Saturday, May 21, 2011

Overdose at Haydock!

the most interesting runner at today´s 7 meetings is the Hungarian sprinter Overdose (Josef Roszival/ Andreas Suborics), who goes for the Group Two Temple Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET at Haydock Park. This is the first real test for the Budapest Bullet since his embarrassing flop at Baden-Baden last August. His easy win at Hoppegarten against poor opposition last month showed that he is fit and well and has got over that traumatic experience, but the form itself amounts to very little. He is meeting opponents here of a far differmt calibre, including two 2010 Group One winners - the penalised Markab (Henry Candy/ Pat Cosgrave) and Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Kagn Latham)- 100/1 winner of the Nunthorpe, as well as last years winner Kingsgate Native (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore). The latter has not won since last year´s race, but seems to do best after a break, although Stoute´s runners generally need their first run, However he looks the most serious opponent. Others to consider are Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves), who made all the running to win the Palace House at Newmarket, with Sole Power a close third, and Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Jim Crowley)- a close 4th at Longchamp last Sunday- further back. Rose Blossom (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) missed the break last time, but with her stable in great form, cannot be dismissed. Overdose is a freak and could easily win this if anywhere near his best 2008 form, but the press ballyhoo means that he is likely to start at around 2-1, which to us seems poor value given the open questions and on ground which will be on the fast side, another problem.
The main supporting feature at Haydock is the listed event over 6 furlongs for 3+ fillies at 16.30. With a huge field, this is as tricky as any handicap, but our three against the field are Elshabakiya (Clive Brittain/ Philip Robinson) and Show Rainbow (Mick Channon/ Chris Catlin), who both ran in the Nell Gwyn and 1,000 Guineas and are now dropping in class and distance, and Irish challenger Tweedy (Eddie Lynam/ Keagan Latham) whose domestic form does not read at all badly.
The handicaps look very difficult, but note should be made of Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), who runs in the opening 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles. Owned by footballer Michael Owen, this one ran on very strongly when winning over this trip at Chester and can defy an 8 lbs rise in the weights. He holds an entry in the Germán Derby and must win this if he is to be seriously considered for Hamburg.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cry Fury - Reflect - Wayward Glance
2. Race: Polar Kite - Sikeeb - Crown Counsel
3. Race: Overdose - Kingsgate Native - Markab
4. Race: Aneedah - Golden Destiny - Elshabakiya
5. Race: Sutton Veny - Flowing Cape - Tasmeem
6. Race: Decent Fella - My Gacho - April Fool
7. Race: Frontline Girl - Bolodenka - Dolphin Rock