Craven meeting starts at Newmarket

Most racing people regard the Craven meeting, which starts today at Newmarket, as the proper start of the flat season, and today´s card sees not only most of the leading Newmarket trainers saddling runners, but also a strong challenge both from Yorkshire and from the Lambourn area. 7 of today´s 8 races are restricted to 3yo´s, so the emphasis on future prospects could hardly be more obvious.

With very little recent form to go on, this also makes things difficult for punters, and to be honest, today´s races are better just watched. Main feature is the Group Three Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs for fillies at 17.10 CET, a major 1,000 Guineas trial, although it would be surprising of any of today´s runners were to go on to win the classic. Nayarra (Mick Channon/ Martin Dwyer) was the only runner to win a Group One last year, but that was in Italy and she carries a penalty for so doing. Channon also saddles Muaamara (Sam Hitchcott) as well as Lady Gorgeous (Martin Harley). Godolphin´s Mahmood al Zarooni has two runners. Pimpernel (Frankie Dettori) and Minidress (Mikael Barzalona); while Frankie presumably rides the more fancied runner, we have not forgotten Pimpernel´s feeble performance last time in Dubai. Cheveley Park´s two runners Regal Realm (Jeremy Noseda/ Jimmy Fortune) and Starscope (John Gosden/ William Buick) are both highly regarded, but in an open race we go for the exposed but tough and consistent Lily´s Angel (Richatd Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), whose trainer/ jockey combination won the race last year.

The most valuable race on the card is the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Sprint over 6 furlongs at 16.00. Samitar (Channon/ Jamie Spencer) won a valuable sales here race last autumn over 7 furlongs and was also only beaten a head in a Group One over a mile; now she comes back in trip and also races against colts, the best of whom might be Balty Boys (Charlie and Michael Hills). Valbchek (Noseda/ Ryan Moore) started at odds-on for his debut on the all-weather and won with the greatest of ease; obviously this is a much better race, but he could still go well.

The European Free Handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.35 is no longer as significant as used to be the case, but Zumbi (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Hazaz (Clive Brittain/ Brett Doyle) are our two main candidates here. However it is more than likely that the races on the undercard may throw up more classic pointers, so we repeat that it probably more profitable to watch and analyse these races than to bet on them.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Qannaas - Periphery - Poole Harbour
2. Race: Baileys Jubilee - Dreamy Ciara - Lucky Beggar
3. Race: Samitar - Balty Boys - Valbchek
4. Race: Zumbi - Redact - Telwaar
5. Race: Russelliana - Pimpernel - Starscope
6. Race: Jungle Beat - Perennial - Producer
7. Race: Shantaram - All That Rules - Model Pupil
8. Race: Es Que Love - Top Cop - Heeraat