Monday, April 09, 2012

Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

the Irish Grand National is the centrepiece of the big Fairyhouse Easter meeting, and today´s renewal at 17.50 CET of the 250,000 euros race over 3 miles 5 furlongs looks as tough as ever. Not only are numerous trainers doubly represented, but the two top Irish owners, Ryanair boss Michael O´Leary (Gigginstown House Stud) and JP McManus, each have 5 runners. Jockey bookings suggest that Four Commanders (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell) and Groody Hill (Christy Roche/ AP McCoy) are respectively their main hopes, but it would certainly be no big surprise to see the "wrong" ones finish in front. We hope for instance that German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Mark Walsh), run well for McManus; he has been running over hurdles, and was an excellent runner-up in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, but is equally effective over fences. It would also be nice to see Roi du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Adrian Heskin) run a big race for Giggginstown off top weight; obviously this is very tough, but he has a bit of class and seems overpriced at 50-1. Arthur Moore saddled the winner a year ago, ridden by his niece Nina Carberry, and they try again with Lastoftehleaders, while Western Charmer (Dessie Hughes/ Davy Condon) was runner-up and could go well again. Cross Appeal (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) won the Paddy Power handicap at Christmas with Groody Hill third, and should again get involved - though 5 lbs worse off- while Lion na Bearnai (T. Gibney/ Andrew Thornton) is actually better off with Four Commanders despite outstaying him at Navan in February. Clearly anything can happen here but our 3 against the field, taking into account the likely prices, are Roi du Mee, Catch Me and Western Charmer.
In terms of class, the best race on the card is the opening Grade Two hurdle over 2 1/2 miles. in which Oscars Well (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) attempts to give weight away to such smart performers as Get Me out of Here (Jonjo O´Neill/ AP McCoy). Neither of the two has won so far this season, but they have been competing in top company, and Oscars Well was a highly respectable sixth in the Champion Hurdle, while McCoy´s mount also ran a great race at the Festival when runner-up under a big weight in the Coral Cup. At these weights we just prefer Get Me out of Here. Harrington and Power also have the top weight Steps to Freedom in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.40; he was disappointing at Cheltenham, but a return to his best form would see him win this

All the top jockeys are at Fairyhouse, and Cork, the other Irish meeting today, has a card with all 7 races restricted to amateur riders. Some very open races with big fields, our best bet is Minella for Value (John Nallen/ Mr.JT Carroll) at 17.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Oscars Well - Get Me Out Of Here - The Real Article
2. Race: Dedigout - Lord Gale - Novarov
3. Race: Steps To Freedom - Midnight Game - Alderwood
4. Race: Balnaslow - Sraid Padraig - Teelin Star
5. Race: Four Commanders - Ninetieth Minute - Cross Appeal
6. Race: Lucky William - Action Master - Perfect Smile
7. Race: Shellys Creek - Molly`S Boy - Barel Of Laughs
8. Race: Don Cossack - Morning Royalty - Elsie