Sunday, May 01, 2011

Rest of Newmarket

The rest of the Newmarket card looks very tricky for punters with some very competitive events. Fillies take pride of place and both the main supporting features are restricted to members of the so-called weaker sex. Sir Michael Stoute has won the last 4 runnings of the Group Three Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.35 CET and has another good chance with Eleanore Duse (Ryan Moore), who is highest rated here despite her penalty. Mirror Lake (Amanda Perrett/ Jim Crowley) and Contredanse (Luca Cumani/ Frankie Dettori) look the main dangers on form, but we would not be surprised to see Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Richard Hughes) run a big race at a huge price. She ran her best races in Germany last year and always seems to be underestimated by British punters.

There is little form to go on the listed Pretty Polly Stakes for 3yo fillies at 18.00 as all 8 runners are very lightly-raced so far. However Primevere (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), winner of her only start so far, and Izzi Top (John Gosden/ William Buick), an easy winner at Windsor 3 weeks ago, look the most likely winners.

The handicaps look very difficult, with 14 runners over 1 1/2 miles at 15.05 and 26 runners over 6 furlongs at 16.50. In the former event, top-weight Times Up (John Dunlop/ Hughes) and Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), both of whom have a good course record, are our two against the field. In the sprint we also fancy the top-weight Prime Defender (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston), who has been running in better company and is dropping in grade here. We like Docofthebay (Ian Mongan) best of the 4 David Nicholls runners, even though he has never run over such a short distance before, while Lui Rei (Robert Cowell/ Dettori), Pastoral Player (Hughie Morrison/ Drowne) and last year´s winner Hawkeyethenoo(JIm Goldie/ William Buick) must also be considered.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Times Up - Fox Hunt - Sweet Origin
2. Race: Mirror Lake - Contredanse - Eleanora Duse
3. Race: Moonlight Cloud - Havant - Memory
4. Race: Barney McGrew - Prime Defender - Pastoral Player
5. Race: Tell Dad - Mizbah - Commissar
6. Race: Izzi Top - Primevere - Dorcas Lane
7. Race: Art History - Barbican - Barney Rebel