Listed and graded races today

Plenty of racing today, with listed races on the flat at Newmarket this afternoon and this evening on the all-weather at Dundalk - both fillies races - while there are graded races over jumps at Wetherby and Down Royal, both gearing up for their top cards of the year tomorrow.

The Newmarket race at 15.00 CET is actually pretty feeble, and if Terror (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley) can repeat the form she showed when 4th here in the Cheveley Park, then she should win this easily. More interesting each-way bets at long odds here could be Perfect Summer (Lady Cecil/ Cam Hardie) at 16.10, owned by our Hoppegarten friend GS, and Our Folly (Stuart Kittow/ Pat Cosgrave) at 16.45.

The Dundalk race at 20.10 is much more competitive and has a full field of 14 runners, with all the top Irish stables represented. Mike Halford holds a strong hand here with Slipper Orchid (CP Hogan) and Sea Coast (Shane Foley) and we have a slight preference for the former in a very open event.

The best race over jumps in the U.K. is the listed handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles at Wetherby at 15.15. Silver rqoque (Fergus O´Brien/ Conor Shoemark) is favourite here, but we prefer Trustan Times (Tim Easterby/ Wilson Renwick) and especially Cedre Bleu (Dougie Costello), who was previously with Paul Nicholls but now reappears after a break for Charlie Mann. The 3yo hurdle race at 15.50 is also a listed event, but this is a poor field and Brian Ellison´s two runners Come On Sunshine (Renwick) and Full Day (Danny Cook) can take the first two places.
The Grade 2 hurdle race at 15.05 at Down Royal is arguably the race of the day and here we expect Arctic Fire (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) to come out on top.

listed races at Lingfield

the best meeting today is the all-weather fixture at Lingfield, featuring two listed races for fillies. The first, at 15.50 CET, is over a mile and frankly looks a bit substandard. The well-bred Water Hole (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) won over this CD last December and although she was well beaten on her recent starts, she is still the highest-rated here. The dangers could be Fruit Pastille (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Fortune), who has won her last 3 races, and the two Godolphin runners Tearless (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby) and Wahgah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Paul Hanagan). There are also two Godolphin fillies in the 1 mile 5 furlongs race half an hour later; Speckled (Appleby/ Kirby) won this last year (with Ed Walker´s Livia´s Dream runner-up ), but has only run once since. so Saeed´s runner Hidden Gold (Freddie Tylicki) can be preferred. She is up in grade here but has a fantastic pedigree (Urban Sea is the second dam!) and looks an improver. The 7 furlongs handicap which follows is also a tough race, but if Intransigent (Andrew Balding/ Thomas Brown) can reproduce his winning form at Ascot on this different surface, he must have a solid chance under top-weight for a stable that is still banging in the winners.
The most interesting race at the 3 jumps meetings today is the Durham National over 3 miles 6 furlongs at 16.00. This comes very early in the season, having previously been run in the spring. Our fancy here is Royale Knight (Dr. Newland/ Daryl Jacob), one of the few who can be guaranteed to stay the trip. He had a recent warm-up over hiurdles and looks ripe for this. Our other fancy here is CD specialist Sendiym at 15.00; 4 of his 5 career victories have been at this track, including two recently and although he is now meeting better opposition, we think that he can score again.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fine View - Regal Ways - Colorada
2. Race: Alfajer - Krafty One - Faery Song
3. Race: Hills And Dales - Swot - Horseshoe Bay
4. Race: Rome - Silver Dixie - Starfield
5. Race: Water Hole - Wahgah - Tearless
6. Race: Tamasha - Speckled - Cascading
7. Race: Prince`s Trust - Athletic - Ifwecan
8. Race: Chevise - Bookmaker - Bertie Blu Boy

5 poor meetings today

plenty of runners today but mainly of very poor quality. There is flat racing this afternoon at Nottingham and in the evening at Kempton, while they go over jumps at Taunton and Worcester and also Punchestown in Ireland.
It is interesting that the two divisions of the 5 furlongs sprint handicap that open the card at Nottingham, both feature previous winners of the race -Steel Rain (Mrs Evans/ Matthew Cosham) at 14.30 CET and Lupo d´Oro (Jim Best/ Steve Drowne) half an hour later. Both are now on a long losing run, but are extremely well handicapped as a result and it is possible that a return to the scene of old victories may enable them to recover past ability. The 2yo maiden here at 16.00 has some potentially useful performers engaged, including the well-bred Storm the Stars (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning), beaten in a photo-finish in a hot maiden at Newmarket and that form could be good enough here. Andrew Balding continues in tremendous form and can take the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 17.00 with the lightly-raced Nabatean (David Probert). who has twice run well in better company and looks a very promising young stayer.
Balding occasionally has runners over hurdles and could be on the mark at Taunton with German-bred Dandy (Tom O´Brien) at 15.40; he will need to be quite useful to win on his debut against two previous winnmers. but he won 5 races on the flat. Another German-bred who can score over jumps is Lysino (Dr. Newland/ Noel Fehily); he has a 7 lbs penalty for winning last week., but jumped so well that he can probably win again.

Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: Haajes - Boxing Shadows - Ambitious Icarus
2. Race: Fredricka - Indian Tinker - Rylee Mooch
3. Race: Arthur`s Way - Speedfit Rules - Chilworth Bells
4. Race: Storm The Stars - Golden Horn - Champagne Bob
5. Race: Dubai Star - Lightning Spear - Bahamian C
6. Race: Nabatean - Civil War - Dara Tango
7. Race: Time Square - Monopoli - Nellies Quest

Usual Tuesday fare

Tuesday is normally the weakest day of the week, and so it is again today, with two low-level flat meetings this afternoon and one on the all-weather this evening, as well as a poor N.H. card at Ffos Las. The best betting opportunities are in our opinion at Catterick and the second division of the 2 mile handicap at 16.50 should lie between Waltz Darling (Keith Revelely/ Emma Sayer) and Jolie Blonde (Sir Mark Prescott), who both won over this CD 3 weeks ago. Come On Sunshine (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift), who has won twice over hurdles since his last flat race, and veteran Irish raider Whatuthink (Oliver McKiernan/ Ben Curtis), a Grade Two winner over hurdles in younger days, also come into calculations, but Sir Mark does so well with these improving 3yo´s that we expect Jolie Blonde, despite a huge hike in the weights, to score again. However she does here, we fancy Emma Sayer to take the first division half an hour earlier on her mother´s German-bred Cool Baranca, also a winner here last time out, while another German-bred with an interesting each-way chance is Fieldgunner Kirkup (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons) over his best distance of 7 furlongs at 15.50.

With the Andrew Balding stable in such good form, Geordan Murphy (David Probert) can take the mile handicap at Windsor at 15.00, where Chess Valley (Willie Musson/ Cam Hardie) could be the main danger; should the latter run well, that would be an obvious pointer to So Noble (Willie Muir/ Steve Drowne) half an hour later.

5 meetings today

plenty of action today, but mainly at a low level. We have flat racing at Leicester and Redcar, with jumps racing in Scotland at Ayr and in Ireland at Galway and Wexford. There is a listed chase at 16.15 CET at the former track, but the most interesting runner goes for the beginners chase at 15.05 at Galway. This is Very Wood (Noel Meade/ Bryan Cooper), who is making his chasing debut; he was a top novice hurdler last season, winning at the Cheltenham Festival, and if he can jump fences as well as he can sticks he should certainly win this. His trainer also has a chance in Wexford´s main event with Thomond (Paul Carberry), a very easy winner at Listowel, but we have a slight preference for the only mare in the field Pollywollydoodle (Eoin Griffin/ Andrew Lynch), also a last-time-out winner. who gets quite a bit of weight from the other 3 runners. There is also a tiny field for the novice hurdle at 15.15, which looks at the mercy of Draco (Aidan O´Brien/ Robbie Power).
The best race at Ayr is the handicap chase at 16.50, in which all 8 runners can be given a Chance. Our choice is Rowdy Rocher (Lucinda Russell/ Graham Watters); when he won at Perth in August this was only his second start in 3 years, so he has obviously had his problems, but he remains with potential.
Easily the best race on the flat today is the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.30 at Leicester. Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ George Baker) was a group horse earlier, but is now coming off a break after running badly in the spring. Blue Rambler (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) has had an even longer break, but was unbeaten in 4 races when trained in France by André Fabre. The lightly-raced filly Rewaaya (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) had won 2 of her 4 starts, including this CD and could be smart, but the handicapper has taken no chances. With question marks over these, we will go for the consistent Fattsota (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has solid form at this level and whose stable remains in good form.


Betting forecast Galway:
1. Race: Mumbo Bay - Kolaphos - Egyptian Warrior
2. Race: Captain Canada - The Parishioner - Shesaportrait
3. Race: Black Benny - Protaras - Down Under
4. Race: Little Miss Vic - Silver Sally - Cloudy Rock
5. Race: Daigreen - Pleased As Punch - Roadtotheisland
6. Race: Cassells Rock - Raajih - Battling Boru
7. Race: Russian Bill - Tycoon Prince - Theatre Flame

Dermot Weld the man to follow today

Our favourite trainer Dermot Weld is the man to follow today; he runs Pale Mimosa in the Group One at Longchamp, but it is interesting that he keeps his stable jockey Pat Smullen at home, and the team could well win several races at Leopardstown. Main event here is the November Handicap over 1 miles 7 furlongs at 16.25 CET, where Weld has 2 runners, including recent irish Cesarewitch runner-up Hidden Universe, Smullen´s (and our) choice. With 23 runners this is of course wide open, and last year´s winner Sir Ector (James Lambe/ Ronan Whelan), smart hurdler Orgiglo Bay (JC McConnell/ Gary Connell) are obvious dangers as well as the two British raiders. We would also mention Eye of the Tiger (Johnny Murtagh/ Ben Curtis); "never forget a horse´s best form" they say, and that was when he won the Gerling-Preis (!!) in 2010. Other Weld/ Smullen runners with a chance are debutant Zawraq in the 2yo maiden at 14.10 (up against a 3.6 million guineas yearling of Aidan´s!), plus Afternoon Sunlight and Zafilani in the listed races at15.15 and 15.50. Weld can also score at the Irish N.H. meeting at Galway, where his runner Windsor Park (Robbie McNamara) looks almost unbeatable in the bumper at 17.15. Ruby Walsh is being very selective with his rides at present, and he can win on both his mounts here, Un Beau Romain at 14.55 and Celtic Abbey at 16.05.

Both the U.K. meetings today are over jumps and consist mainly of tricky handicaps. The going is still on the firm side at Wincanton which has led to several non-runners. One who will like the conditions (despite his pedigree) is German-bred Lyssio (Jim Best/ Rhys Flint) at 17.40. He was 8th in the 2010 German Derby, and 5th in the same race was Lamool (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne), who runs in the handicap chase at 16.50 at Aintree.

Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster

Typical Saturday overkill today, with the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, more group races at Newbury and Leopardstown, as well as the best jumps racing of the season so far at Chepstow and Aintree. The Group One Racing Post Trophy for 2yo´s over a mile at 16.50 CET is clearly the top race of the day and this race has an excellent record as a guide to the following season´s Derby and St. Leger (Kingston Hill won last year). At first glance the race looks slightly sub-standard and we don´t see any Camelot in there, but his trainer Aidan O´Brien has won this race 7 times (with 4 subsequent Derby winners) and now saddles two runners- Aloft (William Buick) and Jacobean (Colm O´Donoghue), both of them moving up sharply in grade. The choice of jockeys looks a bit unusual, but that is because Joseph is suspended while Ryan Moore is in Australia- and won the Cox Plate for the stable earlier today. Of the two we prefer Jacobean, who made a satisfactory debut when 2nd of 22 to a stable companion (Royal Navy Ship, who runs 40 minutes earlier in a Group Three at Leopardstown) and looks likely to make dramatic improvement now - he will need to in order to beat Elm Park (Andrew Balding/ Andrea Atzeni), who looks very smart and has won his last 3 races, including the Royal Lodge. Celestial Path (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) is unbeaten in two starts and also moving up in grade, as are Restorer (William Muir/ Martin Dywer) and Snoano (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan), Elm Park is the proven performer here, but Jacobean is probably the runner with the most potential and in view of the stable´s outstanding record here, we shall side with him.

The rest of the Doncaster card looks very tricky, but we hope that Richard Fahey can take the two top handicaps with Emeradhiz (Jack Garrity) at 15.40 and Ballesteros (Hanagan) at 16.15.

At Newbury we think that Penglai Pavilion (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby) could be an interesting each-way bet in the St. Simon Stakes at 15.20. he was trained by Andre Fabre last season and finished 5th in the Arc, but has has been well beaten on all his starts for Appleby; however that trainer is now in top form and, more importantly, Penglai Pavilion now runs on soft for the first time this season. As a son of Monsun, this is probably what he needs to return to his best and his Arc fifth (on very soft) is clearly the best form in the race.

Over jumps, we would rather see the form settle down a bit before getting heavily involved, but it is possible that last year´s winners can follow up in the feature races at Chepstow (Shammick Boy at 17.10) and Aintree (Conquisto at 16.00). Neither has won since those wins, but are now very well handicapped as a result.

back to the flat

it´s back to flat racing today with decent cards at Newbury and Doncaster. In both cases the first 4 races are for 2yo´s and there could well be some smart future performers running, but there is very litle form to go on and for betting purposes they should be watched, but not punted on. The handicaps that follow are more interesting and we especially like Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) in the 6 furlongs race at Doncaster at 16.30 CET. He has not won since taking Munich´s Silberne Peitsche 17 months ago, but the form of that race was strong in the context of today´s race and he is now very nicely handicapped. The following 1 3/4 mile handicap at 17.05 also has a large field and looks wide open. Zipp (Ralph Beckett/ Sean Levey) was the favourite for this last year, but was just touched off; he comes on the short list again, but Godolphin´s Moontime (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) and also Norway Cross /(Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) are also dangerous, although both are up in trip. Proven at the distance is Spectator (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who is a full brother to tomorrow´s Cox Plate runner Side Glance and perhaps he can kick off a great weekend for connections.
With Charlie Appleby now in top form, we also like Dream Child (Silvestre de Sousa) in the 16.55 at Newbury; top-weight Dame Lucy (Mick Appleby - no relation/ Oisin Murphy) is one of several dangers. German-bred Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Ron Hornby) might run into a place in the apprentice race at 18.30; the Monsun gelding has been a huge disappointment, but is coming off a break and this is a very weak race.
There is a listed race over 5 furlongs at 21.10 at the Irish all-weather meeting at Dundalk. Sir Maximilian (Ian Williams/ Steve Donohoe) has some good form at this distance and was not beaten far when 7th of 18 in the Abbaye last time. If he can repeat that form, he must go close here.

Betting forecast Dundalk:
1. Race: Adeste Fideles - Sirikoi - Taaluf
2. Race: The Dancing Lord - Merry Mast - Happy Anniversary
3. Race: Art Scene - Bold Henmie - Hazel Blue
4. Race: Bubbly Bellini - Strait Of Zanzibar - Trinity Force
5. Race: No Way Jack - Miss Temple - Enter The Priory
6. Race: Sir Maximilian - Russian Soul - Abstraction
7. Race: Tigris River - Whitey O` Gwaun - Captain Teemo
8. Race: Fanzine - Comedy Club - Elusive Laurence

all jumping today

there is some modest flat racing this evening at Kempton., but all 4 meetings this afternoon are over jumps. The best race is probably the hurdle race over 2 3/4 miles at 17.25 at the Irish meeting at Thurles; He´llberemembered (Paul Fahey/ Shane Butler) won this last year and has good chances of repeating that victofy, with only Moonshine Lad (Gordon Ellioptt/ Paul Carberry) looking at all threatening. The Elliott stable is in great form, but in theory his runner cannot beat the old boy at these weights. Half an hour later Ultra Light (Robbie Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) can defy a 4 lbs penalty for winning last Friday by taking the handicap hurdle over the same trip under top weight; he is still very nicely handicapped on his chase form.

Another good chaser going hurdling today is Buywise (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) at 16.45 at Ludlow; he ran two poor races over sticks last autumn, but has won 4 races over fences this year and if he can repeat that trick over the smaller obstacles can beat the classy flat horse Area Fifty One (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler). Another likely winner here is Java Rose (Charlie Longsdon/ Aidan Coleman) in the novice hurdle at 15.40; he has a 7 lbs penalty for an easy win at Warwick 3 weeks ago, but the opposition looks weak.
There is no such thing as a certainty in a handicap, but What a Good Night (Dan and Harry Skelton) comes close in the 15.00 race at Southwell; he was a very easy winner last week at Uttoxeter and can follow up under a penalty for his red-hot trainer.

Those who believe in horses-for-courses will be backing the Hamiltons´ Granaruid in the handicap hurdle at 16.25 at Carlisle; he is 3/3 here. Half an hour later, Lively Baron (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) can defy top weight in the staying handicap chase; he is only 5 lbs higher than winning over this CD in May.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Honey Required - Jet Mate - Skylight
2. Race: Lady Sylvia - Semaral - White Russian
3. Race: Hawkin - Wiener Valkyrie - Its Lady Mary
4. Race: Jellicle Ball - Spirited Acclaim - Forres
5. Race: Lightning Charlie - Marasim - British Art
6. Race: Galactic Halo - Ridgeway Storm - Chatham House Rule
7. Race: Fair Share - Daaree - King Calypso
8. Race: Bob - Fiftyshadesofgrey - Ganymede

5 poor meetings today

This is the time of year when the big stables bring out their hopes for next season´s big 3yo races, and the form of these races can often be misleading. At Newmarket today the first 7 races are all for 2yo´s and the maiden races - with runners from some top addresses- have large fields, but without knowing which horses are really top fit, these are not good betting events. The two better races have very small fields and are therefore equally unattractive. From the betting point of view, the last race, a fillies handicap over a mile at 18.25 CET, is the most interesting event and here we expect the top-weights to dominate, with the lightly-raced Tempress (Roger Charlton/ George Baker) our selection; she has not run for 3 months, but looked very progressive then and the stable is in good form. There is also flat racing in Ireland, with maximum fields on most of the 8 races at Navan, and the same arguments apply.

Over jumps, two German-breds catch the eye - Lysino (Dr. Newland/ Noel Fehily) in the handicap chase at 15.50 at Worcester and Ordensritter (Chris Down/ Giles Hawkins) in the handicap hurdle at 17.45 at Fontwell. The former, a half-brother to German Derby winner Lucky Speed, is very consistent but keeps on going up in the weights for finishing second, so is no good thing today, although we certainly expect him to run well on a course that should suit. Ordensritter is more interesting; he has not been placed in 5 runs over hurdles in the U.K., and is in fact running for the first time over jumps for 19 months, but he has run some decent races on the flat in the meantime and is now well handicapped, so he could well spring a surprise at a nice price. He also has a good pedigree, being a half-brother by Samum to German Derby third Open Your Heart.

autumn in the air

autumn is very much in the air today with high winds and heavy showers and the cards also look very autumnal, with 3 meetings on the all-weather and one over jumps. Exeter´s N.H. card is the most interesting of the day, with most of the leading trainers from that part of the country involved, and Paul Nicholls in particular is sending a strong team. He has fancied runners in the first 3 races, with Howlongisafoot, partnered by daughter Megan, at 15.10 CET, and Alcala at 15.40 and Far West half an hour later both ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies. All 3 have chances, but the stable has not really hit top form yet and we would not want to be taking a short price about any of them, as there is plenty of opposition. Looking for a bit of each-way value, we like Tullamore Dew (Nick Gifford/ Tom Cannon) in the handicap chase at 16.40 and Look for Love (Sue and Lucy Gardner) in the handicap hurdle half an hour later. Neither has won for a while, but they are now both well handicapped as a result; Tullamore Dew was runner-up over this CD last January to the subsequent Grand National winner and a repeat of that form certainly gives him a chance, with the Gardners are always to be feared at their local course.
The new tapeta track at Wolverhampton has been well received and the fields today are quite big, although it is certainly more quantity than quality. Ex-German All The Winds (Sam Lycett/ Ciaran McKee) is no star, but this is his level and as he has often run well here we give him an an each-way chance in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.50.
Potentially the best horse running today is the Godolphin filly Yodelling (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), who runs in the conditions race for 2yo´s at 20.00 at Kempton; she won so easily on her debut here that it is hard to see her getting beaten this evening, but she will not be at a working man´s price.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Nephew - The Tourard Man - Fred Le Macon
2. Race: Alcala - Hello George - The Geegeez Geegee
3. Race: Far West - Puffin Billy - Dunraven Storm
4. Race: Houston Dynimo - Strumble Head - Perfect Candidate
5. Race: Bajan Blu - Go West Young Man - Worthy Award
6. Race: Jewellery - Midnight Lira - Moorlands Jack
7. Race: Kalifourchon - Miss Minx - Restraint

3 poor meetings today

back to the normal Monday fare of two low-level flat meetings as well as one over jumps The best racing comes from Pontefract, where there is a listed race for 2yo´s over a mile at 16.40 CET. Most of these are moving up in grade, and the unbeaten My Reward (Charlie Hills/ George Baker), as well as Power Play (Richard Hannon/ Sean Levey) and Natural Charm (Roger Varian/ Graham Lee), who have each won their last two races, are passed over in favour of Prince Gagarin (Ed Dunlop/ Adam Kirby), whose second place in a Newmarket nursery handicap is probably the best form on offer here. Another one we like here is Madam Lilibet (Mrs. S Watt/ Joey Haynes) in the staying handicap over 2 1/4 miles at 17.40; the more rain the better for this mudder, who won the same race last year off a higher rating, and whose recent form on fast ground can possibly be ignored. The 5 furlongs handicap at 16.10 is the best betting race of the day, and we shall take a chance on Singeur (Robin Bastiman/ Dale Swift), who has not won for ages but is well handicapped on his old form.
The card at Windsor is very feeble, but it will be interesting to see if the owner walks down from her castle up on the hill to watch the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.20, in which her Micras (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy) is our tentative suggestion.
They go over jumps at Plumpton, where ex-German Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan), coming off a three months break, must have a chance in the novices handicap chase 17.00, this half-brother to Samum and co has not run up to his top pedigree, but must be capable to winning a race at this level.

Betting forecast Pontefract:
1. Race: Youonlyliveonce - Cymro - Secret Lightning
2. Race: Regal Missile - Glorious Dancer - Big Red
3. Race: Perfect Muse - Mutafaakir - Singeur
4. Race: Power Play - My Reward - Prince Gagarin
5. Race: Instant Karma - The New Pharaoh - Harmonical
6. Race: Hell Hath No Fury - Embsay Crag - Beat The Shower
7. Race: Bureau - Ardmay - Dubawi Fun
8. Race: Endless Credit - Moccasin - Harmonic Lady

listed races today

obviously we cannot expect group races today after all the action at Newmarket and Ascot, but we do have two listed races this afternoon over jumps at Kempton, one on the flat in Ireland and also a graded handicap chase at Cork.
Highlight of the day is the 2 miles hurdle race at 17.25 CET at Kempton which sees the return of The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), last seen winning the Aintree Hurdle at the Grand National meeting. He won this race last year before finishing an unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle and he is currently favourite for the race next March. He has only one serious rival today, Forgotten Voice (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who has not run over hurdles for 18 months but was a Grade Two winner over hurdles over this CD in early 2013; he has raced exclusively on the flat this year, mainly in group races, and in receipt of 8 lbs, could be a real threat to the favourite. Geraghty can also win the other listed race over hurdles with John Ferguson´s Parlour Games, also useful on the flat, at 16.20.
The listed race on the flat is at the Irish mixed meeting at Naas, and is over a mile for fillies and mares at 16.15. We saw at Ascot yesterday that the Dermot Weld stable is in top form and they can take this witjh i´m Yours (Pat Smullen); she has not run since April but with this trainer, that is never a problem.
The most valuable jumps race of the day is the 2 mile handicap hurdle at Cork at 16.25, which looks wide open. The Amarillo Kid (WF Codd/ Mark Darcy) and Fosters Cross (Tom Mullins/ Davy Russell), finished 1/2 in this last year and both have obvious chances again, as do the two bottom-weights Beckwith Star (Harry de Bromhead/ Jonathan Burke) and Gentleman Duke (Arthur Moore/ David Casey), who both have good form over hurdles to their credit.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Princess Ombu - Gladstone - Maid Of Tuscany
2. Race: Morning Reggie - Dont Take Me Alive - Owen Na View
3. Race: Zulu Oscar - Blue Heron - Countersign
4. Race: Prince Des Marais - Fix It Right - Caballo De Marcus
5. Race: Kilcooley - Starluck - Hint Of Mint
6. Race: Violets Boy - Ulis De Vassy - Chestnut Ben
7. Race: Set List - Tea For Two - Onderun

Champion Stakes

the QIPCO Champion Stakes at 17.05 CET is the big race of the day and has been the highest-rated race in the world for the past two seasons. Star of the show is the French-trained 8yo gelding Cirrus des Aigles (Corinne Barbe-Balande/ Christophe Soumillon), who won here in 2011 and has been runner-up in the two years since - in 2012 to the great Frankel. He was controversially disqualified after winning the Dollar (for the third time) a fortnight ago, but he loves soft ground - the heavier the better- and will be hard to beat here. At the time of writing it is unclear whether Free Eagle (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) will take him on, but if he does he will be a serious danger. Weld is worried about the very soft ground, but this very lightly-raced 3yo is potentially a world-beater. Noble Mission (Jane Cecil/ James Doyle), Frankel´s brother, will like the ground and is next best bjut we cannot imagine that his Munich form (second to Lucky Lion) would be good enough here. Ruler of the World (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien)- last year´s Derby winner- and Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ George Baker) have both run unplaced in the last two Arcs, but Western Hymn (John Gosden/ William Buick) seems more likely to be involved in today´s finish than they are. We hope Free Eagle runs and if he does so, he will give Cirrus des Aigles a real fight, but otherwise the French horse should win this easily enough.

Champions Day at Ascot

we had excellent racing at Newmarket yesterday but today´s Ascot card is even better. Whether it can compete with Longchamp´s Arc day or the Breeders Cup is open to debate, but this is still one of the best cards anywhere in the world this year. Of course the fact that some stars are missing - Kingman, Australia, Kingston Hill et al - means that the cast is not quite as sparkling as had been hoped, and although the heavy ground is an extra negative factor, but this should not detract from a wonderful day´s racing.
We shall start in chronological order with the Long Distance Cup over 2 miles at 14.45 CET, where the field includes the last two winners of the Gold Cup, Leading Light (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and the Queen´s Estimate, but in both cases we are worried about the ground. Dermot Weld is always the man to follow in such events and in 2012 he saddled Rite of Passage to win after a break of 17 months;now he runs Forgotten Rules (Pat Smullen), who won a bumper in April and then a minor conditions race at Galway - his only two races so far. In theory of course that form cannot be good enough, but Weld rates this one highly and we think he can pull it off. Biographer (David Lanigan/ George Baker), who loves this ground, is our outsider tip for each-way bettors.
Next is the Champion Sprint over 6 furlongs at 15.20. Most of these have met before woith varying results, so we shall stick to the mudlovers and in particular the three Irish hopes Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Wayne Lordan), Maarek (Evanna McCutcheon/ Jamie Spencer) and Viztoria (Eddie Lynam/ Smullen).Maarek won this in 2012 and could be a decent price today, with last year´s runner-up Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) is another for the short list.
The Fillies and Mares race over 1 1/2 miles comes next at 15.55 and 2013 winner Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ Baker) tries again, but she is held on her latest running by Silk Sari (Liuca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni). The field also includes two fillies that were placed in the Prix de l´Opera - Tasaday (Saeed bin Suroor/ Richard Hughes), 2nd last year, and Hadaatha (Roger Varian / Paul Hanagan) a close third this year. However we aso like Cubanita (Ralph Beckett/ Ryan Moore), one of the few who is certain to like the heavy ground and to stay the trip.
The field for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile at 16.30 includes three 3yo´s who all ran in the 2,000 Guineas - the 40-1 winner Night of Thunder (Richard Hannon/ Hughes), Charm Spirit (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier), who finished fifth and has since reversed the form with the winner, and Toormore (Hannon/ Kieren Fallon), who was actually the stable´s main hope but finished 7th. Top Notch Tonto (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) and Kingsbarns (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) finished 2/3 last year and should be in the shake-up again on going that they clearly need. Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) has won his last 5 races and is still improving, while the consistent Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) is proven at this level and a danger to all.
Our preview of the Champion Stakes at 17.05 follows in a few minutes, while the final race is a 27-runner mile handicap worth 155,000 GBP to the winner, a real puzzle. Taking the ground and the draw into account (we think high numbers will be favoured, but it is not certain!) we shall take three against the field -Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Robert Winston), Gabrial´s Kaka (Richard Fahey/ Spencer) and Russian Realm (Stoute/ Moore) but basically anything is possible here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Leading Light - Forgotten Rules - Estimate
2. Race: G Force - Gordon Lord Byron - Jack Dexter
3. Race: Silk Sari - Hadaatha - Chicquita
4. Race: Charm Spirit - Night Of Thunder - Integral
5. Race: Cirrus des Aigles - Free Eagle - Noble Mission
6. Race: Chatez - Cornrow - Levitate

Future Champions Day at Newmarket

some excellent racing today and pride of place goes clearly to Newmarket and their so_called Future Champions Day, with 6 Group races, 3 of them Group One - and all the Group Ones as well as a Group Three are reserved for 2yo´s. Whether this is a good idea remains to be seen, but it is the result of the rearrangement of the autumn programme with the British Champions Day tomorrow at Ascot.
The Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.00 CET is traditionally the best U.K. race for juveniles and has been dominated in recent years by Irish runners, who have taken 7 of ther last 8 runnings. Jim Bolger has no runner today but Aidan O´Brien saddles the highly interesting dark horse Smugglers Cove (Joseph), moving up sharply in grade after winning a listed at Dundalk last week. On ratings he has little chance, but he could certainly win here, as O´Brien has enough smart 2yo´s in the yard to know where they all stand. The one he has to beat is certainly Estidhkaar (Richard Hannon(/ Paul hanagan), who has won his last 3 starts - two of them in Group Twos - in excellent style.
The Filles Mile at 16.25 -previoiusly run at Ascot- is another top race with Hannon and O´Brien again in Opposition, biut we think it could be between two other Irish runners, Agnes Stewart (Eddie Lynam/ Billy Lee), who won the May Hill at Doncaster, the logical trial for this, and Lucida (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), one of 3 runners in Godolphin colours.
Hannon has another good chance in the Middle Park over 6 furlongs at 15.55, where the unbeaten Ivawood (Richard Hughes) is clearly preferred to Kool Kompany (Ryan Moore). Ivawood is obviously one of the best 2yo´s in Europe, but has never run on soft ground before, so we would be cutious about taking prices at odds-on. The O´Brien´s run The Warrior here, but it requires quite a feat of Imagination to see him winning this, but the other Irish runner Cappella Sansevero (Ger Lyons/ Andrea Atzeni) has won 4 races already and was runner-up in the Coventry; he has solid form and is a definite alternative to the favourite.
The other 2yo group race is the Cornwallis Stakes over 5 furlongs at 15.25, which is much lower in standard but still looks tricky. Moonraker (Mick Channon/ Hughes) and Strath Burn (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) both flopped last time but still have the best form here and one of them will probably win.
From the German point of view the Group Two Challenge Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.35 could be the most interesting race of the day. There are two German-trained runners Amarillo (Peter and Dennis Schiergen) and Mogadishio (Sascha Smcrzek/ Freddie Tylicki), of whom the former - runner up here last year- has much the better chance. Here Comes When (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley) won in good style at Baden-Baden, while Cape Factor (Rae Guest/ Chris Catlin) was runner-up in a listed race there. French challenger Thawaaany (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) runs in the owner´s second colours, but must also have a good chance judging by his second place at Deauville, but the one to beat is probably super-consistent Breton Rock (David Simcock( Martin Lane), who loves this ground and never runs a bad race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Majestic Manner - Pulcinella - Mystic Jade
2. Race: Strath Burn - Squats - Moonraker
3. Race: Muhaarar - Cappella Sansevero - Kool Kompany
4. Race: Lucida - Marsh Hawk - Agnes Stewart
5. Race: Smuggler`s Cove - Maftool - Kodi Bear
6. Race: Thawaany - Breton Rock - Al Thakhira
7. Race: Grandeur - Mutakayyef - Fencing

Graded races in Ireland today

Two very poor flat meetings today - at Brighton this afternoon (best avoided when the ground is heavy, as at present) and on the all-weather this evening at Wolverhampton, but the jumps racing is more interesting, in particular the Irtsh card at Punchestown with two graded races. Both have small fields but there are some smart performers in action, and Aleichi Inois (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh), who runs in the novice chase at 16.45 CET and certainly looks a potential star. He was quite decent over hurdles but has found his true metier chasing and is now unbeaten after four starts. He has to concede quite a lot of weight to his 4 opponents today, but it will still be a shock if he is beaten.

There are only 4 runners in the 2 mile 7 furlongs chase half an hour later, two of them trained by Gordon Elliott, who has won this for the past 3 years, twice with Roi du Mee (Paul Carberry) who now tries again and has stable companion Don Cossack (Bryan Cooper) to beat. Both are coming off a break, so Alderwood (Tony Mullins/ Paul Townend) could be a big threat with a fitness and weight advantage. Another one to note here is Little King Robin (Colin Bowe/ Mark Walsh), who runs - despite ther male sounding name - in the listed mares hurdle at 15.45; she was runner-up here last year, but is much improved in 2014 and has already won five times and can make it number six for the year today.

In the U.K. we shall give yet another chance to the frustrating Schlenderhan-bred Milord (Kim Bailey/ David Bass) in the maiden hurdle at 17.50 at Wincanton; the Monsun gelding continually disappoints, but is up in trip here which might help. Best bet at Uttoxeter is Straits of Messina (Tom Symonds/ Felix de Giles) in the handicap hurdle at 17.00; he was runner-up to another ex-Schlenderhan runner Agapanthus over this CD 11 days ago, and a repetition of that form should be good enough today.

Short holiday

This column is now taking a short holiday and hopes to be back on Thursday October 16th.

One race to look forward to is Saturday´s Cesarewitch at 16.50 CET at Newmarket. This 2 1/4 mile handicap is always one of the fiercest betting races of the year and is often won by a horse with a hurdling background. The ante-post favourite Quick Jack (Tony Martin/ Richard Hughes) comes into that category, but our fancy is German-bred Big Easy (Philip Hobbs/ Tom Queally), who is out of a Monsun mare and was only beaten a neck in the trial race over this CD. He runs off the same rating tomorrow, while the Irish raider has been raised 9 lbs for winning at Galway at the end of July, his only flat race this year.

Cheltenham runners at Newton Abbot

the intermediate chase over 2 3/4 miles at 16.55 CET at Newton Abbot is the most interesting race today, with all 5 runners having been out at the Cheltenham Festival. Taquin Du Seuil (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon) did best there, winning the big novice chase with Double Ross (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Jamie Moore) third and Wonderful Charm (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) fifth. Nicholls´´second runner Black Thunder (Nick Scholfield) fell in the other novice chase, while Colour Squadron (Philip Hobbs/ Tony McCoy) was third in the Byrne Group Plate. It is not at the time of writing clear whether AP will be able to ride after his fall yesterday, but Colour Squadron- despite the fact that he has not won for almost 3 years- is in any case our selection, as he receives a masssive weight allowance from the other runners.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arenice Et Pictons - Polamco - Sykes
2. Race: Turn Over Sivola - Little Jon - Surprise Us
3. Race: Any Given Day - Sound Investment - Uncle Jimmy
4. Race: Colour Squadron - Taquin Du Seuil - Double Ross
5. Race: Petrovic - Taggia - Our Maimie
6. Race: Abbeygrey - Milosam - Tuskar Rock
7. Race: Northandsouth - Dashing Oscar - Act Now

5 more poor meetings today

another day with mainly low grade racing at all 5 tracks. The going at Ayr is soft after the recent rain and horses drawn high possibly have an advantage. We therefore select Jumbo Steps (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) and The Nifty Fox (Tim Easterby/ James Sullivan) in the two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.10 CET and 16.40 respectively. The best race here is the 7 furlongs handicap at 18.10. Trixie Malone (Karl Burke/ Peter McDonald) is coming off a 5 months break, but shows her best form of the soft and has been first or second on her last 7 starts. She can continue that sequence, while Secret Recipe (David Nicholls/ Paddy Aspell) is the dark horse here; he won twice on heavy ground in Ireland, but has been well beaten on all his U.K. starts; he is now very nicely handicapped and a return to this going may bring about a revival in his form.
There are 3 jumps meetings., with Exeter starting off for the season with some small fields. The going is still fast there, which should suit Irish raider Landau (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire) in the novice hurdle at 17.20; As the only winner, he has to give weight away, but has by far the best form.
Most of the top N.H. jockeys are at Worcester, and AP McCoy can have another good day. El Macca at 17.00 and Highpower half an hour later are both unexposed types running in the McManus colours and look the most interesting of the champion´s 5 rides.
Ruby Walsh has won on both his mounts since returning to action last week. At Tramore he again has just one ride, Old Castletown for his father at 15.45 and can remain unbeaten in the new season.

Betting forecast Ayr:
1. Race: Battleranger - Sir Chauvelin - Woofie
2. Race: Captain Revelation - Mighty Warrior - Westhoughton
3. Race: Jumbo Steps - Spirit Of Alsace - Methaaly
4. Race: Captain Scooby - Cahal - Bearskin
5. Race: Margrets Gift - Fredricka - Red Forever
6. Race: Schmooze - Harrison`S Cave - Latin Rebel
7. Race: Trixie Malone - Alexandrakollontai - Evanescent
8. Race: Secret City - Rioja Day - Pitt Rivers

5 more poor meetings today

low level racing at all 5 fixtures today, but the good news is that the weather has now stabilised, so the going is now good, there are far fewer non-runners than in the last two days and some large fields as well. This is particularly true at the Irish meeting at Navan where 140 runners are engaged in the 8 races. The most interesting is Silver Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) in the 2 mile maiden at 15.55 CET.This 6yo is running for the first time in a proper flat race, but looks a certainty on his form in bumpers (which count as N.H. races); he won the Cheltenham bumper and was runner-up at Punchestown, two Grade One events, and as his trainer is a past master at managing such performers, we expect him to win easily enough today. The other interesting race here is the mile maiden for 2yo´s at 16.55, with runners from some of the top stables, notably 3 trained by Aidan O´Brien. His son Joseph partners debutant Giovanni Canaletto, a brother to Derby winner Ruler of the World (9th in Sunday´s Arc).
In the U.K. there is flat racing at Nottingham in the afternoon and on the all-weather at Kempton this evening. Nottingham is regarded as one of the best tracks in the country, and plenty of top trainers like to start their better 2yo´s off there. They have plenty of opportunity today, as the first 5 races are all for this age group. Having said that, our main fancies are for 2yo´s that have already run- Stoked (Ed Walker/ George Baker) at 16.20 and Rewritten (Charlie Appleby/ Ryan Moore) half an hour later.
Fields at the two N.H. meetings, Ludlow and Towcester are much smaller and also lower in quality. German-bred Sternrubin (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson),. from a top Wittekindshof family, can win the opening 3yo hurdle at 15.00 at Ludlow.

Betting forecast Navan:
1. Race: Chiclet - Beauty`s Forte - Danz Gift
2. Race: Blueberry Gal - Lily`s Prince - Sweetest Taboo
3. Race: Silver Concorde - Ruby Tuesday - Owega Star
4. Race: Gussy Goose - Diamond Bangle - Bocca Baciata
5. Race: Giovanni Canaletto - Dragon Gate - Jinsha Lake
6. Race: Nancy Rose - Sli Na Fiarana - Lonan
7. Race: Callistan - Bazaar - Solar Focus
8. Race: Ceylon - Nanamour - Corona Borealis

5 poor meetings today

the usual poor fare on a Tuesday, further complicated by the heavy rain which hit many parts yesterday. Of today´s tracks, Brighton was the worst affected, and the going will be very soft there, and of course there are lots of non-runners as a result. In general one should avoid Brighton at the best of times and after rain, even more so, but we like the look of Andrew Balding´s two runners, Stybba (Harry Bentley) at 16.50 and On Demand (Thomas Brown) an hour later. Balding continues in great form and has a good strike rate here. Balding could also finish the day on a high note by saddling Daylight (Oisin Murphy) to take the final race at kempton´s evening meeting at 21.35.

The only race above class 4 level is the mile handicap at 17.10 at Leicester, where they have not had much rain and the going is still good/ good to firm in places. Ironically we would prefer soft going for our selection there, Cordite (Mike Appleby/ Alistair Rawlinson); he ran a shocker last time, but we have not forgotten his good run in the German 2,000 Guineas. The obvious danger is top-weight Fire Ship (William Knight/ Andrea Atzeni), who has also been running well in good company. German-bred Knife Point (Hugo Palmer/ James Doyle) was just touched off last time at Newmarket and although he has been raised 4 lbs for that, can go one better here at 16.10.
Another German-bred with a chance is Cool Baranca (Dianne and Emma Sayer) in the stayers handicap at 16.30 at Catterick. Jolie Blonde (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) is a red-hot favourite here, having won easily on his seasonal debut 8 days ago; she has a 6 lbs penalty, but won with much more in hand. She could well win, but Cool Baranca, always ridden by the trainer´s daughter, has pelnty of winning form- both on the flat and over jumps- and looks a good each-way bet.
In Ireland, there is a jumps card at Tipperary. Rubyx Walsh made a winning comeback on Sunday and again has just one ride: Willie Mullins´ Morning Run in the mares maiden hurdle at 15.25. She won all three of her bumpers in good style and can remain unbeaten - and so can her jockey for this season.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Looking Good - Intimation - Star Of Seville
2. Race: Sympathy - Sea Scent - Tutti Frutti
3. Race: Desert Snow - Knife Point - Serena Grae
4. Race: Les Gar Gan - Exclusive Contract - Canary Lad
5. Race: Bold Prediction - Fire Ship - Cordite
6. Race: Tahchee - Native Falls - Birdie Queen
7. Race: New Identity - Semblance - Nathr
8. Race: Keene`s Pointe - Iggy - It`s A Yes From Me

rain today

there is quite a bit of rain forecast today for the U.K., which means that the ground may be much softer than expected. There are also bound to be some non-runners and conditions are not good for punting, so we advise punters to keep their stakes to a minimum, especially as the racing is very low quality at all 3 meetings.

The best race of the day is the conditions event over an extended 2 miles at 16.40 CET at Pontefract. Two trainers who are currently in good form each have two runners engaged, Sir Mark Prescott and David O´Meara. and we prefer Big Thunder (Luke Morris) and Repeater (Danny Tudhope) respectively, especially as they are the choice of the stable jockeys. However the one to beat is surely Statutory (Saeed bin Suroor/ Freddie Tylicki), who has been running respectably in much better company and was a very easy winner of this race last year, when trained by Mark Johnston. The same trainer can also win the mile handicap for 3yo´s half an hour earlier with Monayyaz; Ahmad al Subousi, who has partnered him to both his victories, is in the saddle again.

Vinzenz Schiergen is one of the best amateurs around; his mount in the Fegentri race at 14.50 at Windsor, Luke Dace´s Speedy Rio, has dreadful form figures and has finished last on his last four outings; however this is such a bad race that he could still run well here at a big price. We also like Christopher Wren (Nick Gifford/ Jamie Spencer) in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.50.. He is coming off a break, but won over this CD in April and also had some good form over hurdles last year. He is suited by exaggerated waiting tactics - Spencer´s speciality.

The racing at Stratford is very poor, but Decimus (Jeremy Scott/ Matt Griffiths) might be able to defy top weight in the handicap chase at 16.00. He looked very tricky when winning over fences last time, but is reasonably handicapped on his hurdles form and is one of the most unexposed runners in the field.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ventura Castle - Mythical City - Oregon Gift
2. Race: Use Your Filbert - Fingal`s Cave - Russian Heroine
3. Race: Dream Spirit - Momayyaz - Potent Embrace
4. Race: Repeater - Statutory - Alwilda
5. Race: Mr Mclaren - Rangi Chase - Pigeon Pie
6. Race: Westerly - Lucky Jim - Where`s Tiger
7. Race: Isabella Bird - Fallen In Line - Dubai Star

Group and graded races at Tipperary

Obviously flat racing takes a back seat today and all 3 U.K.meetings are over jumps. There are plenty of non-runners and some small fields as well, so that they are not so interesting for betting purposes, especially when compared to the goings-on at Longchamp. The best race is the handicap chase at 17.25 CET at Kelso; Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) is the class act here, but we feel that the handicapper has overreacted to his two good places in smart company and we doubt that her can concede so much weight to some useful rivals. Kumbeshwar (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) is having his first race for new connections, is coming off a break, but is well handicapped on his old form and is our selection.

There is much better racing in Ireland where there is both a group race on the flat and three graded races over jumps at Tipperary. Dermot Weld has bigger fish to fry today, but he can pick up the Concorde Stakes at 15.40 with Big Break (Liam Roche). Rebel Fitz (Michael Winters/ Barry Geraghty) has won 17 of his 27 starts and been runner-up 7 times; he seems equally at home over sticks and fences and recently won the flat as well and has an obvious chance in the Istabraq Hurdle at 16.50. Istabraq was of course owned by JP McManus and he has prospects of winning the novice hurdle half an hour later with either Tony Martin`s Cillians Return or Aidan O´Brien´s Draco (another trainer who will be in Paris!)

Ruby Walsh makes his comeback today after his bad fall at Cheltenham. He partners Indevan for Willie Mullins in the novice chase at 18.25 and obviously everybody will be hoping that he makes a winning return to action.

Ascot today

Ascot also stages a strong card today, headed by two group races and two listeds. There is a strong German interest in the Bengough Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.15 CET, as the large field includes Signs of Blessing (Francois Rohaut/ FX Bertras), winner of the Goldene Peitsche, and Caspar Netscher (David Simcock/ Martin Harley), winner of the German 2000 Guineas in 2012. We were impressed with the former when he won at Baden-Baden and think he must have a chance in this stronger race. The main dangers are 2013 winner Tropics (Dean Ivory/ Robert Winston), also runner-up in the July Cup, Reckless Abandon (Charlie Appleby/ Kevin Manning), Europe´s top 2yo in 2012 and now back from a fruitless period at stud, and the unbeaten Lightning Moon (Ed Walker/ George Baker), full of promise but now sharply up in grade.

There are only 5 runners in the Cumberland Lodge over 1 1/2 miles at 15.40.With Charlie Appleby now in such good form, we hope that his Encke (Paul Hanagan) can reverse earlier form with Pethers Moon (Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs) on 5 lbs better terms.

Hanagan can also take the listed 5 furlongs race that opens the card at 15.05 on William Haggas´ Muthmir, winner of the Portland Cup last time. He runs here in preference to the Abbaye tomorrow at Longchamp, and obviously this loks much easier, although last year´s winner Steps (Roger Vrian/ Andrea Atzeni) could be a problem.

The other listed race is for fillies over 7 furlongs at 17.25 and should lie between Al Thakhira (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) and Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Oisin Murphy). They flopped in the Irish and French 10900 Guineas respectively, but still have by far the best form in this company.

There is plenty more racing today and we must mention the Irish N.H. Meeting at Gowran Park, where the admirable Sizing Europe (Henry de Bromhead/ Jonathan Burke) attempts to win the PWC Champion Chase at 17.45 for the fourth time. We hope he succeeeds, although the opposition this time looks stronger than usual.

Newmarket: Sun Chariot Stakes

All eyes will be on Longchamp this weekend, and especially tomorrow´s Arc card, the richest in Europe, but in fact today´s racing in the U.K. is better than in France and the prize-money is higher too, thanks to the two immensely valuable sales races for 2yo´s which start the Newmarket card. With 168K GBP for the winner of the fillies race at 14.50 CET and 280K GBP for the colts race half an hour later- both over 7 furlongs, there will be no hanging about here and the winners will have to be serious group race performers. Our two in the fillies race are Osaila (Richard Hannon/ Frankie Dettori), already with good Group One form to her credit, and Very Special (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle), who lived up to her name when winning in modest company at Yarmouth. The colts´ race looks much trickier, but in view of the tremendous Godolphin form at present, we go for Outlaw Country (Charlie Appleby/ Pat Smullen).

Top event here is the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies over a mile at 16.30, a race in which French fillies have an excellent record. That could be maintained today, as André Fabre trains no fewer than 3 of the 7 runners: Esoterique (Pierre-Charles Boudot), Fintry (Mikael Barzalona) and Miss France (Maxime Guyon). All 3 deserve their place in the line-up and it is difficult to choose between them, but we go for the last-named, who won the 1000 Guineas over this CD in May. That race was won last year by Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) who also won this race from Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore). Most of these have met before, e.g. at Deauville where Esoterique beat Miss France, while Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer), who showed good speed to win a Doncaster Group Three last time, is also not out of it.

The Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.55 is probably easier to win that the earlier sales race, and we expect the two Godolphin runners, Local Time (bin Suroor/ Doyle) and Yodelling (Appleby/ William Buick) to be involved in the finish.

The listed race over 6 furlongs at 17.40 is also for fillies -older ones this time- and Minalisa (Rae Guest/ Fran Berry), runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, looks the likeliest winner, though Indignant (Hannon/ Buick) and Penny Drops (William Haggas/ Moore) both look dangerous.

Ascot today

The only flat racing this afternoon comes from Ascot, which has a good card for a Friday, while there is also jumping at Fontwell and Hexham, with the usual small fields, as well as all-weather racing this evening at Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland).

We shall concentrate on Ascot, which has some very competitive handicaps as well as a listed race for 3yo´s over1 3/4 miles at 16.40 CET. This looks straightforward for Marzocco (John Gosden/ William Buick), who has only ever won once - a maiden on the all-weather last October- but has been running well in top races and finished an excellent 5th in the St. Leger. This easily the best form in the race and we shall be very surprised if Big Orange (Michael Bell/ Tom Queally), who won a listed handicap at Chester last time, can give him 3 lbs. More danger in our view comes from Odeon (James Given/ Graham Lee)- behind him at York- and the much imoroved Mizzou (Luca Ciumani/ Andrea Atzeni), up in grade here.

The handicaps look very tricky, but we have unearthed two outsiders who are now very nicely handicapped on their old form and have a good CD record: Smarty Socks (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) at 15.00 and Excellent Guest (George Margarson/ Queally) half an hour later. They coulod repay an each-way interest, as could Buckland (Charlie Fellowes/ Martin Lane) in the 2-miler at 17.50.

all jumping today

all 4 meetings this afternoon in the U.K. and Ireland are N.H. cards, with the low level all-weather meeting this evening at Kempton the only flat racing of the day. Unfortunately the 3 British meetings at Warwick, Bangor and Southwell all have very small fields, with most races having 5 runners or less, so that they are not so interesting for betting purposes.

The most interesting race at Warwick, which now only stages jumps races, is the handicap hurdle at 15.40 CET, in which Laser Blazer (Alan King/ Richard Johnson) could start favourite after winning his last 2 races, most recently on Monday. However we prefer Mahican (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy), the only 4yo in the field, who was much better on the flat and may be able to confirm this over sticks. McCoy can also take the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.20 on Jonjo O´Neill´s Lost Glory; German-bred Wiesentraum (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) could be a danger here, as well as the lightly-raced bottom-weight Trafalgar (Dan and Harry Skelton).

At Bangor, Bonne Fee (Kim Bailey/ Edward Cookson) goes for her fourth successive victory in the mares novice hurdle at 17.30, but she has a massive penalty and most concede 17 lbs to the other 4 runners. She might of course be capable of this, but our instinct is always to go against such horses and we hope to get a good price on Russian Link (John Berry/ Joseph Akehurst).

At Southwell there are only 4 runners in the main event, a 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 16.35, and 3 of them are recent winners. We shall choose the other runner Abbey Storm (Donald McCain/ Noel Fehily), who is coming off a break and was totally out of form last season, but as a result is now well handicapped.

There are even some small fields at the Irish ´meeting at Clonmel. Aidan O´Brien probably has other things on his mind at present, but he can take the opening novice hurdle here with Egyptian Warrior (Robbie Power) at 15.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bjornlucky - Under The Phone - Vaihau
2. Race: Surf And Turf - Uriah Heep - Red Seventy
3. Race: Crescent Beach - Unknown Legend - Moorlands Jack
4. Race: Finding Your Feet - Iguacu - Demographic
5. Race: Lost Glory - Wiesentraum - Firm Order
6. Race: Significant Move - Novel Dancer - Mogestic
7. Race: Always Managing - Atomic Tangerine - Bronwydd

5 more poor meetings today

another day with 5 meetings, but all at a very low level. The most valuable races are at Nottingham, the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.45 CET and the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.50 have much better prize-money than is normal here, but they are only average class 3 races. Big fields and very open betting in each however and very tricky for punters; our very hesitant selections are Raze Your Gaze (Clive Cox/ Ryan Tate) in the former and Diamond Lady (William Stone/ Freddie Tylicki) in the latter event.
There is also flat racing in the U.k. this afternoon at Salisbury and Newcastle. At the former track, the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.55 has attracted quite a select field and we are interested in the lightly-raced Basem (Saeed bin Suroor/ Richard Hughes). He has won two of his 3 starts and is out of the German Group One winner Gonbarda, which makes him a half-brother to the top- class Farhh. This is a much tougher race than the ones he has contested so far, but we hope that he is up to the task.
The most interesting race at Newcastle is the 2 mile handicap at 17.40 in which Moscato (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) looks certain to start a hot favourite. he has been given a typical Prescott preparation and has won 3 of his last 4 races since being moved up in trip. He could easily score again, but he is not a good bet at his likely orice and we prefer fellow 3yo Arcamante (Karl Burke/ Danny Tudhope), who is still a maiden but has been placed several times and is certainly capable of winning off this rating.
In Ireland there is an all-chase fixture at Sligo. We like Plan A /Gordon Elliott/ Mark Walsh) in the 2 1/2 mile handicap at 17.25; he has clearly had his problems, but the stable is now in great form.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Just Us Two - Able Spirit - Kill Or Cure
2. Race: Imperial Link - Waldnah - Chapel Choir
3. Race: Hillgrove Angel - Philba - North Bay Lady
4. Race: Raise Your Gaze - Donny Rover - Excellent Puck
5. Race: Faure Island - Unforgiving Minute - Emef Diamond
6. Race: Triple Chocolate - Arctic Feeling - Amadeus Wolfe Tone
7. Race: Eternitys Gate - Dusty Storm - Only Ten Per Cent