 2-2, and there is clearly little between them, but Canford Cliffs probably has a slight edge, even though Dick Turpin has already won in good style this year.

Red Jazz (Barry and Michael Hills) and Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) finished 3rd and 4th in the Godolphin Mile at Meydan in March and could also get involved, while Twice Over is an interesting runner for the Khalid Abdullah/ Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally team. He was 3rd here in 2009, but all his runs since have been over 10 furlongs and include many top level successes. On ratings he has a good chance, but we do not believe he will be effective at this trip against the specialists. Worthadd (Vittorio Caruso/ Mirco Demuro) is the best 4yo in Italy, and won the local 2,000 Guineas and Derby last year. His chance is difficult to assess, but Italian form is usually not nearly as strong as British form.

Canford Cliffs is the likeliest winner, but he has not run since winning the Sussex Stakes (Premio Loco third) in July and looks as if he will start a very warm favourite. He does not in our view represent any value and a small each-way bet on Premio Loco (who we remember well from his two German wins in 2009) could be a better bet.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: No Heretic - Fiorente - Searing Heat
2. Race: Polly`S Mark - Drunken Sailor - Ship`S Biscuit
3. Race: Mac`S Power - Addictive Dream - Spanish Bounty
4. Race: Dominant - Labarinto - Fulgur
5. Race: Canford Cliffs - Dick Turpin - Twice Over
6. Race: Sure Route - Manaaber - Flashbang
7. Race: Skilful - Rougette - Shahzan
8. Race: Midsummer Sun - Mijhaar - Antarctic

Newbury today

There is racing all over today but apart from York, the only quality sport is to be seen at Newbury, where there are 2 listed races on the card. The race over 10 furlongs at 15.10 is for 3yo fillies and most of the fillies have an Oaks entry, though none are likely to make much impact at that level from what we have seen so far. John Gosden, whose stable is in form, has two runners here Devastation (Nicky Mackay) and Izzi Top (Dane O´Neill). When they met last October in Doncaster, the former came out on top, but she has not run since, while Izzi Top has already run twice this season, so could have an advantage here. However the likeliest winner in our view is the German-bred Rumh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), a daughter of Monsun, an easy winner at Wolverhampton in October and expected to be able to hold her own in better company.

The other listed race is over 6 furlongs at 17.20. Elzaam (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills) found the trip too far last time, but should be well suited by today´s distance. However we prefer Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ O´Neill) who did not get the run of the race when third to the smart Genki at Newmarket last time. Another German-bred of interest is Mauritino (Jonjo O´Neill/ Jim Crowley) who runs in the 10 furlongs handicap at 15.40. He has not run on the flat for a while, but has been in good form over jumps, winning his last 2 races, and won 4 races in Germany in 2009. He could well be on a very favourable mark here.

Friday, May 13, 2011

York Dante meeting: final day

The third and final day of York´s Dante Meeting has as its main event the Group Two Yorkshire Cup over 1 3/4 miles at 15.30 CET. This is the first of a series of Cup races for stayers although most of them are run over a much longer distance. The distance could be a problem for several runners today - for some because it is possibly too far - e.g. Duncan (John Gosden/ William Buick), who is top-rated but also penalised, and has never yet run beyond 1 1/2 miles, or Native Ruler (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), beaten a short-head on his reappearance at Newbury last time after a lay-off of 18 months - with the additional risk of of bouncing. Manighar (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), 7th last time in the Melbourne Cup, possibly needs further, as does Electrolyser (Clive Cox/ Philip Robinson). In a tricky race, our choice is Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker), out of an Acatenango mare, who won the Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles last time; the Queen´s Free Agent (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) was third then and seemingly held, but after the owner won the Dante yesterday, a Group Two double in the royal colours is certainly possible.

The York card also features 2 listed races for fillies - over 5 furlongs for 2yo´s at 14.30 and over a mile for 3yo´s at 16.00. The former event is one of the best juvenile races so far this season, with 8 previous winners in the line-up. Miss Work of Art (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) is the obvious favourite here; after winning first time out on the all-weather, she stepped up considerably on that form to beat a Hannon hotpot next time out at Ascot and will take all the beating here. The 3yo race should go to Theyskan´ s Theory (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer), 6th of 13 last time out in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. She has a 5 lbs penalty here, but has easily the highest rating in the field.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Miss Work Of Art - Pyman`S Theory - Sweet Chilli
2. Race: Awsaal - Kansai Spirit - The Fonz
3. Race: Duncan - Native Ruler - Manighar
4. Race: Theyskens` Theory - Flood Plain - Emma`S Gift
5. Race: Mr Optimistic - Oh So Kool - Jamaican Bolt
6. Race: Horseradish - Hoof It - Docofthebay
7. Race: First Battalion - Ittirad - Man Of God

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Dante Stakes at York

The Group Two Dante Stakes over an extended 10 furlongs at 15.30 CET has over the years always been the most reliable trial for the Derby, and today´s running is no exception as the 6 runners include 3 leading fancies for Epsom. 4 of the last 7 Derby winners ran here (they did not all win- Workforce finished second last year)- and whoever wins today is almost certain to start favourite at Epsom.

The problem , as so often in these trials, is that one has to choose between proven form and high promise. The latter category is represented by the Queen´s Carlton House (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and World Domination (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), while the proven form is provided by Irish raider Seville (Aidan O´Brien/ Christophe Soumillon), who finished last season by running up to Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy. As a result he is clear best on ratings here, and with the O´Brien 3yo´s currently on the crest of a wave, he will be hard to beat. The choice of Soumillon as jockey suggests that he will also partner the colt in the Derby.

Carlton House would obviously be a popular winner. The Queen has owned many classic winners in her long career as an owner and breeder, but has never so far won the Derby. The owner likes to see her top horses run; she may not make it to York but she will certainly be at Epsom, where she traditionally greets the winning connections in the Royal Box. Carlton House showed a great deal of promise in his two starts in 2010, but clearly this is a big move up. Stoute and Moore won the Derby last year, but the stable has not yet hit top form, which tempers confidence.
Workforce is owned by Khalid Abdullah, and the Saudi prince has another strong entry here in World Domination, who may well live up to his name, judging by the excellent impression he made on his debut at Newbury nearly a month ago. This team has already taken the 2,000 Guineas this year with the outstanding Frankel, but the decision was quickly made to keep him at a mile for the time being; in World Domination they may have a more than adequate deputy.

The other 3 runners look outclassed, although a good run from Yaseer (Marcus Tregoning), from the family of Nashwan, would come as no surprise; however he was 9 lengths behind Carlton House in 2010. In a fascinating renewal we expect to see World Domination and Seville fight out the finish.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Johannes - Falasteen - Blue Jack
2. Race: Midday - Timepiece - Music Show
3. Race: Seville - World Domination - Carlton House
4. Race: St Moritz - Fareer - Justonefortheroad
5. Race: Night Carnation - Margot Did - Move In Time
6. Race: Giorgio`S Dragon - Come On Blue Chip - Tortoni
7. Race: Warne`S Way - Hollins - Hawridge Star

Rest of York

The main supporting race at York is the Group Two Middleton Stakes for older fillies and mares over an extended 10 furlongs at 15.00 CET. This looks at the mercy of Midday (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who finished scond to Sariska here last year. There is no Sariska in this field, and Midday, who has 5 Group One victories to her credit, appears to have a simple task, even though she has to concede 5 lbs all round. Timepiece (Ian Mongan), also owned by Khalid Abdullah and trained by Cecil, could well round things off for the stable by taking second place. Saajjhaa (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) having her first run for this stable, who took the Duke of York Stakes here yesterday, could also run into a place. On ratings Music Show (Mick Channon/ Jamie Spencer) is also a danger; her second place to Goldikova at Deauville last August was a good performance, but that race, like most of her other starts, was over a mile and it is not clear that she will stay today´s trip.

The 3 handicaps on the card are extremely difficult, with 18+ runners in each. What is interesting is that last year´s winners are engaged again in all 3 of them. They are Johannes (Richard Fahey) in the 5 furlongs race at 14.30, top-weight Fareer (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Hills) over a mile at 16.00 and Hollins (Micky Hammond/ Freddie Tylicki) over 2 1/4 miles at 17.45. Of these we think that Johannes, whose stable is in tremendous form, has the best prospect of doubling up. However in the mile race, we prefer Balducci (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Crystal Gal (Lucy Wadham/ Ryan Moore), and in the stayers´ event Warnes Way (Brendan Powell/ KIeren Fallon) and -if it rains- Hawridge Star (Wilf Kittow/ Ryan Moore).

Today´s other meetings are of much less interest, but one should note that many of the jockeys riding at York are also in action at this evening´s meeting at Newmarket, where most of them live. In particular the German-bred and -owned Wild Coco (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who makes his debut in the 3o maiden at 20.25, is worth a second look. The opposition includes another German-bred Lyric Street (Luca Cumani/ Fallon), who is out of multiple Group One winner Elle Danzig.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

York Dante meeting: first day

the Dante meeting starts today with a high class card, with the Musidora Stakes for 3yo fillies at 15.30 CET as the main event. This Oaks trial has only 5 runners but is still quite problematic. Barefoot Lady (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) is the form choice here, having finished 5th in the 1,000 Guineas, but she has never run beyond a mile. Trainer and jockey, who both have an excellent record at this track, are convinced that she will get the extra distance, but is not certain, and we prefer Arizona Jewel, who can kick off a highly successful week for owner Khalid Abdullah, trainer Henry Cecil and jockey Tom Queally.

She is certainly bred to stay, her dam having won the Lancashire Oaks, but she is moving up sharply in grade after winning a Sandown maiden last time. However she created a very strong impression that day and is expected to go on to much better things. Aidan O´Brien, whose stable has really hit form, sends over Amazing Beauty (Ryan Moore) from Ireland; both her starts so far were at the all-weather track at Dundalk, which is certainly not the usual preparation for a classic hopeful. O´Brien sent 4 horses to last week´s Chester meeting and, with Moore in the saddle, they all won easily, so his runners cannot be lightly dismissed. Joviality (John Gosden/ William Buick) represents another stable in good form, but she is also stepping up on trip and is also still a maiden. If there is an Oaks winner in this field, it can only in our opinion be Arizona Jewel, so we hope she wins convincingly today.

The other big race here is the Group Two Duke of York Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.00 which, with 14 runners, looks very tricky, and question marks over several of the runners. Prime Defender (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston) won this last year, but he is extremely inconsistent, not to say unreliable. He finished well behind Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) a month ago, and the latter will be one of the favourites today; he is a top handicapper over this trip, but we are not sure that he is up to Group Two standard. Dalghar (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Delegator (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) both have smart form at a mile but are unproven at this trip.

They are certainly classy enough - Delegator even finished runner-up to Sea the Stars in the 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago, while Dalghar had good form when trained in France for the Aga Khan and is a half-brother to the top class 12 furlongs performers Dalakhani and Daylami. No surprise then if either of this pair were to win, while Markab (Henry Candy/ Pat Cosgrave) and Regal Parade (David and Adrian Nicholls) are the two latest winners of the Group One Haydock sprint over this trip. with Markab now lumbered with a 7 lbs penalty, we regard Regal Parade as the safest option here, but the only 3yo in the field Ladies are Forever (Geoff Oldroyd/ Tom Eaves) is another danger off her light weight.

The other races are all very competitive, but it is often the best policy at York to follow Richard Fahey, who has several good possibilities today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Taqleed - Pekan Star - Pleasant Day
2. Race: Shropshire - Baptist - Chiswick Bey
3. Race: Arizona Jewel - Joviality - Amazing Beauty
4. Race: Markab - Regal Parade - Dalghar
5. Race: Satwa Moon - Becausewecan - Lovers Causeway
6. Race: Monnoyer - Ponty Acclaim - Hamza
7. Race: Sud Pacifique - Rain Mac - Discovery Bay

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

5 bad meetings today

5 meetings today, but nothing much of consequence. The most interesting race is the10 furlongs handicap at 17.20 CET at Yarmouth, but this sets punters quite a problem, as ex-French Satwa Pearl (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon), not seen since winning on Deauville´s all-weather track in March, and Roger Varian´s very lightly-raced Rock my Soul (Neil Callan) are very difficult to assess.

Both come from top stables and must be respected, but we prefer top-weight Piano (John Gosden/ William Buick), who has finished in the money on all career starts and was possibly not suited by the way the race was run when a beaten favourite last time at Haydock.

The mile handicap for 3yo´s at 16.40 at Warwick is another open affair. The problem here is that only two runners have recent form- Tadfeya (Mark Johnston/ Richard Hills) and Ektibaas (Barry Hills/ Seb Sanders), both owned by Hamdan al Maktoum. As Hills is the owner´s main jockey, we can assume that his mount is the main hope. However top-weights Sagramore (Hughie Morrison/ Steve Drowne) and Whaileyy (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) could both be dangerous.

Barry Hills also has good prospects of landing a double at Beverley, with Hail Promenader in the mile handicap at 17.00 and Power Punch in the 4yo maiden half an hour later, both with Robert Winston in the saddle. Taqaat, another Hamdan runner trained by Johnston (who has runners all over the place today) looks the onlydanger to Power Punch. W inston can also win the 5 furlongs handicap on Mel Brittain´s course specialist Caranbola at 16.00; his record over this CD runs 22111.

This evening there is an all amateur riders card over jumps at Sedgefield and racing on the all-weather at Southwell, but, to be honest, neither is worth a second look.

Monday, May 09, 2011

6 meetings today

There are 6 meetings today, but nothing of much significance. Easily the best event is the listed race over a mile at 19.40 CET at Windsor´s evening meeting. Side Glance (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) was a very consistent handicapper last season, but seems to have moved up a gear this year and was a very easy winner of a similar race at Ascot 12 days ago. A repetition of that form would be good enough to see him score again here and he looks well up to group race standard. The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/ Kieren Fallon), was narrowly beaten by the smart Lolly for Dolly in Ireland last time was pulled out of a better race than this on Saturday and looks the only danger, as Penitent (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) probably needs softer going.

Henry Cecil rarely sends runners to Brighton, so Emilio Largo (Tom Queally), his only runner of the day, is of interest. Trained last year by Ralph Beckett, he was 5th of 10 in quite a decent maiden at Salisbury in May. He has not been seen since, but should still be good enough to take the mile maiden at 16.10, where Muhandis (Ed Dunlop/ Richard Hills) looks the only conceivable danger. We also expect top-weight Piazza san Pietro (Andy Haynes/ Neil Callan), who has a good record at Brighton, to take the 6 furlongs handicap here at 17.40.

The best race at Redcar is the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.50. In an open race our suggestion is Ezra Church (David Barron/ Lee Newman), a close second at Newcastle last week, but Frognal (Ruth Carr/ James Sullivan) and Rio Cobolo (David and Adrian Nicholls) also look dangerous.

The other meetings, at Wolverhampton (all-weather) this afternoon , and this evening at Roscommon (Ireland) and Towcester (N.H.), with all respect, are hardly worth a second glance.

Sunday, May 08, 2011

Classic trials at Leopardstown

This week´s series of classic trials continues this afternoon at Leopardstown, where the main event is the Group Two Derby Trial over 10 furlongs at 17.15 CET. Aidan O´Brien has won this race 7 times in the last 10 years, and with his 3yo´s now in commanding form, can confidently be expected to score again. It would appear that Recital (Kieren Fallon) is his best chance; he won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last November, establishing him as a major classic candidate. However O´Brien´s two other runners can also not be ignored, especially Regent Street (Seamus Heffernan), who actually finished in front of Recital on his seasonal debut over this CD. Recital started at odds-on then and is now taken to reverse the form. Zanughan (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh) was an easy winner of a Navan maiden and is taking a huge leap in class, but looks the main threat to the O´Brien trio.

The 1,000 Guineas trial half an hour later looks much more open. O´Brin hass onlyon runner here, Germstone Heffernan), who needs to improve. Handassa (Kevin Prndergast/ Declan McDonogh), Sapphire Pendant (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) and Zaminast (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) have all won their only start and could be anything, but are obviously untested at this level. Oxx saddles two runners, of whom Manieree is the choice of stable jockey Murtagh, and she looks the most solid option.

Note: There is no flat racing in the U.K. today, and the three N.H. fixtures are all of a very low standard.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pinkisthecolour - Vegas Rocks - Dayrina
2. Race: Nantucket Bay - Brown Butterfly - Admiral Of The Red
3. Race: Rock Medley - Celtic Dane - Zerashan
4. Race: Recital - Zanughan - Regent Street
5. Race: Handassa - Manieree - Gemstone
6. Race: Duc De Savoie - Skyway - Aznavour
7. Race: Famous Name - Across The Rhine - Barack

Saturday, May 07, 2011

Victoria Cup at Ascot

The Victoria Cup, a handicap over the straight 7 furlongs at 16.25 CET is the big betting race at Ascot today and is always one of the hottest handicaps of the year. With 29 runners, the field is likely to split into 2 or even 3 groups, and unless we know where the ground is fastest it is very risky making a bet. The previous race, over the straight mile, might give some clues, but has only 14 runners.

However we might get some hint from the performance of the two likely favourites Entitled (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), drawn on the outside, and Frances Stuart (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) drawn near the inside rail.

Ante-post favourite Horseradish (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) is drawn 1 in the Victoria Cup, which might be a huge advantage. He is tremendously consistent and has won 4 of his last 6 starts, and has in all probability not finished winning yet. Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Gary Bartley) was a good 4th of 24 in a hot Newmarket haandicap week ago, but he seems best at 6 furlongs, and we think the main danger could be Brae Hill, from the in-form stable of Richard Fahey with the smart claimer Lee Topliss in the saddle. He is drawn in the middle, giving his jockey more options, though he will have to make a quick decision. He does not have a good strike rate, and 2 of his 3 wins have come at Chester, a much different track, but he has been running well in these big handicaps and we feel he has a good each-way chance here.

The classiest race at Ascot (though not nearly as valuable) is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 15.20. Alainmaar (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills) has not run since last May because of an injury, but if he is anywhere near peak form whould win this. He has won 4 of his 5 starts - all over 10 furlongs- but the extra quarter-mile should not be a problem, and he looks like a group winner in the making. Sir Michael Stoute has not hit top form yet, but his Verdant (Ryan Moore), a disappointing favourite at Newbury last time, looks the main danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alainmaar - Verdant - Shamali
2. Race: Entitled - Frances Stuart - Maid In Heaven
3. Race: Horseradish - Hawkeyethenoo - Shamandar
4. Race: North Star Boy - Bayleyf - Charles The Great
5. Race: Rock A Doodle Doo - Udabaa - Blissful Moment
6. Race: Chiefdom Prince - Crown Choice - Kuanyao

Mixed card at Haydock

Haydock stages what is probably the best mixed card of the year today, with 4 flat races and three over jumps, including the valuable Swinton Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles at 16.40 CET, the last big N.H. race of the spring in the U.K. With 23 runners this is very open, but Nicky Henderson has strong hand with 3 runners, including last year´s winner and top-weight Eradicate (Jeremiah McGrath), the much-improved Remember Now (Tony McCoy), a half-brother to Binocular, and the lightly-raced Higgy´s Ragazzo (David Bass). However all 3 have their fair share of weight, and we give slight preference to Irish challenger Pires (Paddy Brennan), a useful horse on the flat but also capable enough over hurdles. Martin´s reputation as a handicap king has taken some knocks this season, but this one seems very well handicapped and has probably been laid out for this race.

Tony Martin also has a chance in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.05 with ex-German Green Mile (Andrew Thornton), but here we prefer David Pipe´s two runners - top-weight Buena Vista (Hadden Frost), who won a similar race at the Cheltenham festival, and especially Raslan (Johnny Farrelly), a son of Lomitas, who has been out of form but is now very nicely weighted.

Best event on the flat is the listed race over 7 furlongs at 15.00. which looks very open, now that epected favourite The Cheka has been withdrawn. Lovelace (David and Adrian Nicholls) has been generally disappointing since winning in such good style at Baden-Baden 3 years ago, and possibly stable-companion Redford (Ted Durcan) can be preferred. However our main hope here is the filly Folly Bridge (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), but like Beacon Lodge (Clice Cox/ Philip Robinson) , she has been off the track for quite a while.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Beacon Lodge - Redford - Duff
2. Race: Special Boy - Mabroor - Lexi`S Prince
3. Race: Arctic Court - Extreme Impact - Micheal Flips
4. Race: Remember Now - Knight In Purple - Tatispout
5. Race: Society Rock - Bated Breath - Victoire De Lyphar
6. Race: Othermix - Red Harbour - Nafaath
7. Race: Bourne - Leader Of The Land - The Only Key

Classic trials at Lingfield

Not so long ago, the two classic trials at Lingfield- for the Oaks at 15.40 CET and for the Derby half an hour later - were regarded as the most important Epsom trials, but those days are long gone and today´s races look very substandard. Indeed, only one of the runners in the Derby trial even has an entry in the classic, and that is Marhaba Malyoon (David Slimcock/ William Buick), whose only start resulted in an easy win in a very modest affair at Bath last September. The consistent Measuring Time (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), twice a winner and 5 times runner-up in 8 starts) looks a more plausible winner, but we will take a chance on Saeed bin Suroor coming into form; so far ths season he has been totally upstaged by fellow Godolphin trainer Mahmood al Zarooni, but he can get back on the winning trail here with Borug (Frankie Dettori), a half-brother to Arc winner Marienbard.

The fillies´ race should go to Field of Miracles (John Gosden/ Buick), an easy winner at odds-on on the all-weather last time; she is up in grade here, but looks a filly with a future. Palm Pilot (Ed Dunlop/ Eddie Ahern) has won her last 3 races , all on the all-weather, and could be the main danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Flambeau - Dever Dream - Tropical Paradise
2. Race: Always The Lady - Field Of Miracles - Date With Destiny
3. Race: Measuring Time - Hurricane Higgins - Dordogne
4. Race: Passion For Gold - Sri Putra - Jet Away
5. Race: Audacious - Laashak - Sciampin
6. Race: Bowmaker - Den`S Gift - Free For All

Final day of Punchestown

The Grade One Champion 4yo Hurdle at 17.25 is the main feature of the fifth and final day of the big Punchestown meeting, and Dermot Weld´s filly Uncommited (Paul Carberry) looks by far the likeliest winner. She ran an excellent race at Cheltenham as runner-up to the smart Zarkandar, who went on to an easy win at Aintree from Kumbeshwar (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), with Grandouet (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), still going well, brought down two out. Twinlight, whose trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Ruby Walsh have had such a tremendous week, also has a chance, but Uncommitted, also very smart on the flat (beat yesterday´s group winner St. Nicholas Abbey last time out) is a confident selection.

The other big race here is the Grade 3 mares hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 16.45 with 15 runners. Mullins has two possibilities here with Morning Supreme (Walsh) and J´y Vole (David Casey), who have both been mainly running over fences this season. British hopes Veiled (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Alasi (Paul Webber/ Dominic Elsworth) are the dangers. They were first and second at Cheltenham last time, but Alasi is now much better off at the weights and can reverse the form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sizing Australia - Zest For Life - Wedger Pardy
2. Race: Montan - Uncle Tom Cobley - Darceys Dancer
3. Race: Morning Supreme - Veiled - Alasi
4. Race: Unaccompanied - Kumbeshwar - Grandouet
5. Race: Beautiful Sound - Arklow Ger - Shakervilz
6. Race: Call The Police - Doctor Deejay - Bog Warrior
7. Race: Passage Vendome - Six Stone Ned - Bleuet D`Ecajeul
8. Race: Bacher Boy - Wikaala - Sounds Of Thunder

Classic trials at Saint-Cloud

The classic trials at Saint-Cloud this afternoon look far more interesting than the equivalent races at Lingfield and several plausible classic winners will be putting their credentials on the line. The most fascinating runner is Galinova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier), a half-sister by Galileo to the great Goldikova, who runs in the Prix Cleopatre for fillies at 17.35 CET. She won well last time and would not need to be as good as her illustrious sister to score again here. The colts´ race, the Prix Greffulhe an hour later, looks a much better event. The Aga Khan´ s Vadamar (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) is apparently being aimed at the Epsom Derby, a race whch no French-trained runner has won for 35 years. A win today, when he will be assisted by his pacemaker Dildar (Thierry Jarnet), would put him firmly in the picture. Andre´ Fabre has won this 5 times in the last 6 years and now relies on Pour Moi (Mikael Barzalona), while Lustre (Yves de Nicolay/ Christophe Soumillon) and Maxios (Jonathan Pease/ Stephane Pasquier) look held on their latest form, but British challenger Questioning (John Gosden/ Peslier) definitely comes into the reckoning.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Elusive Eria - Theresmusicplaying - Dream Peace
2. Race: Mixedup - Ainebe Crocus - Polidina
3. Race: Galikova - Adventure Seeker - Pirika
4. Race: Castagna - Pauillac - Alejandro Farnesio
5. Race: Vadamar - Lustre - Dildar
6. Race: Poletto - Dolce Bambina - Mashuk
7. Race: Principe Adepto - Aloeil - Bleu Jonquille
8. Race: Almaguer - Outer Continent - Naidoo

Friday, May 06, 2011

Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown

The Rabobank Champion Hurdle at 18.30 CET at Punchestown today is the main feature of the fourth day of the meeting and, despite having only 6 runners, is a fascinating event. Willie Mullins saddles 3 runners, but obviously the high class Hurricane Fly (Ruby Walsh) is his number one after winning the "real" Champion Hurdle in such good style in March. He has won his last 5 races, all Group Ones, and is certainly the best Irish hurdler for some years. The only serious opposition comes from the two British raiders Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Bonocular (Nocy Hderson/ Tony McCoy). Menorah was a blow-par fifth in the Champion Hurdle, while Binocular, who won the race in 2010, was forced to miss Cheltenham this year because of treatment for an allergy. He was only 4th at AIntree over the wrong distance but at his best could be a live danger to Hurricane Fly. The other Grade One event here is the novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 19.05. Mullins, who is having a grea t meeting, has two more chances here, with So Young (Walsh) his main hope, but we prefer the more reliable First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell), who finished in front of him when winning at Cheltenham.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cool Warrior - Curragh Boy - The Baler
2. Race: Uncle Junior - Ballymak - Rocco`S Hall
3. Race: Wishfull Thinking - Montan - Hampshire Express
4. Race: Hurricane Fly - Binocular - Menorah
5. Race: First Lieutenant - So Young - Prima Vista
6. Race: Celtic Folklore - Kid Cassidy - Baily Green
7. Race: Whatwillwecallher - Golden Firebird - Ourbeautifuldream
8. Race: Boxer Georg - Cork All Star - Gone To Lunch

Chester May meeting: third day

Today is the third and final day of the Chester May meeting, and although there are small fields in the two group races they are still very interesting affairs. 5 line up in the Group 3 Dee stakes for 3yo´s over 10 furlong at 15.20 CET, and the in-form team of Mahmood al Zarooni and Frankie Dettori are represented by Godolphin´ s Lajooj, a maiden winner at Newbury last time and stepping up in class here. The stable should know how they stand with Maqaraat (Barry and Richard Hills), runner-up to another promising Godolphin 3yo Ocean War at Newmarket last time. The Paddyman (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore) is top-rated here after a good juvenile campaign, but further improvement is not so likely in his case, while Glen´s Diamond (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan- another team in red-hot form) has won his last 3 races but faces much tougher opposition now. The form book says different, but with the Godolphin 3yo´s in such good form, we go for Laajooj.

The Ormonde Stakes, also Group 3, for older horses over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.55 revolves round St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), whose team has already won 3 group races at this meeting. If we knew that he was back to his best, then we could confidenty predict a fourth success, as he was the best 2yo in Europe and an easy winner of the Racing Post Trophy, However his career has gone downhill from there and he was a well-beaten sixth in the 2,000 Guineas last year, starting a hot favourite, and did not run in the Derby, for which he was also favourite. He started this season with another disappointing run, so there are questions to be answered now. He is lso stepping up sharply in trip now -although that may be what he needs. Harris Tweed (Haggas/ Liam Jones) was a much-improved performer last year. winning 4 races, including here, and is an obvious danger, but we prefer Allied Powers (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), who ran well (wihtout triubling the judge) in several top racs last sason, including in Germany; any rain, which is forecast, would be in his favour.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pintura - Lucky Numbers - Lowther
2. Race: The Paddyman - Glen`S Diamond - Maqaraat
3. Race: Harris Tweed - St Nicholas Abbey - Allied Powers
4. Race: Ahtoug - Face The Problem - Jamesway
5. Race: Elmaam - Layla Jamil - Heatherbird
6. Race: Norville - Sioux Rising - Everymanforhimself
7. Race: Carter - Oriental Cavalier - Sir Boss

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Chester May meeting: second day

Aidan O´Brien and Ryan Moore teamed up to win the Cheshire Oaks here yesterday and can score again today with Await the Dawn in the Huxley Stakes (Group 3 at 15.20 CET). The 4yo is very lightly-raced but looks as he is could be up to Group One standard, and although he gives weight away here, he is a confident choice..Dream Eater (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), who rarely wins but has been placed numerous times in top company, is moving up in distance but looks the one for the forecast.

There are only 5 runners in the Group 3 Chester Vase for 3yo´s at 15.55, but the race looks very open. O´Brien and Moore have another chance here with Treasure Beach, while Nathaniel (John Gosden/ William Buick) looks dangerous, but we prefer Slumber (Barry and Michael Hills), an easy winner last time at Epsom. Barry Hills has an excellent record at this track and can also take the 3yo handicap at14.45 with Captain Bertie and the 2o maiden at 16.30 with Sea Odyssey, both partnered by son Michael.

The other 5 meetings in the U.K. today (3 over jumps, 2 on the flat) are of low quality, but we are interested to see how Peppertree Lane (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) runs in the handicap hurdle at 16.05 at Newton Abbot. This 8yo, from a good German family, was a group class stayer on the flat for Mark Johnston; over hurdles he has been much less convincing, but now runs off a very low rating.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Captain Bertie - First Class Favour - Crown Counsel
2. Race: Await The Dawn - Distant Memories - Dream Eater
3. Race: Nathaniel - Treasure Beach - Slumber
4. Race: Sea Odyssey - Gabrial - Lord Ali Mcjones
5. Race: Beachfire - Changing The Guard - Thin Red Line
6. Race: Lexi`S Hero - Steps - Robert The Painter
7. Race: Nibani - Strong Vigilance - Pekan Star

World Series Hurdle on Punchestown´s third day

Main feature of Punchestown´s third day is the World Series Hurdle over 3 miles at 18.30 CET, in which Wullie Mullins (two winners yesterday!) has a strong hand with 3 entries. Although Mikael d´Haguenet, with nephew Emmet in the saddle, has been very disappointing all recent starts- mainly over fences- and can probably be ignored, his other two runners Mourad (Katie Walsh) and Quevega (Ruby) could well take the first two places.

Mourad finished third to Big Bucks and Grands Crus, the two best 3 mile hurdlers around, at Cheltenham, which is very strong form, but Quevega is obviously the main hope. The 7yo mare has been very skilfully placed to win 7 of her 9 career starts -including 3 times here- and won this race last year. On her only start since she was a most impressive winner of the mares´ hurdle at Cheltenham and she looks a worthy favourite to continue her winning run.

The main supporting event is the La Touche Cup iver 4 mils 1 furlong at 17.50, Ireland´s most important cross-country race. Enda Bolger has a fantastic record here, having won 8 of the last 9 runnings and has entered Outlaw Pete (JT McNamara), a lucky winner of a similar event here on Tuesday, and Garde Champetre (Nina Carberry), who is clear best on ratings, and although 12 years old, and better known as a Cheltenham specialist, looks very hard to beat here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Prince Of Pirates - Son Amix - Bagber
2. Race: Tawaagg - Un Hinged - Coscorrig
3. Race: Garde Champetre - Outlaw Pete - Heads Onthe Ground
4. Race: Quevega - Mourad - Voler La Vedette
5. Race: Sir Vincent - Kerb Appeal - Alfa Beat
6. Race: Captain Chris - Realt Dubh - Saludos
7. Race: Sizing India - Vesper Bell - Malt Master

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Punchestown - Second day

The big Punchestown meeting continues today with the highest profile runner of the week in action- Kauto Star (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) who runs in the Guinness Gold Cup, a steeplechase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 18.30 CET. Kauto Star was last seen in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he finished very tired and weakened into third after holding every chance two out. This looks much easier - the first two from Cheltenham are not running - and the slightly shorter distance will also help. It will be a big suprise if he is beaten here. Front-running grey Nacarat (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Kempes (Willie Mullins/ Tony McCoy), who looks by far the best of the local hopes, can follow him home.

The other Grade One race is the Champion INH Flat Race at 19.05. There are 15 runners, but the finish is likely to concern only Steps to Freedom (Gordon Elliott/ Nina Carberry), a very easy winner at Aintree, and Waaheb (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara), unbeaten in 3 starts and particularly impressive last time. He can go right to the top for his new owner JP McManus, who acquired him last week for an undisclosed but undoubtedly huge sum. Like all Irish bumpers, this race is restricted to amateur riders, but the two mentioned here are better than most professionals.
The Grade 2 novice hurdle over 3 miles at 17.55 is another tough race with 16 runners, 4 of them trained by Willie Mullins, of whom the best should be Bishopsfurze (Ruby Walsh); however we are hoping for another British winner here as Battle Group (David Pipe/ Barry Geraghty) won in such good style at Aintree that we expect him to score again in this slightly better race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Laughing Boy - Steele`S Rock - Accordion To Paddy
2. Race: Rigidity - Empire Levant - Street Entertainer
3. Race: Bishopsfurze - Knockfierna - Battle Group
4. Race: Kauto Star - Nacarat - Kempes
5. Race: Waaheb - Steps To Freedom - Lovethehigherlaw
6. Race: Osana - Scotsirish - Carrigmartin
7. Race: Faha - Are Ya Right Chief - Alfred James

Chester Cup on first day of Chester

The Chester May meeting is one of the most popular of the entire season, and the Chester Cup, which dates back to the 16th century, its main feature. This 2 1/4 mile handicap, which will be run today at 15.55 CET, is always a hotly contested event, with 17 runners this time, including the first 3 from last year - Mamlook (David Pipe/ Richard Hughes), Tastahil (Barry and Richard Hills) and Halla Sun (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan).

Course experience is always an advantage at this very tight track and so is an inside draw. We would be very surprised of any horse drawn higher than 10 wins today, which rules out several fancied candidates, including Halla Sun, drawn 14 even though he is better off at the weights and knows this track inside out. Many of the runners have been in action over jumps, including Mamlook, one of the most versatile horses in training, and Overturn (Donald McCain/ Eddie Ahern), who finished 7th in the Champion Hurdle; this front-runner has been drawn one, and is likely to start favourite. He had a purple patch this time last year. winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle, the Galway Hurdle and the Northumberland Plate and has an obvious chance, while consistent Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) and Ebor winner Dirar (Gordon Elliott/ Wayne Lordan) are others with a good draw to consider. However our main hope is Mamlook, who battled on well a year ago.

The main supporting feature is the listed Cheshire Oaks at 15.20, and 7 of the 9 fillies running here are also entered in the Oaks at Epsom. Aidan O´Brien has booked Ryan Moore to partner the beautifully-bred Wonder of Wonders, a very easy winner at Tipperary only 5 days ago. It is unlike O´Brien to run his classic prospects twice in under a week, but she is our selection. Midnight Caller (John Gosden/ William Buick), disappointing on her final 2010 outing, but looking very promising on her first 2 runs, looks the best of the Brits.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lily`S Angel - Redair - He`S So Cool
2. Race: Wonder Of Wonders - Midnight Caller - Jaaryah
3. Race: Overturn - Red Cadeaux - Dirar
4. Race: Breathless Kiss - Falasteen - Blue Jack
5. Race: Colombian - Tanfeeth - Change The Subject
6. Race: Fadhaa - Gawaarib - Argocat

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

First day of Punchestown Festival

Of the three big spring festivals of N.H. racing, we have already had two - Cheltenham and Aintree, and the third one starts today at Punchestown near Dublin. The meeting, which continues until Saturday, is the nearest the Irish have to Cheltenham and many of the top races can be seen as a repeat of the top races from the Cotswolds meeting.This applies parzticularly to today´s main event, the Grade One Champion Chase over 2 miles at 18.30 CET (There is a late start for the first 4 days of the fixture). The first four from the Queen Mother Champion Chase cross swords again here - in the order of the Cheltenham finish Sizing Europe (Henry de Bromhead/ Timmy Murphy), Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Barry Beraghty), Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ Tony McCoy) and Golden Silver (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend). Sizing Europe made all the running at Cheltenham and won in excellent style, but this time the jockeys will not give him such an easy time up front, and we hope that the super-consistent Big Zeb can reverse the placings today. Golden Silver won this race last year - and also beat Big Zeb over this CD earlier in the year- but we feel that both he and his stable companion J´y Vole (Ruby Walsh) need softer ground than they will encounter here.

The other Grade One races are the Champion Novice Hurdle at 17.20 and the Champion Novice Chase over an extended 3 miles at 19.40. The latter event looks very open, although Quito de la Roque (Davy Russell) may be able to complete a double for Colm Murphy; he has won 5 of his last 6 starts, although none of them were on ground as fast as this. Quel Esprit (Mullins/ Walsh) has fallen the last twice, but if he stays on his feet, must be a definite danger, while Loosen my Load (de Bromhead/ Murphy) is moving up in distance. Thegreatjohnbrown (Noel Meade/ McCoy) was sold to JP McManus last week and should recoup some of the sale price, while British raider Reve de Sivola (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob) is very consistent and should also be placed.

Oilily (Shane Byrne/ Adrian Leigh) has been first or second on all 11 career starts and bids to keep up this record in the novice hurdle. German-bred Shot from the Hip (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) has been a bit disappointing but is elways to be feared, while the jockey´s brother Robbie partners Dermot Weld´s Hidden Universe, who won the bumper at this meeting a year ago.

Monday, May 02, 2011

May Bank Holiday with strong Curragh card

Today is a holiday in the U.K.and Ireland, which means lots of low-level racing. The exception to this is at the Curragh, which stages a strong card including two group races. The big attraction is So You Think (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan), who will almost certainly start at long odds-on for the Mooresbridge Stakes over 10 furlongs at 17.20 CET. He is one of the best horses ever to have run in Australia, where he won the Cox Plate twice and finished third under top weight in the Melbourne Cup. His sale before the latter race to Coolmore was greeted with outrage in Australia, where he was regarded as a national hero. He has been with O´Brien since the winter and today will be his first European race. On ratings he has 20 lbs in hand, having frightened off most of the opposition. The 4yo filly Termagant (Kevin Prendergast) gets quite a bit of weight and could follow him home, but it will be a shock if he is beaten.

The other group race is the Athasi Stakes for fillies and mares over 7 furlongs an hour earlier. Lolly for Dolly (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan) has won both her 2011 starts in good style and also took this last year. She has an obvious chance but has to concede 15 lbs to the 3yo´s, which could be beyond her. The two we like best are Look at me (Aidan O´Brien/ Colm O`Donoghue), runner-up in a Newmarket Group Three in October and the Aga Khan´s Emiyna (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh). The latter won a small race at Dundalk last time and is taking a huge leap in class, but Oxx is a trainer who rarely mistakes his geese for swans, and she is our selection.

Oxx and O´Brien can also dominate the 7 furlongs event for 3yo´s at 15.50 where they have two runners apiece. Although this is only a listed race, the field is actually better than in both of the group races. The better of these stables´ runners should be Alexander Pope (O´Brien wth son Joseph in the saddle), a late withdrawal from the 2,000 Guineas, and Zabarayad (Oxx/ Murtagh), who has not been out since July. David Wachman´s Imperial Rome (Lordan) looks a big threat, while Glor Na Mara (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) would be a near certainty on 2010 form. However he ran badly on his seasonal debut, but that may have been due to the very soft ground; today´s surface is much better.

Sunday, May 01, 2011

1,000 Guineas at Newmarket

Frankel silenced the doubters with a devastating display yesterday at Newmarket, but the Qipco 1,000 Guineas, the fillies´equivalent due to be run at 16.15 CET this afternoon, looks a very different race with 19 runners and no obvious favourite. With the bookies going 5-1 or even more the field, there are plenty of possibilities. 4 of the fillies are trained in Ireland and 3 in France. Aidan O´Brien saddles 3 of the Irish contingent, with his son Joseph riding in his first classic on the family-owned Empowering, Pat Smullen on Misty for me (probably the best of them) and Colm O´Donoghue on Together. However O´Brien´s 3yo´s do not look as strong as usual, and if there is to be an Irish winner it will most likely be the consistent Laughing Lashes (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry).

We think a French winner is more likely, and Moonlight Cloud (Freddy Head/ Davy Bonila) looks clear best of the Gallic trio. French fillies have an excellent record in this race, and while Freddie has not yet scored here, his sister Criquette has done so often enough. Moonlight Cloud was not far off the top last season and started this year with an easy win in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte.

The British entries come from all over the country, with Yorkshire-trained Barefoot Lady (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) supplemented for this after her nice win in the Nell Gwyn Stakes here over 7 furlongs. Trainer and jockey are in top form, but this filly needs to improve a few pounds to figure at this level, which is by no means impossible.

There are 7 Newmarket entries, of whom Sir Mark Prescott´s Hooray (Seb Sanders) has the highest rating after winning her last 3 races in 2010, including the Cheveley Park here. However all her races were at 6 furlongs and she is by no means certain to stay a mile. Sir Michael Stoute saddles two fillies, with stable jockey Ryan Moore on Havant, the only unbeaten runner. She looks classy enough, but is coming off a long break and almost certainly needs softer ground. Mahmood al Zarooni has his string in great form, so Godolphin´s Blue Bunting (Frankie Dettori) must be in with a chance, while John Gosden also saddles two, of whom Maqaasid (Richard Hills), who did not have a clear run when a close 3rd to Barefoot Lady here, the pick.

Looking further south, there are strong vibes coming from the stables of Barry Hills (Make a Dance /Michael Hills , who could complete a Guineas double for Khalid Abdullah), I Love Me (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and especially Memory Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes). There was no explanation for Memory´s last time flop, but she won her first 3 races in good style, and the stable optimism will have been boosted by the second place of Dubawi Gold yesterday. However she is drawn 1, which is normally a disadvantage; it did not stop Frankel, but we doubt that Memory is in that class. There are a dozen plausible winners here, but we give a very tentative vote to Moonlight Cloud.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Times Up - Fox Hunt - Sweet Origin
2. Race: Mirror Lake - Contredanse - Eleanora Duse
3. Race: Moonlight Cloud - Havant - Memory
4. Race: Barney McGrew - Prime Defender - Pastoral Player
5. Race: Tell Dad - Mizbah - Commissar
6. Race: Izzi Top - Primevere - Dorcas Lane
7. Race: Art History - Barbican - Barney Rebel

Rest of Newmarket

The rest of the Newmarket card looks very tricky for punters with some very competitive events. Fillies take pride of place and both the main supporting features are restricted to members of the so-called weaker sex. Sir Michael Stoute has won the last 4 runnings of the Group Three Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.35 CET and has another good chance with Eleanore Duse (Ryan Moore), who is highest rated here despite her penalty. Mirror Lake (Amanda Perrett/ Jim Crowley) and Contredanse (Luca Cumani/ Frankie Dettori) look the main dangers on form, but we would not be surprised to see Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Richard Hughes) run a big race at a huge price. She ran her best races in Germany last year and always seems to be underestimated by British punters.

There is little form to go on the listed Pretty Polly Stakes for 3yo fillies at 18.00 as all 8 runners are very lightly-raced so far. However Primevere (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), winner of her only start so far, and Izzi Top (John Gosden/ William Buick), an easy winner at Windsor 3 weeks ago, look the most likely winners.

The handicaps look very difficult, with 14 runners over 1 1/2 miles at 15.05 and 26 runners over 6 furlongs at 16.50. In the former event, top-weight Times Up (John Dunlop/ Hughes) and Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), both of whom have a good course record, are our two against the field. In the sprint we also fancy the top-weight Prime Defender (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston), who has been running in better company and is dropping in grade here. We like Docofthebay (Ian Mongan) best of the 4 David Nicholls runners, even though he has never run over such a short distance before, while Lui Rei (Robert Cowell/ Dettori), Pastoral Player (Hughie Morrison/ Drowne) and last year´s winner Hawkeyethenoo(JIm Goldie/ William Buick) must also be considered.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Times Up - Fox Hunt - Sweet Origin
2. Race: Mirror Lake - Contredanse - Eleanora Duse
3. Race: Moonlight Cloud - Havant - Memory
4. Race: Barney McGrew - Prime Defender - Pastoral Player
5. Race: Tell Dad - Mizbah - Commissar
6. Race: Izzi Top - Primevere - Dorcas Lane
7. Race: Art History - Barbican - Barney Rebel