Victoria Cup at Ascot

The Victoria Cup, a handicap over the straight 7 furlongs at 16.25 CET is the big betting race at Ascot today and is always one of the hottest handicaps of the year. With 29 runners, the field is likely to split into 2 or even 3 groups, and unless we know where the ground is fastest it is very risky making a bet. The previous race, over the straight mile, might give some clues, but has only 14 runners.

However we might get some hint from the performance of the two likely favourites Entitled (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), drawn on the outside, and Frances Stuart (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) drawn near the inside rail.

Ante-post favourite Horseradish (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) is drawn 1 in the Victoria Cup, which might be a huge advantage. He is tremendously consistent and has won 4 of his last 6 starts, and has in all probability not finished winning yet. Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Gary Bartley) was a good 4th of 24 in a hot Newmarket haandicap week ago, but he seems best at 6 furlongs, and we think the main danger could be Brae Hill, from the in-form stable of Richard Fahey with the smart claimer Lee Topliss in the saddle. He is drawn in the middle, giving his jockey more options, though he will have to make a quick decision. He does not have a good strike rate, and 2 of his 3 wins have come at Chester, a much different track, but he has been running well in these big handicaps and we feel he has a good each-way chance here.

The classiest race at Ascot (though not nearly as valuable) is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 15.20. Alainmaar (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills) has not run since last May because of an injury, but if he is anywhere near peak form whould win this. He has won 4 of his 5 starts - all over 10 furlongs- but the extra quarter-mile should not be a problem, and he looks like a group winner in the making. Sir Michael Stoute has not hit top form yet, but his Verdant (Ryan Moore), a disappointing favourite at Newbury last time, looks the main danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alainmaar - Verdant - Shamali
2. Race: Entitled - Frances Stuart - Maid In Heaven
3. Race: Horseradish - Hawkeyethenoo - Shamandar
4. Race: North Star Boy - Bayleyf - Charles The Great
5. Race: Rock A Doodle Doo - Udabaa - Blissful Moment
6. Race: Chiefdom Prince - Crown Choice - Kuanyao