Thursday, February 24, 2011

UAE Oaks at Meydan

The Dubai Racing Carnival continues today with the Group Three UAE Oaks at 18.35 CET as the main feature. The race looks at the mercy of Mahbooba (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon), a very easy winner of the local 1,000 Guineas last time. 4 of her 6 opponents were well beaten then , so we think that only the two others could cobceivably upset the favourite. Of these we discount Electric Waves (N Alatawi/ Richard Mullen), who had decent form last year over 5 furlongs but is unlikely to get the 9 furlongs of today´s race. This leaves just Khawlah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and she could be a big danger, despite having her first race since the autumn. She was below form then on very soft ground, but today´s conditions will be far more suitable and Frankie is getting down to his lowest weight to ride. Saeed has won this 6 times and sounds confident of a big run.

Saeed and Frankie also haave a good chance of taking the main supporting feature, the listed Meydan Classic for 3yo´s over 9 furlongs on turf (which the stable has won the two previous times it has been run) at 17.55 with Janood, who is fitted with a first-time visor. he was 4th last time in the UAE 2,000 Guineas and the opposition today does not look that strong, although ex-German Manchester (Niels Petersen/PA Graberg) was third last year in the Preis des Winterfavoriten; hard to say what that form is worth in today´s context.

The 5 handicaps look as tricky as ever, but it be no surprise were Mike de Kock and Christophe Soumillon take the first two races with Hunting Tower and Star Empire, both of whom have already shown good form at this meeting. Mick Channon´ s Halicarnassus finished well when runner-up here last week; he is first reserve for the 9 furlongs race at 17.15, but if he gets into the field must have an excellent chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hunting Tower - War Monger - Lolamar
2. Race: Star Empire - Jedi - Prizefighting
3. Race: Orife - Star Crowned - Force Freeze
4. Race: Sweet Lightning - Royal Destination - Glen Nevis
5. Race: Krypton Factor - Crying Lightening - Janood
6. Race: Mahbooba - Electric Waves - Abtasaamah
7. Race: Colonial - Kavango - Mahubo