Friday, March 01, 2013

Doncaster and Newbury

Both Doncaster and Newbury stage some competitive N.H. races today, although both of them have much stronger cards tomorrow, while there is also all-weather racing at the usual low level at Lingfield this afternoon (with small fields) and Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland) this evening. The weather is improving and the going at Doncaster is amazingly given as good to firm in places. In any case this means that the form of the last 3 months, when the ground was almost always heavy, should be treated with caution. Brocturne Papa Go (Keith and James Reveley) is therefore our selection in the opening novices handicap hurdle at 15.10 CET; his form over sticks is very poor, but he has won 4 races on the flat, all on good or good to firm. But we less keen on stable companion Brave Spartacus in the handicap chase at 127.50; all his wins have come on soft ground at Catterick, and as a front-runner he will be setting the race up for the stronger finishers, perhaps Brunswick Gold (Ste ve Gollings/ Daryl Jacob) or Civil Unrest (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes). Paul Nicholls can win the novice chase at 15.45 with Empire Levant (Jacob), but his ex-French Elenika (Ryan Mahon) in the conditional jockeys novice hurdle at 17.25 is another one we think will not be suited by the ground; debutant Figaro (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) and Life and Soul (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke) both had useful flat form, while the 4yo filly Cockney Sparrow (John Quinn/ Dean Pratt) although beaten at 5-1 on last time, is a danger to all off her light weight. Call Me A Star (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) looks the certainty of the day in the mares novice hurdle at 16.20; her second place here last time in much better company is easily the best form in the race.

King could also be among the winners at Newbury, where his Handazan and Kenai Peninsula, both partnered by stable jockey Robert Thornton, set the standard in the 4yo hurdle at 14.50 and novice hurdle at 15.20 respectively. However they are the only winners in their races and have to concede 7 lbs all round, which will not be easy. For that reason we prefer the useful flat performers - and N.H. debutants - Gassin Golf, Oscan and Rosslyn Castle in the former event, and Italian Master (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) in the latter. The last-named is Ruby´s only ride of the day, although we assume his main reason for being in England is to school some of the stable´s Cheltenham hopes. Our best bet at Newbury is Buffalo Bob (Kim Bailey/ Nick Scholfield) each-way in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 17.35, as he seems very well handicapped here and can hold off the consistent Roll the Dice (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson). Easily the best horse on view today will be the ex-Nicholls crack Kauto Star, who is to give a dressage demonstration before racing. The owner´s decision to retrain the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in this way was not universally approved, but we think it was perfectly justified and an excellent idea.

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: Easydoesit - Greyhope - Broctune Papa Gio
2. Race: Empire Levant - Lets Get Serious - Speed Steed
3. Race: Call Me A Star - September Blaze - Mistral Reine
4. Race: Brave Spartacus - Quite The Man - Brunswick Gold
5. Race: Cockney Sparrow - Elenika - Flaming Arrow
6. Race: Boston Blue - Royal Opera - White Diamond
7. Race: Definite Ruby - Phase Shift - Miss Exhibitionist