Sunday, March 17, 2013

two graded races at Limerick

The ground is certain to be heavy at today´s 3 meetings on turf - at Carlisle in England and at Wexford and Limerick in Ireland. The best racing comes from the last-named track with two graded races. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh can continue their excellent run with Twigline in the mares novice hurdle at 16.25 CET; she fell when looking the likely winner at Sandown last time and today´s opposition does not look strong.

Mullins and Walsh can also take the opening hurdle race with Djakadam, but they have no runner in the other graded race, a mares novice chase over 2 3/4 miles at 17.25. This looks quite open, but we hope that the penalised Noras Fancy (Jimmy and Paddy Mangan) can make up for the family´ s bad luck at Cheltenham. Mullins can also be on the scorecard at Wexford with Security Breach at 15.35 and Supreme Carolina at 17.05, both partnered by Paul Townend. Neither are among the top stars at the stable but could be good enough to win in this company. Best betting race here is the veterans handicap chase at 17.35. Lastoftheleaders (Arthur Moore/ David Casey) is the class act here, but has to concede lots of weight all round, and we just wonder if he can give 27 lbs to last year´s winner Penny´s Bill (Liz Doyle/ Davy Condon), who has shown very little since but is on a very seductive weight as a result.

At Carlisle we are interested in the German-bred Lysino (Chris Grant/ Keith Renwick); a winner at Munich last year for Peter Schiergen, he has been well beaten in his two races so far over hurdles but could possibly show improvement in the novice hurdle here at 15.30. An Irish winner in the St. Patricks Day Handicap Chase over 3 1/4 miles would certainly be appropriate, but hunter-chaser Philson (Stuart Crawford/ Richard Johnson) does not look good enough. This trip will require a lot of stamina, and we shall stick with the proven stayers Posh Bird (Peter Niven/ Henry Brooke) and Dusky Bob (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook) as some of the others are not certain to stay.

The card at Lingfield is very low grade. Tenure (Gary Moore/ George Baker) makes a quick reappearance in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.15 after an easy win at Kempton on Wednesday. He could well win again, but we will take an each-way chance on oldtimer Benandonner (Paddy Butler/ Joe Fanning), who has been totally out of form but ran a bit better last time and is now on his lowest ever rating.