Frankel a certainty ?

The 203rd running of the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas for 3yo´s over a mile at 16.10 CET this afternoon at Newmarket is the first major classic of the European season. The rc revolves around Frankel (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), unbeaten in 5 starts and the hottest favourite since Nijinsky 40 years ago. On official ratings he has plenty in hand and in theory should win this easily, but there are still some nagging doubts. His headstrong style of running, spectacular though it is, is not ideal for this kind of race, even though he has been equipped with a pacemaker (Barry and Michael Hills), also owned by Khalid Abdullah. The firm ground is another unknown factor (though possibly better for him than very soft), and the no. 1 draw is certainly a problem. In addition, favourites have very poor record in this race ? only one has won in the last 20 years. He is by far the likeliest winner, but we would not like to back him at odds around 2-1on.

In our view there are only 6 plausible alternatives in the field of 13. The two Irish challengers Pathfork (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry), unbeaten in 3 starts, and Roderic O´Connor (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) obviously come into this category, although it is possible that the latter may need cut in the ground. Native Khan (Ed Dunlop/ Olivier Peslier) loves the ground and won the Craven Stakes here, usually a good guide, although very few horses have won both these events in recent times. Fury (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) won both his starts last season and is probably much better than his official rating.

And then there are the two Godolphin runners ? Casamento (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) and Saamidd (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikal Barzalona). Saamidd ran badly here in the Dewhurst (won easily by Frankel) but had looked pretty smart beforehand. However his trainer has not yet won a race in Europe this season, while Al Zarooni has a strike rate of 30%. Casamento was trained in Ireland last season, and finished only a head behind Pathfork in their top 2yo race. However he is double the price of that rival and looks a good each-way bet at these prices.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Proponent - Green Destiny - Kay Gee Be
2. Race: Laaheb - Dandino - Campanologist
3. Race: Frankel - Pathfork - Roderic O`Connor
4. Race: Astrophysical Jet - Sole Power - Borderlescott
5. Race: Commended - Forjatt - Seal Rock
6. Race: Cai Shen - Namibian - Ocean War
7. Race: Sikeeb - Crown Counsel - Darej