Saturday, February 19, 2011

Ascot today

A strong Saturday card at Ascot today, with the Grade One Ascot Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.00 CET the main feature. Like many of today´s events, this could be dominated by the powerful stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, who each had a double at Newbury´s big meeting yesterday. Henderson runs Riverside Theatre (Barry Geraghty), last time runner-up to Long Run over 3 miles at Kempton, with Kauto Star third.

That is clearly the best form on offer, although it is not clear that the form should be taken literally and Riverside Theatre is in any case a Kempton specialist, but we still expect him to defeat Nicholls´ Pride of Dulcote (Nick Scholfield), whose narrow win from Punchestowns on a foggy day last time has not been boosted by the runner-up. The distance is probably too far for German-bred Gauvain, so we regard Tartak (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), for whom the trip is ideal, as the main threat to the top two.

In the opening novice hurdle at 14.20 Henderson saddles 3 runners, of whom Problema Tic (Geraghty) seems the strongest, and Nicholls supplies a tough opponent in Sonofvic (Scholfield), but here Tornado Bob (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), may spoil the party while the other novice hurdle at 17.05 should lie between Sprinter Sacre (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Nicholls´ French import Polisky (Scholfield), who receives a stone. The same teams also go head to head in the novice chase at 14.50, where Master of the Hall (Henderson) may just about get the better of The Minack (Nicholls).

The two valuable handicaps on the card look very difficult. The hurdle race at 16.35 has 16 runners, but despite top-weight and advancing years, we still feel that course specialist Lough Derg (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) looks a good each-way bet.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tornado Bob - Problema Tic - Sonofvic
2. Race: The Minack - Master Of The Hall - Teddy`S Reflection
3. Race: Royal Tune - Breedsbreeze - Carrickmines
4. Race: Riverside Theatre - Pride Of Dulcote - Tartak
5. Race: Like Minded - Shalone - Lough Derg
6. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Polisky - L`Eminence Grise
7. Race: Persian Snow - Mono Man - Oscara Dara