York Dante meeting: first day

the Dante meeting starts today with a high class card, with the Musidora Stakes for 3yo fillies at 15.30 CET as the main event. This Oaks trial has only 5 runners but is still quite problematic. Barefoot Lady (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) is the form choice here, having finished 5th in the 1,000 Guineas, but she has never run beyond a mile. Trainer and jockey, who both have an excellent record at this track, are convinced that she will get the extra distance, but is not certain, and we prefer Arizona Jewel, who can kick off a highly successful week for owner Khalid Abdullah, trainer Henry Cecil and jockey Tom Queally.

She is certainly bred to stay, her dam having won the Lancashire Oaks, but she is moving up sharply in grade after winning a Sandown maiden last time. However she created a very strong impression that day and is expected to go on to much better things. Aidan O´Brien, whose stable has really hit form, sends over Amazing Beauty (Ryan Moore) from Ireland; both her starts so far were at the all-weather track at Dundalk, which is certainly not the usual preparation for a classic hopeful. O´Brien sent 4 horses to last week´s Chester meeting and, with Moore in the saddle, they all won easily, so his runners cannot be lightly dismissed. Joviality (John Gosden/ William Buick) represents another stable in good form, but she is also stepping up on trip and is also still a maiden. If there is an Oaks winner in this field, it can only in our opinion be Arizona Jewel, so we hope she wins convincingly today.

The other big race here is the Group Two Duke of York Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.00 which, with 14 runners, looks very tricky, and question marks over several of the runners. Prime Defender (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston) won this last year, but he is extremely inconsistent, not to say unreliable. He finished well behind Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) a month ago, and the latter will be one of the favourites today; he is a top handicapper over this trip, but we are not sure that he is up to Group Two standard. Dalghar (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Delegator (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) both have smart form at a mile but are unproven at this trip.

They are certainly classy enough - Delegator even finished runner-up to Sea the Stars in the 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago, while Dalghar had good form when trained in France for the Aga Khan and is a half-brother to the top class 12 furlongs performers Dalakhani and Daylami. No surprise then if either of this pair were to win, while Markab (Henry Candy/ Pat Cosgrave) and Regal Parade (David and Adrian Nicholls) are the two latest winners of the Group One Haydock sprint over this trip. with Markab now lumbered with a 7 lbs penalty, we regard Regal Parade as the safest option here, but the only 3yo in the field Ladies are Forever (Geoff Oldroyd/ Tom Eaves) is another danger off her light weight.

The other races are all very competitive, but it is often the best policy at York to follow Richard Fahey, who has several good possibilities today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Taqleed - Pekan Star - Pleasant Day
2. Race: Shropshire - Baptist - Chiswick Bey
3. Race: Arizona Jewel - Joviality - Amazing Beauty
4. Race: Markab - Regal Parade - Dalghar
5. Race: Satwa Moon - Becausewecan - Lovers Causeway
6. Race: Monnoyer - Ponty Acclaim - Hamza
7. Race: Sud Pacifique - Rain Mac - Discovery Bay