Tuesday, March 05, 2013

3 more poor meetings today

There is no point in expecting high class racing today and today´s 3 cards - over jumps at Exeter and Newcastle, and on the all-weather at Southwell, are all low grade. Paul Nicholls´ strike rate at the moment is excellent and he can score with his only runner of the day, Southfield Theatre (Daryl Jacob) in the novice hurdle over 3 miles at 17.30 CET at Exeter. We also like Abnaki (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) in the novice chase here half an hour earlier. The big race here is the Devon National over 3 3/ 4 miles at 16.30, in which we fancy top weight Sea Saffron (Sue Gardner/ Matt Griffiths); he has been pulled up the last twice - on heavy ground- but this going is much more suitable and he has a good record in these staying chases, including at this track. We were hoping for a big price, but it seems that other people have had the same idea. Matt Griffiths also has a chance on Jeremy Scott´s Josh´s Dreamway in the handicap hurdle at 16.00; he won the race last year and althou gh up in the weights, today´s opposition, although numerous, does not look strong. Presenting Arms (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) could be the main danger.

At Newcastle we are also hoping for two past winners to take the same race races again: Dawn Ride (Micky Hammond/ Joe Colliver) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 16.20 and 2011 winner Categorical (Keith and James Reveley) in the handicap chase at 17.50. The last-named has been below form this season, but has come down a lot in the weights as a result, but so has Railway Dillon (Donald M;cCain/ Jason Maguire) and he looks the main threat. The Reveleys also run dual winner Victor Hewgo in the novice hurdle at 17.20, but he must carry a double penalty, and so we prefer Ballinvarrig (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Indian Castle (McCain/ Maguire), both bumper runners-up last time and now running for the first time over sticks. If they don´t jump well enough, Firth of the Clyde (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) could be the one to take advantage.