Saturday, March 09, 2013

Imperial Cup at Sandown

after yesterday´s rain, the ground is soft everywhere today and will be especially testing at Sandown, while it is also expected to be soft for the first couple of days (at least) at next week´s Cheltenham Festival. There are quite a few non-runners and the return of very soft ground means a new assessment of the form.
Easily the best jumps racing today comes from Sandown and the Imperial Cuzp, a handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 16.15 CET, is not only a really tough handicap in its own right, but has added spice due to the large bonus on offer for any horse that wins this and goes on to success next week at Cheltenham, usually in the County Hurdle, but any race will do. The Pipes have successfuly targeted this double on several occasions, and David saddles two runners here - Tanerko Emery (Kieron Edgar) and Kazlian, ridden by stable jockey Tom Scudamore. The former has good form, but faces a tough task under top weight, but Kazlian, who looked very promising a year ago, could be a big danger and definitely goes on the short list. Three lightly-raced novices head the betting: Mr. Mole (Paul Nicholls/ Tony ;McCoy), Pine Creek (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) and Tominator (Jonjo O´Neill/ Dougie Costello), all of whom appear to have been laid out for this. Obviously lack of experience could be a problem, although Tominator at least has run in plenty of big field handicaps on the flat and should have no problems in this regard. Mr.Mole,the only horse top owner JP McManus has in training with Nicholls, has only run 4 times in his life, but he is probably much better than a handicapper and looks like going off a strong favourite. he gets a very narrow vote, but he is no great value at less than 4-1, and does not have a great deal in hand of bottpm weight Barizan (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), who is the best outsider here.
The other handicap hurdles here also look very tricky - we shall take a chance on Dollar Bill (Nick Gifford/ O´Regan) in the opening race at 14.30, while the Queen´s Close Touch (Barry Geraghty) may be the best of Nicky Henderson´s 3 runners at 15.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calculated Risk - Captain Cardington - Whipcrackaway
2. Race: Edmund Kean - Close Touch - Whisper
3. Race: Rigadin De Beauchene - There`S No Panic - Goring One
4. Race: Mr Mole - Tominator - Kazlian
5. Race: Free Thinking - Reach The Beach - Centasia
6. Race: Rebel Rebellion - Ciceron - Synthe Davis
7. Race: Arbeo - Oscar Davy - Ballyallia Man