Fairyhouse Easter meeting starts today

The Fairyhouse Easter meeting, which starts today, is one of two big Irish N.H. meetings this month (Punchestown 3 weeks later is the other) which mark the climax of the Irish jumping season. Despite the proximity of Cheltenham and Aintree, the meeting has some very strong fields and the two Grade One races today, the mares novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 15.25 CET and the novice chase over the same trip at 17.30, are both well up to standard even if they have only runners apiece.

The star of the show could be Annie Power (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) in the former event. Unbeaten in 6 starts, she is moving up in grade here but looks a mare of huge potential. She is by Shirocco out of a mare that ran in Germany and is another fine advertisement for German breeding. Mullins has 2 more runners here, although Zuzka (Katie Walsh) looks held by stable companion Grens melody (David Casey), but the main danger is probably Missunited (M Winters/ Barry Geraghty), a very versatile mare who has won 8 of her 15 starts and was also runner-up in the Irish Cesarewitch on the flat.

Mullins and Walsh have another good chance in the novice chase with Mikael d´Haguenet, and he could certainly win here, but he has been let down too often by his dodgy jumping to be a reliable betting proposition. Jessica Harrington has had a quiet season by her own high standards, but can take this with Oscars Well (Robbie Power), formerly a very smart hurdler who has not quite lived up to expectations over fences. However the trainer seems very confident, so we will give him a chance, although the other 4 runners all have smart form to their credit as well.

Should Annie Power win well, that woulod be an obvjuous pointer to the chances of Defy Logic (Paul Nolan/ Tony McCoy), runner-up to her at Naas last time, in the Gtrade Two novoce hurdle at 15.55. However this is another open race with several possibilities, includi8ng Prode of the Parosh (Mullins/ EWalsdh) and Sizing Gold (Hentry de BVromhead/ Andrew Lynch), neoither of whom has ever finished out of the first two, as well as extremely promising Bright New Dawn (Dessie Hughes/ Davy Russell). The question mark here is the very lightly-raced Some Tikket (Dermot Weld/ Barry Geraghty), who won his only race over hurdles, a Navan maiden at the beginning of the month, in most impressive style. This is a huge jump in class, but we are great fans of this trainer and believe that he is capable of pulling this off.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Benemeade - Young Finnegan - Kingclip
2. Race: Zuzka - Missunited - Glens Melody
3. Race: Defy Logic - Bright New Dawn - Some Tikket
4. Race: The Paparrazi Kid - Balnaslow - Backinthere
5. Race: Raise Hell - Sammy Black - Speed Dial
6. Race: Mount Benbulben - Oscars Well - Mikael D`Haguenet
7. Race: Festive Felon - Carriganog - Sizing Silver

Rest of Meydan

The rest of the Meydan card is also top class with some very competitive fields, and fancied runners from the U.K., Ireland, France, South Africa and Japan taking on the might of Godolphin, who as usual have several runners in most races.

A Japanese victory seems very likely in the Sheema Classic over 1 1/2 miles on turf at 18.20, in which Gentildonna (Y Ikee/ Y Iwata) looks certain to start a hot favourite. She has won her last 5 races, including the Japanese gillies triple crown and the Japan Cup, in which she just defeated Arc runner-up Orfevre, which is clearly the best form in the race. St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), just touched off in this race last year by Cirrus des Aigles, looks the obvious danger, although we are of course hoping for a good run from German candidate Girolamo (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke). He won the Preis von Europa last time, but will need to show considerable improvement to figure in this much hotter company.

Two German runners with, in our view , a slightly better chance are Zazou (Waldemar Hickst/ Khasmat Ulabuev) in the Godolphin mile at 14.10 and Seismos (Andreas Wöhler/ Mirco Demuro) in the Gold Cup over 2 miles at 14.45. Zazou has been running over longer distances, but we think a strongly-run mile could suit him and the opposition is certainly not as strong as in the World Cup, in which he finished 5th last year. Red Jazz (Charlie Hills/ Ryan Moore), twice third in this race, and the unbeaten Soft Falling Rain (Mike de Kock/ Paul Hanagan) are the main dangers. The latter has done nothing wrong and took the UAE 2000 Guineas here, but he is the youngest horse in the field and faces easily his toughest task yet.

Seismos on the other hand is moving up in trip and has never so far5 run beyond 1 172 miles. However his shrewd trainer knows what he is doing and we think he could possibly pull off a surprise here. Saddlers Rock (John Oxx( Declan McDonogh) and Cavalryman (bin Suroor/ de Sousa) are proven stayers who sould be involved, but the one to beat is surely the lightly-raced Imperial Monarch (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), also moving up in trip, but as the winner of the Grand Prix de Paris a high class performer; he has been heavily backed this week with British bookmakers and will be a strong favourite.

Another possible Irish winner is Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh) in the Al Quoz Sprint over 5 furlongs at 16.05. In theory he cannot beat Shea Shea (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon), who beat him by 2 1/2 lengths in the trial here 3 weeks ago, wiith several of these runners further back, but the South African had the run of the race then and we think Sole Power, also just beaten here last year, is a rock solid each-way bet.

It is most unlikely that Godolphin will not have some winners today, and their best chance seems to be Mental (Al Zarooni/ Barzalona) in the 6 furlongs Golden Shaheen at 16.45. The ex-Australian horse looked very smart when winning easily on his sole Dubai start and should be strong enough to hold off last year´s winner Krypton Factor (Fawzi Nass/ Kieron Fallon) and Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Buick).

The Duty free at 17.40 is tzhe trickiest trace of the card and there are a dozen possibler winners. Little Mike (Dale Romansd/ Gary Stevens>) won the Breeders Cup Turfg but is posobly even better suited by this shorter distance and may be able to make all the running, but German-owned and French-trained Giofra (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Maxime Guyon) and Godolphin´s Sajjhaa (bin Suroor/ de Sousa) are two more fillies that could make this a great meeting for the fairer sex.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tm Fred Texas - Areem - Nieshan
2. Race: Soft Falling Rain - Penitent - Master Of Hounds
3. Race: Imperial Monarch - Saddler`S Rock - Cavalryman
4. Race: Secret Number - Law Enforcement - Lines Of Battle
5. Race: Shea Shea - Eagle Regiment - Sole Power
6. Race: Mental - Gordon Lord Byron - Trinniberg
7. Race: Trade Storm - Ocean Park - Little Mike
8. Race: Gentildonna - St Nicholas Abbey - Shareta
9. Race: Hunter`S Light - Royal Delta - Animal Kingdom

Dubai World Cup at Meydan

There is high class racing all over the world today, but pride of place obviously goes to the big meeting at Meydan and in particular the Dubai Gold Cup, with 10 million $ in prize-money the world´s richest race, which is run at 19.05 CET on tapeta. 13 line up, including the first 3 from last year- Monterosso (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona), stable companion Capponi (Ahmed Ajtebi) and Planteur (Marco Botti/ Ryan Moore), however we much prefer Royal Delta (Bill Mott/ Mike Smith), the only filly in the field, who was badly hampered last year but has top class form in the USA to her credit. Americans have a great record here and we would not be in the least surprised to see them take the first 3 places as Animal Kingdom (Graham Motion/ Joel Rosario) and Dullahan (Dale Romans/ Gary Stevens) also hold strong claims.

From the German point of view it would be good tzon see Animal Kingdpom score, as the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner is out of a German dam; even better would be a win for Kassiano (Saeed bin Suroor/ William Buick), bred by Gestüt Röttgen and trained in Germany last year. He has been in great form here, but looks held by his stable companion Hunter´s Light (Silvestre de Sousa), who beat him easily enough over this CD last time and looks the best of the 5 Godolphin runners.

This is an extremely strong field, certainly better than last year, but we expect an American victory, although which of their 3 runners is hard to say. Bets will be settled at the odds of British bookmakers, who make Hunter´s Light favourite at around 4-1, but we do not think is justified. There has been much talk of the effect of the draw, with Kassiamo and Animal Kingdom drawn out wide, but we do not think this is all-important, although possibly a middle draw is best. Certainly the inside rail is not the place to be, so we go with Royal Delta, drawn 8.

Update: Godolphin´s Monterosso winner of the 2012 Dubai World Cup, is a non-runner for today´s race. His jockey Mikael Barzalona will now switch to African Story.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tm Fred Texas - Areem - Nieshan
2. Race: Soft Falling Rain - Penitent - Master Of Hounds
3. Race: Imperial Monarch - Saddler`S Rock - Cavalryman
4. Race: Secret Number - Law Enforcement - Lines Of Battle
5. Race: Shea Shea - Eagle Regiment - Sole Power
6. Race: Mental - Gordon Lord Byron - Trinniberg
7. Race: Trade Storm - Ocean Park - Little Mike
8. Race: Gentildonna - St Nicholas Abbey - Shareta
9. Race: Hunter`S Light - Royal Delta - Animal Kingdom

Ludlow on, inspection at Ffos Las

there were expected to be no problems at Ffos Las today, but after a heavy overnight frost, the track must pass an inspection later. Should racing go ahead, Tony McCoy should certainly win the opening maiden hurdle on Rebecca Curtis´ Bally Rone at 14.50 CET, and could also take the bumper at 17.30 with the same trainer´s In the Gate; however well-bred debutant Thomas Junior (David Pipe/ Micky Ennis) could be a danger here, as he is owned by racecourse boss Dai Walters. Earlier Pipe and McCoy team up with Bamboleo at 15.20 who has a good chance, although we also like bottom-weight William Hogarth here. We would love to see 15yo Victory Gunner (Richard Lee/ Michael Nolan) follow up last week´s Chepstow win under a penalty at 16.25 and this does not look at all impossible.
Jumping at Ludlow goes ahead, and our best bet here is German-bred Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan=) in the handicap hurdle at 17.40. The half-brither to Samum took a long time to get acclimatised to British racing bur came good 17 days ago with an easy win at Taunton and can score again under 9 lbs extra; Pearls Legend (John Spearing/ Nico de Boinville), a CD winner a month ago looks the main danger, as our old friend Aviso (David Evans/ Denis O´Regan)- winner of the German 2,000 Guineas six years ago- appears to have lost form.
Southwell stages an addditional jumpers bumpers meeting today to make up for all the fixtures lost to the weather recently. form does not always work out as expected in these races, but another German-bred Dawn Commander (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) must go close in the race at 15.55. The same team run Ostland at 16.30, who has been off the track for almost a year; he has won 5 times over jumps in the U.K. but in 2008 finished runner-up in the German Derby and a repetition of that form would make him hard to beat here.
There is also flat racing on the all-weather at Wolverhampton this afternoon and this evening in Dundalk in Ireland; there is also Irish N.H. racing at Clonmel, so that we have 6 meetings today (assuming Ffos Las goes ahead). There will however be no racing tomorrow, Good Friday, in the U.K. and Ireland.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Molaise Lad - Lauberhorn - Descaro
2. Race: What A Warrior - Elenika - Lucaindubai
3. Race: Midnight Appeal - Dunlough Bay - Susquehanna River
4. Race: Merrion Square - Henry Hook - Niceonefrankie
5. Race: Seventh Sky - Leviathan - Alwaystheoptimist
6. Race: Bravo Bravo - Market Option - Grimley Girl
7. Race: Rumbury Grey - The General Lee - Surenaga

4 poor meetings today

No high class racing can be expected in the run-up to Easter, and today´s meetings- over jumps at Wetherby and 3 all-weather cards, are all very low grade. Tony McCoy is in action at Wetherby, and although Upswing is a non-runner at 16.55 CET, he can still go home with a couple of winners. Lucinda Russell´s Eyre Apparent at 15.50 and Warren Greatrex´ Westward Point, half an hour later, both won well enough last time out to suggest that they can score again, although the latter faces strong opposition from Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook) and Halley (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), both smart chasers who are also good enough over hurdles to win in this grade. The handicap chase at 17.30 looks quite open, but Categorical (Keith and James Reveley) came back to form last week with an easy win at Southwell and can defy a 7 lbs penalty.

Two likely Newmarket winners at Lingfield are Bright Strike (John Gosden/ William Buick) at 17.40 and Kent Ragstone (William Haggas/ Shane Kelly) at 18.15, but both will probably start at very cramped odds. Elusive Hawk (David Evans/ RJ Fitzpatrick) was one of the unluckiest losers of the year when carried wide by a loose horse at Lingfield on Monday. He makes a quick return to run in the 6 furlongs handicap at Southwell at 17.20, but we shall take a each-way chance here on Spitfire (John Jenkins/ Freddie Tylicki), who won nicely over this CD in November; he has only run once since but seems to go best fresh. At Wolverhampton this evening, we hope that German-bred All the Wings (Sam Lycett/ Robert Tart), penalised 6 lbs for an easy win over this CD last week, can follow up in the 1 1 /2 mile handicap at 20.50.

Wetherby - betting forecast:
1. Race: Ueueteotl - Firth Of The Clyde - Potomac
2. Race: Eyre Apparent - Blazing Bull - Flying Squad
3. Race: Halley - Neptune Equester - Westward Point
4. Race: Rocking Blues - Turbo Du Ranch - Majaales
5. Race: Categorical - Bertie Milan - Whats Up Woody
6. Race: Silentplan - Bobs Lady Tamure - Pleasure Island

3 poor meetings today

3 low level meetings today, but at least we have some racing on turf again- over jumps at Fontwell. Fontwell is a tricky track and it is a good idea to follow course specialists here. One obvious example is Wild Ground (Kevin Bishop/ James Best who runs in the stayers handicap chase at 16.40 CET. She has won 3 times over this CD since December and we would love to see the old girl win again. However she is on her highest ever mark at the age of 12, so it is not easy. Her stable companion Peut Etre Sivolas (Hadden Frost) has only run once (and was pulled up) in the last 2 years, but is much better handicapped and also goes well here, as does Princely Hero (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon), who is 9 lbs better off with the mare for less than 4 lengths and is therefore our selection. Otherwise we expect Venetia Williams and her stable jockey Aidan Coleman to land a short-priced double here with Sustainability at 15.40 and Jupiter Rex, who is going for a quick six-timer half an hour la ter and appears equally at home over sticks and over fences.
It is difficult to enthuse about the 2 all-weather meetings, although there are possibly some interesting newcomers in the 10 furlongs maiden at 15.50 at Lingfield, among them Warrigal (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore), whose dam is out of the top German mare Wurftaube. Thomas Brown and Robert Tart are the two big apprentice discoveries of the winter and we expect them both to score here, on Andrew Balding´s Desert Donkey at 16.50 and Brendan Powell´s Wordiness an hour later respectively.
At Southwell, Thorpe Bay (Mike Appleby/ Darren Egan), twice beaten in a photo-finish here within the last week, can make it third time lucky at 16.30. A course specialist here who could run well at a big price is Calculating (Mark Usher/ Neil Callan) at 18.00; he has not won for almost 2 years but is now on a very seductive rating as a result.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Jer - Westaway - Peterbrown
2. Race: One For The Boss - Hightown - Cool Cascade
3. Race: Jupiter Rex - Fortification - Master Cardor Visa
4. Race: Wild Ground - Bounds And Leaps - Cerium
5. Race: Just Spot - Iron Butterfly - Mistral Reine
6. Race: Chestnut Ben - Lady Willa - Join The Navy
7. Race: Morebutwhen - Cannon Fodder - Sergeant Mattie

Lingfield today

with both turf meetings abandoned (and more abandonments quite possible in the next few days) Lingfield is the only track racing today. With small fields (4 races with six runners ort less) and low class racing, this card is not at all punter friendly and, to be honest, we would rather keep our powder dry and wait for the Dubai World Cup on Saturday or next week´s Grand National meeting.

The best betting race is the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 CET, where 4 of the 8 runners are last-time-out winners, including top-weight Elusive Hawk, who scored by 5 lengths at Wolvethampton a week ago; however he seems best at 6 furlongs, and we prefer West Leake (Paul Burgoyne/ Liam Keniry), who has a good CD record and goes well for this jockey. It could be a good day for the trainer, who has another winning chance with Irene Kennet (Hayley Turner) at 17.40; she has been in great form this year. although all her recent form has been at Kempton. Another horse enjoying a fruitful 2013 is Mubtadi (Ismail Mohammed/ Thomas Brown), unbeaten in 3 starts this year and all with this promising appentice in the saddle. He is however stepping up in distance at 18.10, and we therefore prefer Conducting (Gay Kelleway/ Neil Callan), already twice a winner over this CD this year.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Prince Of Burma - Alhaban - Mister Green
2. Race: Marmot Bay - Hidden Link - Mudaawem
3. Race: Elusive Hawk - West Leake - Valdaw
4. Race: Amethyst Dawn - Red Larkspur - Catalinas Diamond
5. Race: Limit Up - Uganda Glory - Clearing
6. Race: Mount Abora - Cozy Tiger - Irene Kennet
7. Race: Mubtadi - Chrissycross - Bernisdale

They´re off in Ireland

The Irish turf flat season starts today with the traditional Curragh card featuring the Irish Lincolnshire, a mile handicap at 17.30 CET with 20 runners. With virtually no recent form and very heavy gro9und after the bad winter, we do not recommend betting much here. Most of the top Irish trainers have runners at the meeting, including Aidan O´Brien, Dermot Weld and Jim Bolger. Tommy Stack is a trainer who usually gets off to a quick start and his runners must be considered. The best horses on view will however not be running in races - Aidan O´Brien has brought a group of his star performers, including Derby winner Camelot and several leading classic hopes for 2013, to work on the track after racing. The classiest race is the Group Three Park Express Stakes for fillies over a mile at 16.30 with only 5 runners. Yellow Rosebud (Weld/ Pat Smullern) has top weight here, but could be good enough; an indication could possibly be provided by her full sister Late Rosebud , who runs in the maiden at 15,.30 for the same trainer and jockey.

Paul Nicholls can usually be relied on to saddle a winner at his local track at Wincanton, and Sidney Melbourne (Ryan Mahon) could win the conditioonal jockeys handicap hurdle here 16.55; a winner on the flat, he has been runner-up on all his 3 starts over sticks and runs in his first handicap here. Old Tricks (Colin Tizzard/ Brendan Powell), who runs his best races here, could be the main danger. The heavy going will not be to the taste of all the runners today and we are a bit dubious about hat-trick-chasing Whispering Jack (Kieren Burke/ Gavin Sheehan) in the handicap chase at 17.25; we prefer the lightly-raced Good Order (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) as well as Shuil Royale (David Arbuthnot/ Daryl Jacpb), while Quinte du Chatelet (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) would be a certainty on his old form, but seems to have become somewhat unreliable. The unbeaten One Conemara (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) looks certain to start at long odds-on in the novice hurdle at 17.55, but lo oks almost unbeatable in this company.

Best race at Lingfield is the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.40. Top-weight Mia´s Boy (Chris Dwyer/ Robert Tart) ran disappointingly last week, but is normally very consistent and is handicapped to get the better of Aquilonius (Stuart Williams/ Jamie Spencer) this time. He has the winter´s hot apprentice in the saddle and is our selection.

Curragh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tom Dooley - Topman Dandy - My Sapphire
2. Race: Snakes And Ladders - So Devoted - Peggy`s Leg
3. Race: Battleroftheboyne - Bird`s Eye View - Elusive Prince
4. Race: Yellow Rosebud - Starbright - Rehn`s Nest
5. Race: Muaanid - Wholelotofrosie - Smoker
6. Race: Hujaylea - Custom Cut - Ansaab
7. Race: Piet Mondrian - Alpinist - Shutter Island

3 meetings today

The Irish N.H. meeting at Downpatrick has been abandoned, but there are expected to be no problems with the other 3 meeetings, including the first day of the Irish flat season at the Curragh. The ground will be heavy, as it also is at the British jumps meeting at Wincanton. However weather woes are not yet over and both Monday´s N.H. meetings in the U.K. - Taunton and Towcester- have been cancelled.

Doncaster abandoned, Newbury inspection

The forecast snow has finally arrived and Doncaster´s card today, featuring the Lincoln handicap, the first big race of the turf season, has been abandoned. The whole card will now be repeated next Saturday. The only meetings now left are a good N.H. card at Newbury, where an inspection is to held later, and an emergency all-weather fixture at Southwell. The other N.H. meetings for today, Bangor, Kelso, Stratford and Gowran Park were already called off yesterday.

Newbury and Sedgefield

while waiting to hear whether Doncaster goes ahead or not, we shall have a quick look at today´s two N.H. meetings. Newbury has easily the better card, with runners from many of the leading stables. The powerful Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob combination has just one runner, Pay the King, and he should certainly win the maiden hurdle at 15.10 CET. David Pipe has sevetraöl runners here, and we would not be surprised to see Prime Location take the handicap hurdle at 16.15 (German-bred Promised Wings looks the danger here) and the very promising Shotavodka win at 17.25; Both have top weight and will be ridden by Tom Scudamore. The Monsun gelding Iolith, who was listed class on the flat and showed great talent over hurdles is an interesting runner in the latter event, but has been off the track for almost 2 years, so caution is advised.
The best race at Sedgefield is the novices handicap hurdle at 17.00, the track´s most valuable race of the season, where we exoect the two top-weights Walkabout Creek (Steve Gollings/ James Revely) and Deise Dynamo (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) to dominate. We have slight preference for the former, who scored in good style over this CD at the beginning of the month. The handicap chase over 3 miles 3 furlongs at 17.35 is another interesting event and most of the runners have met befpre. Overyou (Chris Grant/ Diarmuid O´Regan) won two days ago at Haydock, but we are dubious about the value of the form - only 2 finished- and two tough staying races on this ground in 3 days does in any case not sound such a great idea. He is held on earlier form by Soiudain() Steve Gollings/ Patrick Bohan), who in turn is held by Heez a Steel (George Charlton/ Lucy Alexander), so we make the last-named our selection.

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Pay The King - Lower Hope Dandy - Deep Trouble
2. Race: Double Dash - Midnight Tuesday - Frontier Spirit
3. Race: Prime Location - Koultas King - Promised Wings
4. Race: Bennys Mist - Red Rouble - African Broadway
5. Race: Kaylif Aramis - Shotavodka - Chesil Beach Boy
6. Race: Ravethebrave - Trouble Digger - Nicto De Beauchene
7. Race: Wily Fox - Union Du Chenet - Tuscan Gold

Chepstow and Cork

The going will be heavy at Chepstow and our advice is to stick with CD specialists with proven form on the ground. Mark the Book (Barry Case/ Daryl Jacob) certainly comes into this category and must have a chance of overturning hot favourite Seigneur des Bois (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) in the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.20 CET. We prefer the oldtimers in these conditions, and it could be that 15yo Victory Gunner (Richard Lee/ Jake Greenall) could be the main danger here; he loves it heavy, stays well and has been dropped in the weights. Another similar case is 13yo Star Galaxy (Jon Flint/ Donal Fahy) at 16.45, who has won 3 times on heavy ground at this track and may possibly give the favourite, top-weight Opera Og (Venetia Williams/ Sam Thomas) something to think about at these weights. A third CD specialist is Mauricethathlete (Martin Keighley/ Nick Slatter), bidding to repeat his 2012 victory at 16.15; Super Villan (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville) looks the danger here . Another one we like here is German-bred Shouda (Sue Leech/ Paul Moloney) in the handicao hurdle at 15.40; he has an excellent Schlenderhan pedigree, won 3 small races on the flat for Barney Curley and does not have much to beat in this modest affair.

Main interest at Cork weill be in the 2 1/2 miles conditions hurdle race at 16.20, in which lasdt xyear´s winner Oilily (Shane Byrne/ Andrew Leigh) and third Won in the Dark (Sabrina Harty/ Andrew Lynch) are back for anotzjher bite at the cherry. The two they have to beat are Willie Mullins´ mare Tarla (David Casey), who has fallen twice over fences at odds-on but is a smart hurdler, and especially Rebel Fitz (Michael Winters/ Davy Russell), the highest-rated riunner but burdened with a lot of weight. He is the only ride of the day for Russell, who suffered a punctured lung at Cheltenham last week and is back after only a week. He would undoubtedly be the most popular winner of the day if successful.

Haydock and Warwick

Only two meetings this afternoon and some very small fields - in fact there are only 4 races with more than 7 runners. Despite that, there is some very competitive racing, especially at Haydock. In the handicap hurdle at 15.40 CET the 4 runners include Seymour Eroic (Martin keighley/ Ian Popham), raised 5O lbs after winning his last 4 races, and Thunderstorm (Philip Hobbs/ Tony McCoy), up 38 lbs after winning his last 5, and they have to give weight to the other two runners, who are also in good form. We just favour Thunderstorm, who looks to have more in the tank, but any of the 4 could win. The handivcap chasdse at 17.20 alsoloks very open with 7 runners. Top-weight Mr.Moonshine (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania) has been running in some tzoiugh races and hads been dropped in the ratings, while Safran de Coztte (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall) has gone up after winmning 3 of hois 5 sdtarts this season. Oiur preference is for Simply Wings (Richard Lee/ Michael Nolan), whose trainer is in g reat form: he is amazingly consistent and has not finished out of the first 4 in over 4 years! He had no chance with the easy winner at Exeter last time, but just got the better of a subsequent Cheltenham winner for second place, form which gives him a good chance here. The hurdle handicap at 16.45 is another tricky race. Top-weight Robbie (Keith and James Reveley) won 4 races in the second half of last year, 3 of them at Southwell, but has not run since mid-December. We prefer the two ex-French runners Rockawango (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes) and Softsong (Hobbs/ Richard Johnson); the latter had arguanbly the better form in France, but the former finished sixth of 19 in the Imperial Cup last time and a repetition of that performance would give him excellent prospects here.

Another ex-French runner is our main fancy at Warwick - Lone Ranger (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the maiden hurdle at 15.25. He was a good listed winner for Alain de Royer-Dupré at Deauville last summer and even ran in Group One races; he has not shown a great deal in his two British starts, but this could be the right trace for him.

Awbeg Massini (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) and Boss in Boots (Seamus Mullins/ Andrew Thornton) have both shown some ability, but are no stars and certainly would not be up to winning a Deauville listed race. The question mark here is Toughness Danon (Tony Middleton/ Charlie Poste), who was third in the German Derby in 2009. He has been a total disappointment since then and is clearly not one to be trusted, refusing to race on two occasions, but if he is in the mood is certainly capable of figuring here.

3 poor meetings today

A typical Tuesday, with low level jumping from Exeter and even lower level all-weather flat racing from Southwell and Wolverhampton, and some very small fields making most of the races very uninviting. The only decent horses running can only be found in the novice chase at 16.00 CET at Exeter. Jump City (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Dare Me (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) have both shown ability.

There is not much between them on ratings, and as the Nicholls runner must concede 7 lbs to his rival, we shall go along with Dare Me. Molon Labe (Dai Rees/ Paul Molomey) and Gemini Ahhs (Fergal O´Brien/ Paddy Brennan) are both recent winners who face only moderate and out-for-form opposition at 15.30 and 16.30 respectively and should win again despite the extra weight, while nobody who saw the way Robin Will (R Woollacott/ Josh Guerriero) won at Leicester last time will want to oppose him in the hunter chase at 17.00.

A couple of German-breds catch the eye at Wolverhampton. Waldsee (Sean Curran/ William Carson) has totally failed to live up to his excellent pedigree (his dam and half-brother are both classic winners), but with his trainer and jockey in great form, can finally score in the 2 mile handicap at 16.10, while All the Winds (Sam Lycett/ Robert Tart), a runner-up here last time, can go one better at 17.40.

At Southwell there is also a German-bred with a chance- Favorite Girl (Mike Appleby/ Andrew Mullen) in the 11 furlongs handicap at 17.50; she has been hurdling, but is a CD winner and must go close in this modest company. Andrew Balding has a good strike-rate on the all-weather, but rarely sends runners here, so his Winter Music (Liam Keniry) must be respected in the mile maiden at 15.50.

4 meetings today

4 meetings today, but nothing of overwhelming importance. The best racing is over jumps at Navan in Ireland, but the going there will be very heavy (as it is also at the U.K. jumps meeting at Southwell). Main event is the Grade C novoices handoivap chase over 3 mjiles at 17.15 CET. Murchu (Shark Hanlon/ Andrew McNamara) ran an excellent race only 8 days ago when runner-up in the Leinster National.

Connections would like to run him in the Irish Grand National, but he will need to improve his rating to get into the field, so they need a good performance today. Wise Oscar (Dessie Hughes/ Bryan Cooper) is much improved and has won last two races, including this CD a fortnight ago; he looks the main danger in an open race. Otherwise Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh can continue their winning run and take the first two races here with the very promising Suntiep at 15.15 and City Slicker, beaten here at odds-on last time, half an hour later.

There are small fields at Southwell and the card is not very punter-friendly. The best race here is the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 17.40. The lightly-raced maiden Massena (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) is the top-weight here and also the likely favourite; he might be good enoiugh, but we prefer Marino Prince (Jody Foster/ Samantha Drake), who is very inconsistent but ran well last time in better company at Doncaster and is also a CD winner.

The two British all-weather meetings are both very low grade. Two German-breds that might run well at a decent price are Ordensritter (Chris Down/ Jemma Marshall) in the 2 mile handicap at 17.50 at Kempton - he has been hurdling with little success, but is on a handy mark in this feeble company- and the 10yo Acatenango mare Tyrana (Ian Williams/ Robert Tart) in the fillies handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 18.00 at Wolverhampton. She is relatively lightly-raced and is racing from the first time since last summer - also over hurdles- but has the assistance of the hottest apprentice around.

two graded races at Limerick

The ground is certain to be heavy at today´s 3 meetings on turf - at Carlisle in England and at Wexford and Limerick in Ireland. The best racing comes from the last-named track with two graded races. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh can continue their excellent run with Twigline in the mares novice hurdle at 16.25 CET; she fell when looking the likely winner at Sandown last time and today´s opposition does not look strong.

Mullins and Walsh can also take the opening hurdle race with Djakadam, but they have no runner in the other graded race, a mares novice chase over 2 3/4 miles at 17.25. This looks quite open, but we hope that the penalised Noras Fancy (Jimmy and Paddy Mangan) can make up for the family´ s bad luck at Cheltenham. Mullins can also be on the scorecard at Wexford with Security Breach at 15.35 and Supreme Carolina at 17.05, both partnered by Paul Townend. Neither are among the top stars at the stable but could be good enough to win in this company. Best betting race here is the veterans handicap chase at 17.35. Lastoftheleaders (Arthur Moore/ David Casey) is the class act here, but has to concede lots of weight all round, and we just wonder if he can give 27 lbs to last year´s winner Penny´s Bill (Liz Doyle/ Davy Condon), who has shown very little since but is on a very seductive weight as a result.

At Carlisle we are interested in the German-bred Lysino (Chris Grant/ Keith Renwick); a winner at Munich last year for Peter Schiergen, he has been well beaten in his two races so far over hurdles but could possibly show improvement in the novice hurdle here at 15.30. An Irish winner in the St. Patricks Day Handicap Chase over 3 1/4 miles would certainly be appropriate, but hunter-chaser Philson (Stuart Crawford/ Richard Johnson) does not look good enough. This trip will require a lot of stamina, and we shall stick with the proven stayers Posh Bird (Peter Niven/ Henry Brooke) and Dusky Bob (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook) as some of the others are not certain to stay.

The card at Lingfield is very low grade. Tenure (Gary Moore/ George Baker) makes a quick reappearance in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.15 after an easy win at Kempton on Wednesday. He could well win again, but we will take an each-way chance on oldtimer Benandonner (Paddy Butler/ Joe Fanning), who has been totally out of form but ran a bit better last time and is now on his lowest ever rating.

5 jumps meetings today

Obviously none of the races at today´s 5 N.H. meetings (two of them in Ireland) can compare with the sport on offer for the past 4 days at Cheltenham, but the Midlands Grand National over an extended 4 miles at 16.50 CET at Uttoxeter is an interesting race, though unlikely to have any bearing on the Aintree race. The going is heavy after a lot of rain and endless stamina is the quality which will be required here.

Last year Master Overseer (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) won this after a gruelling battle with Major Malarkey (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), but we definitely expect the latter to take his revenge this time. He is a massive 17 lbs better off and his stable is in great form. Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville) has top-weight here, but stays well and goes on the ground; he will probably make the running and cannot be ignored despite his high weight. Easily the best of the lightweights is Chac du Cadran (Colin Bealby/ Tom Messenger), who made all to win over slightly shorter at Catterick last time, but we shall stick to Major Malarkey.

At Ffos Las, the going will also be heavy. German-bred Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) is a horse we like; he runs in the 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle at 16.40, a race he won last year, and must have a chance of doubling up. He would probably prefer better ground, and the two we are most frightened of are Rigidity (Tom Vaughan/ Jason Kiely)- dropping in grade after having no chance in better company, but very well handicapped on his old form - and Scoter Fontaine (Rebecca Curtis/ Patrick Corbett), who has been very lightly raced this season but certainly capable of playing a major mole off this rating.

Nicky Henderson is on a high after his excellent Cheltenham meeting and can continue on his winning ways at Kempton. Malt Master (Tony McCoy) should be able to beat his two opponents in the novice chase at 15.50, while Barry Geraghty has good chances on Shernando at 16.25, the Queen´s Open Hearted at 17.35, a brother to last week´s Sandown winner Close Touch, and in the bumper at 18.40 with debutant West Wizard, who is out of a Königsstuhl mare.

Winter Derby at Lingfield

Lingfield stages its best all-weather card of the year today with the Group Three Winter Derby at 16.30 backed up by two listed races. Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) is a top miler, but showed he gets this 10 furlongs trip by beating Cai Shen (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) in last year´s Winter Derby, and we expect him to do so again. However he must give 5lbs to the very promising Farraaj (Roget Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) and this will not be easy; Farraaj, who ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in 2011, was an easy listed winner over this CD on his only start since and looks well up to group class.

Last year´s winner also turns up again in the listed 5 furlongs sprint at 15.20; this is Fratellino (Alan Mccabe/ Martin Harley)., amnd although her has not won since, he can go cllose again. Main opposition comes from Tarooq (Stuart Williams/ Sean Levey), who is out of a German classic winner, and Intransigence (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry), who are both running for the first time in a listed event. There is little between them judging on last Saturday´s 6 furlongs race at Wolverhampton, where the former won by a head - his 5th win in succession -, but we feel that Intransigence may be better suited by this trip.

The other listed race is over 7 furlongs for 3yo´s at 15.55 and with most of the runners making their seasonal debut, not easy to sum up. Richard Hannon has won this race 3 times in the last 5 years so his Emell (Richard Hughes) will almost certainly be favourite and will possibly be returned the winner.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wordiness - Beat Route - Stentorian
2. Race: Farmleigh House - Bear Behind - Ladies Are Forever
3. Race: Emell - Maxentius - Hoarding
4. Race: Farraaj - Premio Loco - Cai Shen
5. Race: Erodium - Spring Tonic - Jolaine
6. Race: Benzanno - Grey Mirage - Mia`S Boy
7. Race: Buckland - Cool Sky - Aquilonius

Rest of Cheltenham

After yesterday´s shock results, anything seems possible today, bu we hope to find a winner or two. The TRiumph Hurdle for 4yo´s, which opens proceedings at 14.30 CET, is traditionally a race whiuch produces some surprises, but three horses seem to stand out: Far West (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), Rolling Star (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and Our Conor (Dessie Hughes/ Bryan Cooper), all of them unbeaten over hurdles.

There is no way of comparing the form, but we think it is time for an Irish winner here and narrowly prefer Our Conor. The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.40 also has several serial winners in the line-up, including At Fishers Cross (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy), who outstayed Wednesday´s impressive winner The New One here last time out, ex-French Utopie des Bordes (Henderson/ Geraghty) and African Gold (from the in-form team of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies). With the Irish form working out so well, we just prefer Ballycasey (Willie Mullins/ Walsh).

There could be another Irish winner in the Foxhunters at 17.00, where Rofdger and Colman Sweeney´s Salsify is favourite to repeat his success of last year. Another Irish traider Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Jamie Codd) could be the main danger, while Chapoturgeon (Richard and James Barber) - runner-up in 2012- looks best of the Brits.

The 3 handicaps are as usual ferociously difficult with maximum fields in every case. We shall take 3 against the field in each and hope for the best. In the County Hurdle at 15.05 we go for Hissabaat (Dermot Weld/ Michael Nolan), Punjabi (Henderson/ Geraghty - and winner of the 2009 Champion Hurdle here!) and Il Fenomeno (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry). David Pipe would obviousy like to win the race named after his father at 17.40, so Gevrey Chambertin (Tom Bellamy) goes on the short list together with Double Ross (Twiston-Davies/ Adam Wedge) and First Avenue (Laura Mongan/ Nathan Adams), going for a big bonus. Nicky Henderson launches a strong challenge in the race named after his father at 18.15; he has 6 runners, of which French Opera with stable jockey Geraghty and top-weight Petit Robin (Nico de Boinville), who has mainly been racing over hurdles but is also pretty smart over fences, could be the best. If another trainer is to claim this prize, it might be Tom George with R ody (Paddy Brennan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Our Conor - Far West - Rolling Star
2. Race: Cotton Mill - Tennis Cap - Ifandbutwhynot
3. Race: At Fishers Cross - African Gold - Utopie Des Bordes
4. Race: Bobs Worth - Sir Des Champs - Silviniaco Conti
5. Race: Salsify - Chapoturgeon - Cottage Oak
6. Race: Gevrey Chambertin - Edeymi - Ma Filleule
7. Race: Alderwood - Ulck du Lin - Kid Cassidy

Rest of Cheltenham

It has been a good meeting so far for favourite backers, and we expect this trend to continue today. Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is unbeaten over fences asnd looked most impressive when winning at Kempton on Boxing Day; he can take the opening Jewson Novices Chase at 14.30 CET and see off a strong Irish challenge. The handicaps all have huge fields, but there are clear favourites at 15.05 - Sam Winner (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and at 17.00 Ballynagour (Pipe/ Scu) and both should certainly finish in the money, although in the latter race we also like Poquelin (Nicholls/ Harry Derham), who always runs well at this track and has been dropped in the weights. The handicap chase for amateur riders at 17.40 can go to Super Duty (Donald McCain/ Derek O´Connor), who apart from one fall has never yet finished out of the first two and has one of the very best riders in the saddle. The two Irish sisters-in-law Nina Carberry and Katie Walsh ride the lightly- weighted Romanesco and No Secrets here and could also both finish in the frame, while they also have chances in the cross country at 18.15 (if it is run today) on Arabella Boy and Shakervilz respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dynaste - Captain Conan - Aupcharlie
2. Race: Sam Winner - Shutthefrontdoor - Close House
3. Race: First Lieutenant - Cue Card - Riverside Theatre
4. Race: Reve De Sivola - Oscar Whisky - Bog Warrior
5. Race: Ballynagour - Hunt Ball - Cantlow
6. Race: Super Duty - Alfie Sherrin - Prince Of Pirates
7. Race: Arabella Boy - Outlaw Pete - Bostons Angel

Ryanair Chase and World Hurdle at Cheltenham

It i still very cold at Cheltenham, but racing goes ahead today, and the ground is drying out a little. The only problem is that there are still frozen patches on the cross country course, and a special inspection is to be held for this race, scheduled for 18.15 CET, later on, otherwise it is hoped to run the event as the last race tomorrow. The main events today are the Ryanair Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.40 and the World Hurdle at 16.20.

On the former event we strongly fancy First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell), who has been running with credit over longer distances but should be ideally suited by this trip. Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard) is thre maoin threat; he won the bumper here is 2010 and was runner-up in the Arkle two years ago, and ran a good race when winning at Ascot last month. German-bred Ghizao represents the strong Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh team, but is well held on form, and much more dangerous are the two past winners of this race Albertas Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) who won in 2010 and 2011, and Riverside Theatre (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), a narrow winner last year from Albertas Run, these two are both coming off a long break but run their best races fresh, so now is the time for both of them. Albertas Run is by far the oldest horse in the race, but should by no means be underestimated. However First Lieuenant, although he has not won for a while, has to our mind the be st form in the race.

The World Hurdle is like Hamlet without the Prince, as Big Bucks, who has won it for the past 4 years and would havebeen a near certainty to win it again were he not sidelined through injury. His trainer Paul Nicholls now saddles Celestial Halo (Daryl Jacob) and ex-French Wonderful Charm (Ruby Walsh), but neither has shown their top form at this distance and we do not believe they can win. Willie Mullins and Nkicky Henderson, the leading traiensr at this meeting so far, also reach saddle two runners, and we expect Henderson´ s Oscar Whisky (Geraghty) to win. He was just beaten over this CD in January by Reve de Sivola (Nick Johnson/ Richard Johnson), who reopposes on the same terms, but the ground was very heavy that day, and on this better going we expect Oscar Whisky to take his revenge.

Rest of Cheltenham

Yesterday´s racing was dominated by Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson and it looks like more of the same today. Ruby Walsh rode all Mullins´ winners yesterday, but he will not be able to partner our fancy Back in Focus in the opening National Hunt Chase over 4 miles at 14.30 CET as this race is restricted to amateurs, so he has put up his son Paddy instead. Like most of the runners, he has no experience of extreme distances, but runs as if the trip will present no problem. The lightly-raced Buddy Bolero (David Pipe/ Jamie Codd) is moving up in grade but looks the main danger as his last wins were gained in excellent style.

The Irish banker of the meeting (although there are several candidates for this honour) is the German-bred Pont Alexandre in the Neptune novice hurdle at 15.05. He has won all his starts in terrific fashion and although he meets stronger opposition now, will be a short-priced favourite to land the hat-trick and score another point for Mullins and Walsh. Chatterbox (Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), also unbeaten in 3 starts, looks the main danger, although Taquin de Seuil (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) are also strongly fancied here.

Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Paul Nicholls´ Unioniste rather than Mullins´ Boston Bob in the RSA Chase at 15.40, which is an obvious pointer. The latter, now partnered by Paul Townend, is however not without a chance, but we think that the main Irish hope here is Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty/ Davy Russell), who runs as if this distance of just over 3 miles will be just up his street.

The last 3 races, all with 24+ runners, all look incredibly difficult, and anyone who gets all 3 winners deverves a medal. We like to follow the German-breds and therefore suggest, more in hope than anticipation, Cash and Go (Henderson/ Geraghty), out of a Königsstuhl mare, in the Coral Cup at 17.00 - although stable-companion Ericht (Gary Derwin) looks a big danger- and Zamdy Man (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), out of a Nebos mare, and Milord (Kim Bailey/ Nick Scholfield), by Monsun, in the Fred Winter at 17.40. With 11 undefeated runners in the line-up, the bumpetr at 18.10looks impossible. It is interesting that the current champion flat jockeys of England and Ireland ride here, Richard Hughes on Mick Channon´s Sgt. Reckless, and Joseph O´Brien on his father Aidan´s Shield. Aidan has not had a runner at Cheltenham since the glory days of Istabraq, but we certainly expect this one, bred and owned by his wife, to run a big race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Back In Focus - Buddy Bolero - Rival D`Estruval
2. Race: Pont Alexandre - Taquin Du Seuil - The New One
3. Race: Boston Bob - Unioniste - Hadrian`s Approach
4. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Sizing Europe - Mail De Bievre
5. Race: Pendra - Abbey Lane - Fiveforthree
6. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Ptit Zig - Fatcatinthehat
7. Race: Le Vent D`antan - Union Dues - Sgt Reckless

Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham

As we predicted, it was a good day for the fancied horses yesterday and the "good things" all won. The weather is slightly better today, the course has passed an early morning inspection and the going is good to soft. The cross country race, abandoned yesterday, will now be run tomorrow (conditions permitting). Main feature today is the Champion Chase over 2 miles at 16.20 CET and all eyes will be on the hugely talented Sprinter Sacre (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who is expected to start as the hottest favourite since Arkle´s third Gold Cup in 1966. He has won 11 of his 13 starts, including the Arkle over this CD at the last Festival and really does look unbeatable under normal circumstances.

The obvious one for the forecast is Sizing Europe (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), winner of the Arkle in 2010, this race in 2011 and an unlucky second here last year, since when he is unbeaten. He was won 18 of his 35 starts, and been placed ten times as well, and never seems to runa bad race; he is as good as ever at the age of 11 and could possibly give the favourite a race- nothing that any of his U.K.-based rivals have been able to do.

Third place could possibly go to Mail de Bievre (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who is being brought back in distance and will probably make the running at a strong pace. This could well burn off the no-hopers but will set things up for the favourites and defeat for Sprinter Sacre (who is by the German-bred stallion Network) would be the one of the biggest upsets ever at the Festival. This is not a race to bet on, but certainly one to watch and savour.

Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham

The Cheltenham N.H. festival is now probably the highest-profile race meeting of the entire year in the U.K. and Ireland, and we must hope for the sake of owners, trainers and jockeys, not to mention punters and bookmakers and ordinary racegoers, that the meeting goes ahead despite the unpleasant conditions. There have been plenty of suprise results here and historically it is not a good meeting for favourites - we even remember one meeting when no favourites won at all! However, although we like to bet against the favourites, our feeling this time is that the fancied horses will come out on top.

Today´s top event is the Champion Hurdle at 16.20 CET and the betting suggests that it is a 3 -horse race between Hurricane Fly (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), Zarkandar (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Rock on Ruby (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) and we shall be surprised if one of this trio does not win. Rock on Ruby won last year, with the Fly third at odds-on, the 2010 winner Binocular (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) fourth and Zarkandar fifth, but Hurricane Fly was not at his best that day and we are hopeful that he can reverse the form- especially on this soft ground, which will probably favour him and Zarkandar and be against Rock on Ruby and Binocular. Hurricane Fly was 16 of his 18 starts since joining Mullins from France, and 14 of these races have been at Grade One level, including this last year. He is top-rated, and we think that the tough Zarkandar - a half-brother to Arc winner Zarkava- is the one to beat. He won the Triumph here in 2011 and is unbeaten in 3 starts this s eason.

It is difficult to know what to think about Rock on Ruby, with the news that he is to wear first-time blinkers coming as a surprise. He is however on no account to make the running, according to his trainer, and the possible lack of pace could be a problem for them all. It looks as if Countrywide Flame (John Quinn/ Denis O´Regan), last year´s Triumph winner, will make the running, but tactics will play a major role here.

Henderson has the best record of any trainer in this race, and also saddles Grandouet (Barry Geraghty) and Khyber Kim (Paddy Brennan). Grandouet has obviously been difficult to train and ran second to Zarkandar here in December on his only 2012 start, while Khyber Kim was runner-up to Binocular in 2010 but has run very rarely since. We cannot fancy them and think that the race lies between the Fly and Zarkandar, especially with the doubts about Rock on Ruby on this ground and with the blinkers on.

The lull before the storm

With Stratford off, there is only low level N.H. racing today at Taunton and Plumpton, with generally very small fields and only a couple of races where normal each way betting is possible. Nicky Henderson can warm up for what looks like being a highly successful week by taking the fillies juvenile hurdle at 15.20 CET at Taunton with Little Dutch Girl (David Bass). However she will not be at a backable price and a more interesting value bet could be Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Noiel Fehily) in the handicap hurdle at 16.20. This half-brother to Samum and other stars has so far been a big disappointment in the U.K. but we remain hopeful that he can show his real ability before long.

Another likely long odds-on winner is Broadway Buffalo (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) in the novice hurdle at 15.10 at Plumpton. He is unbeaten in four starts (two bumpers, two hurdles races) and despite a double penalty should win this easily; he is almost certainly the best horse running today. Pipe and Scu can also take the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 17.10 with the rather tricky Bamboleo, who seems to have found a suitable opportunity here. Our best bet here is Gemini Ahhs (Fergal O´Brien/ Paddy Brennan) in the stayers handicap chase at 17.40; he is still a maiden, but a repetition of his latest second place should be good enough to see off these plodders.

3 jumps meetings today

3 jumps meetings today, but with Cheltenham starting on Tuesday, there is obviously not much racing at the top level. However the Irish meeting at Naas has a couple of decent events on the card. Main feature here is the Leinster National, a handicap chase over 3 miles at 17.40 CET with 18 runners. Three of them still have hopes of running in the Grand National itself (now only 4 weeks away)- the 2 topweights Rare Bob and Oscar Time- second at Aintree in 2011- and today´s likely favourite Tarquinius (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon), while Paddy Pub (Keith Purcell/ PF Mangan) won this last year. Top owner JP McManus has 3 runners in the field, and as it is his 62nd birthday, we are hoping one of them wins- probably Fever Pitch (Arthur Moore/ David Casey), who fell last week when strongly fancied at Leopardstown.
The British meetings at Market Rasen and Warwick are less exciting, but two horses we have been following all season without much success reappear today - Dawn Twister (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) at 16.50 at the former meeting and Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell) ten minutes later at the latter, and we shall give them both another chance. Dawn Twister was hampered when third last time at Doncaster and can make up for that mishap this time, while Mon Mome has not won since his sensational victory in 2009 Grand National, but is now on a very handy weight indeed.

Betting forecast Naas:
1. Race: Zuzka - Shrapnel - Moscow Mannon
2. Race: Twinlight - Dedigout - You Must Know Me
3. Race: The Paparrazi Kid - Talbot Road - Civena
4. Race: Smart Money - Wicklow Lad - Stop The Clock
5. Race: Cadspeed - Johannisberger - Hidden Future
6. Race: Tarquinius - Rich Revival - Fever Pitch
7. Race: Foxrock - Perfect Gentleman - Davy From Milan
8. Race: Quickpick Vic - Angel Chorus - Couleur France

rest of today´s racing

the other two U.K. jumps meetings, at Ayr and Chepstow, are much less interesting than Sandown -not to mention Cheltenham- and consist mainly of lower level handicaps.
However two German-breds we hope run well are Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Callum Whillans) in the 17.00 CET at Ayr - Irish raider Shariyan (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power) is the clear favourite here, but has shot up the weights after his winter double at Leopardstown- and Oldrik (Philip Hobbs/ Michael Nolan) at 16.40 at Chepstow, who has been well below form this season, but has not dropped to a lenient rating and meets feeble opposition here.
Of greater significance is Wolverhampton, which stages its most valuable card of the year. The opening listed race over 7 furlongs at 15.20 looks quite tricky, as we are not convinced by the likely favourite Kenny Powers (Tom Dascombe/ Hayley Turner); he ran some good races in better company at Meydan, but only came back this week and we feel that the climate change could come as a bit of a shock. The improving 4yo Solar Deity (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) has an obvious chance, but oldtimer Regal Parade (Milton Bradley/ Graham Lee) would be a certainty on his old form, so we shall take a chance on his being fit enough after his break. The valuable Lincoln Tral handicap at 15.55 features several horses that ran last year, including the winner Nazreef (Hughie Morrison/ Joe Fanning) and close third Mia´s Boy (Chris Dwyer/ George Baker). The latter is a tricky ride, as he has to come very late, but he is handicapped to win this.The 6 furlongs handicap at 17.05 is another tricky o ne; we are not convinced by the top weights and choose Al´s Memory (David Evans/ Richard Hughes), who runs almost every week and is moving up in grade here, but keeps his form well.

Betting forecast Ayr:
1. Race: Swatow Typhoon - Shanen - Merigo
2. Race: Rhymers Ha` - Stanley Bridge - Full Speed
3. Race: Golden Sparkle - Little Glenshee - Streamtown
4. Race: And The Man - Captain Americo - Do It For Dalkey
5. Race: Shariyan - Pas Trop Tard - Los Nadis
6. Race: Wilde Pastures - Bene Lad - Bocciani
7. Race: Island Confusion - Ceasar Milan - Mangas Colorades

Imperial Cup at Sandown

after yesterday´s rain, the ground is soft everywhere today and will be especially testing at Sandown, while it is also expected to be soft for the first couple of days (at least) at next week´s Cheltenham Festival. There are quite a few non-runners and the return of very soft ground means a new assessment of the form.
Easily the best jumps racing today comes from Sandown and the Imperial Cuzp, a handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 16.15 CET, is not only a really tough handicap in its own right, but has added spice due to the large bonus on offer for any horse that wins this and goes on to success next week at Cheltenham, usually in the County Hurdle, but any race will do. The Pipes have successfuly targeted this double on several occasions, and David saddles two runners here - Tanerko Emery (Kieron Edgar) and Kazlian, ridden by stable jockey Tom Scudamore. The former has good form, but faces a tough task under top weight, but Kazlian, who looked very promising a year ago, could be a big danger and definitely goes on the short list. Three lightly-raced novices head the betting: Mr. Mole (Paul Nicholls/ Tony ;McCoy), Pine Creek (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) and Tominator (Jonjo O´Neill/ Dougie Costello), all of whom appear to have been laid out for this. Obviously lack of experience could be a problem, although Tominator at least has run in plenty of big field handicaps on the flat and should have no problems in this regard. Mr.Mole,the only horse top owner JP McManus has in training with Nicholls, has only run 4 times in his life, but he is probably much better than a handicapper and looks like going off a strong favourite. he gets a very narrow vote, but he is no great value at less than 4-1, and does not have a great deal in hand of bottpm weight Barizan (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), who is the best outsider here.
The other handicap hurdles here also look very tricky - we shall take a chance on Dollar Bill (Nick Gifford/ O´Regan) in the opening race at 14.30, while the Queen´s Close Touch (Barry Geraghty) may be the best of Nicky Henderson´s 3 runners at 15.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calculated Risk - Captain Cardington - Whipcrackaway
2. Race: Edmund Kean - Close Touch - Whisper
3. Race: Rigadin De Beauchene - There`S No Panic - Goring One
4. Race: Mr Mole - Tominator - Kazlian
5. Race: Free Thinking - Reach The Beach - Centasia
6. Race: Rebel Rebellion - Ciceron - Synthe Davis
7. Race: Arbeo - Oscar Davy - Ballyallia Man

amateurs in the spotlight today

amateur jockeys have their moment in the sun today, as there are 3 races restricted to amateurs at both Sandown and Leicester. The Grand Military Gold Cup over 3 miles at the fomer track at 16.25 is the main event of the day, although not a patch on earller runnings of this famous race. Jody Sole has ridden several winners here amd partners the likely favourite, Paul Nicholls´ Merrion Square, but we are a bit sceptical as he has not run since October and his best form is over 2 miles. We prefer Martys Mission (David Prichard/ Lucy Gardner) and O Crotaigh (AD Brown/ Felix Wheeler), both last-time-winners who will definitely get the trip. However Jody can certainly win the hunters chase at 17.35 on Nicholls´ Gwanako and also has a good each-way chance on Peter Middleton´s Trip the Light, top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.20. Best race for professionals here is the handicap hurdle at 17.00; Cockney Trucker (Philip Hobbs) ran a great race in defeat last Saturday, and if he has recovered from that hard race, must have a good chance here.
Nico de Boinville is in our opinion the best amateur around and he can take the handicap chase at 17.10 at Leicester on Richard Guest´s Be My Deputy, who won over this CD 10 days ago and can follow up under a penalty. Two more recent winners who can score again here are Le Grand Chene (Mrs Leech/ Richie McLernon) at 16.00 and Bellflower Boy (Dr-. Richard Newland/ Christopher Ward) at 17.45. We hope also to see German-bred El Dancer (Lucy Wadham/ Aidan Coleman), a smart hurdler, finally win over fences at 15.30, when he would appear to have only Private Equity (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) to beat.
At Ayr, local trainers Lucinda Russell and Jim Goldie should be followed. Goldie has 3 runners in the handicap hurdle at 17.20, and we are especially interested in German-bred A Southside Boy (Henry Brooke); he is 6 lbs out of the handicap, but we think he is a bit better than his rating and can pull off as surprise here.
A word of warning: it is raining all over and the ground is getting softer, especially at Sandown.
The most interesting runner at this evening´s two all-weather meetings is Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Wayne Lordan), who has only 3 opponents to beat at 21.50 at Dundalk. He won the Group One Prix de la Foret last October before finishing 4th in the Hong King Mile and this is his prep race for the Dubai World Cup meeting. It will be a huge shock is he is defeated today, but the odds will unfortunately reflect this.

Betting forecast Sandown:
1. Race: Prickles - Kastani Beach - Petit Ecuyer
2. Race: Olympian Boy - Greywell Boy - Coolbeg
3. Race: Merrion Square - O Crotaigh - Knighton Combe
4. Race: Cockney Trucker - Winds And Waves - Top Of The Range
5. Race: Gwanako - Whizzaar - Dead Or Alive
6. Race: Valco De Touzaine - Viva Steve - Expanding Universe

5 more poor meetings today

More of the same today, with some large fields - especially at Wincanton and at the Irish meeting at Clonmel, but mainly of low level performers. Paul Nicholls is no doubt concentrating more on Cheltenham than on today´s runners, but he is always to be feared at his local track Wincanton, where he can saddle two winners in the shape of Ruben Cotter in the novice chase at 15.30 CET and Pure Oxygen in the bumper at 18.45, both ridden by Daryl Jacob. The latter is a half-brother to Gold Cup winner Best Mate and is apparently held in some regard. We don´t fancy Nicholls´ Suerte al Salto (Harry Derham) in the handiap hurdle at 16.00, who looks a tricky character and has been runner-up now four times running - each time with a different jockey. Course specialist Chesil Beach Boy (MJ Coombe/ Mark Quinlan) looks a sound each-way alternative.

There are also some cozrese specialkists in action at Carlisle., especially in the styers handivap cjhadse at 16.45: Royal Mackintosh has won 5 times during his long career, all of them here, while Etxalar (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) is another one to show his best form here. We especially like the latter, who has come down a lot in the weights and will appreciate the better ground. The same goes for Rudemeister (Andrew Parker/ Richie McGrath) in the novices handicap chase at 15.40, while Coverholder (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) attempts to complete a quick six-timer in the novices handicap hurdle at 17.20. He has gone up 40 lbs for his 5 wins since Christmas- all on very soft ground- but can carry on here.

3 more poor meetings today

There is no point in expecting high class racing today and today´s 3 cards - over jumps at Exeter and Newcastle, and on the all-weather at Southwell, are all low grade. Paul Nicholls´ strike rate at the moment is excellent and he can score with his only runner of the day, Southfield Theatre (Daryl Jacob) in the novice hurdle over 3 miles at 17.30 CET at Exeter. We also like Abnaki (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) in the novice chase here half an hour earlier. The big race here is the Devon National over 3 3/ 4 miles at 16.30, in which we fancy top weight Sea Saffron (Sue Gardner/ Matt Griffiths); he has been pulled up the last twice - on heavy ground- but this going is much more suitable and he has a good record in these staying chases, including at this track. We were hoping for a big price, but it seems that other people have had the same idea. Matt Griffiths also has a chance on Jeremy Scott´s Josh´s Dreamway in the handicap hurdle at 16.00; he won the race last year and althou gh up in the weights, today´s opposition, although numerous, does not look strong. Presenting Arms (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) could be the main danger.

At Newcastle we are also hoping for two past winners to take the same race races again: Dawn Ride (Micky Hammond/ Joe Colliver) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 16.20 and 2011 winner Categorical (Keith and James Reveley) in the handicap chase at 17.50. The last-named has been below form this season, but has come down a lot in the weights as a result, but so has Railway Dillon (Donald M;cCain/ Jason Maguire) and he looks the main threat. The Reveleys also run dual winner Victor Hewgo in the novice hurdle at 17.20, but he must carry a double penalty, and so we prefer Ballinvarrig (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Indian Castle (McCain/ Maguire), both bumper runners-up last time and now running for the first time over sticks. If they don´t jump well enough, Firth of the Clyde (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) could be the one to take advantage.

Leopardstown today

As is usual on a Sunday, the best racing today is in Ireland, although - with Cheltenham aroiund the corner- there are no Grade One events on the Leopardstown card. The most interesting event is the Ballsbridge Hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 15.40 CET, where horses with wildly differing record are entered, including top chaser Forpadydeplasterer (Tom and Bryan Cooper), famous for his run of second places in the top races, inclding Cheltenham´s Champion Chase. He has not run over hurdles for 5 years and is being aimed at the Grand National, and is a most unlikely winner here. German-bred Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Davy Russell) is also better known as a chaser- winner at Cheltenham in 2011- and is coming off a break, but looks a good each-way shot, while Won in the Dark (Sabrina Harty/ Danny Mullins) is a CD specialist who won this race in 2010. However the one to beat is surely Blackstairmountain for the all-conquering Willie Mullins- Ruby Walsh team. This versatile performer is e qually proficient on the flat, over hurdles and over fences and is being prepared for the Nakayama Grand Jump in Japan, the world´s richest jumps race. In terms of ratings, he is no good thing here, but we still expect him to win with authority.

The bumper at 18.10 is another fascinating contest. Grecian Tiger (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara) was odds-on to score on his debut at Naas in January; he was not overly impressive in landing the odds but is still regarded as a major prospect and this better ground will suit. Three of today´s opponents, all receiving 7 lbs, ran in a similar race at Punchestown 11 days ago, with Ange Balafre (Noel Meade/Nina Carberry) running on well for second place. However we can certainly expect a much better performance now from Aidan O´Brien´s pair, Shield (Kate Harrington) and the very well-bred Egyptian Warrior (with the trainer´s daughter Sarah), who finished fourth and fifth.

The racing at the two British tracks, Huntingdon and Sedgefield, is at a lower level, although we are hoping for two successes for ex-German horses at the former track. Lyssio (Jim Best/ Jamie Moore) makes his hurdling debut at 14.30 and was probably the best in this field on his flat form, while Engai (David Bridgwater/ Tom Phelan), already twice a runner-up this year, has an obvious each-way chance in the handicap hurdle at 17.30. Flat form does not always work out over hurdles, but we shall be surprised of Darley Sun (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) fails to win the maiden hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 18.00; he was a top stayer on the flast- winning the Cesarewitch in 2009- and was a close third on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen, when his jumping was not fluent. He hope that his team has got that problem ironed out, and his only realistic opponent is Shernando (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy), also decent on the flat, who has been placed twice over hurdles and was last time r unner-up in a jumpers bumper.

Grand National clues at Doncaster and Kelso

Almost all the Cheltenham hopefuls have had their last prep race before the N.H. Festival, which starts in 11 days time, but today sees two races which could have a bearing on ther Grand National, to be run on April 6th. At Doncaster, the handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 15.55 CET has several Grand National entries in the line-up, notably the two top weights Calgary Bay (Mick Channon/ Tony McCoy) and Join Togeher (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) - the latter being apparently the big Aintree hope for last year´s winning stable. Both should appreciate the drying ground and go on the short list. Ikorodu Road (Matt Sheppard/Charlie Poste) won this last year, but is up in the weigjhts and we think that vtoday´s field is sztronger. In December over 3 miles here he finished a close fifth behind Court by Surprise (Emma Lavelle/ Dougie Costello), and Keith Reveley´s two runners Night in Milan (Nico de Boinville), and Corkage (James Reveley), with Quentin Collonges and Mr. Moonshine furt her back. In our view., Corkage - a course yspecialkist- now comnes out brest of theser at the weights. This is a very open race and Mr. Moss (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Billie Magern (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Adam Wedge) must be considered, but we think the two top-weights and the two Reveley runners are the pick.

Nicholls and Walsh should in any case take the novice chase at 14.15 with Themilanhorse as well as the handicap chase at 15.20 with top-weight Toubab, where the lightly-weighted Prince of Dreams (Ed and Felix de Giles) looks the main danger. Aaim to Prosper, a smart stayer on the flat and twice winner of the Cesarewitch, has not been fully convincing over hurdles so far, but he is now stepped up in trip and could be another winner for the Nicholls/ Walsh team at 16.30. Another smart flat horse that can finally get his head in front over hurdles is Thimaar (Donald McCain/ Adrian Lane) in the novice hurdle at 17.05. Unfortunately the drying ground means that there are quite a few non-runners and punters are advised to check before placing their bets.

At Kelso, the listed chase over just short of 3 miles at 17.15 is thr main feature and 2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) - if he runs - is best in at the weights. However we do not expect him to beat the much-improved Harry Topper (Kim Bailey/ Timmy Murphy), who has been a revelation this season. Bold Sir Brian (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) fell heavily last time, but had won 5 of his 6 previous races and is the main danger. Lucinda also runs Lord of Drums in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.05 and Ballyben in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.40 and both will have their supporters, but we prefer Sacre Toi (James Ewart/ Dale Irving) and the very promising Eduard (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) respectively.

Doncaster and Newbury

Both Doncaster and Newbury stage some competitive N.H. races today, although both of them have much stronger cards tomorrow, while there is also all-weather racing at the usual low level at Lingfield this afternoon (with small fields) and Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland) this evening. The weather is improving and the going at Doncaster is amazingly given as good to firm in places. In any case this means that the form of the last 3 months, when the ground was almost always heavy, should be treated with caution. Brocturne Papa Go (Keith and James Reveley) is therefore our selection in the opening novices handicap hurdle at 15.10 CET; his form over sticks is very poor, but he has won 4 races on the flat, all on good or good to firm. But we less keen on stable companion Brave Spartacus in the handicap chase at 127.50; all his wins have come on soft ground at Catterick, and as a front-runner he will be setting the race up for the stronger finishers, perhaps Brunswick Gold (Ste ve Gollings/ Daryl Jacob) or Civil Unrest (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes). Paul Nicholls can win the novice chase at 15.45 with Empire Levant (Jacob), but his ex-French Elenika (Ryan Mahon) in the conditional jockeys novice hurdle at 17.25 is another one we think will not be suited by the ground; debutant Figaro (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) and Life and Soul (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke) both had useful flat form, while the 4yo filly Cockney Sparrow (John Quinn/ Dean Pratt) although beaten at 5-1 on last time, is a danger to all off her light weight. Call Me A Star (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) looks the certainty of the day in the mares novice hurdle at 16.20; her second place here last time in much better company is easily the best form in the race.

King could also be among the winners at Newbury, where his Handazan and Kenai Peninsula, both partnered by stable jockey Robert Thornton, set the standard in the 4yo hurdle at 14.50 and novice hurdle at 15.20 respectively. However they are the only winners in their races and have to concede 7 lbs all round, which will not be easy. For that reason we prefer the useful flat performers - and N.H. debutants - Gassin Golf, Oscan and Rosslyn Castle in the former event, and Italian Master (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) in the latter. The last-named is Ruby´s only ride of the day, although we assume his main reason for being in England is to school some of the stable´s Cheltenham hopes. Our best bet at Newbury is Buffalo Bob (Kim Bailey/ Nick Scholfield) each-way in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 17.35, as he seems very well handicapped here and can hold off the consistent Roll the Dice (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson). Easily the best horse on view today will be the ex-Nicholls crack Kauto Star, who is to give a dressage demonstration before racing. The owner´s decision to retrain the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in this way was not universally approved, but we think it was perfectly justified and an excellent idea.

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: Easydoesit - Greyhope - Broctune Papa Gio
2. Race: Empire Levant - Lets Get Serious - Speed Steed
3. Race: Call Me A Star - September Blaze - Mistral Reine
4. Race: Brave Spartacus - Quite The Man - Brunswick Gold
5. Race: Cockney Sparrow - Elenika - Flaming Arrow
6. Race: Boston Blue - Royal Opera - White Diamond
7. Race: Definite Ruby - Phase Shift - Miss Exhibitionist