Monday, February 28, 2011

Catterick, Plumpton and Wolverhampton

With just over a fortnight to go before the Cheltenham Festival, there is no point in expecting high class racing for the next 2 weeks and today´s cards are all very low standard. At Catterick the card opens with a handicap hurdle for lady amateur riders at 15.10 CET with 17 runners and we like the look of German-bred Bright Sparky (Mick Easterby/ Jacqueline Coward). He has so far been very inconsistent over the sticks, but is in good form on the flat, having finished 121 on his last 3 starts, all at Wolverhampton. These were admittedly very bad races, but so is this. Also at Catterick, we expect A Bridge Too Far (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) to win the novice hurdle at 16.40 and Silent Cliche (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) to take the beginners chase half an hour later. The former was an easy winner at Wetherby 5 weeks ago and was later sold for a big sum to his present connections who can recoup a tiny fraction today. The latter was very unlucky last time at Sedgefi eld and can recover those losses today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Winter Alchemy - Dance Sauvage - Knight Valliant
2. Race: San Deng - Whatdoidowiththat - Wor Rom
3. Race: Folk Tune - Pamak D`Airy - Ice Image
4. Race: A Bridge Too Far - Dr Flynn - Total Submission
5. Race: Silent Cliche - Wolf Moon - Soft Spoken Guy
6. Race: Scarvagh Rose - A P Ling - Tchikita
7. Race: Sir Charlie Hutch - Evans Wood - Sinfield




There are also some German-breds in action at Plumpton - Sulpius (Bob Buckler/ Nathan Sweeney) and Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Colin Bolger), who both run in the maiden hurdle at 15.20. The former has a good Schlenderhan pedigree but has shown very little so far, but the latter has good prospects after finishing runner-up (at 66-1) last time at Folkestone, making steady headway from the rear. Any further improvement puts him with a great chance in this field. Otherwise it should pay to stick to course specialists at this weird track, notably Sebastiano (Gary and Jamie Moore) at 16.20 and Sumdancer (Michael Madgwick/ Ian Popham), who can repeat his 2010 victory in the handicap chase at 16.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alystar - Koup De Kanon - Promised Wings
2. Race: Asturienne - Evella - Gan On
3. Race: Beau Lake - Sebastiano - Rushwee
4. Race: Prince Louis - Owner Occupier - Restezen D`Armor
5. Race: Can`T Remember - Twin Bud - Kaituna
6. Race: Master D`Or - Western Whisky - Gentleman Jimmy
7. Race: Saulty Max - Grey Cruzene - Brunette`Sonly




Mark Johnston´s 3yo´s always seem to run much on their second starts, and for that reason we expect him to land a double a Wolverhampton with Black Pond at 18.00 and Barnum half an hour later, both partnered by Joe Fanning. Another one to watch here is Dubai Hills (Bryan Smart/ A Carter), who has won 4 successive races at Southwell and can continue his winning run here at 16.30, while Stargazing (Marco Botti/ Toby Atkinson) can complete a CD treble at 17.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Island Legend - Six Wives - Desert Strike
2. Race: Stand Beside Me - We`Ll Deal Again - Dr Red Eye
3. Race: Dubai Hills - Below Zero - Captain Ramius
4. Race: Stargazing - What`S Up Doc - Black Coffee
5. Race: Duneen Dream - Director General - Kielty`S Folly
6. Race: Black Pond - Sim Sala Bim - Arizona High
7. Race: Loyal N Trusted - Lady Elsie - Tornado Force
8. Race: Sweet Origin - Layla`S Dancer - Hallstatt

Sunday, February 27, 2011

National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell

Fontwell stages one of its best fixtures of the year today, when the main feature is the Grade Two National Spirit Hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 16.45 CET. Trenchant (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) won this last year, but has not been seen our since finishing down the field at the Cheltenham festival last March. In any case, this looks a stronger renewal and we much prefer stable companion Karabak (Tony McCoy). King should know where he stands with Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton), who was arguably unlucky not to have beaten his Mille Chief last time at Wincanton. Celestial Halo has not won for some time, but was placed 2nd and 4th in the last two Champion Hurdles and, in receipt of 4 lbs from Karabak, isa confident selection today. Nicholls could have a profitable afternoon, as we also expect Vico (Ryan Mahon) to win the opening novice hurdle at 15.10, and Ornais (Mahon) to take the hunter chase at 17.15.
The card at the other U.K. jumps meeting at Towcester is very low grade, and with the ground riding very heavy, some surprises can be expected. A German-bred we would be wary of is Panzer (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) in the novice handicap chase at 17.35, who had good form on fast ground in the autumn, but has not run since. However it is possible that L´Homme de Nuit (Jim Best/ Denis O´Regan), by Samum, at 16.30 and Aconitum (Neil Mulholland/ Dougie Costello), by Monsun, at 17.05, could run well.
The best event at the Irish meeting at Leopardstown is the hurdle race at 15.20. Sublimity (Robert Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) won the Champion Hurdle back in 2007 and is still capable of winning in this grade. However he probably needs better ground and we prefer German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) who has been a bit disappointing so far this season, but seems to have everything in his favour today. We also think that Dermot Weld has a good chance of landing a double here with Endless Intrigue (Robbie McNamara) at 14.50 and Prince Erik (Davy Condon) at 16.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Vico - Bunglasha Lady - Hong Kong Harry
2. Race: Sarando - Fruity O`Rooney - Lord Ragnar
3. Race: Pete The Feat - Swainson - Quel Bruere
4. Race: Celestial Halo - Karabak - Sentry Duty
5. Race: Ornais - Herons Well - Horsham Lad
6. Race: Dune Shine - Sun Quest - Beside The Fire
7. Race: Destroyer Deployed - Vincentian - Camas Bridge

Saturday, February 26, 2011

heavy ground at Newcastle end Chepstow abandoned

there were inspections earlier this morning at Newcastle and Chepstow, but while the former meeting has been the green light to go ahead (but on very heavy ground), Chepstow has had to be abandoned as the track is waterlogged in places.
Main event at Newcastle is the Eider Chase, handicap at 16.15 CET over 4 miles 1 furlong, which will take some getting in these conditions. This is a good trial for the Grand National, and Comply or Die (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) won both races in 2008. He tries again under top weight, and while we think he is still capable of winning this at the age of 12, we are worried about the going; perhaps Ballyfoy (Jamie Poulton/ Mattie Batchelor), Giles Cross (Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan) and Belon Gale (Howard Johnson/ Keith Renwick), all of whom stay well and act on the heavy, are more reliable options. Another interesting runner here is Gorge (Anthony Cosgriff Anton Voy), an ex-Australian horse having his first run in more than a year in the handicap hurdle at 15.15; he is probably best watched today and Dontpaytheferryman (Brian Ellison/ Kyle James) looks the logical choice.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Roi De Rose - Categorical - Hockenheim
2. Race: Dontpaytheferryman - Night In Milan - Reindeer Dippin
3. Race: Yurok - Battle Group - Be True
4. Race: Giles Cross - Minella Boys - Belon Gale
5. Race: Bollin Felix - Paddy Partridge - Shadows Lengthen
6. Race: Chamirey - Tyrone House - The Ferbane Man
7. Race: The Tracey Shuffle - Dancing Art - Rocks Rule

Racing Post day at Kempton

today´s high class card at Kempton is sponsored by the Racing Post, the U.K.´s (and probably the world´s) best racing paper, including excellent coverage from Germany. The richest race is the Racing Post Chase, a valuable handicap over 3 miles at 16.00 CET which has 17 runners and looks wide open. Top-weight Nacarat (Tom Feorge/ Paddy Brennan) is a real Kempton specialist, and won this race in 2009 before last year finishing runner-up to Razor Royale (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies). Nacarat is now slightly better off at the weights, but we expect Razor Royale to defeat him again, but there are dangers galore, notably Fistral Beach (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy), who started favourite last year but fell early on. In fact Fistral Beach has started favourite for his last 10 races, but he only managed to twice; however his trainer seems confident that he has ironed out his problems, and although he is not well handicapped, we must have him on our short list. Philip Hobbs has two fanc ied runners in Quinz, the choice of stable jockey Richard Johnson, and Mostly Bob (Tom O´Brien), while we also expect the 3 northern raiders Sagalyrique (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), Door Boy (/Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) and Safari Adventures (Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) to run well at big prices off their low weights.
The opening Grade Two Adonis Hurdle for 4yo´s at 14.55 sees several Triumph Hurdle hopes in the line up. We are not so keen on those with winning British form, and are certainly interested in the newcomers Molotof (Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), twice runner-up in Pau, the German-bred Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/Jamie Moore), a half-brother to Lady Marian and the even better-bred Zarkandar (Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), a half-brother to Arc winner Zarkava. Molotof´s connections won this last year with Soldatino, who went on to score at Cheltenham; perhaps this is the successful cocktail for today .
Henderson introduces another newcomer in Celtus (Geraghty), who runs in the Grade Two Dovecote Novice Hurdle at 16.35; he won 3 of his 4 starts in France and could be good enough to score on his first British run. Unfortunately there are only 3 runners in the Grade Two Pendil Novice Chase at 15.25, where we expect Captain Chris (Hobbs/ Johnson), runner-up in all 4 starts this season in good company, to get the better of American Trilogy (Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield)
The handicap hurdle at 17.10 is another wide open affair, but the two German-breds First Stream (Johnson/ Hughes) and Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods) could both run much better than last time, when neither completed on very heavy ground. The going, while still on the soft side, will be more suitable today for these useful flat performers, both Group One placed in Germany.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tonic Mellysse - Molotof - Zarkandar
2. Race: Captain Chris - American Trilogy - Adams Island
3. Race: Nacarat - Fistral Beach - Quinz
4. Race: Toubab - Sire De Grugy - Celtus
5. Race: Mr Hudson - Rollwiththepunches - Higgy`S Boy
6. Race: Forget It - Coup Royale - Sprint De Ferbet
7. Race: Tour D`Argent - Diamond Sweeper - War Of The World

Friday, February 25, 2011

N.H. racing at Sandown, Warwick and Navan (Ireland)

By normal Sandown standards, today´s card at the Esher track is very feeble, especially with only 3 runners in the main feature, a novice chase over 2 miles at 16.25 CET. We expect Pepe Simo (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Thomas) to prove best here, although both opponents have decent and recent winning form. The handicaps here all look very difficult, but we feel that Russian Flag (Neil King/ Alex Merriam) and Royale´s Charter (Nick Williams/Daryl Jacob) could repay each-way support at 15.20 and 17.00 respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Qalinas - Rajamand - First Avenue
2. Race: Dinarius - Clouseau - Kilkenny All Star
3. Race: Kid Cassidy - Shuil Royale - Hildisvini
4. Race: Pepe Simo - Dan Breen - Giorgio Quercus
5. Race: Prince Du Seuil - Royale`S Charter - China Gold
6. Race: Diamond Brook - Antonius Caesar - Royal Wedding
7. Race: Ballytober - Univoque - Clever Dick




Some of the leading jockeys are at Warwick, and "Choc" Thornton could have a profitable afternoon here, with both Alan King´s Dhaafer in the 4yo hurdle at 15.40 and Richard Lee´s Incentivise in the handicap chase at 16.50 holding good chances. This latter race goes over 3 miles 5 furlongs, which will take some getting on the heavy ground, and Incentivise is one of the few runners who is not only in form but also guaranteed to get the trip. The same goes for German-bred Federstar (Milton Harris/ Jimmy Derham) in the novice chase at 17.25, who goes well on the heavy and is just about the pick here on hurdles form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Original Prankster - Azione - Like Ice
2. Race: Dhaafer - Pepite Rose - Rock The Stars
3. Race: Basford Bob - Tricky Tree - Bardolf
4. Race: Carronhills - Incentivise - Bench Warrent
5. Race: Stoney`S Treasure - Tafika - Federstar
6. Race: Young Mags - Definite Artist - Florafern




There are huge fields at the Irish meeting at Navan with 20+ runners in all 7 races - 6 over hurdles and a bumper. Some German-breds running here could do well - Narima in the maiden hurdle at 14.40 and Quartetto in the handicap at 17.30 could both finish in the money for Mervyn Torems and Mark Darcy, while Stabilo (MJ McDonagh/ DG Hogan) could also go well in the latter race, and Elcanos (Tony Martin/ G Lavery) has a chance despite top weight in the novice handicap hurdle at 16.50, judging by the way he scored last time at Fairyhouse.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Narima - Driveheron - Fammi Sognare
2. Race: Final Victory - Run With The Wind - Ithinkbest
3. Race: Gift Of Dgab - Popcorn - Ballyburke
4. Race: Last Instalment - Up The Beat - Vics Canvas
5. Race: Elcanos - Shorecliffe King - Short Grass
6. Race: Odonimee - Quartetto - Top Brass
7. Race: The Bog Road Girl - Carrig Millie - Queen Of The Hill

Thursday, February 24, 2011

N.H. racing at Ayr and Huntingdon

Huntingdon stages one of its best meetings of the year today, when the main feature is the Sidney Banks Memorial, a novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.35 CET. All 5 runners are last-time-out winners and it is not easy to make a choice. Minella Class (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is unbeaten over hurdles and won a Grade One last time, but is penalised as a result, and we feel that Aikman (James Ewart/ Harry Haynes), Captain Kirkton (Gary and Joshua Moore) and Pride in Battle (Alan Kíng/ Robert Thornton) can all be preferred at these weights. The most interesting runner of the day however runs in the novice chase at 16.05. Starluck (Alan Fleming/ Tony McCoy) makes his eagerly awaited debut over fences here. He is a very smart hurdler, 5th in last season´s Champion Hurdle, but connctions have made the decision not to go for the Champion again (which looks really hot this year) but to run him in the Arkle, for which McCoy has lready been booked. Obviousy he has to wi n here in order to have a chance at Cheltenham, and we expect him - judging on his hurdles form - to accomplish this, even though 2 of his 3 opponents are also pretty useful, and have already won over fences.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Line Freedom - Dream Function - Naughty Naughty
2. Race: Thunderstorm - Mayolynn - Easton Clump
3. Race: Starluck - Pascha Bere - Mister Stickler
4. Race: Minella Class - Pride In Battle - Captain Kirkton
5. Race: Sea Saffron - Honourable Arthur - Backfromthecongo
6. Race: Decent Lord - Crackerjac Boy - Torran Sound
7. Race: Templer - Mount Benger - Noakarad De Verzee




The card is much less distinguished at Ayr, where we expect the novice hurdle at 15.50 be fought out between Flinty Bay (Nicky Richards/ Dougie Costello), placed in all 4 starts so far over sticks, and Proud Times (Alan Swinbank/ Barry Keniry), 4th on his debut over this CD and a dual winner on the flat. The form of Tartan Snow´s win at Carlisle 15 days ago has since been boosted by the runner-up and despite an 8 lbs rise in the weights he can score again at 16.55 for trainer Coltherd and jockey Gary Rutherford - who rode him last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Overyou - Transact - Classic Henri
2. Race: Flinty Bay - Proud Times - Toledo Gold
3. Race: Rival D`Estruval - And The Man - Inoogoo
4. Race: Tartan Snow - Sheriff Hall - Earl Grez
5. Race: Lampion Du Bost - Sammy Spiderman - Fiftyfive Degrees
6. Race: Noir Et Vert - Special Portrait - Desertmore Star
7. Race: Otterburn - Dark Glacier - Bygones Sovereign

UAE Oaks at Meydan

The Dubai Racing Carnival continues today with the Group Three UAE Oaks at 18.35 CET as the main feature. The race looks at the mercy of Mahbooba (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon), a very easy winner of the local 1,000 Guineas last time. 4 of her 6 opponents were well beaten then , so we think that only the two others could cobceivably upset the favourite. Of these we discount Electric Waves (N Alatawi/ Richard Mullen), who had decent form last year over 5 furlongs but is unlikely to get the 9 furlongs of today´s race. This leaves just Khawlah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and she could be a big danger, despite having her first race since the autumn. She was below form then on very soft ground, but today´s conditions will be far more suitable and Frankie is getting down to his lowest weight to ride. Saeed has won this 6 times and sounds confident of a big run.

Saeed and Frankie also haave a good chance of taking the main supporting feature, the listed Meydan Classic for 3yo´s over 9 furlongs on turf (which the stable has won the two previous times it has been run) at 17.55 with Janood, who is fitted with a first-time visor. he was 4th last time in the UAE 2,000 Guineas and the opposition today does not look that strong, although ex-German Manchester (Niels Petersen/PA Graberg) was third last year in the Preis des Winterfavoriten; hard to say what that form is worth in today´s context.

The 5 handicaps look as tricky as ever, but it be no surprise were Mike de Kock and Christophe Soumillon take the first two races with Hunting Tower and Star Empire, both of whom have already shown good form at this meeting. Mick Channon´ s Halicarnassus finished well when runner-up here last week; he is first reserve for the 9 furlongs race at 17.15, but if he gets into the field must have an excellent chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hunting Tower - War Monger - Lolamar
2. Race: Star Empire - Jedi - Prizefighting
3. Race: Orife - Star Crowned - Force Freeze
4. Race: Sweet Lightning - Royal Destination - Glen Nevis
5. Race: Krypton Factor - Crying Lightening - Janood
6. Race: Mahbooba - Electric Waves - Abtasaamah
7. Race: Colonial - Kavango - Mahubo

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

N.H. racing at Doncaster, Ludlow and Fairyhouse (Ireland)

Rain is forecast at Doncaster, so the ground may be softer than officially reported. Nicky Henderson continues to saddle winners all over and has more good chances here. His Moose Moran (Andrew Tinkler), quite useful on the flat for Henry Cecil, was an expensive flop on his hurdling debut but can recover those losses in the 4yo hurdle at 16.10 CET. Tinkler also partners Wogan in the veterans handicap chase half an hour later. He has won twice here and clearly likes these flat galloping tracks; we hope that he can defeat bottom-weight Dark Ben (SGWest/ Dougie Costello), who made all to win at Musselburgh 12 days ago but meets better opposition her, and Il Duce (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), who was below form on his recent starts but is now very attractively weighted. Henderson and Tinkler also team up with the Queen´s Pipe Banner in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 17.10. He has been off the track since October and is upped in trip here, as is Wild Desert (King/ Choc), so we prefer Quickbeam (Venetia Williams/ Sam Thomas), whose stamina is assured and whose trainer is in great form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Master Fiddle - Raya Star - Lamb`S Cross
2. Race: Beshabar - Cool Mission - Benartic
3. Race: Moose Moran - Jubail - Comedy Act
4. Race: Wogan - Dark Ben - Briery Fox
5. Race: Wild Desert - Quickbeam - Pipe Banner
6. Race: Mister Apple`S - Breaking Silence - Offshore Account
7. Race: Blue Blooded - Malt Master - Allerton




Henderson can also be on the mark at 15.10 at Ludlow with another ex-flat horse who was a beaten odds-on favourite on his hurdling debut: Brunston (Tony McCoy), previously with Roger Charlton. German-bred Querido (Gary Brown/ James Davies) is another multiple flat winner in the field, but at a much lower level; however he could run into the money. Another German-bred with an each-way chance is Tora Bora (Brendan Powell/ Matt O´Connor) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 17.20. The best race here is the handicap hurdle at 16.50, which looks wide open. We fancy the lightly-raced maiden Rock of Deauville (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton), who may turn out to be better than this grade.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Brunston - Paintball - Reginaldinho
2. Race: Font - Diktalina - Abstract Art
3. Race: Rileyev - Jeczmien - Papradon
4. Race: Rock Of Deauville - Chrysander - Scoter Fontaine
5. Race: Timpo - Earcomesthedream - Porta Vogie
6. Race: Battlecry - Takeroc - Good Company
7. Race: Hawkes Point - Swingkeel - Chasing Aces




There is some decent racing in Ireland, where Fairyhouse has passed an early morning inspection and stages two Grade Two races. To be frank, the 4yo hurdle at 15.05 looks sub-standard and should lie between consistent Fearless Falcon (Adrian McGuiness/ Andrew Lynch) and the filly Chaperoned (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), third and fourth behind Unaccompanied in December. Much more interesting is the Bobbyjo Chase over an extended 3 miles at 16.45. Bobbyjo won the Grand National in 1999, and this race looks easily the best Irish trial so far for the Aintree spectacular. Willie Mullins has two runners here, The Midnight Chase (Paul Townend) and Arbor Supreme (David Casey), as does Dessie Hughes with Siegemaster (Davy Russell) and last year´s winner Vic Venturi (Paddy Flood). Bluesea Cracker and Oscar Time finished 1-2 in last years Irish National. According to the ante-post betting for Aintree, The Midnight Chase may have the best chance, but Vic Venturi is one of our favourite horses and we hope he can score here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fearless Falcon - Accidental Outlaw - Chaperoned
2. Race: Wood Lily - Stephanie Kate - Definite Class
3. Race: Good Time Donie - Marlay Park - Taking Stock
4. Race: The Midnight Club - Siegemaster - Vic Venturi
5. Race: Ballymak - Arabella Boy - Pontiac
6. Race: No Notions - Boxer Georg - Salsify
7. Race: Vesper Bell - Battle Bound - Well Regarded

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Taunton, Wetherby and Southwell

Easily the best racing today comes from Taunton, where local trainer Paul Nicholls has entered quite a strong team. He held an open day for the press at his nearby Ditcheat stables yesterday and one of the horses shown was Pistolet Noir, a Cheltenham possible, who runs today in the handicap hurdle at 16.40 CET with Daryl Jacob in the saddle. Clearly he is expected to run well, but this is a very hot race and we expect German-bred Iolith (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) to score. He was taken out of last week´s Totesport Hurdle but has made an excellent impression this season by easily winning both his races; he has been put up 14 lbs for his latest win over this CD at the end of December, but we feel that he has plenty more in the tank. We still expect Nicholls to saddle 3 winners today - Qozak (Nick Scholfield) in the novice chase at 15.00, German-bred Dark Lover (Ryan Mahon) in the novice hurdle at 15.30 and Just Amazing (Mahon) in the hunter chase at 17.15. Another Germ an-bred who could run well is Vacario (Mark Gillard/ Sam Thomas) in the handicap hurdle at 18.20; he was well beaten behind Jordan on very heavy going at Folkestone last week, but the Acatenango gelding should get much closer to that opponent on today´s better ground.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Qozak - Shoreacres - Hopeful Start
2. Race: Dark Lover - Dineur - Glassawine
3. Race: Celtic Ballad - Kirbys Glen - Ilongue
4. Race: Iolith - Ciceron - Pistolet Noir
5. Race: Just Amazing - Pimbury - Ice Bucket
6. Race: E Street Boy - Chilbury Hill - Bright Decision
7. Race: Jordan - Royal Chatelier - Normally




The going will be heavy at Wetherby which should suit Pacco (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) and we expect him to win the 3 mile 1 furlong chase at 16.15. A German-bred who should run well here is Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Campbell Gillies) in the handicap hurdle at 5.40. He was runner-up in a similar event at Catterick last week, and although he is out of the handicap here, his latest form has been boosted by the winner Bocciano, a winner again since. The best-bred horse on view today is Ebanour (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) who makes his debut in the bumper at 18.00. He is from one of the Aga Khan´s best families and his dam won the Irish Oaks; he is aalso the only runner today for his in-form connections - only the bad ground could be a problem.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Imperial Royale - Dancing Partner - Toby Mac
2. Race: Mr Syntax - King In Waiting - Humbie
3. Race: Wheyaye - Oniz Tiptoes - Playing The Field
4. Race: Pacco - Pak Jack - La Pantera Rosa
5. Race: Hobsons Bay - River Dragon - Murrell
6. Race: Sun Tzu - Prince Tam - Pamak D`Airy
7. Race: Ebanour - Skirlaw - Here`S Hockey




The usual modest sport on the all-weather at Southwell this afternoon, including a number of recent course winners who can score again - notably Stanley Rigby (Richard Fahey/ Barry McHugh) who has top-weight in the 1 mile 3 furlongs handicap at 17.35 and has won four races here already this year.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: La Estrella - Stadium Of Light - The Oil Magnate
2. Race: San Antonio - Madame Boot - Nolecce
3. Race: Kummel Excess - Tawzeea - Cape Kimberley
4. Race: Reachforthebucks - William Wainwright - Pink Sari
5. Race: Baileys Agincourt - First Rock - Thunderway
6. Race: Stanley Rigby - Port Hill - Naheell
7. Race: Fastinthestraight - Carnac - Jackie Kiely

Monday, February 21, 2011

Carlisle (N.H.), Hereford (N.H.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

Venetia Williams is usually worth following at Hereford, her local track, and we expect her to have some winners today. Old Way can start the ball rolling in the maiden hurdle at 15.20 CET and Quartz de Thaix can follow up in the beginners chase half an hour later; he was easily the best of these runners over hurdles. Rileyev at 17.20 and Buffalo Stampede at 17.50 also have chances for the stable, all of whose runners are partnered by Aidan Coleman. We also fancy Simply Wings (Richard Lee/ Robert Thornton) at 16.20 and Royal Chantelier (Michael Blake/ RJ Killoran) here, while there could be a German-bred winner in Galantos (Mrs. Nelmes/ Joshua Moore) in the final race at 18.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Old Way - Cotillion - Cottage Acre
2. Race: Quartz De Thaix - South O`The Border - Swansbrook
3. Race: Old Wigmore - Listenlook - Simply Wings
4. Race: Royal Chatelier - French Ties - Himayna
5. Race: Rileyev - Mujamead - Betty Browneyes
6. Race: Buffalo Stampede - Abey M`Boy - Massini Sunset
7. Race: Decent Lord - Seasonselite - Galantos




The trainers to follow at Carlisle could be Donald McCain and Chris Grant. The former can take the first two races with Storming Gale and Identity Parade, and also has a chance at 17.40 with Finlay, all ridden by Jason Maguire, while the latter can saddle two winners in Star Player (Denis O´Regan) at 16.40 and Mister Pete (Anton Voy) at 17.10.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Storming Gale - Senor Alco - Jammia
2. Race: Identity Parade - Overbranch - Primrose Time
3. Race: Teenage Idol - Cool Operator - Bishops Heir
4. Race: Victory Gunner - Star Player - Money Order
5. Race: Mister Pete - Degas Art - Double Eagle
6. Race: Finlay - Work Boy - Stoway
7. Race: Cometotheboardroom - Vintage Star - Edmund




Another possible German-bred winner is Bright Sparky (Mick Easterby/ Jake Greenall) in the second division of the amateur riders handicap at 16.00 at Wolverhampton. He is penalised 6 lbs for winning over this CD last Friday but usually runs well here and has most to fear from Captain Cool (Richard Hannon/ Emily Jones) and Castlebury (Ruth Carr/ Willie Twiston-Davies). Mark Johnston introduces a well-bred newcomer in the maiden race here at 17.30, but the stable´s runners often need their first outing and preference is for Maher (David Slimcock/ Martin Lane, who appeared slightly unlucky not to win when heavily backed here last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Noah Jameel - Laura Land - Barbirolli
2. Race: Bright Sparky - Captain Cool - Wrecking Crew
3. Race: Rylee Mooch - Spontaneity - Restless Bay
4. Race: Erinjay - I Confess - Collect Art
5. Race: Maher - Strophic - Harry Lime
6. Race: Lean Machine - King Of Connacht - Strong Vigilance
7. Race: Kentish - Tax Break - Crown Counsel
8. Race: Mount Hollow - Piccolo Express - Spin Again

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Today´s racing

Nicky Henderson and his stable jockey Barry Geraghty can do no wrong at the moment and had another 4 winners at Ascot yesterday. Today they have 3 runners at Market Rasen and it would come as no surprise to see all 3 triumphant. Siutr Poiunt cn strt the bll rolling when he cintsts the hndp hurdle t 15.30 CT; he had no chance in a much hotter race last time, but meets weaker opposition now, of which recent CD winner Quite the Man (Malcolm Jefferson/ Graham Lee) is the pick. The novice chase at 16.30 looks a straight match between Henderson´s Radium, brought down at Cheltenham last time, and Jefferson´s Cape Tribulation (Denis O´Regan), runner-up to the smart Wayward Prince last time. The Henderson team can complete the hat-trick with Sizing Ireland in the concluding bumper. Jefferson can also be on the scorecard with The Magic Bishop (James Halliday) in the handicap hurdle at 16.00; he has won his last 2 races and could still be ahead of the handicapper. Bedizen (Pam Sly/ Warr en Marston), has been off for 11 months, but still looks an interesting outsider here. His trainer is in good form and always does well at the at the East Anglia tracks.

German-bred Bocciani (Dianne Sayer/ JP O´Farrell) won his race at the 31st attempt when scoring at Catterick last week and can follow up under a penalty in the handicap hurdle at 16.45 at Sedgefield; Rawaaj (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), beaten a head last time, looks the main danger. Another German-bred with a chance here is Euro American (Rose Dobbin/ Keith Renwick) at 15.40, but here we prefer consistent Archies Wish (Micky Hammond/ Barry Keniry).

Easily the best jumps racing to comes from Ireland, where there are 3 Grade Two races at Naas. The 2 mile chase at 16.05 has cut up badly and looks at the mercy of Golden Silver (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), who defeated Big Zeb last time and only has to jump round to win here. Mullins could also take the novice hurdle half an hour later, where he saddles 3 runners. Townend rides Day of a Lifetime, but Dare to Doubt, with the trainer´s nephew Emmet in the saddle, looks dangerous, while Four Commanders (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell) also has a chance. Roi de Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Russell) looks a good thing to win the novice chase at 17.10 after an impressive win from some of the same horses at Punchestown last time.

There is also flat racing on the all-weather at Kempton this afternoon, but the card is very poor. Big Bay (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Neil Callan) is our each-way suggestion in the mile handicap at 16.55.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Haydock, Wincanton and Gowran Park

German-bred Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Graham Lee) puts his unbeaten record on the line when he contests Haydock´s 4yo hurdle at 14.40 CET. We are not sure how the brother to Liquido will act on this heavy ground, and in case he meets much tougher opposition than on his previous 3 starts. Houblon des Obeaux (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman)and Third Intention (Colin and Joe Tizzard), who meets him on 3 lbs better terms for 2 lengths, will make him pull out all the stops. The Grade Two 3 mile novice hurdle half an hour later looks simple for Court on Motion (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle), who goes well on the heavy, and won by 21 lengths last time. The Grade Two hurdle over the same trip at 15.45 should go to Bensalem (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), but the big betting race here, the Grand National Trial over 3 1/2 miles at 16.20 looks much more difficult. Normally one would be wary of horses carrying big weight over this distance on heavy ground, but we think that the 3 top-wei ghts have the best chances here - last year´s winner Silver by Nature (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan), Madison du Berlais (David Pipe/ Danny Cook) and Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Matt O´Connell); all three show their best form on the heavy.

Despite the attractions of Ascot and Haydock, top jockeys Tony McCoy and Robert Thornton will be in action at Wincanton, where the Grade Two Kingwell Hurdle, a recognised Champion Hurdle trial at 16.45, is the main feature. Only 5 runners, but still a classy turnout, and we give the vote to Donald McCain´s strong front-runner Overturn (Jason Maguire) to beat top handicapper Mille Chief (King/ Choc).

There is also a Champion Hurdle trial in Ireland, but only 3 line up for Gowran Park´s Red Mills Hurdle at 1.40. Dunguib (Philip Fenton/ Barry O´Connell) was regarded as a huge star early on in his career, but was slighty disppointing on his last two starts; he returns here after a 9 month absense and if anywhere near peak form, should win this easily.

Rain everywhere and Uttoxeter abandoned

There was overnight rain in almost all parts of the U.K. and the going will be softer than officially forecast at all meetings. Uttoxeter is flooded in places and racing there (in any case the weakest card of the day) has been abandoned. The ground will be heavy at Haydock and also at the Irish meeting at Gowran Park.

Ascot today

A strong Saturday card at Ascot today, with the Grade One Ascot Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET the main feature. Like many of today´s events, this could be dominated by the powerful stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, who each had a double at Newbury´s big meeting yesterday. Henderson runs Riverside Theatre (Barry Geraghty), last time runner-up to Long Run over 3 miles at Kempton, with Kauto Star third.

That is clearly the best form on offer, although it is not clear that the form should be taken literally and Riverside Theatre is in any case a Kempton specialist, but we still expect him to defeat Nicholls´ Pride of Dulcote (Nick Scholfield), whose narrow win from Punchestowns on a foggy day last time has not been boosted by the runner-up. The distance is probably too far for German-bred Gauvain, so we regard Tartak (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), for whom the trip is ideal, as the main threat to the top two.

In the opening novice hurdle at 14.20 Henderson saddles 3 runners, of whom Problema Tic (Geraghty) seems the strongest, and Nicholls supplies a tough opponent in Sonofvic (Scholfield), but here Tornado Bob (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), may spoil the party while the other novice hurdle at 17.05 should lie between Sprinter Sacre (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Nicholls´ French import Polisky (Scholfield), who receives a stone. The same teams also go head to head in the novice chase at 14.50, where Master of the Hall (Henderson) may just about get the better of The Minack (Nicholls).

The two valuable handicaps on the card look very difficult. The hurdle race at 16.35 has 16 runners, but despite top-weight and advancing years, we still feel that course specialist Lough Derg (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) looks a good each-way bet.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tornado Bob - Problema Tic - Sonofvic
2. Race: The Minack - Master Of The Hall - Teddy`S Reflection
3. Race: Royal Tune - Breedsbreeze - Carrickmines
4. Race: Riverside Theatre - Pride Of Dulcote - Tartak
5. Race: Like Minded - Shalone - Lough Derg
6. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Polisky - L`Eminence Grise
7. Race: Persian Snow - Mono Man - Oscara Dara

Friday, February 18, 2011

Dubai Racing Carnival continues

For the first time, there is racing at Meydan on a Friday and the card includes the final two legs of the Meydan Masters jockeys challenge - handicaps over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 16.50 CET and 9 furlongs at 18.05 respectively. We would not be surprised to see Richard Hughes, aboard Age of Reason and Inestimable, win both these events. Main feature here is the Group Two Balanchine for fillies and mares over 9 furlongs on turf at 19.20.

Several of these have already met at this meeting, and Aspectoflove (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) won here a month ago with River Jetez (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon) third; the latter may well reverse the form on 3lbs better terms. A new opponent is Strawberrydaiquiri, who had good form last season for Michael Stoute and is having her first race for Fawzi Nass, but will be ridden by her old partner Ryan Moore.

German-owned War Artist (Rodolphe Collet/ Olivier Peslier) has been below form his last few starts, but must still have a good each way chance under top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dariya (A) - Kandar Du Falgas (A) - Vite Royale (A)
2. Race: Everyday Heroes - War Artist - Mutheeb
3. Race: Age Of Reason - Calvados Blues - Mikhail Glinka
4. Race: Here To Win - Caymans - Atlantic Brave
5. Race: Inestimable - Yirga - War Monger
6. Race: Ashram - Bank Merger - Rakaan
7. Race: River Jetez - Reem - Aspectoflove
8. Race: Golden Sword - Al Shemali - Mr Brock

Sandown and Fakenham

There is also N.H. racing today at Sandown and Fakenham, but at a much lower level. Sandown´s main feature is the traditional Royal Artillery Gold Cup, a 3 mile chase at 16.20 CET, once the Queen Mother´s favourite race, but now a bit of an anachronism, as all horses are ridden by members of the armed forces. Scots Dragoon (Nicky Henderson/ Major Michael) used to be a specialist for such events but seems to be out of form, so we prefer last year´ s winner Mr. Big (Charlie Mann/ Ollie Elwood) and Knighton Combe (Jamie Snowden/ Lucy Horner). Also at Sandown, we expect Megastar (Gary and Jamie Moore), a smart bumper horse that has taken well to hurdling, to win the novice hurdle at 16.55, while Pere Blanc (David Arbuthnot/ Aidan Coleman), who won in a canter at Kempton last week, can follow up under bottom weight in the novices handicap hurdle at 16.30. German-bred Kayef (Michael Scudamore/ Alan O´Keeffe) has an each-way chance in the opening 4yo hurdle at 15.10.

Another runner with a good chance of repeating the 2010 victory in the same race is German-bred Victoria´s Groom (Lucy Wadham/ Dominic Elsworth) in the 3 mile handicap chase at 16.10 at Fakenham. He has run some bad races since a year ago, but as a result he has been dropped to an extremely lenient weight and he always runs his best races on flat tracks such as this one. Our other fancy here is Brunswick Gold (Steve Gollings/ Sam Thomas) in the novice hurdle at 15.35; he was fifth last time in a much better race at Cheltenham and repetition of that form should be good enough here.

Newbury´ s abandoned card repeated today

Today´s card at Newbury is basically the same as last Saturday´s , when racing had to be abandoned after the first race following the sudden deaths of two horses in the paddock through electrocution. However prize-money has had to be reduced and the fields are now slightly different. The main events remain the Grade Two Aon Chase over 3 miles at 13.45 CET and the Grade Two Game Spirit Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong half an hour later.

Paul Nicholls holds a strong hand with two runners in each race. In the former, he can take the first two places with What a Friend (Harry Skelton), owned by football manager Sir Alex Ferguson, and Noland (Tony McCoy). German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint) would have a chance on ratings, but he is much better over hurdles and has not run over fences for more than 2 years. In the latter, Nicholls is represented by Tchico Polos (McCoy) and Take the Breeze (Skelton), but this is quite a tricky event. We do not believe that the smart Cornas can give weight to these rivals and hope to see bottom-weight I´msingingtheblues (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) put some poor recent performances behind him.

The big betting race remains the Totesport Trophy, a handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 14.50, but now only worth half the original value and with only 15 runners instead of the 22 declared last week. Nicky Henderson and Alan King, with 3 runners each could well dominate here. King´s best chances are Salden Licht (Wayne Hutchinson), with a good German pedigree but a lot of weight, and Walkon (Robert Thornton), the subject of very positive vibes end the likely favourite. He was a good runner-up a month ago in a similar race at Ascot, with several of these behind, including Henderson´ s Soldatino, the choice of stable jockey Barry Geraghty. We also like Sweet My Lord (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), now the only Irish-trained runner left in the field.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

N.H. racing at Kelso, Ffos Las and Clonmel

Jumps racing all over the place today - at Kelso in the Scottish Borders, Ffos Las in Wales and Clonmel in Ireland.
Main attraction is clearly the unbeaten Peddlers Cross (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) who looks certain to start at long odds-on in the hurdle race over 2 1/4 miles at 16.50 CET at Kelso. A leading fancy for the Champion Hurdle, he in theory needs only to jump round safely to defeat these opponents, but it should not be forgotten that Zaynar was beaten here last year at 14-1 on! Otherwise the most interesting race here could be the novice hurdle at 14.40, which has16 runners and sees the hurdling debuts of Jukebox Melody (Malcolm Jefferson/ Graham Lee) and Priceless Art (Alan Swinbank/ Barry Keniry), both multiple bumper winners.

At Ffos Las the card also starts with an interesting novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles. Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) won here over 3 miles before running well in better company and can get back on the winning trail. Kerada (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) also won here over 3 miles and is dropping in distance for the novice chase at 16.40, but she won so well that we expect here to score again, while Reblis (Gary and Joshua Moore), in a first-time visor, may take the novices handicap chase at 15.30.

Racing goes ahead at Clonmel after an inspection, but the going will be very heavy. There are maximum fields in most races, but only 9 turn out for the 2 miles 1 furlong chase at 15.55. See U Bob (Paul Nolan/ Mark Walsh) was a smart hurdler and has been running - without much success- in better class races over fences; he is top-rated here and we hope that he wins.

Meydan Masters at Dubai Racing Carnival

The Dubai Racing Carnival continues with a double meeting this week, today and tomorrow, featuring the Meydan Masters, an international jockeys challenge comprising three handicaps (two today, one tomorrow) for which the mounts are drawn by ballot. 12 of the world´s leading jockeys will take part, most of whom of course (Dettori, Moore, Peslier and co, and including William Buick, back from Injury) are here already.

Today´s races are at 17.40 CET over a mile and at 18.55 over 11 furlongs, both on tapeta. Obviously they are very open events, our tentative suggestions are Quick Wit (Saeed bin Suroor/ Buick) and Halicarnassus (Mick Channon/ Gerald Mosse) respectively. Main feature today is the Group Two Al Fahidi Fort over a mile on turf at 19.35. Raihana (Mike de Kock/ Chtistophe Soumillon) was a very easy winner here last week and may be able to successfully step up in class; Al Malki/ Ryan Moore) - a Baden-Baden winner in 2009- and Bushman (David Slimcock/ Buick) look dangerous.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Enak - Emmrooz - Lancelot
2. Race: J J The Jet Plane - Silaah - Invincible Ash
3. Race: Haatheq - Final Drive - Mufarrh
4. Race: Opinion Poll - Drunken Sailor - Star Empire
5. Race: Monte Alto - Prizefighting - Emirates Champion
6. Race: Raihana - Hearts Of Fire - Our Giant
7. Race: Yaa Wayl - Hujaylea - Warsaw

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

N.H. racing at Leicester, Musselburgh and Punchestown

Three more rather low-level meetings today, and easily the best horse on view is Fiveforthree (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) who runs in the opening race at 14.15 CET at the Irish meeting at Punchestown. The going will be very heavy here and there is an all-hurdles card, with racing taking place on the inside track. Fiveforthree has not run for nearly 2 years, but he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2008 and is almost unbeatable on his old rating, this trip of 2 miles is too short as well, as he is being aimed at the World Hurdle, so he is not a good bet at the likely short price, but it is still difficult to see him getting beaten. Ex-German Der Speiler (JG Coogan/ Barry Geraghty) should finish in the money. Another ex-German horse with place claims is Heavenly Blues, whom we remember winning 4 races for Hermann-Josef Koll in 2006. He is now trained by Ted Walsh and will be partnered by daughter Katie in the conditions race half an hour later, where Mullins once again sad dles the hot favourite,Call the Police (Emmet Mullins). Mullins can also score with Pickapocketortwo in the maiden hurdle at 15.45 and Alfred James in the bumper at 17.15, both ridden by son Paddy.

At Leicester, L´Homme de Nuit (Jim Best/ Denis O´Regan) is another German-bred with place chances. he runs in the novice chase at 15.40; he unseated his jockey, through no fault of his own, at Plumpton on Monday, and with better luck can get involved here, although Bathwick Quest (Brendan Powell/ Tom Scudamore) looks a more logical selection. O´Regan possibly has better prospects on Nicky Richards´ Lahib the Fifth in the handicap chase at 15.10. Best bet here is Battlecry in the hunter chase at 16.10; trained by Nigel Twiston-Davis and ridden by Willie, his talented younger son, he used to be a smart performer and came back to form last time with an easy point-to-point win with this teenager aboard.

Dontpaytheferryman (Brian Ellison/ Paul Gallagher) is an interesting runner in the handicap hurdle at 16.50 at Musselburgh. He has had a great run on the all-weather, winning 4 of his 5 starts, and is still well handicapped over sticks. Fellow lightweights Kaolak and Pokfulham look the main dangers. Irish trainer Ian Ferguson sends over two runners and both have good chances- Zemsky (Derek O´Connor) in the hunter chase at 15.50 and Posh Bird (Jason Maguire), who has top-weight in the handicap hurde at 17.20, although last weekend´ s easy Ayr winner Locked Inthepocket (Pauline Robeson/ Timmy Murphy) could be a problem.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Newcastle, Folkestone and Southwell

Once again, very poor racing at today´s 3 meetings, and Newcastle is not certain to go ahead after heavy rain at the weekend and overnight frost. A second inspection is due later this morning. Should racing be on, we expect Thornton Alice (Richard Phillips/ Sean Quinlan), upped in distance, to win the mares novice hurdle at 15.40 CET, while we also fancy Sunday´s easy Hereford winner Decent Lord at 16.40 and course specialist Its Teescomponents at 17.10. Best thing of the day should be Asturienne (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the beginners chase at 16.00 Folkestone. She has only 3 moderate opponents and was easily the best of these over hurdles; she ran well enough over fences last time when chasing home th useful Kerada at Newbury and that form is certainly good enough for her to score here. However she will be at a very short price, and a more interesting betting race is the novice hurdle an hour later.

King and Choc have another chance here with last-time-out winner Union Island, who was also quite useful on the flat, and he should hold the other previous winners, but Mr. Muddle (Sheena West/ Jamie Goldstein) has been runner-up on all his hurdles starts and must be placed again, while German-bred Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Colin Bolger), although well beaten on both British starts, could run well at a big price. There are also two German-breds in the handicap hurdle at 17.30, and while Idris appears to have lost form completely, we expect Vacario (Mark Gillard/ Tom Phelan) to run well. He rarely wins but has been in the first 5 on his last 12 starts, and should be in the frame this time.

The card at Southwell on the all-weather is very uninspiring, but we expect the improved Mush Mir (Jim Boyle/ Steven Craine) to complete a quick course hat-trick in the 2 mile handicap at 16.50, while Home (Brendan Powell/ Chris Catlin), all of whose 5 flat wins have come here, should win again at 17.50.

Newbury Saturday card rescheduled for Friday

Last Saturday´s card at Newbury, which was abandoned after the first race following the death of two horses in the paddock (believed to have been electrocuted by a live cable) will now be run this Friday. Although the cause of the tragedy is still not 100% certain, it seems that the problem has been cleared up. The races to be run on Friday include the important Aon Chase and Game Spirit Chase as well as the Totesport Gold Trophy, one of the biggest betting races of the year. The prize-money will be much lower and it is not clear how many of the original entries will run on Friday.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Catterick, Plumpton and Wolverhampton

After the excellent racing over the weekend, it is back to modest sport today, with low level jump racing at Catterick and Plumpton and even lower level flat racing on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. The best horse on view today is probably Chamirey (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who appears to have little to beat in the novice chase over an extended 3 miles at 16.20 CET at Catterick. The handicap chase here over 2 miles 3 furlongs at 17.20 could go to Heavenly Chorus (Keith and James Reveley), who has won his last two races, both over shorter here, but also stays this trip. However she has gone up 18 lbs, so is no certainty, and we feel that Double Vodka (Chris Grant/ Denis O´Regan) can make life difficult for her.

There are small fields at Plumpton - 5 of the 7 races have 6 runners or less- but winners may still be hard to find, especially as the going will be very heavy. One who should certainly act on the ground is German-bred L´Homme de Nuit (Jim Best/ Andrew Thornton), who is a 3/4 brother to the mud-loving group winner La Boum. We therefore give him a sporting chance in the beginners chaase at 17.00, even though he faces opponents who are rated his superior. Keki Buku (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), runner-up to the useful Qozak last time, looks the pick of them. Otherwise we are interested in Remember Now in the novice hurdle at 16.00; this half-brother to Champion Hurdler Binocular is Tony McCoy´s only ride of the day.

Easily the best race at Wolverhampton is the conditions event over 8 1/2 furlongs at 17.40. The progressive 4yo Norman Orpen (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer) has won his last 3 races, but meets stronger opposition now. The best form in the race is the second place of Fighter Boy (David Barron/ Phillip Makin) in a listed race at Newmarket last April; however he has not run since and may need the race. There is little between Lowther (Alan Bailey/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) and Suits Me (Tom Tate/ Micky Fenton), who were separated by inches on their last start in a similar event at Kempton. This is a race to watch rather than to bet on, but, if forced to make a choice we would go for Suits Me

Sunday, February 13, 2011

N.H. racing at Exeter, Hereford and Naas (Ireland)

no all-weather racing today (thank heavens!) and racing over jumps at Exeter, Hereford and Navan. As is usual on a Sunday, the best sport comes from Ireland and the Navan card includes three Grade Two races. 9 are engaged in the Flyingbolt novice chase at 15.20 CET, but 3 of them ran yesterday in the Grade One at Leopardstown; if we assume, as seems 99% certain, that they will not run, then the race should lie between Saludos (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Torphichen (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara). Saludos has run badly at other tracks but is 2 from 2 here, and with the stable in great form, is our confident selection. The Boyne Hurdle at 15.50 should go to Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Andrew Lynch); she has won 8 of her 15 starts, but has always been wanting behind the likes of Hurricane Fly and Solwhit. There is nothing of that calibre in this field and she should score from Shinrock Paddy. Murphy can follow up with Quito de la Roque /Davy Russell) in the 3 mil e novice chase, but Royal de la Thinte (Jim Dreaper/ Lynch), who fell last time after making most of the running, is now 5 lbs better off and could be dangerous.
Main feature at Exeter is the listed novice hurdle at 15.40. Spirit Son (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is the clear favourite here; he had good form in France and won in good style on his British debut. Another e-French horse Cedre Bleu (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Thomas) could be the main threat, but we are also interested in the running of Lady Willa (Mark Gillard/ Andrew Thornton). This modest performer has shown suddenly improved form to win her last two races; this is far tougher but she gets lots of weight and could run a good race at a big price. Nicholls should in any case score with Definity (Nick Scholfield) in the graduation chase at 16.10, while we expect Mamlook (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) can concede weight all round in the novice chase at 17.40.
Best event at Hereford could be the maiden hurdle at 16.00. Our Mick (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) form choice here, having been placed in his last 3 races after winning his bumper. Don´t Turn Bach (Nicholls/ Harry Skelton) was a decent bumper horse in Ireland, but he jumped badly on his two British starts over sticks; if he gets this problem sorted, he could be a big danger, while Milo Milan Richard Lee/ Charlie Post), from a small stable in great form, has an obvious each-way chance, and debutant Storm Survivor is probably the main reason for Tony McCoy´s presence here today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lios A Choill - Jetson - Bog Warrior
2. Race: Mikael D`Haguenet - Quel Esprit - Saludos
3. Race: Voler La Vedette - Shinrock Paddy - Rigour Back Bob
4. Race: Lean Times - Dantes King - Avoca King
5. Race: Quito De La Roque - Royal De La Thinte - The Hurl
6. Race: Take A Stroll - Guestofthenation - Shamiran
7. Race: Lord Gale - Garryncurra - Lady Olwyn

Saturday, February 12, 2011

4 Grade One races at Leopardstown

Last Sunday´s abandoned Irish meeting has been rescheduled for today and most of the original entries have stood their ground on an excellent card with the ground expected to be very testing.
Main feature is the Hennessy Gold Cup over 3 miles at 16.15 CET. Joncol (Paul Nolan/ Aidan Cawley) won this race a year ago and holds a leading chance again, although he finished behind Money Trix (Nicky Richards/ Davy Russell) in the Lexus Chase here at the Christmas meeting. In the same race, The Listener (Nick Williams/ Andrew McNamara), another British-trained grey, finished fifth after making most of the running, while Kempes (Willie Mullins/ David Casey) was still in contention when falling. It could be close between these four, but we make The Listener (each way), who loves it here, our selection.
Mullins has two runners in the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at 14.45, and Mikael d´Haguenet (Paul Townend) looks the stable selected over Quel Esprit (Emmet Mullins), despite a poor effort last time, However Magnanimity (Dessie Hughes/ Davy Russell) could well beat them both.
There are some great trainers in Ireland, but surely Dermot Weld is the king of them all, and we expect Unccompanied (Townend) to take the 4yo hurdle at 14.10 and also hope to see Hidden Universe (Robbie McNamara) run well in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at 15.45. he is taking a huge leap in class - as is German-bred Shot in the Hip- but he won his maiden so impressively that we feel that he is up to the task.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Unaccompanied - Indian Daudaie - Sailors Warn
2. Race: Mikael D`Haguenet - Quel Esprit - Magnanimity
3. Race: Missgiloney - Rory Anna - Kylebeg Krystle
4. Race: Zaidpour - Hidden Universe - Shot From The Hip
5. Race: Joncol - Money Trix - Kempes
6. Race: Rahan De Marcigny - Askthemaster - Sounds Of Jupiter
7. Race: On The Fringe - King Johns Castle - Rudi Trucker
8. Race: Champagne Agent - Caolaneoin - Really Unique

rest of Newbury

the rest of the Newbury card is also very classy, with several Cheltenham hopes on view and the top stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson strongly represented.
We expect Nicholls, whose stable is coming back to top form, to get the better of today´s exchanges and predict that Al Ferof (Harry Skelton) will take the opening novice hurdle at 14.20 CET, What a Friend (Skelton) to giive weight to Henderson´s Riverside Theatre (Barry Geraghty) in the Grade 2 Aon Chase at 15.25, and Tchico Polos (Tony McCoy) to defeat Henderson´s French Opera in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at 16.00. In the last-named event we also expect I´msingingtheblues (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), getting weight all round, to run a big race.

Henderson should however win the main event at Warwick with Finian´s Rainbow (Andrew Tinkler), a leading hope for the Arkle Chase. There are only 4 runners in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novice Chase at 15.40, but they all have good form to their credit. However Finian´ s Rainbow, who has won both his this season´s starts in excellent style, stands out.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Al Ferof - Kid Cassidy - Oasis Knight
2. Race: Awesome Freddie - Cappagh - Sangfroid
3. Race: Riverside Theatre - What A Friend - Fair Along
4. Race: Tchico Polos - French Opera - Cornas
5. Race: Solix - Salden Licht - Walkon
6. Race: Aiteen Thirtythree - Tarablaze - Jokers Legacy
7. Race: Persian Snow - Ericht - Star Neuville

Totesport Trophy at Newbury

the Totesport Trophy this afternoon at Newbury is the most valuable handicap hurdle in British racing and has attracted a really srong field with 23 runners, none of whom can be totally discarded. It is one of the biggest betting races of the year and the market is as usual wide open, further complicated by the fact that some of the leading trainers have multiple entries.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Al Ferof - Kid Cassidy - Oasis Knight
2. Race: Awesome Freddie - Cappagh - Sangfroid
3. Race: Riverside Theatre - What A Friend - Fair Along
4. Race: Tchico Polos - French Opera - Cornas
5. Race: Solix - Salden Licht - Walkon
6. Race: Aiteen Thirtythree - Tarablaze - Jokers Legacy
7. Race: Persian Snow - Ericht - Star Neuville

Friday, February 11, 2011

Kempton, Musselburgh and Southwell

There is racing at Kempton for the third day in succession, but this time the action is over the jumps, and the top trainers Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Alan King will all fancy their chances. They clash in the beginners chase at 15.05 CET, in which we give preference to Patsy Finnegan (King / Robert Thornton), who made a decent comeback recently after almost 2 years off and whose stable is in great form.

American Trilogy (Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) was easily the best of these over hurdles, but his efforts over fences have so far been disappointing. The same goes for Nicky Henderson´s Punchestowns (Barry Geraghty), who has been a beaten favourite now 3 times running. Pasco (Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) is an obvious danger, but we slightly prefer Crack Away Jack (Emma Lavelle/ Wayne Hutchinson). Plein Pouvoir (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) was such an easy winner last week at Chepstow that he can go in again under a penalty in the handicap chase at 17.20; the distance is further today, but Kempton is a relatively easy track. Alan King has 3 runners in the novice hurdle at 15.35 but jockey bookings strongly suggest that consistent Sweet Irony (Choc) is the stable selected, but Oscar Papa (Nick Gifford/ Liam Treadwell), from another in-form stable, looks dangerous; he has flopped twice, but his earlier form was good enough for him to take this.

Trainer Howard Johnson and jockey Brian Hughes look the team to follow at Musselburgh, where they have fancied runners in several events. Sitting Tenant has been off the track for 15 months, but if anywhere near peak form should win the beginners chase at 15.25, while Stormy Weather, top weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.00, and Little Hercules, a useful bumper horse making his debut over sticks, can score at 16.35. Logans Run at 17.10 and Rupert Lamb at 17.45 also have chances, but in these races we perfer course specialist Nelliedonethat (Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) and Aikman (James Ewart/ Harry Haynes) respectively.

A selling handicap on the all-weather is not the best betting medium, but on a very poor Southwell card the only runner to appeal to us is Yossi (Richard Guest/ Andrew Heffernan) at 15.50. He has not won for ages, but has repeatedly been placed, many times over this CD, and his opponents are all look woefully out of form.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Racing today in the U.K. and Ireland

N.H. racing this afternoon at Huntingdon, Taunton and Thurles (Ireland). While the ground remains very soft/ heavy in Ireland, it has dried out rapidly in England and the going will be much faster at the two British meetings than has been the case in recent weeks, so a few surprises are more than possible. The 4yo hurdle at 16.10 CET at Huntingdon is an interesting event, and Media a Luz (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geragthy) looks certain to start favourite; she fell last time at Kempton when looking the likely winner, and receives 15 lbs from the main danger Pantxoa (Alan King/ Robert Thornton). However we still feel that the latter can come out on top. The handicaps all look tricky; as a general rule, it is not a good idea to back maidens in handicaps, but we fancy two of them here - Ceepeegee (Colin and Joe Tizzard) at 15.40 and Tricky Tree (Pam Sly/CP Geoghegan) at 16.40.

Another maiden who could go well is German-bred First Smash (Milton Harris/ Jimmy Derham) in the novice handicap hurdle at 16.30 at Taunton. This is quite a hot race with Credit Swap (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), hat-trick-chasing Arrayan (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) and Highway Code (Richard Lee/ Giles Hawkins) all engaged, but the Monsun gelding, who could not act on the heavy ground last time, could well be underestimated. Another possible German-bred winner here is Olivino (Bernard Llewellyn/ Isabel Tompsett) in the claiming hurdle at 15.00, who appears to have only recent CD winner Chrysander (Evan Williams/ Paul Molony) to beat.

There are the usual huge fields at the Irish meeting at Thurles, and Willie Mullins once again looks the trainer to follow. Kiltulagh Queen, in the mares beginners chase at 14.45, and Lambro in the maiden hurdle for older horses, both ridden by Paul Townend, and Shifa, with the trainer´ s son Paddy in the saddle at 15.45, have good prospects, although none of them is likely to start at a generous price.

Indomito at Meydan

Indomito (Pavel Vovcenko/ Wayne Smith) is the only German-trained runner at this year´s Dubai Racing Carnival and we think that he has a good chance in the Imtiaz Handicap over 7 furlongs on tapeta that opens today´s card at 15.25 CET. He ran a good race over this CD 3 weeks ago, and is expected to be fitter this time. He can reverse the form with that day´s runner-up Yirga (Ali al Raihe/ Royston Ffrench, but there is plenty of new opposition, including Mike de Kock´s pair Atlantic Sport (Kevin Shea) and Clearly Silver (Christophe Soumillon). Rakaan (Jamie Osborne/ Ted Durcan) finished just in front of the former last time, and comes into the reckoning as does Ayun Tara (Xavier Nakkschdji/ Gregoire Benoist). Obviously this is a tough race, but we hope that Indomito can be the first German winner at Meydan, and the first at the Carnival since the glory days of Quijano.

Main event at Meydan today is the UAE 2,000 Guineas at 18.30. Zanzamar (de Kock/ Richard Hills) was an easy winner of the trial and should go close, but ex-Argentinian Paulinho (Herman Brown/ Ryan Moore) and Ascot winner Abjar (Clive Brittain/ Durcan) could be dangerous.

The other big feature here is the listed Firbreak Stakes over a mile at 17.50. Mike de Kock, with 3 runners, holds a strong hand here, and both Imbongi (Shea) and Musir (Soumillon) should get involved. Musir was unbeaten in 3 starts here last year, including the local 2,000 Guineas and Derby. Bankable (Herman Brown/ Moore) just beat Imbongi here a year ago but is not certain to confirm the form at these weights, while Skysurfers (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) is rather inconsistent but still seems the best of the 3 Godolphin runners.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Market Rasen, Sedgefield and Southwell

Three more moderate fixtures today, with the best racing coming from Market Rasen, where most of the top jockeys are in action. Tony McCoy rdes the first two favourites for Nicky Henderson, but the stable´s form is not quite so good at the moment and we are a bit dubious However the combination should score with Quantativeeasing in the novice chase at 15.35 CET, who has only two opponents, the better of which is the German-bred Fin Vin de Leu (Charlie Mann/ Daryl Jacob); however, even in receipt of 10 lbs, it is hard to see him beating the favourite. We also like the lightly-raced Silver Roque (Henrietta Knight/ Andrew Thornton) in the novices handicap hurdle here at 16.05 and recent winner Mister Wiseman (Nigel Hawke/ David Dennis) in the handicap chase half an hour later.

At Sedgefield, N. Irish trainer James Lambe has a couple of runners and we expect Vivaldi (EJ O´Connell) to go close in the novice hurdle at 15.25; he has a huge weight but easily the best form in the race. Any Given Moment (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), a heavily-backed flop on his hurdling debut, looks the danger in receipt of a stone. The Knoxs (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) has fallen the last twice, but still looks the likeliest winner of the beginners chase at 15.55, while Overlady (James Ewart/ Harry Haynes), who has been off for almost 2 years, could go close in the handicap hurdle over 3 1/2 miles half an hour later if anywhere near her old form.

Of several German-breds running today, the one with the best winning chance in our view is Bright Sparky in the second division of the amateur riders handicap at 14.45 at Southwell. He usually runs well here, and although he has been off the track since October, his trainer Mick Easterby knows the time of day, while his rider Serena Brotherton is very experienced and has already won on him. Mediterranean Sea (John Jenkins/ Steven Craine) is our fancy in the handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 17.45; her record here is one win and 5 places from 6 starts and she should certainly finish in the frame again.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Lingfield (N.H.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

With Ayr off, all we are left with today are two extremely poor cards at Lingfield (this time over jumps) and Wolverhampton on the all-weather. Form horses are few and far between, but one who comes into that category is Vino Griego (Gary and Jamie Moore) in the beginners chase at 15.05 CET at Lingfield. He was a decent hurdler and ran well over fences last time when runner-up at Cheltenham in a much better race than this.

He looks the day´s banker. Not Til Monday (John Jenkins/ Timmy Murphy) made all for an easy win at Plumpton last time and can follow up in the novice hurdle at 15.35; the only danger should be debutant Cresswell Crusader (Tony Honeyball/ Rachael Green). who has useful bumper form. Master d´Or (Mrs Leech/ Paul Moloney) won on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and can take the handicap chase at 16.10. Topless (Neil Mulholland/ Mick Quinlan) once again looks likely to be placed; he has been runner-up 5 times running, but has in fact never won in 22 starts over fences. Rimini (Dai Rees/ JH Mathias) was beaten a long way when 4th at Fontwell yesterday, but if he turns out again, even that form could be good enough to take the handicap hurdle at 17.45.

The card at Wolverhampton, is, if anything. even worse, with all 7 races either class 5 or 6. The opening 5 furlongs handicap is the trickiest event, with 12 runners, including our old friends 14yo The Tatling (Russell Kennemore) and 11yo Cape Royal (Richard Kingscote), both trained by Milton Bradley in the line-up. Between them they have run over 300 times and won 28 races, but both are arguably better on turf. We would love to see one of them score today, but on recent form Your Gifted (Pat Morris/ Mathew Cosham) must be preferred, while CD specialist Decider (Ron Harris/ Luke Morris) also has a chance. Orpenindeed (Frank Sheridan/ Jack Doyle), who has won 4 of his last 6 races, 3 of them here, should take the 7 furlongs seller at 16.30, while Striker Torres (Geoff Oldroyd/ Adam Kirby), never out of the first two here, can win the handicap over the same trip at 17.05.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

LEOPARDSTOWN ABANDONED!

Bad news from Ireland; today´s top N.H. meeting at Leopardstown has been abandoned as the track is waterlogged in places. This is a bitter blow as the card, which includes FOUR Grade One events, is one of the best of the entire jumps season in Ireland. No doubt these races will be rescheduled, but there is no news on that as yet.

N.H. racing at Musselburgh and Fontwell

With Leopardstown off, the action today is restricted to Musselburgh and Fontwell, with the former track offering by far the best sport. Some of the the races are named after events at the Cheltenham Festival, but it must be doubted that they can in any way be regarded as significant trials. The Scottish Triumph Hurdle for 4yo´s at 15.30 CET could be won by Titan de Sardi (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler), who as a maiden receives quite a lot of weight from the horses with winning form, but he is unlikely to be in the top dozen of Henderson´s juvenile hurdlers. Henderson sends quite a strong team from his Lambourn base on the long journey to Scotland. The trainer won 4 races yesterday, but several other fancied runners from the yard have flopped recently, so that it cannot be claimed that the yard is in fantastic form. However we expect him to come home with some winners today, and Skint (David Bass) in the novice hurdle at 14.30, Pipe Banner (Bass), owned by the Queen , in the handicap hurdle at 15.00, and Dark Shadow (Tinkler) in the bumper at 17.40 also have winning chances. Best betting race here is the so-called Scottish County Hurdle, a handicap over 2 miles at 16.35 with 15 runners and very open. David Pipe undertakes an even longer journey than Henderson, and his strong front-runner Hunterview (Tom Scudamore) is clearly on the short list after a good performance against Salden Licht at Exeter. Kutu Country (Tom Tate/ James Reveley) also ran well against a King hotpot last time and is also considered. German-bred Los Nadis (Ryan Mania) is one of two entries by local trainer Jim Goldie and has not been seen since winning here on the flat in June, but would have a decent chance if in form. Leslingtaylor (John Quinn/ Dougie Costello) is another to be considered in the day´s trickiest race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Skint - Moon Indigo - Gentleman Jeff
2. Race: Viva Colonia - Pipe Banner - Sunarri
3. Race: Titan De Sarti - Music Of The Moor - Eltheeb
4. Race: Nafaath - Gilbarry - Divers
5. Race: Hunterview - Kudu Country - European Dream
6. Race: Earl Grez - Elite Land - Follow The Sun
7. Race: Dark Shadow - The Tracey Shuffle - Think Green




It is difficult to get enthused about today´s Fontwell card. Two German-breds which could be placed at big prices are Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Leighton Aspell) in the 4yo hurdle at 14.20 and Amore Mio in the handicap hurdle at 16.25. The former has an excellent Ullmann pedigree and had good 2yo form in Germany; he was beaten out of sight on his only British start but would not have to be anything special to figure in this company. If the ground is not too soft, Amore Mio, who has come down a lot in the weights after some below-par performances, could run well, and another who would be suited by drying ground is Extra Bold (Emma Lavelle/ Sam Thomas) in the handicap chase at 17.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Omaruru - Kuilsriver - Cuckoo Rock
2. Race: Ilewin Tom - Jack`S Lad - Bertenbar
3. Race: Captain Kirkton - Featherbed Lane - Get It On
4. Race: Stop The Show - Portrait Royale - Brushford
5. Race: If I Had Him - Erdeli - Whipperway
6. Race: Extra Bold - Sordid Secret - Folie A Deux
7. Race: Queens Bay - Spirit D`Armor - Homer Run

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Ffos Las and Wetherby

Nicky Henderson also saddles some of his stars at Ffos Las and all eyes will be on Oscar Whisky (Barry Geraghty) in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at 15.40 CET. Not only does he have the best form here, he also runs in the colours of Dai Walters, owner of the racecourse. However this is no walkover, and both Barizan (Evan Williams/ Denis O´Regan), runner-up in last year´s Triumph Hurdle, and the Irish challenger Won in the Dark (Sabrina Harty/ Tom O´Brien) could be dangerous. Henderson and Geraghty can also score with Lord Raglan at 15.05 and Sprinter Sacre at 14.0, although the latter faces strong competition from David Pipe´s Kazzene (Tom Scudamore), who was possibly lucky to win on his debut but still looks capable of going on to better things. The handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles at 16.10 looks very tricky, with few of the runners proven at the distance. I´moncloudnine and Maktu cetainly are, having run well in the Welsh Grand National 4 weeks ago, but we fancy Triggerma n (Philip Hobbs/ Tom O´Brien), who has fallen the last twice, but if he puts in a clear round, should go close.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Kazzene - Fishoutofwater
2. Race: Lord Ragnar - Jokers Legacy - Acrai Rua
3. Race: Oscar Whisky - Black Jack Blues - Won In The Dark
4. Race: Blazing Bailey - I`Moncloudnine - Ballyfitz
5. Race: Shoegazer - Oursininlaw - Je Ne Sais Plus
6. Race: Loose Preformer - Iron Chancellor - Definite Dawn
7. Race: Valley Lad - Henok - Sharlene`S Quest




Wetherby also stages a group race today, the Towtown Novice Chase over an extended 3 miles at 16.15. Wayward Prince (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello) and Hollo Ladies (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) stand out here; both were Grade One winners over hurdles and are recent winners over fences. Wayward Prince´s form looks stronger, but he has to concede 7 lbs to his rival, so there could be little in it. The 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.10 is another good race here. Frankie Figg /Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) and Lease Lend (Tim Easterby/ Richie McGrath) both scored well last time, but have been punished by the handicapper, so we prefer Gansey (Sue Smith/ Peter Buchanan), who fell last time but should be capable of winning in this grade.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sundae Best - Baraathen - Vin Rose
2. Race: Trustan Times - Scriptwriter - Mizen Station
3. Race: Frankie Figg - Lease Lend - Regal Heights
4. Race: Double Expresso - Palypso De Creek - Always Bold
5. Race: Wayward Prince - Hollo Ladies - Cape Tribulation
6. Race: Baby Run - Offshore Account - Viking Rebel
7. Race: Distime - Cool Steel - Medinas

Henderson to star at Sandown?

This could be a red-letter day for trainer Nicky Henderson, who saddles several of his Cheltenham contenders at Sandown. He is having a great season, but it must also be said that some hot favourites from the stable have flopped in recent days. He starts off with talking horse Moose Moran (Tony McCoy) who makes his N.H. debut in the 4yo hurdle at 14.25 CET, and has already been well backed for Cheltenham. H ws very useful on the flt, fifth in th Queen´s Vse at Rolk scot,m where he fibished wll clr f Mgic Prspcet (Chli Mnn/ Petr Toole). Of those with form over hurdles, Professeur Emery (Warren Greatrex/ Jason Maguire), 3rd here last time, looks easily the best.

Half an hour later, Henderson´s stable star Binocular (McCoy) appears to have a simple task in the Contenders Hurdle, where he has only 3 opponents, one of them his pacemaker. He will be at an unbackable price as he completes his preparation for the defense of his Champion Hurdle title. The mare Dorabelle (Donald McCain/ Maguire) has won 3 of her last 4 races and receives 15 lbs, but is still hard to fancy, and Siberian Tiger (Evan Williams/ Daryl Jacob), off the track since the autumn but useful on the flat and over hurdles, should follow Binocular home.

Main event at Sandown is the Grade One Scilly Isles novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.25, where Henderson saddles two runners, both with chances - Mr. Gardner (Felix de Giles) and Nadiya de la Vega (Andrew Tinkler). However this is a very open race. Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) is top-rated here, but we give slight preference to Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), runner-up on his 3 starts so far this season. Big betting race here is the Heroes Handicap Hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.00 with 20 runners. Paul Nicholls has a great record in this and his runner Prince Tom (Ian Pophan) comes on to the short list, together with Like a Hurricane (King/ Thornton), and Kilcrea Kim (Hobbs/ Johnson).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Moose Moran - Professeur Emery - Kumbeshwar
2. Race: Binocular - Dorabelle - Siberian Tiger
3. Race: Medermit - Captain Chris - Nadiya De La Vega
4. Race: Lush Life - Mister Hyde - Alfie Spinner
5. Race: Leading Contender - Take The Breeze - Khachaturian
6. Race: Call Me A Legend - Anquetta - Noble Alan
7. Race: Heez A Cracker - Royale`S Charter - Hong Kong Harry

Naas abandoned

Today´s Irish N.H. meeting at Naas has been abandoned following heavy overnight rain. In Britain high winds are forecast in most areas, but despite yesterday´s late abandonment at Catterick for this reason, there seems to be no danger to todays´s high-profile N.H. meetings at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby

Friday, February 04, 2011

Mark Johnston to continue winning run

Yorkshire trainer Mark Johnston has his string in tremendous form; 7 of his last 10 runners have won, and in fact he boasts a strike rate of over 50% on the all-weather this year. We expect him to improve this record today with two more winners at Lingfield, Bailey´s Agincourt in the 10 furlongs maiden at 15.20 CET and Luckbealadytonight in the 3yo handicap at 16.25, both partnered by Joe Fanning.

The card at Lingfield is otherwise undistinguished, and the same goes for the evening meeting at Wolverhampton - with one exception. The 6 furlongs conditions race at 20.00 has only 6 runners but all of them have useful all-weather form to their credit. Atlantic Story (Mick Easterby/ Phillip Makin) and Brave Prospector (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Tom Queally) share top weight but they are also the highest-rated in the field and we expect them to fight out the finish.

N.H. racing at Chepstow, Catterick and Bangor

Three jumps meetings today, two of them in Wales. Chepstow has the best card, and probably the best runner today - Join Together (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield), who goes for the 3 mile novice hurdle at 15.05 CET. The trainer regards this one as a Cheltenham possible, in which case he certainly ought to see off today´s opponents. State Benefit (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) looks easily the best of them, but we cannot see him conceding 7 lbs to the Nicholls hope. Henderson and Geraghty should however take the novice chase half an hour later with Surfing, who appears to have little to beat. We also like Our Father (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) here, who can maintain his unbeaten record in the novice hurdle at 14.30, and Najca de Thaix /Jon Spearing/ Jamie Moore) at 16.40, who is in the form of his life at the age of 10; he won over this CD in November, and 10 days ago ran out a ridiculously easy winner at Leicester, for which he only carries the obligatory 7 lbs penalty.

There are only 3 runners in the main event at Bangor, a novice chase at 16,30, but all three have useful form. Wymott (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) has won twice over fences and although he has to concede weight to the other pair, he is the selection, as he could also be Cheltenham-bound. McCain always does well at this track and could follow up with Youngstown (Maguire) in the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.05. He can confirm Sandown form with Ma Yahab (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman), from another yard which must also be followed here, and can already have taken the opening novice hurdle with Credit Swap.

No stars on view at Catterick today, where Malcolm Jefferson and Graham Lee could be the team to follow. They can take the stayers handicap hurdle at 15.45 with Mac Aeda and the novice hurdle half an hour later with Jukebox Melody. We also expect Heavenly Chorus (Keith and James Reveley) to complete a CD hat-trick at 16.50 here.

Thursday, February 03, 2011

U.K. and Irish racing today

Very poor sport in the U.K. and Ireland today, especially compared to the goings-on at Meydan. However with the weather improving - warmer temperatures and high winds- there appear to be no problems with abandonments for the next few days. Wincanton has the best racing in Britain, and Nicky Henderson, still on the crest of wave, can land another short-priced double with Osric, in the novices handicap chase at 15.50 CET and Gibb River in the novice hurdle at 16.20, both partnered by Barry Geraghty. Both have to give weight away, but look a class above the opposition. The hunter chase season has now started, and the race at 17.20 has attracted some runners who were very smart in their younger days, many of them now coming off long break. Paul Nicholls is always a trainer to follow at this track and his Ornais (Ryan Mahon) could be the winner here, even though he has been off the track for 2 years. Halcon Genelardais (Alan King/ Mr. R.Jarrett), who has not run since the Scotti sh Grand National, and Moncadou (Jonjo O´Neill/ Alan Berry), last seen when runner-up in the Foxhunters at Aintree, also in April, are also of interest.

The N.H. meeting at Towcester is very modest. 12yo Kinkeel (Tony Carroll/ Lee Edwards) runs just about every week, but after a string of poor efforts, many of them in better company, finally won over this CD 11 days ago and can follow up at 15.10. Hobb´ s Dream (Neil Mulholland/ MJ Quinlan) is much improved and has won his last two races with great ease. However his rating has shot up, and in the 3 mile handicap chase at 16.10 we prefer the chances of Atherstone Hill (Robin Dickin/ Wayne Kavanagh), a recent CD winner getting lots of weight.

There are the usual huge fields at the Irish meeting at Clonmel. Best race here is the listed novice hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.15, in which Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with Bishopsfurze (Paul Townend) and Skorcher (Emmet Mullins) engaged. Bishopsfart has to concede weight but has really come into form and is our selection, but Fists of Fury (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) also looks dangerous. The 2 1/2 mile chase at 17.17 is another good race. German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) ran really well in a big handicap over 3 miles at Christmas and this trip is more suitable.

The cards at the two all-weather meetings, Southwell this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening, are very poor, but we would like to mention one of our favourite horses Cape Royal (Milton Bradley/ Richard Kingscote), who runs in the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 at Southwell. The 11yo has a career record of 12 wins and 40 places from 154 starts, and although his recent form is poor, he is always capable of springing a surprise in this company.

Dubai Racing Carnival- third day

today is the third day of the Dubai Racing Carnival at Meydan and has the best card so far, with 3 highlights- the UAE 1000 Guineas at 16.40 CET, the Group Three Shindagha Sprint over 6 furlongs at 17.55 and the al Maktoum Challenge round 3 over 1900 metres at 19.10, a major trial for the World Cup; these 3 races are all run on the tapeta track. The last-named event is only a Group Three but the field is worthy of a Group One, and indeed 5 of the 9 runners have already won at that level. The likeliest winners are Gitano Hernando (Marco Botti/ Weichong Marwing), a very smart performer on artificial surfaces and last time out 4th in the Champion Stakes, South African Bold Silvano (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon), one of his powerful stable´s main hopes for World Cup Day, and Al Shemali (Ali al Raihe/ Royston Ffrench), who won the Dubai Duty Free last year.

The sprint is not quite as strong, and should mainly concern Our Giant (de Kock/ Soumillon), who won the trial for this, and the runner-up from that race Inxile (David and Adrian Nicholls), with Dohasa (Ibrahim Mohammed/ Ryan Moore) the main danger.

The 8 runners for the 1,000 Guineas include 7 of the field from the trial, which was win by Reem (de Kock/ Pat Cosgrave) from stable companion Mahbooba (Christoph Lemaire), with Abtasaamah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) third, Chocolicious (Herman Brown/ Moore) 4th and Empire Rose (de Kock/ Kevin Shea) 5th. The weights favoured Reem that day and the result may be turned around this time.

Once again the day is likely to be dominated by the Godolphin and de Kock stables. Godolphin can take the classic trial over 7 furlongs at 16.00 with Roayh (bin Suroor/ Dettori) and hold an especially strong hand in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.15, where they have 5 of the 9 runners, including top-weight Buzzword (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Atjebi), who won the German Derby last July. Ex-German Peligroso (Ted Durcan) also runs here, but we prefer Star Empire (de Kock/ Soumillon), who looks the danger to the Godolphin team.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kandar Du Falgas (A) - Paris Gagner (A) - Santhal (A)
2. Race: Roayh - Krypton Factor - Energia Carioca
3. Race: Mahbooba - Chocolicious - Reem
4. Race: Star Empire - La De Two - Telluride
5. Race: Our Giant - Mutheeb - Inxile
6. Race: Colonial - Solid Choice - Tybalt
7. Race: Bold Silvano - Gitano Hernando - Al Shemali
8. Race: Here To Win - Haatheq - Kidnapped

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

German runners at Cagnes-sur-mer today

So far the German runners at Cagnes have not been wildly successful, but this could change today with Marlow (Mario Hofer/ Ioritz Mendizibal) runs off bottom weight in the tierce handicap over 2000 metres at 13.50 CET. He has been in good form and although this is as always a tough race, he must have a solid each-way chance. Otherwise there are several runners owned or trained by Werner Baltromei engaged, and we hope that The Black Lady at 14.50, and Song of Tiger at 16.55, both ridden by Dominique Boeuf, acquit themselves well. The British challenger Officer in Command (Stan Moore/ F-X Bertras) could go well in the claiming race at 16.25, but the one to beat here is surely Castries (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Thierry Thulliez), who is dropping in grade and represents a top stable.

The two British all-weather meetings at Lingfield this afternoon and Kempton this evening are very low-level. Hindu Kush (Robert Mills/Eddie Ahern) is coming off a 6 months break but could win the 1 1/2 mile handicap at Kempton at 19.50; he was in younger days regarded as a group horse by previous trainer Aidan O´Brien. Half an hour later Advertisement (Jeremy Noseda/ George Baker) can complete a hat-trick in the 7 furlongs handicap.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Salmonete - Nova Luz - Nova Holly
2. Race: Churriana - Huangdi - Marlow
3. Race: Smokescape - Colunga - Russian Irina
4. Race: Fastisar - Blue Verglas - Pokito
5. Race: Miss Denmark - Trombine - Tante Dora
6. Race: Cuando Cuanto - Cherma - Lanfranc
7. Race: Alicudi - Castries - Tarpon
8. Race: Sharga - La Fee Mechante - Indian City

Leicester, Newcastle and Down Royal

There is still an inspection to come at Leicester today, and although the hurdles races seem certain to go ahead, there is a possibility that the steeplechases may be cancelled. The novice hurdle here at 15.00 CET looks quite open.Barbatos (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello) and Safran de Cotte (Henry Daly/ Richard Johnson) have both finished a long way behind the smart Bobs Worth and will be more at home in this company, while Global Power (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) fell last time after showing decent form; we narrowly prefer Mic´s Delight (Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan), who won at Exeter last time and whose stable is in good form. The hndocp urdle over 2 1/2 ils t 17.00 is evn trickier. Mannlichen (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) is múch improved and was an easy winner on Sunday, but must concede a lot of weight. Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods) was runner-up in the 2008 German Derby, and possibly the best of all German-breds sold to go N.H. racing, but he has been consistently disppointing and has been off for 10 months. We prefer two runners from lower down in the weights - Snake Charmer (Milton Harris/ David Crosse) and Apache Chant (Tony Carroll/ Lee Edwards), who scored his first ever win under this jockey at Market Rasen last time and gets in here with bottom weight; this race is much tougher, but he could still have a live chance.

At Newcastle, Dark Gentleman (Evelyn Slack/ Ryan Mania) and Mighty Magnus (Mike Todhunter/ James Reveley) meet again in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 14.50. They finished first and second over this CD last time and it should again be a close thing between them. The novice hurdle at 15.20 is another interesting event. Storm Brig (Alastair Whillans/ Brian Harding) looks a good recruit but has to concede 7lbs or more all round. Music of the Moor (Tom Tate/ Reveley),one of 3 4yo´s in the large field, won at Sandown last time, while the Easterby family are strongly represented with Bollin Felix and Shadows Lengthen, but we hope that Storm Brig will be good enough.

There are the usual huge fields at Down Royal. The handicap hurdle at 15.15 looks wide open, but we hope that German-bred Quartetto (Mervyn Torrens/ Mark Darcy), wearing first-time blinkers, can take this. The beginners chase at 16.15 should go to Gates of Rome (Colm Murphy/ Davy Russell), disappointing last time but who had run well enough in top company earlier. Willie Mullins can continue his winnihg run by taking the two divisions of the maiden hurdle with Des Res at 14.15 and Allee Garde half an hour later.

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Taunton, Folkestone and Southwell

Three low-level meetings today, although the novice chase at 15.20 CET at Taunton has runners from many of the top trainers, including Nicholls, Hobbs, King and Venetia Williams. Our selection in Tasheba (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), whose stable continues in tremendous form. He is making his debut over fences here, but was a smart handicapper over hurdles (easily the best of these) and if he jumps round safely, has an obvious chance. Henderson and Geraghty can follow up in the novice hurdle half an hour later with Secret World, third at odds-on over this CD last time, although ex-French Rock of Deauville (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) could be dangerous. Guarino (Gary Moore/ Andrew Glassonbury), who also runs here, has a good German pedigree but got bogged down in the heavy ground last time; today´ s better going should be ideal for the Acatenango gelding.

The handicap hurdle at 16.50 is a very open race with 14 runners and plenty of possibilities. Sir Frank (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) has won 4 of his last 5 starts, but they were all in the summer and he is facing much tougher opposition this time. Henry King /Vic Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan) showed improved form to win over this CD 3 weeks go and must come into the reckoning, as well as King´s Revenge (Sam Lycett/ Jason Maguire), who is frequently placed but has not won for almost 4 years. Our choice is Karky Schultz (James Eustace/ Paddy Brennan), third at Kempton last time; the son of German 1,000 Guineas winner Kazoo ran well on his previous visit here and seems nicely handicapped.

Tony McCoy is riding at Folkestone, where his best chances would appear to be Master Milan at 17.10 and Valley View half an hour later, both making their handicap debuts and trained by Jonjo O´Neill for JP McManus. Gary and Jamie Moore can land a double here with Sire de Grugy at 15.10 and Swift Lord at 15.40, while Jamie can complete a treble at 16.10 on Emma Lavelle´s The Crafty Cuckoo, who has not been out since winning an Irish point-to-point a year ago.

At Southwell, Gold Story (Brian Ellison/ Dean Heslop), runner-up on his last 4 starts, can finally get off the mark in the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.30 and his team can follow up in the claimer over the same trip at 16.00 with Bonnie Prince Blue. Two recent CD winners who can go in again are Sir Louis (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner) - who beat Gold Story easily enough last time- and Double Duchess (Paul d´Arcy/ Liam Jones) over a mile at 17.30.