Kempton and Wolverhampton

We are now left with two low level meetings on the all-weather with the maiden races for 3yo´s by far the most interesting events, with runners from some of the top stables. The first division of the mile maiden at 15.45 CET at Kempton could go to Mutafaakir (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) and the second division to Gold Edition (Jeremy Noseda/ Jimmy Fortune), whose team can follow up half an hour later with Furbelow. Gosden sends stable jockey William Buick to Wolverhampton and they should certainly win the maiden race at 18.55 with Fluctuate, who was third of 18 in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket, normally quite a strong race. Buick also partners Uprise for Sir Michael Stoute in the 3yo handicap at 21.25, and we expect this well-bred colt, who has been gelded since his last run in September, to win on his seasonal debut.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Sergeant Troy - Prince Of Passion - Matavia Bay
2. Race: Mutafaakir - Sabre Tooth - Raheeba
3. Race: Gold Edition - Class Win - Bryer
4. Race: Furbelow - Litmus - Catflap
5. Race: Librettela - Danehill Dante - Isdaal
6. Race: Dartford - Dynastic - Spanish Wedding
7. Race: Konstantin - Aldermoor - Ducal
8. Race: Intomist - I See You - Dancheur

Towcester and Windsor abandoned

Both of today´s turf meetings in the U.K. - Towcester (N.H.) this afternoon and Windsor this evening have been abandoned following the recent heavy rain. There are likely to be more abandonments in the next few days, with Exeter tomorrow and Ascot´s first flat fixture of the year on Wednesday also under threat.

Only Ludlow and Navan

With Wetherby abandoned, the low level N.H. meeting at Ludlow is now the only British fixture today. We are hoping for a German-bred double here with Aviso (David Evans/ Sam Thomas) at 15.10 CET and Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann), also partnered by Sam Thomas at 16.50. We are especially keen on the latter, a half-brother to Samum & co., and any more rain would further improve his chances.

The Irish flat racing at Navan is much more interesting, and the listed Salsabil Stakes for 3yo fillies at 16.25 - worth more than most German group races- has a good line- up headed by the unbeaten Cleofilia (Jim Bolger /Kevin Manning) and Kissed (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) as well as runners trained by Dermot Weld, Kevin Prendergast and Jessica Harrington. With the O´Brien 3yo´s currently winning all over, we expect Kissed, a daughter of Galileo who cost almost a million pounds at auction, to continue the stable´s winning run. The O´Brien´s have more good chances today and we expect them also to take the 3yo conditions race at 18.05 with Athens.

Sandown today

Of the 5 U.K. meetings today, Sandown has by far the best card. It marks the official end of the N.H. season and the handicap chase over almost 3 3/4 miles at 16.10 CET. now known as the betfred Gold Cup, is the last big jumps race of the season in the U.K. With 20 runners this is wide open, although Le Beau Bai (Richard Lee/ Jamie Moore) is likely to start a warm favourite. The nonstop rain is very much in his favour and he won the Welsh Grand National under these conditions. However he is handicapped to the hilt and in our view is no great value at the likely price. We shall take as our 4 against the field Paul Nicholl´s pair, the talented but moody top-weight Tidal Bay (Daryl Jacob) and the lightly-weighted Aldertune (Nick Scholfield), as well as West End Rocker (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) and Irish hope Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/ Jason Maguire), both of whom ran in the Grand National but did not get very far.

The opening 4yo handicap hurdle at 14.30 is another very open race. Sadlers Risk (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) is the class act here. but has a huge weight. Hardly any of the runners has form on ground as heavy as this, which makes things even more difficult. Hobbs and Johnson have another chance in the following handicap hurdle at 15.00 with German-bred Big Easy, but this is another tough event. The Grade Two Celebration Chase at 15.35 looks between Somersby (Henrietta Knight( Dominic Elsworth) and Wishfull Thinking (Hobbs/ Johnson) but we also fancy French Opera (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler), who won the race last year.

The rest of the card consists of 4 flat races, including two group races. Poet (Clive Cox/ Ryan Moore) has been heavily backed for the Gordon Richards Stakes at 16.45 on the grounds that he will handle the heavy going best, and this might well be the case. The Classic Trial at 17.15 is tricky and any of the 4 runners could win it.

bad weather continues

the bad weather continues in Britain and Ireland with heavy rain and strong winds and with them big problems for racing. Punchestown was forced to cancel its two chases yesterday and will do so again today. They will probably now be staged (weather permitting!) on Saturday, the last day of the meeting. Today´s card of 5 races now starts at 17.50 CET.
This evening´s N.H. meeting at Uttoxeter has been abandoned, and Beverley this afternoon has called for a further inspection and looks doubtful. Leicester has already cancelled its Saturday fixture and further losses seem likely.

Punchestown Festival: second day

the Punchestown Festival continues with another strong card, but the poor weather and very testing ground are a problem. Once again it is a late afternoon meeting, with the first race at 16.40 CET. The Grade One novice hurdle at 17.55 looks quite open, but we expect Willie Mullins to dominate here; he has 3 runners with Ruby Walsh partnering Sous les Cieux, equipped with blinkers for the first time.

He is trying today´s trip of 3 miles for the first time, and was beaten almost 25 lengths at Cheltenham, but is still our selection. Stable companions Marasonnien (Paul Townend) and Vesper Bell (David Casey) could also run well, but Ipsos du Berlais (Noel Meade/ Davy Russell) looks the main danger.

The Punchestown Gold Cup at 18.30 is the best race of the day and we expect Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh to complete a double here with Quel Esprit. After 3 easy wins on heavy ground, he was fancied for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, but then missed that race, while most of today´s opponents ran at the meeting. Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) did best there, finishing fourth in the Ryanair with Rubi Light (Robert Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) fifth and German-bred Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Barry Geraghty) pulled up. Noble Prince won´t like today´s going, but the other two should finish in the money.

The bumper at 19.05 is the other Grade One event. This looks extremely tricky. Champagne Fever (Wiliie and Paddy Mullins) made all to win the equivalent race at Cheltenham from New Years Eve (John Ferguson/ Robbie McNamara), but we are not certain that this form will be confirmed. The unbeaten Venture Capital (Philip Fenton/ Alan Berry) and Fickle Fortune (Noel Meade/ Nina Carberry) are just two of several dangers.

Pontefract and Hexham

Only two meetings this afternoon, flat racing at Pontefract and over jumps at Hexham. Easily the most interesting event is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.15 CET at Pontefract, which looks wide open with 17 runners. Normally we would fancy Docofthebay (Scott Dixon/ Robert Winston), who ran really well at Doncaster, but the recent rain is not in his favour and we expect Nazri (David Nicholls/ Kieren Fallon) to finish in front of him this time.

Shropshire (Charlie Hills/ Matthew Lawson) looks dangerous on his Kempton form, but the outside draw is a problem, while Seal Rock (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neil), expected to go places this season. may need the race. The logical winner for us is Mirza (Rae Guest/ William Carson), who won in good style at Newbury on Friday over 5 furlongs, but is equally effective ovr this trip and can follow up under a 6 lbs penalty. The other race of interest here is the marathon handicap at 16.45, at almost 2 3/4 miles one of the longest flat races in the U.K. Most of the runners have been active over jumps, and our choice is Bocamix (Tony Crooki/ Kieren Fallon), a winner twice over hurdles at Southwell this year, but Irish raider Mutiska (JCHayden/ Silvestre de Sousa) also looks threatening.

The going at Hexham will be very testing and punters should tread warily. Donald McCain usually does well here and his Constant Contact (Jason Maguire) looks the best bet on the card in the novice hurdle at 16.30. He won´t pay much though, and at the likely odds Prosecco (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) may be a better bet in the 2 mile handicap chase half an hour later.

With the days getting longer, evening racing has now arrived and there are 3 meetings this evening, at Windsor on the flat, and at Ffos Las in Wales and Cork in Ireland over jumps.

Excelebration for O´Brien

Excelebration, who won the German 2,000 Guineas last season and went on to become the second-best 3yo miler in Europe has been sold to Coolmore and has his first race for his new connections in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes at 17.20 CET at the Curragh today. Now trained by Aidan O´Brien and ridden by son Joseph, he has to give 6lbs away today, but should still win easily. His strongest opponent could be Beacon Lodge (David Nicholls/ Fran Berry), but he is well held on 2011 form, and it would be no huge surprise to see O´Brien´s other runner Windsor Palace (Seamus Heffernan) run into the money as well.
The O´Briens can also take the main supporting feature, the listed Loughbrown Stakes over 7 furlongs for 3yos at 16.50, with Nephrite, who is still unbeaten and quoted at 20-1 for the 2,000 Guineas. He is not the stable´s main hope for that classic, but it will be surprising if he is beaten today, and again the stable´s second string Requisition could be placed.
The other listed race at the Curragh at 15.50 should go to Zaminast (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) who at these weights can defeat Coolmore´s Chrysanthemum (David Wachman/Wayne Lordan), penalised for winning a group race last month.

Betting forecast at Curragh:
1. Race: Infanta Branca - Leitir Mor - Dorothy Parker
2. Race: Zaminast - Chrysanthemum - Vivacious Vivienne
3. Race: Cnocan Diva - Luan Cincise - Foot Soldier
4. Race: Nephrite - Bible Black - Tough As Nails
5. Race: Excelebration - Beacon Lodge - Croisultan
6. Race: Ansaab - Midnight Music - Sharalam
7. Race: Marchese Marconi - Show Court - Ebazan
8. Race: Giant`S Quest - Midnight Soprano - Face Value

Scottish Grand National at Ayr

Ayr stages its best jumps meeting of the year today, with the Scottish Grand National at 16.25 CET as the main feature. Top-weight Junior (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is the only runner who also took part at Aintree, fallitng at the second; that probably took little out of him, but we do not fancy him today. Paul eNicholls of course trained last week´s winner and has a chance of completing the double with Harry the Viking (Ruby Walsh), one runner guaranteed to stay the 4 miles trip, as he was runner-up over the distance Cheltenham. Portrait King (Maurice Phelan/ Denis O`Regan) is another who gets the trip, having won the Eider Chase, whileee Knockara Beau (George Charlton/ Jan Faltejsek), 6th in the Gold Cup, and Fruity O´Rooney (Gary and Jamie Moore) also ran well at the Festival. With 24 runners anything can happen, but our suggestion is course specialist Merigo (Andrew Parker/ Timmy Murphy), who won the race in 2010 and was runner-up last year.
The Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15.50, despite its name, is only a handicap but is another very open race, with 2 runners each from the Nicky Henderson and Donald McCain stables, as well as Edgardo Sol (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who won over fences last week at Aintree, and the in-form Raya Star (Alan King/ Robert Thornton). However we like German-bred Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Richard Johnson), and two more German-breds that could run well are Quicuyo and Bocciani, who are both engaged in the 2 mile handicap chase at 17.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grandioso - Enfant De Lune - Outrageous Request
2. Race: Pacha Du Polder - Lidar - Pure Faith
3. Race: Edgardo Sol - Tetlami - Charm School
4. Race: Harry The Viking - Merigo - Portrait King
5. Race: Arctic Court - Cloudy Too - American Trilogy
6. Race: Doeslessthanme - Anquetta - Kings Grey
7. Race: No Loose Change - Red Harbour - Loose Preformer
8. Race: River Maigue - Picture Post - Green Flag

classic trials at Newbury

today´s Newbury card is one of the best of the season so far, but unfortunately the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at 16.10 CET, one of the best trials for the 2,000 Guineas and won last year by Frankel, has cut up badly. With Roger
Charlton´s Top Offer and Sir Michael Stoute´s Tales of Grimm both withdrawn, there are now only 5 runners, with Bronterre /Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs) and Caspar Nestcher (Alan McCabe/ Shane Kelly) standing out by miles, we prefer the former, whose stable is already in top form. Hannon can also take the fillies equivalent race at 15.35 with Best Terms (Ryan Moore), who won her first 4 races last term before finishing fifth when favourite for the Cheveley Park. She can get back on the winning trail here. Moonstone Magic (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), a very easy winner of a minor race at Leicester last week, is taking a huge leap in class but still looks next best.
The two maiden races for 3yo´s on the Newbury card have very strong fields, with some well-bred performers from top stables entered. Some of them could well turn out to be better in the long run than those enetred in the group races today. Pride of place here goes to Noble Mission (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), an own brother to Frankel, who runs at 13.30.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Noble Mission - Ibtahaj - Cappielow Park
2. Race: Arctic Cosmos - Harris Tweed - Bridge Of Gold
3. Race: Best Terms - Fillionaire - Moonstone Magic
4. Race: Bronterre - Caspar Netscher - Spiritual Star
5. Race: Captain Bertie - Fury - Mull Of Killough
6. Race: Minimise Risk - Uriah Heep - Michelangelo
7. Race: Forest Row - Lucanin - Border Legend
8. Race: Reachforthebucks - Stand To Reason - Ashiri

Craven Stakes at Newmarket

The Craven Stakes for 3yo´s over a mile at 17.10 CET is the big race at Newmarket today and has always been a reliable early classic guide. With 13 runners, all winners and 3 of them still unbeaten, it may look an open affair, but in fact Much Improved (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon) is expected tp start a red-hot favourite. Third in the Dewhurst Stakes last autumn, the Lawman colt has been very heavily backed for the 2,000 Guineas and if thi support is to be justified then he should win today. Although the classic generation remain in focus, the older horses also have their chance today with two listed races, the Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.35 and the Earl of Sefton over 9 furlongs at 17.45. Our selections are Genki (Roger Charlton/ George Baker) and Twice Over (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tassel - Graphic Guest - Mrs Warren
2. Race: Mariner`s Cross - Gold Edition - Tenure
3. Race: Mickdaam - Entifaadha - Coupe De Ville
4. Race: Genki - Sirius Prospect - Jimmy Styles
5. Race: Most Improved - Trumpet Major - Born To Surprise
6. Race: Twice Over - Tazahum - Beatrice Aurore
7. Race: Salacia - Isatis - Eltiqaa
8. Race: Martin Chuzzlewit - Main Sequence - Aazif

Craven meeting starts at Newmarket

Most racing people regard the Craven meeting, which starts today at Newmarket, as the proper start of the flat season, and today´s card sees not only most of the leading Newmarket trainers saddling runners, but also a strong challenge both from Yorkshire and from the Lambourn area. 7 of today´s 8 races are restricted to 3yo´s, so the emphasis on future prospects could hardly be more obvious.

With very little recent form to go on, this also makes things difficult for punters, and to be honest, today´s races are better just watched. Main feature is the Group Three Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs for fillies at 17.10 CET, a major 1,000 Guineas trial, although it would be surprising of any of today´s runners were to go on to win the classic. Nayarra (Mick Channon/ Martin Dwyer) was the only runner to win a Group One last year, but that was in Italy and she carries a penalty for so doing. Channon also saddles Muaamara (Sam Hitchcott) as well as Lady Gorgeous (Martin Harley). Godolphin´s Mahmood al Zarooni has two runners. Pimpernel (Frankie Dettori) and Minidress (Mikael Barzalona); while Frankie presumably rides the more fancied runner, we have not forgotten Pimpernel´s feeble performance last time in Dubai. Cheveley Park´s two runners Regal Realm (Jeremy Noseda/ Jimmy Fortune) and Starscope (John Gosden/ William Buick) are both highly regarded, but in an open race we go for the exposed but tough and consistent Lily´s Angel (Richatd Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), whose trainer/ jockey combination won the race last year.

The most valuable race on the card is the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Sprint over 6 furlongs at 16.00. Samitar (Channon/ Jamie Spencer) won a valuable sales here race last autumn over 7 furlongs and was also only beaten a head in a Group One over a mile; now she comes back in trip and also races against colts, the best of whom might be Balty Boys (Charlie and Michael Hills). Valbchek (Noseda/ Ryan Moore) started at odds-on for his debut on the all-weather and won with the greatest of ease; obviously this is a much better race, but he could still go well.

The European Free Handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.35 is no longer as significant as used to be the case, but Zumbi (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Hazaz (Clive Brittain/ Brett Doyle) are our two main candidates here. However it is more than likely that the races on the undercard may throw up more classic pointers, so we repeat that it probably more profitable to watch and analyse these races than to bet on them.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Qannaas - Periphery - Poole Harbour
2. Race: Baileys Jubilee - Dreamy Ciara - Lucky Beggar
3. Race: Samitar - Balty Boys - Valbchek
4. Race: Zumbi - Redact - Telwaar
5. Race: Russelliana - Pimpernel - Starscope
6. Race: Jungle Beat - Perennial - Producer
7. Race: Shantaram - All That Rules - Model Pupil
8. Race: Es Que Love - Top Cop - Heeraat

3 poor meetings today

N.H. racing today at Exeter and Kempton and all-weather flat racing at Southwell, but all 3 meetings are very low level.
Paul Nicholls is ending the jumps season with a flourish and can take the first 2 races at Exeter with the penalised Themilanhorse (Harry Derham) at 15.30 CET and Oscarslad (Daryl Jacob) at 16.00, although Imperial Circus (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) could be a danger in the latter event.

In any case we think that the Hobbs/ Johnson team has a good chance of winning the marathon chase at 16.30 with top-weight Fairoak Lad, who made a satisfactory comeback last month after 17 months off and is well handicapped on his old form.

Lady Herries does not have many runners over jumps, but German-bred Geneva Geyser (Leighton Aspell) looked useful when winning 3 races over sticks last summer; he has not been seen since he finished tailed off in October, but reappears in the handicap hurdle at 17.50 at Kempton. Assuming he is back to form, he has as good a chance as any in this large field, especially as he will get the fast ground he needs. We also like Alison Thorpe´s lightly-raced filly Dark Spirit off bottom-weight in the 4yo handicap hurdle here at 17.20.

The card at Southwell is pretty awful, but CD specialist Punching (Conor Dore/ Hayley Turner) could take the 6 furlongs seller at 16.40. He ran out an easy winner of a similar race here a week ago with 3 of these runners behind and meets them all on similar terms.

Windsor and Wolverhampton

Windsor starts its popular Monday evening cards next week, but the track opens today for the new season with an afternoon meeting. The card opens with a race for 2yo maidens followed by 4 races for 3yo´s. By far the most interesting events are the two maiden races over 10 furlongs, which have runners from leading trainers Sir Michael Stoute, Sir Henry Cecil, John Gosden, Roger Charlton, Andrew Balding et al. Some of these are very well bred, but the most interesting pedigree is that of Aegaeus (Ed Dunlop/ George Baker) in the first division at 16.30 CET, who is by Monsun out of multiple classic and Group One winner Ouija Board. In the second division, we believe that the two unraced runners, fillies trained by Cecil and Stoute respectively, will come out on top, as those that have run have not shown much. The card closes with 3 very tricky handicaps, wIth the mile race at 17.30 the best betting race on the card. Starwatch (John Bridger/ Sean Levey) was much improved in the second half of last season, and won 5 of his last 6 races, 4 of them with this jockey, while course specialist Uncle Fred (Patrick Chamings/ Fergus Sweeney) won this race last year, but our choice is top-weight Benadonner (Mike Murphy/ Neil Callan), who is dropping in grade here and has been given a real chance by the handicapper.

Windsor - betting forecast:
1. Race: Meringue Pie - Regal Dan - Ouzinkie
2. Race: Impel - Little China - Pettochside
3. Race: Masters Club - Somemothersdohavem - Priestley`S Reward
4. Race: Rosslyn Castle - Ace Of Valhalla - Scottish Vespers
5. Race: Falkland - Savida - Man Of Plenty
6. Race: Zafeen`S Pearl - Moone`S My Name - Alhaban
7. Race: Style And Panache - Escape To Glory - Avonmore Star
8. Race: Shalambar - Honourable Knight - Reset City



The all-weather racing at Wolverhampton is pretty dreary, but Ed Dunlop can perhaps land an across-the-card 3yo maiden double with Sir Maximilian (Jamie Spencer) at 15.45. Beau Duke (Balding/ Liam Keniry) can take the other maiden, over an extended mile at 16.45, while Pittodrie Star (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who ran well last week at Musselburgh and also has good all-weather form to his credit, can take the stayers handicap at 16.15.

Wolverhampton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Poker Hospital - Guava - Fugitive Motel
2. Race: Pashan Garh - Sir Maximilian - Going French
3. Race: Pittodrie Star - Al Khawaneej - Covert Decree
4. Race: Beau Duke - Sareeah - Main Line
5. Race: Love Your Looks - Frosty Friday - Cairanne
6. Race: My Boy Ginger - Bursting Bubbles - Always Eager
7. Race: By Implication - Cwmni - So Is She

Classic trials in France

Longchamp today stages the most important trials for the two French Guineas races, the Poules d´Essai. All eyes will be on Dabarsim (Christophe Ferland/ Christophe Soumillon), who makes his reappearence in the Prix de Fontainebleau at 16.10 CET. The colt was unbeaten in 5 starts last year and was officially rated the joint-best 2yo in Europe as well as voted Horse of the Year in France; he is owned by onextwo boss Simon Springer and is reported to have done very well over the winter, in which case he should win today. So Fast (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) look his most serious opponent, but finished twice behind him in 2011 and in our view will do so again. Dragon Pulse (Mikl Delzangles/ Gergory Benoist), trained in Ireland last year, and Historic Find (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) are next best.

The fillies race, the Prix de la Grotte at 15.40, looks much more open. Zentenda (Head/ Peslier) is the likely favourite after finishing third in the Marcel Boussac, but Beauty Parlour /Elie Lellouche/ Soumillon) is a big danger after winning both of her 2011 starts very easily, both at Saint-Cloud. Fabre has supplemented all-weather winner Woven Lace (Guyon), but she will need to show tremendous improvement - by no means impossible with this trainer, who has a good record in this race- while we shall support Mandista (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire), an easy winner of her only start last year and whose stable is in great form. She can complete a successful day for her owner-breeder the Aga Khan.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Last Train - Criel - Great Link
2. Race: Everett - In For A Penny - Around The Moon
3. Race: Amerique - La Arenosa - Orion Moon
4. Race: Speedy Crown - Inside Man - Kardo
5. Race: Beauty Parlour - Zantenda - Mandistana
6. Race: Dabirsim - Sofast - Coup de Theatre
7. Race: Footstepsinthecity - Antalia - Senatorside
8. Race: Riwan - Metal Precieux - Louve Rose

Classic trials in Ireland

The Grand National meeting is now finished, and although we still have some big jumps meetings to come -notably Punchestown- thoughts are now turning to the flat and especially to the classic races for 3yo´s which are only a few weeks away. Both Leopardstown in Ireland and Longchamp in France stage major classic trials today, while in the U.K. there are only two modest N.H. fixtures at Market Rasen and Ffos Las.

There are only 4 runners in the 2000 Guineas Trial at 15.55 CET at Leopardstown, but it could still be an informative race. Aidan O´Brien saddles two of them, with Furner´s Green, ridden by his son Joseph, the main hope following his good second place to Light Heavy (runs later) when clearly in need of the race. Akeed Wafi (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh) is an obvious danger, while debutant Tiger at Heart (Jim Bolger/ KEvin Manning) comes from a stable which is always dangerous at this meeting.

The same trainers look like dominating proceedings throughout, and Aidan O´Brien, who has won the 1,000 Guineas trial 5 times this century, now saddles 4 in the latest edition at 17.00. Up, ridden by Joseph, is his main contender; although suprisingly beaten at odds-on on her seasonal debut in a false run race at Dundalk, her fourth place last November at the Breeders Cup looks the best form. Fire Lily ended last season by running up in the Lowther, Moyglare and Marcel Boussac, 3 of the best European events for 2yo fillies and is clearly a threat; she is trained by David Wachman, but is owned by the same Coolmore syndicate as O´Brien´s runners. The Aga Khan´s Rubina (Oxx/ Murtagh) is held by Fire Lily on 2011 form but looks the type to improve.

The Ballysax Stakes over 10 furlongs at 17.35 is one of the best early season Derby trials, and O´Brien has 3 runners here, with Joseph riding the smart David LIvingston. However as a Group Two winner he has to concede 5 lbs all round, and we are not sure that he can give the weight to Light Heavy (Bolger/ Manning), conqueror of Furner´s Green last time, and Call to Battle (John Oxx/ Murtagh) who won his two final races in 2011, including here over 9 furlongs and looks a smart staying prospect.

The other significant race here is the listed Heritage Stakes over a mile at 16.25, which sees the 2012 debut of course specialist Famous Name (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). He has no fewer than 9 course victories to his credit, including this event twice, and should win again, but he faces strong opposition from the Aga Khan´s lightly-raced Sharestan (Oxx/ Murtagh) who won the Irish Lincolnshire last time in the style of a horse who is going to make an impact in top company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Forester - Move To Strike - Lucked Out
2. Race: Furner`s Green - Akeed Wafi - Tiger At Heart
3. Race: Famous Name - Sharestan - Northgate
4. Race: Fire Lily - Up - Rubina
5. Race: David Livingston - Light Heavy - Call To Battle
6. Race: Olfa - Bankroll - Ondeafears
7. Race: Harrison`S Cave - Rising Wind - Ri An Domhnaigh

Grand National

The Grand National, to be run at 17.15 CET today over 4 1/2 miles at Aintree, remains the most famous horse race on the world and 500 million TV viewers are expected to watch the race this afternoon. 40 runners, and to be honest a case can be made for all of them and equally, there are also arguments against them all. We will start at the top- Synchronised (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) has top weight and is likely to start favourite. He won the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, obviously the best form in the race, and had previously taken the Lexus Chase, last season the Welsh Grand National and in 2010 the Midlands Grand National. Plenty of people say he is the wrong type to win the race - too small and not a good enough jumper - but his record speaks for itself and for us he is the most likely winner. No Gold Cup winner has taken the same season´s National since Golden Miller in 1934, and no top weight has won since Red Rum in 1974 - but these records are there to be broken.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) won the race last year and tries again with 10 lbs more weight. The last horse to win twice was the great Red Rum, who was of course trained by McCain´s father; Ballabriggs has clearly been trained with just this one race in mind - but that of course applies to plenty of the others. McCain also saddles Weird Al (Timmy Murphy) but his recent form is not inspiring, while O´Neill has two more runners, both also owned by JP McManus: Arbor Supreme (Mark Walsh) and Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon), of which the latter certainly has a chance after his Kim Muir win at Cheltenham. Surprisingly, another Paul Nicholls nor Nicky Henderson, the two leading British N.H. traners, have ever won the race. They are now represented by Neptune Collonges (Daryl Jacob) and Shakalakaboomboom (Barry Geraghty) respectively and both have their admirers. The Pipe stable knows how to win, and Junior (Tom Scudamore). another small horse, who has also won at Royal Ascot (!) also comes into the reckoning.

Previous form in the race is always a huge advantage (as we saw again yesterday) and therefore Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), the 2009 winner, and State of Play (Noel Fehily), one of 3 runners trained by Evan Williams, must be considered. State of Play, out of a German mare, has an amazing record here - he was 4th in Mon Mome´s race, 3rd in 2010 and 4th again last year in fact the last two Grand Nationals have been his last two races. The Irish have done very well in this race in recent years and there are 15 of them running today. Dessie Hughes has 4 runners, with 13yo Black Appalachi (Denis O´Regan), having the best chance in our view, and Willie Mullins has 3 with Ruby Walsh on On His Own. Ruby could also have ridden his father´s Seabass, who will now by partnered by his sister Katie. Seabass is the unknown quantity here - he has won his last 6 races - twice ridden by Katie - but nobody -including his opiniated trainer Ted- seems to have any idea whether he wi ll get the trip or not.

Ted Walsh junior recently married Nina Carberry, and she rides Organizedconfusion for her uncle Arthur Moore, who won the Irish Grand National a year ago. Meanwhile brother Paul Carberry rides Chicago Grey for Gordon Elliott, another good Irish chance. Obviously a win for one of the girls would be the best publicity ever and is by no means impossible. We have mentioned 15 runners, but the race is so open that it is more than likely that none of them will be placed - but for the record our 4 against the field are Synchronised, Neptune Collonges, Junior and Black Appalachi.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Simonsig - Super Duty - Molotof
2. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Australia Day - Toubab
3. Race: Oscar Whisky - Rock On Ruby - Zarkandar
4. Race: Cannington Brook - Marufo - Chapoturgeon
5. Race: Synchronised - Junior - Giles Cross
6. Race: Paintball - Dream Esteem - Kazlian
7. Race: Population - Minella Forfitness - Ifyousayso

Aintree Grand National meeting: second day

The Grand National meeting continues today with some very competitive racing and mainly large fields. The rain which was forecast has still not arrived, and it is expected that they will water. Fast ground will certainly suit Albertas Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) in the Grade One Melling Chase at 16.05. He had a hard race at Cheltenham when a close second in the Ryanair but he is very tough and consistent and racing over his best distance here; he won the race in 2010 and was runner-up last year, in the process finishing well in front of several of these opponents. The one he has to beat is clearly Finians Rainbow (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who also had a hard race at the Festival when running out a narrow and rather lucky winner of the Champion Chase. That was over 2 miles, and the extra half-mile here could be a problem. Irish hope Forpadytheplasterer (Tom Cooper/ Bryan Cooper) has not won for 3 years but has repeatedly been placed - including when runner-up here in 2010, and could well run into a place again, and so could Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who fell in the Champion but whose connections had a good winner here yesterday. However Albertas Run is for us the logical winner.

McCoy also has a good chance of landing the opening novice hurdle at 15.00 on Nicky Henderson´s Darlan, who should hold his stable companions Captain Conan (Geraghty) and Oscara Dara (David Bass), but will probably find Prospect Wells (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who did not finish far behind him at Cheltenham, a tougher nut to crack. Two horses with very interesting German pedigrees also run in this event, Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/Noel Fehily) - a half-brother to Samum- and Toughness Danon (Brendan Powell/ Sam Twiston-Davies). Both should be capable of winning decent races over hurdles, but possibly not this one.

There are quite a few German-breds running today and we hope to see Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Will Kennedy) run well at big price in the Topham Chase, a 2 mile 5 furlongs handicap chase at 16.40 which is the big betting race on the card. Experience of the track is always a big advantage here, so Always Waining (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) - who has won this race twice - and Frankie Figg (Nicholls/ Walsh) are also on the short list. The closely related Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Ryan Mania), in the handicap hurdle at 17.50, and Lovcen (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the Grade One novice hurdle at 17.15 are other German-breds to keep an eye on.

Aintree Grand National meeting: first day

there are 5 meetings today, but only one of them really counts- Aintree, where it is the first day of the Grand National meeting. In terms of quality this meeting now equals the Cheltenham Festival and numerous winners and also-rans from the Cotswolds are running again here. The very first race, the Grade One Liverpool Hurdle over 3 miles, at 15.00 CET, is one of the highlights of the week, starring Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who is going for an unprecedented 17th successive win. He has won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham for the past 4 years and is now going for his 4th win here, and in theory at least he looks a certainty, having already beaten most of these opponents. On official ratings, he has 13 lbs in hand and it will be the shock of the meeting if he fails today. Nicholls saddles two more runners, Poungach (Daryl Jacob) and Tidal Bay (Nick Scholfield), and they could both run into the money, but Smad Place (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), third at Cheltenham, looks the most likely candidate for second place.

The 4yo hurdle half an hour later features several of the principals from the Triumph Hurdle, including the 33-1 winner Countrywide Flame (Jihn Quinn/ Dougie Costello), as well as Grumeti (King/ Thornton), Dodging Bullets (Nicholls/ Jacob) and Sadlers Risk (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who finished 3rd, 4th and 6th, while Pearl Swan (Nicholls/ Walsh) well at the last and was not far away at the time. In theory Countrywide Flame should score again, but we are dubious about the Triumph form and expect Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Pearl Swan all to reverse the placings, while German-bred Lyvius (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), a winner at Hamburg and Baden-Baden in 2011, is a newcomer to this grade who could well run a big race.

The Betfred Bowl over 3 miles 1 furlong at 16.05 is another race with an excellent field, including several who ran in the Gold Cup, where Burton Port (Henderson/ Tony McCoy) ran on into fourth, Carruthers was beaten out of sight, Diamond Harry was pulled up and What a Friend (Nicholls/ Walsh) fell early on. Of this quartet we definitely prefer What a Friend, who is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and won this race in 2010. Nacarat (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) won last year, but this renewal looks much stronger. Riverside Theatre (Henderson/ Geraghty) is the likely favourite after winning the Ryanair Chase, where Medermit was a close third, but neither is proven at this distance. Hunt Ball (Kieran Burke/ Scholfield) would be a very popular winner for small connections after winning 7 of his last 8 races and going up an incredible 86 lbs in the ratings, but we are sceptical. Plenty of questions will be answered here, but What a Friend look the most reliable choice.

The fourth Grade One race is the novice chase at 17.50, which has the weakest field of the day. Al Ferof (Nicholls/ Walsh) was below form at Cheltenham, and finished behind Menorah (Hobbs/ Johnson), but we expect him to score here, possibly at the main expense of the mare Pepite Rose (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman).

Aintree Grand National meeting: first day

there are 5 meetings today, but only one of them really counts- Aintree, where it is the first day of the Grand National meeting. In terms of quality this meeting now equals the Cheltenham Festival and numerous winners and also-rans from the Cotswolds are running again here.
The very first race, the Grade One Liverpool Hurdle over 3 miles, at 15.00 CET, is one of the highlights of the week, starring Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who is going for an unprecedented 17th successive win. He has won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham for the past 4 years and is now going for his 4th win here, and in theory at least he looks a certainty, having already beaten most of these opponents. On official ratings, he has 13 lbs in hand and it will be the shock of the meeting if he fails today. Nicholls saddles two more runners, Poungach (Daryl Jacob) and Tidal Bay (Nick Scholfield), and they could both run into the money, but Smad Place (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), third at Cheltenham, looks the most likely candidate for second place.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Buck`S - Smad Place - Tidal Bay
2. Race: Grumeti - Countrywide Flame - Pearl Swan
3. Race: Riverside Theatre - Burton Port - Medermit
4. Race: Gwanako - My Way De Solzen - Cloudy Lane
5. Race: Edgardo Sol - Tanks For That - Kumbeshwar
6. Race: Al Ferof - Menorah - Pepite Rose
7. Race: Gullinbursti - Son Of Flicka - Cape Tribulation

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, all of them flat racing and 3 of them on the all-weather. Easily the best card is at Nottingham, where the main feature is the listed race over 1 3/4 miles at 16.40 CET, which has attracted a strong field. Dandino (Kieren Fallon), now trained by James Fanshawe, is top-rated, but his form is a bit in-and-out, including an unplaced effort at Hoppegarten behind Danedream. German-bred Zuider Zee (John Gosden/ William Buick) finished 2011 by winning the November Handicap, but this is a step up in class. The 4yo´s Eternal Heart (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), Solar Sky (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Parlour Games (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) are also moving up but certainly look as if they are up to this grade. This is a very open affair and we give a tentative vote to Eternal Heart, who stayed on well when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and whose stable continues in excellent form.

The conditions race over 5 furlongs at 15.40 also has some group-class entries and we fancy here the top-weight Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Buick). Theoretically he should not defeat Triple Aspect (Jeremy Gask/ Liam Jones) at these weights, but we feel that he can improve still further. Buick has another good chance on top-weight Robemaker (Gosden) in the mile handicap at 18.10. but he has little in hand of Oriental Scot (Willie Jarvis/ Dettori), based on their form together at Haydock last September.

The other turf meeting is at Catterick, where we think that top-weight Chilly Filly (/Brian Ellison/ Barry McHugh) is the safest option in a very open 1 1/2 mile handicap16.30. Of the all-weather races today, the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 17.20 at Lingfield could be the most interesting, with runners from some of the top stables. Dartford (Gosden/ Robert Havlin) has a fitness advantage and could be the solution.

Nottingham - betting forecast:
1. Race: Dreamy Ciara - Black Monk - Yes Two
2. Race: Jonny Mudball - Dinkum Diamond - Triple Aspect
3. Race: Lesotho - Red Senor - Personal Touch
4. Race: Dandino - Blue Bajan - Solar Sky
5. Race: Moataz - It`s A Girl Thing - Spirit Na Heireann
6. Race: Joyful Spirit - Renegotiate - Sheila`S Buddy
7. Race: Robemaker - Neutrafa - Prince Of Burma
8. Race: Brailsford - The Giving Tree - Drummond

Fairyhouse: third and final day

Another strong card on the final day of the Fairyhouse Easter Festival which has a late start at 17.00 CET. The leading actors in the opening Grade Three 4yo hurdle all ran in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, in which Edeymi (Tony Martin/ Andrew Lynch) finished an excellent second of 24, with Arnaud (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) a close fifth and Sportsmaster (Edward O´Grady/ Tony McCoy) and Gorgeous Sixty (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) both more than 40 lengths behind. We see no reason to doubt the reliability of this form and expect Edeymi to win today. Half an hour later the Grade Three mares chase also feature several runners that have met this year. Belle Brook (M. Cullen/ Paul Townend) fell last time when still leading in a Limerick event in which several of the opponents would have finished behind her. If she stays on her feet, she must have a good chance, but we prefer Shop DJ (Peter Fahey/ Davy Russell) who is extremely consistent and ran a good race at Cheltenham when a close fifth to Quevega.

There follow two valuable handicaps, in both of which we expect to see the colours of leading owner JP McManus - already enjoying a successful meeting - victorious. He has 5 runners in the 2 mile hurdle race at 18.00 with McCoy riding the lightly-raced The Way we Were for Edward O´Grady. The danger could be the 4yo filly Ozeta (Nicky Henderson/ David Casey) in the same colours, who runs off an extremely low weight.

McManus has 3 of the 10 runners in the 2 mile 1 furlong chase at 18.30 and we think McCoy has made the right choice again; he partners German-bred Shot from the Hip, a Monsun gelding who has been running well in good company. Top-weight Bellvano (Nicky Henderson/ Paul Carberry) is also German-bred and won at Cheltenham, but faces a stiff task here.

U.K. action today

othere is plenty of action in the U.K. today, with 3 flat meetings and four National Hunt, but none at a very high level. Prize-money at Yarmouth is lousy, but that has not stopped several of the top Newmarket stables having runners, including Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden, Roger Varian and Michael Bell. Mahmood al Zarooni sends out four Godolphin runners and we would not be surprised to Frankie Dettori to land a hat-trick on Periphery at 15.25 CET, Grizzle at 17.10 and Zaeem at 17.45.
Best race at Warwick is the conditions event over 6 furlongs at 16.20. Mac´s Power (James Fanshawe/ Kieren Fallon) and New Planet (John Quinn/ Tom Queally) stand out on ratings here and should dominate the finish, with slight preference for the former.
At Redcar, the handicap over the straight mile at 16.45 is the main event. Aquarian Spirit (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) won it last year and could go close again, but we prefer 9yo CD specialist Collateral Damage (Tim Easterby/ David Allan).
Over jumps, there is a competitive hurdle handicap at 17.35 at Chepstow. Pantxoa (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson)is consistent but rarely wins, while lightly raced Oscar Davy (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) will probably start favourite after an easy win at Fontwell. We also give a chance to German-bred Salontyre (Bernard Llewellyn/ RJ Williams) and Numide (Rod Millman/ Paddy Brennan), who are less consistent but certainly capable enough on their day.
Sue Smith has hit form with a vengeance. and we expect her Daldini (Jonathan England) to run well off bottom-weight in the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.40 at Huntingdon. Ex-German The Lemonpie (Brendan Powell/ Stephen O´Donovan) is very modest, but connections have found what is possibly the weakest race of the day for him, the novice handicap hurdle at 17.50 at Plumpton, and he must have a chance in this very poor company.

Betting forecast Yarmouth:
1. Race: Periphery - Debating Society - Mutasadder
2. Race: Patriotic - Tilsworth Glenboy - Afkar
3. Race: Spin Again - Viking Rose - Joe Le Taxi
4. Race: Grizzle - Fourth Of June - The Noble Ord
5. Race: Zaeem - Samba King - Bonnet De Douche
6. Race: Junket - Glass Mountain - Spin Cast
7. Race: Scatter Dice - Dalmo - Chankillo

Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

the Irish Grand National is the centrepiece of the big Fairyhouse Easter meeting, and today´s renewal at 17.50 CET of the 250,000 euros race over 3 miles 5 furlongs looks as tough as ever. Not only are numerous trainers doubly represented, but the two top Irish owners, Ryanair boss Michael O´Leary (Gigginstown House Stud) and JP McManus, each have 5 runners. Jockey bookings suggest that Four Commanders (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell) and Groody Hill (Christy Roche/ AP McCoy) are respectively their main hopes, but it would certainly be no big surprise to see the "wrong" ones finish in front. We hope for instance that German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Mark Walsh), run well for McManus; he has been running over hurdles, and was an excellent runner-up in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, but is equally effective over fences. It would also be nice to see Roi du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Adrian Heskin) run a big race for Giggginstown off top weight; obviously this is very tough, but he has a bit of class and seems overpriced at 50-1. Arthur Moore saddled the winner a year ago, ridden by his niece Nina Carberry, and they try again with Lastoftehleaders, while Western Charmer (Dessie Hughes/ Davy Condon) was runner-up and could go well again. Cross Appeal (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) won the Paddy Power handicap at Christmas with Groody Hill third, and should again get involved - though 5 lbs worse off- while Lion na Bearnai (T. Gibney/ Andrew Thornton) is actually better off with Four Commanders despite outstaying him at Navan in February. Clearly anything can happen here but our 3 against the field, taking into account the likely prices, are Roi du Mee, Catch Me and Western Charmer.
In terms of class, the best race on the card is the opening Grade Two hurdle over 2 1/2 miles. in which Oscars Well (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) attempts to give weight away to such smart performers as Get Me out of Here (Jonjo O´Neill/ AP McCoy). Neither of the two has won so far this season, but they have been competing in top company, and Oscars Well was a highly respectable sixth in the Champion Hurdle, while McCoy´s mount also ran a great race at the Festival when runner-up under a big weight in the Coral Cup. At these weights we just prefer Get Me out of Here. Harrington and Power also have the top weight Steps to Freedom in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.40; he was disappointing at Cheltenham, but a return to his best form would see him win this

All the top jockeys are at Fairyhouse, and Cork, the other Irish meeting today, has a card with all 7 races restricted to amateur riders. Some very open races with big fields, our best bet is Minella for Value (John Nallen/ Mr.JT Carroll) at 17.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Oscars Well - Get Me Out Of Here - The Real Article
2. Race: Dedigout - Lord Gale - Novarov
3. Race: Steps To Freedom - Midnight Game - Alderwood
4. Race: Balnaslow - Sraid Padraig - Teelin Star
5. Race: Four Commanders - Ninetieth Minute - Cross Appeal
6. Race: Lucky William - Action Master - Perfect Smile
7. Race: Shellys Creek - Molly`S Boy - Barel Of Laughs
8. Race: Don Cossack - Morning Royalty - Elsie

Fairyhouse Easter Festival begins

easily the best racing in Britain and Ireland today comes from Fairyhouse, where the Easter Festival begins, with the Irish Grand National tomorrow as the main feature. Today´s big race is the Grade One Powers Gold Cup for novice chasers at 17.30 CET. Flemenstar (Peter Casey/ Andrew Lynch) has won his last four races and looks as if he can go right to the top; he is a confident selection here. Call the Police (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), third in the RSA at Cheltenham, and Rathlin (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell), winner of his last 3, can follow him home. The Grade Two novice hurdle for mares at 15.25 and the Grade Two novice hurdle half an hour later, both over 2 1/2 miles, are the main supporting events and both look wide open. Ceol Rua (Mullins/ Walsh) and Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty/ Tom Doyle) are our very tentative suggestions.
There is also Irish N.H. racing at Cork, with some large fields. Unfortunately there is a very poor turnout for the main event, the Imperial Call Chase at 17.10. This could go to the handicapper Give Us a Hand (JA Berry/ AF O´Neill).
The two British jump meetings are very low level. Alan King could win 3 races at Towcester, with Vendor (Wayne Hutchinson) at 15.10, Rivermouth (Charlie Huxley) half an hour later, and either Willoughby (Gerard Tumelty) or Hollow Penny (Hutchinson) in the concluding bumper. At Plumpton, we hope that ex-German Double Handful (David Bass) can continue the progress he has made since joining Lawnay Hill in the handicap hurdle at 17.35´, while ex-French Donatorio (John Ferguson/ Paul Moloney) can take the maiden hurdle at 15.30.
The only flat racing comes from Musselburgh, where the grandly-named Gold Cup, a handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 16.50, is the main event. The lightly-raced Monsun gelding Shubaat (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) is the likely favourite here, but we have slight preference for Lexington Bay (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Simon Gray - Hawk Flight - He`S Our Man
2. Race: Ceol Rua - Dressedtothenines - Madam Bovary
3. Race: Lyreen Legend - Jenari - Texas Jack
4. Race: Vesper Bell - Jetson - Please Talk
5. Race: Competitive Edge - Beir Bua - Devil`S Elbow
6. Race: Flemenstar - Rathlin - Call The Police
7. Race: El Fontan - Se Beag - Kildare Blowin

Today´s N.H. action

The best jumps racing comes from Haydock, where there are 3 very competitive 50,000 GBP handicaps. Ruby Walsh is here for just one ride, Paul Nicholls´ Pasco in the 2 1/2 mile chase at 16.30 CET, and this hint must be taken. He has not won for 3 years but has run plenty of good races and has been dropped to a nice mark. Ferdy Murphy´s two runners Riguez Dancer (Noel Fehily) and Lord Villez (James Reveley), both last-time-out winners, look the main dangers. The 2 3/4 mile chase at 15.25 could go to German-bred Bocciani (Brian Ellison/ Denis O´Regan), who is stepping up on trip; distance specialist Buffalo Bob (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire) is one of many dangers. Ellison clearly wants to win the handicap hurdle at 15.55 as well, as he saddles no fewer than 7 of the 20 runners. Hard to say which is his best prospect, so we shall take 3 others against the field - Dineur (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), Monarchs Way (John Ferguson( Tom O´Brien) and German-bred All the Winds (Sam Lyce tt/ Sam Twiston-Davies).

There could also be a German-bred winner at Newton Abbot, with both Passato (Jo Davis/ Paddy Brennan) and Oldrik (Philip Hobbs/ Giles Hawkins) having a chance in the main event, a 2 mile handicap at 16.40. We prefer the former, who as a son Lando should appreciate the likely fast ground. The 3 mile handicap chase at 16.55 is the top race at Carlisle. All 6 runners have chances here, and we give a narrow vote to bottom-weight Isla Pearl Fisher (Neil and Lucy Alexander).

Today´s flat racing

A busy Easter Saturday with 3 flat meetings and 3 over jumps. Kempton´s traditional Easter fixture now has the mile listed event for fillies and mares at 15.40 CET as its main feature. Sooraah (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore) and Law of the Range (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) are the two top-rated and could well fight out out the finish, but very lightly-raced Raasekha (Charlie Hills/ Paul Hanagan), not seen out since winning an Ascot maiden in July, looks an interesting alternative. The Queens Prize, a 2 mile handicap at 16.15, is a tricky race and John Gosden makes things trickier by saddling two runners Thimaar (Hanagan) and Rasheed (William Buick), both last-time-out winners and with chances, However we prefer Right Stuff (Gary and Ryan Moore), who has a good record at this track, while we cannot resist a small saver on Enroller (Willie Muir/ Martin Dwyer), who missed all of 2010 and struggled a bit last season but is very well handicapped on his old form. The mile handicap at 15 .05 is another open race; Double Dealer (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) was very consistent last year without winning and is the first British Godolphin starter of 2012. We expect him to win and he can point the way for the two Godolphin runners later in the race for 2yo fillies at 16.45.

Musselburgh stage one of their best meetings of the year and the big race here is the valuable mile handicap for 3yo´s at 16.50. Mark Johnston saddles 3 runners, with Joe Fanning on top-weight Switzerland, but he looks held on earlier all-weather form by Shabora (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan). Marcus Tregoning has started the season well and his Bronze Angel (Hayley Turner) must be considered, while Richard Fahey regards Gabrial (Tony Hamilton) as his best chance of the day. As he has plenty of runners today, this opinion should be respected, and the trainer also expects his 2yo debutant Polski Max to run well at 15.10. The 5 furlongs conditions race at 15.45 features two previous winners, Hamish McGonagall (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) and Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Neil Callan). The latter is now 10 and probably not as fast as he used to be, but he can still win in receipt of 8 lbs from his main rival.

In Ireland, the 6 furlongs listed event at 15.50 at Cork is the best race and has 15 runners. Croisultan (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) won a good handicap at the Curragh a fortnight ago, and this form might be good enough, but The Reaper (Ger Lyons/ Johnny Murtagh) looks very dangerous on his form at Meydan in January; he was only 4 lengths behind Krypton Factor in Dubai and obviously has a great chance in this company.

Very small fields

There are some very small fields at today´s meetings, especially at Wincanton with only 26 runners entered. Normally the best strategy here is to back all Paul Nicholls´ runners, but he has only two - That´ll Do, top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.00 CET and Earth Planet in the handicap chase an hour later, both partnered by Harry Derham, but we are not convinced by either.

Nicholls possibly has better chances at Ludlow, where his stable jockey Daryl Jacob is riding, but he partners Politeo for Nick Williams in the main event, 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 16.50. Politeo is coming into form, while Nick Williams had a big winner in France yesterday, and the gelding is a son of Lando, so should handle the fast ground. Lancetto (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge) is closely related to Lando, and he can take the novice chase at 15.50, while ex-German Aviso (David and Richard Evans) can win the selling hurdle at 15.20. Aviso won the Mehl-Mülhens-Rennen 5 years ago, and while his form in the U.K. has been well below that level, he has won 4 races in 2012, including this CD, and can score again in this very modest company.

There are plenty of runners at the Irish N.H. meeting at Clonmel, but little quality. Our best bet here is Noble Pageant (John Neilan/ Tom Doyle) in the maiden hurdle at 17.55. He ran quite well at Thurles on Tuesday and this opposition looks very moderate, while the shorter distance could also be in his favour. There is flat racing today at Folkestone, but again at a very low level. Most interesting event is the 10 furlongs maiden at 17.40, with entries from some top stables. Clive Brittain´s filly Muzhil (Brett Doyle) has been well entered and the daughter of Manduro could run well at a decent price.

5 meetings today

5 meetings today. two over jumps and three on the all-weather, but nothing earth-shattering, and some small fields as well. The weather remains a problem. Although the going at the two N.H. meetings at Exeter and Hereford is given as good to firm, bad weather is certainly on the way. The chase course at Exeter is unsafe and the card comprises 5 races over hurdles and a bumper.

Tim Vaughan looks the trainer to follow at Exeter and can win the first 3 races. Both Grand Latou at 15.20 CET and Jive Master at 16.20 are ridden by Richard Johnson and are returning after several months off, while J´Adhere /Robert Kirk) will need to settle better than he did last time under his young jockey. Vaughan could also have a winner at Hereford, as Jaffonien (Aidan Coleman) has an obvious chance in the handicap chase at 17.40 after his good second place to a smart Paul Nicholls runner here last time. However we shall take a chance on Fix the Rib (Gary and Jamie Moore), who we fancied at Ascot on Saturday, when he threw away his chances by some poor jumping; this is a much easier race and he can make up for those lapses now. The Moores can also take the maiden hurdle at 15.10 with Regal Park, who was quite a decent staying handicapper on the flat; Barton Stacey (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) is the obvious danger here.

The best race at Lingfield is the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.00. Camborne (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) is the likely favourite here, having won his only start so far. However he seems high enough in the weights for us and we prefer Big Creek (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore) and Southern State (Mark Johnston/ Kieren Fallon), both of whom should have a fitness advantage after several runs already this year.

At Wolverhampton this evening, the 3yo handicap over 9 1/ furlongs at 20.00 looks wide open. Apothecary (Gosden/ William Buick) and Zain Princess (Ger Butler/ Nicky Mackay) were second and third in a very tight finish over this CD recently and should again be involved, while Equity Card (Johnston/ Joe Fanning), My Sharena (Silvester Kirk/ Liam Keniry) and Spirit of the Law (Ed Dunlop/ Jamie Spencer) all finished last season in good form. However we give a tentative vote to Clive Brittain´s Manomime (Brett Doyle), who showed little in 2011 but was much improved to win over 7 furlongs on his seasonal debut; as a son of Manduro, he should be suited by this distance.

There are two good races on this evening´s Dundalk card. The conditions race for fillies at 19.50 has only 4 runners, but Up (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) finished fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf when last seen - and had previously won over CD - and looks unbeatable here with the O´Brien team already in good form. The 7 furlongs handicap an hour later look very competitive. Top-weight Banna Boiche (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) has some excellent CD form to his credit and will not easily be beaten, but Billyford (Liam Roche/ Johnny Murtagh) has won his last 3 races - all here- and still appears nicely handicapped; he can complete a four-timer now.

Four meetings today

Four meetings today - 3 over jumps and one on the all-weather. The best racing comes from Sedgefield, where the Durham National over 3 3/4 miles at 17.30 CET is the main event. There are only 8 runners, but most of them have chance in an open race. Both top-weight The Hollinwell (Ferdy Murphy/Tony Kelly) and Bellflower Boy (Dr. Newland/ Charlie Huxley) ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time- the latter over hurdles, but he is better handicapped over fences. We stillorefer the former, who is pretty useful in this grade, while the consistent Night in Milan (Keith and James Reveley) has been racing over 3 miles and is untested over further. Rey Nacarando (Charlie Longsdon/ Andrew Tinkler), pulled up on very heavy going last time, and the lightly-raced Belmore Baron (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania), an easy winner here over 3 furlongs shorter last time, are others to consider, but we will stick with the top-weight. The novice handicap hurdle here at 17.00 is another decent event and l ooks a rerun of a race run here 11 days ago, which Ebanour (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) won from Sublime Talent (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Cadore (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan). At the revised weights there should be very little in it this time, but Sublime Talent each way looks the safest bet.

The card at Fontwell is much less interesting. lan KMing nd Cho0c Thonrtrom could b th tm to follow hre. Thy can tak h oning novic hurdle at 15.10 with Medinas, and also have good chances at 15.40 with Habbie Simpson and an hour later with Miss Exhibitionist, although both these races look quite tricky.

Our best bet of the day is the German-bred Der Spieler (JG Coogan/ Davy Russell) in the opening beginners chase at 17.15 at Thurles. He was the best of these over hurdles, and although his chasing record so far is blemished - he has failed to complete several times - he needs only to jump round safely to win this. Other fancies at the Irish meeting are Shifa at 17.45 and Maggie Connolly an hour later, both trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh. The Mullins/ Walsh team have another good chance at 19.15 with Lord Gale in the maiden hurdle; he is certainly overdue for a win, but we are not sure he can concede 8 lbs to Shrapnel (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell).

The all-weather fixture at Southwell is very poor. The only race of interest is the 3yo handicap over 6 furlongs at 16.50, in which all 6 runners could win. Half a Billion (Michael Dods/ Lee Topliss) was placed several times without scoring last year, but made a winning debut over this CD for 2012 and can perhaps follow up.

Two poor meetings today

Very low level sport at today´s two meetings- on the flat at Redcar and over jumps at Kelso. However it is surely significant that Kieren Fallon travels to Redcar for just one ride - James Tate´s Shamardellah in the 3yo mile handicap at 16.45 CET. Although she was only 5th on her seasonal reappearance at Limgfield last month, even that form may be good enough in this lowly company.

Ghalaa (Mark Johnston/ Paul Hanagan), twice runner-up from 3 starts last year. looks the main danger. Hanagan also has a good chance on Richard Fahey´s Lady Loch in the 3yo maideen half an hour earlier. At Kelso we are interested in German-bred Solis´ (James Ewart/ Henry Brooke) prospects in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 15.30. He has not run for almost 2 years but seems very well handicapped on his old form. Beidh Tine Anseo (Lucinda Russell/ Grant Cockburn) is clearly the one to beat. Russell could be the trainer to follow here today, as Pena Dorada (Peter Buchanan) at 16.00 and Kai Broon (Campbell Gillies) at 16.30 also have winning chances. Easement (George and Jonathan Bewley) was runner-up over this CD 10 days ago and can go one better in the handicap hurdle at 18.00. Punters are warned that the weather forecast is very bad for Scotland today and the going could well change dramatically.

Jumps racing at Ascot and Limerick

Ascot has quite a decent card today, but the fields are in some cases quite small with the ground firming up, and only 3 run in the novice chase at 15.55 CET. We expect Darna (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire) to get the better of Prince of Pirates (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy), but there could be little in it. There could be a German-bred winner in the opening maiden hurdle at 15.20; Kruzhilin (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) was a good runner-up last time at Huntingdon and could go one better here. He is by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare and fast ground should be ideal. Cortinas (Linda Jewell/ Joshua Moore) could also run well at a big price in the veterans handicap chase at 17.40. He is not the most conistent but is on a very handy mark. The jockey also has good prospexts of taking the handicap chase at 17.05 on top-weight Fix the Rib, trained by his father; he is dropping in grade here and has often run well at this track. We also like Creekside (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Reg an) in the handicap hurdle for 4yo´s at 16.30; he was easily the best of these on the flat and can profit from his superior class here.

Ascot - betting forecast:
1. Race: Daymar Bay - Kruzhlinin - Kings Bayonet
2. Race: Prince Of Pirates - Darna - Harvest Song
3. Race: Lexi`S Boy - Black Pond - Creekside
4. Race: Cool Friend - Fix The Rib - Inside Dealer
5. Race: Fabalu - Nikola - Knighton Combe
6. Race: Kasbadali - Imperial Circus - Promising Anshan
7. Race: Hoo La Baloo - I Have Dreamed - Vico



The best race at Limerick is the Grade Two novice chase at 17.50. There are only 6 runners and none of them have much experience on ground as fast as this, but logically the race lies between Frisco Depot (Dessie Hughes/ BJ Cooper) and the two Gigginstown runners Crash (Michael Hourigan/ Davy Russell) and Gates of Rome (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power).

Limerick - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mystic Desir - Musawama - Captains Dilemma
2. Race: Silverlord - False Economy - Wilde Wit Pleasure
3. Race: Ballysteen - Scots Gaelic - Protaras
4. Race: Leceile - Little Green - Johny`S Lantern
5. Race: Frisco Depot - Gates Of Rome - Crash
6. Race: Summer Star - Knocklong - Sizing Jo`burg
7. Race: Penny`S Bill - Come To The Party - Code Of The West

Doncaster Lincoln meeting: second day

The Doncaster meeting continues today with some huge fields, but mainly low level racing. It wiil be quite a culture shock for Jamie Spencer and Kieren Fallon, who are both due to ride here after being in action at Meydan yesterday evening! Easily the best race is the listed Doncaster Mile at 16.55 and we make Side Glance (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) our best bet of the day here. He is not penalised for a pattern race success last season and has at least 7 lbs in hand according to official ratings. Penitent (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who won the Lincoln over this CD in 2010 but probably needs softer going, and Questioning (John Gosden/ William Buick) can take the minor placings.

Balding and Fortune also have a good chance of winning the day´s best handicap at 16.20 over 6 furlongs with Desert Law, but this looks wide open affair, and Docofthebay (Scott Dixon/ Ian Mongan), better handicapped on turf than on the all-weather, and King of Jazz (Michael Bell/ Spencer), having his first race since leaving Richard Hannon, also make the short list. Balding could even make it a hat-trick with Tappanappa (David Probert) in the conditions race over 1 1 /2 miles at 17.30, who has already won twice this year, but on ratings he cannot beat King of Wands (Gosden/ Buick), who is however making his comeback from 20 months off the track.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lil Ella - Jeer - Kodicil
2. Race: Sequoia - Mutafaakir - Born To Surprise
3. Race: Sound Amigo - Jungle Bay - Silvery Moon
4. Race: Johannes - Johannes - Johannes
5. Race: Side Glance - Questioning - Penitent
6. Race: King Of Wands - Eternal Heart - Junoob
7. Race: Attenborough - Modernism - Kingsdesire
8. Race: Sam Nombulist - Beckermet - Layla`S Hero