Grand National

The Grand National, to be run at 17.15 CET today over 4 1/2 miles at Aintree, remains the most famous horse race on the world and 500 million TV viewers are expected to watch the race this afternoon. 40 runners, and to be honest a case can be made for all of them and equally, there are also arguments against them all. We will start at the top- Synchronised (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) has top weight and is likely to start favourite. He won the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, obviously the best form in the race, and had previously taken the Lexus Chase, last season the Welsh Grand National and in 2010 the Midlands Grand National. Plenty of people say he is the wrong type to win the race - too small and not a good enough jumper - but his record speaks for itself and for us he is the most likely winner. No Gold Cup winner has taken the same season´s National since Golden Miller in 1934, and no top weight has won since Red Rum in 1974 - but these records are there to be broken.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) won the race last year and tries again with 10 lbs more weight. The last horse to win twice was the great Red Rum, who was of course trained by McCain´s father; Ballabriggs has clearly been trained with just this one race in mind - but that of course applies to plenty of the others. McCain also saddles Weird Al (Timmy Murphy) but his recent form is not inspiring, while O´Neill has two more runners, both also owned by JP McManus: Arbor Supreme (Mark Walsh) and Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon), of which the latter certainly has a chance after his Kim Muir win at Cheltenham. Surprisingly, another Paul Nicholls nor Nicky Henderson, the two leading British N.H. traners, have ever won the race. They are now represented by Neptune Collonges (Daryl Jacob) and Shakalakaboomboom (Barry Geraghty) respectively and both have their admirers. The Pipe stable knows how to win, and Junior (Tom Scudamore). another small horse, who has also won at Royal Ascot (!) also comes into the reckoning.

Previous form in the race is always a huge advantage (as we saw again yesterday) and therefore Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), the 2009 winner, and State of Play (Noel Fehily), one of 3 runners trained by Evan Williams, must be considered. State of Play, out of a German mare, has an amazing record here - he was 4th in Mon Mome´s race, 3rd in 2010 and 4th again last year in fact the last two Grand Nationals have been his last two races. The Irish have done very well in this race in recent years and there are 15 of them running today. Dessie Hughes has 4 runners, with 13yo Black Appalachi (Denis O´Regan), having the best chance in our view, and Willie Mullins has 3 with Ruby Walsh on On His Own. Ruby could also have ridden his father´s Seabass, who will now by partnered by his sister Katie. Seabass is the unknown quantity here - he has won his last 6 races - twice ridden by Katie - but nobody -including his opiniated trainer Ted- seems to have any idea whether he wi ll get the trip or not.

Ted Walsh junior recently married Nina Carberry, and she rides Organizedconfusion for her uncle Arthur Moore, who won the Irish Grand National a year ago. Meanwhile brother Paul Carberry rides Chicago Grey for Gordon Elliott, another good Irish chance. Obviously a win for one of the girls would be the best publicity ever and is by no means impossible. We have mentioned 15 runners, but the race is so open that it is more than likely that none of them will be placed - but for the record our 4 against the field are Synchronised, Neptune Collonges, Junior and Black Appalachi.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Simonsig - Super Duty - Molotof
2. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Australia Day - Toubab
3. Race: Oscar Whisky - Rock On Ruby - Zarkandar
4. Race: Cannington Brook - Marufo - Chapoturgeon
5. Race: Synchronised - Junior - Giles Cross
6. Race: Paintball - Dream Esteem - Kazlian
7. Race: Population - Minella Forfitness - Ifyousayso