Sunday, February 13, 2011

N.H. racing at Exeter, Hereford and Naas (Ireland)

no all-weather racing today (thank heavens!) and racing over jumps at Exeter, Hereford and Navan. As is usual on a Sunday, the best sport comes from Ireland and the Navan card includes three Grade Two races. 9 are engaged in the Flyingbolt novice chase at 15.20 CET, but 3 of them ran yesterday in the Grade One at Leopardstown; if we assume, as seems 99% certain, that they will not run, then the race should lie between Saludos (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Torphichen (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara). Saludos has run badly at other tracks but is 2 from 2 here, and with the stable in great form, is our confident selection. The Boyne Hurdle at 15.50 should go to Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Andrew Lynch); she has won 8 of her 15 starts, but has always been wanting behind the likes of Hurricane Fly and Solwhit. There is nothing of that calibre in this field and she should score from Shinrock Paddy. Murphy can follow up with Quito de la Roque /Davy Russell) in the 3 mil e novice chase, but Royal de la Thinte (Jim Dreaper/ Lynch), who fell last time after making most of the running, is now 5 lbs better off and could be dangerous.
Main feature at Exeter is the listed novice hurdle at 15.40. Spirit Son (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is the clear favourite here; he had good form in France and won in good style on his British debut. Another e-French horse Cedre Bleu (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Thomas) could be the main threat, but we are also interested in the running of Lady Willa (Mark Gillard/ Andrew Thornton). This modest performer has shown suddenly improved form to win her last two races; this is far tougher but she gets lots of weight and could run a good race at a big price. Nicholls should in any case score with Definity (Nick Scholfield) in the graduation chase at 16.10, while we expect Mamlook (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) can concede weight all round in the novice chase at 17.40.
Best event at Hereford could be the maiden hurdle at 16.00. Our Mick (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) form choice here, having been placed in his last 3 races after winning his bumper. Don´t Turn Bach (Nicholls/ Harry Skelton) was a decent bumper horse in Ireland, but he jumped badly on his two British starts over sticks; if he gets this problem sorted, he could be a big danger, while Milo Milan Richard Lee/ Charlie Post), from a small stable in great form, has an obvious each-way chance, and debutant Storm Survivor is probably the main reason for Tony McCoy´s presence here today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lios A Choill - Jetson - Bog Warrior
2. Race: Mikael D`Haguenet - Quel Esprit - Saludos
3. Race: Voler La Vedette - Shinrock Paddy - Rigour Back Bob
4. Race: Lean Times - Dantes King - Avoca King
5. Race: Quito De La Roque - Royal De La Thinte - The Hurl
6. Race: Take A Stroll - Guestofthenation - Shamiran
7. Race: Lord Gale - Garryncurra - Lady Olwyn