Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

the Group One Lockinge Stakes at 16.45 CET is the best race of the day and is also the best early season race for top milers. Richard Hannon is very strong in this department and won it last year with Paco Boy, who had the bad luck to come up against Goldikova several times but was clearly the second best miler in Europe; he is now at stud but Hannon holds a strong hand today with Canford Cliffs (Richard Hughes) and Dick Turpin (Ryan Moore). Hannon was reportedly reluctant to race this pair against each other so early on the year, but both owners wanted to run. They have run against each other before, with the score standing 2-2, and there is clearly little between them, but Canford Cliffs probably has a slight edge, even though Dick Turpin has already won in good style this year.

Red Jazz (Barry and Michael Hills) and Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) finished 3rd and 4th in the Godolphin Mile at Meydan in March and could also get involved, while Twice Over is an interesting runner for the Khalid Abdullah/ Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally team. He was 3rd here in 2009, but all his runs since have been over 10 furlongs and include many top level successes. On ratings he has a good chance, but we do not believe he will be effective at this trip against the specialists. Worthadd (Vittorio Caruso/ Mirco Demuro) is the best 4yo in Italy, and won the local 2,000 Guineas and Derby last year. His chance is difficult to assess, but Italian form is usually not nearly as strong as British form.

Canford Cliffs is the likeliest winner, but he has not run since winning the Sussex Stakes (Premio Loco third) in July and looks as if he will start a very warm favourite. He does not in our view represent any value and a small each-way bet on Premio Loco (who we remember well from his two German wins in 2009) could be a better bet.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: No Heretic - Fiorente - Searing Heat
2. Race: Polly`S Mark - Drunken Sailor - Ship`S Biscuit
3. Race: Mac`S Power - Addictive Dream - Spanish Bounty
4. Race: Dominant - Labarinto - Fulgur
5. Race: Canford Cliffs - Dick Turpin - Twice Over
6. Race: Sure Route - Manaaber - Flashbang
7. Race: Skilful - Rougette - Shahzan
8. Race: Midsummer Sun - Mijhaar - Antarctic