Thursday, October 02, 2014

all jumping today

all 4 meetings this afternoon in the U.K. and Ireland are N.H. cards, with the low level all-weather meeting this evening at Kempton the only flat racing of the day. Unfortunately the 3 British meetings at Warwick, Bangor and Southwell all have very small fields, with most races having 5 runners or less, so that they are not so interesting for betting purposes.

The most interesting race at Warwick, which now only stages jumps races, is the handicap hurdle at 15.40 CET, in which Laser Blazer (Alan King/ Richard Johnson) could start favourite after winning his last 2 races, most recently on Monday. However we prefer Mahican (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy), the only 4yo in the field, who was much better on the flat and may be able to confirm this over sticks. McCoy can also take the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.20 on Jonjo O´Neill´s Lost Glory; German-bred Wiesentraum (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) could be a danger here, as well as the lightly-raced bottom-weight Trafalgar (Dan and Harry Skelton).

At Bangor, Bonne Fee (Kim Bailey/ Edward Cookson) goes for her fourth successive victory in the mares novice hurdle at 17.30, but she has a massive penalty and most concede 17 lbs to the other 4 runners. She might of course be capable of this, but our instinct is always to go against such horses and we hope to get a good price on Russian Link (John Berry/ Joseph Akehurst).

At Southwell there are only 4 runners in the main event, a 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 16.35, and 3 of them are recent winners. We shall choose the other runner Abbey Storm (Donald McCain/ Noel Fehily), who is coming off a break and was totally out of form last season, but as a result is now well handicapped.

There are even some small fields at the Irish ´meeting at Clonmel. Aidan O´Brien probably has other things on his mind at present, but he can take the opening novice hurdle here with Egyptian Warrior (Robbie Power) at 15.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bjornlucky - Under The Phone - Vaihau
2. Race: Surf And Turf - Uriah Heep - Red Seventy
3. Race: Crescent Beach - Unknown Legend - Moorlands Jack
4. Race: Finding Your Feet - Iguacu - Demographic
5. Race: Lost Glory - Wiesentraum - Firm Order
6. Race: Significant Move - Novel Dancer - Mogestic
7. Race: Always Managing - Atomic Tangerine - Bronwydd