Friday, October 17, 2014

Future Champions Day at Newmarket

some excellent racing today and pride of place goes clearly to Newmarket and their so_called Future Champions Day, with 6 Group races, 3 of them Group One - and all the Group Ones as well as a Group Three are reserved for 2yo´s. Whether this is a good idea remains to be seen, but it is the result of the rearrangement of the autumn programme with the British Champions Day tomorrow at Ascot.
The Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.00 CET is traditionally the best U.K. race for juveniles and has been dominated in recent years by Irish runners, who have taken 7 of ther last 8 runnings. Jim Bolger has no runner today but Aidan O´Brien saddles the highly interesting dark horse Smugglers Cove (Joseph), moving up sharply in grade after winning a listed at Dundalk last week. On ratings he has little chance, but he could certainly win here, as O´Brien has enough smart 2yo´s in the yard to know where they all stand. The one he has to beat is certainly Estidhkaar (Richard Hannon(/ Paul hanagan), who has won his last 3 starts - two of them in Group Twos - in excellent style.
The Filles Mile at 16.25 -previoiusly run at Ascot- is another top race with Hannon and O´Brien again in Opposition, biut we think it could be between two other Irish runners, Agnes Stewart (Eddie Lynam/ Billy Lee), who won the May Hill at Doncaster, the logical trial for this, and Lucida (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), one of 3 runners in Godolphin colours.
Hannon has another good chance in the Middle Park over 6 furlongs at 15.55, where the unbeaten Ivawood (Richard Hughes) is clearly preferred to Kool Kompany (Ryan Moore). Ivawood is obviously one of the best 2yo´s in Europe, but has never run on soft ground before, so we would be cutious about taking prices at odds-on. The O´Brien´s run The Warrior here, but it requires quite a feat of Imagination to see him winning this, but the other Irish runner Cappella Sansevero (Ger Lyons/ Andrea Atzeni) has won 4 races already and was runner-up in the Coventry; he has solid form and is a definite alternative to the favourite.
The other 2yo group race is the Cornwallis Stakes over 5 furlongs at 15.25, which is much lower in standard but still looks tricky. Moonraker (Mick Channon/ Hughes) and Strath Burn (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) both flopped last time but still have the best form here and one of them will probably win.
From the German point of view the Group Two Challenge Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.35 could be the most interesting race of the day. There are two German-trained runners Amarillo (Peter and Dennis Schiergen) and Mogadishio (Sascha Smcrzek/ Freddie Tylicki), of whom the former - runner up here last year- has much the better chance. Here Comes When (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley) won in good style at Baden-Baden, while Cape Factor (Rae Guest/ Chris Catlin) was runner-up in a listed race there. French challenger Thawaaany (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) runs in the owner´s second colours, but must also have a good chance judging by his second place at Deauville, but the one to beat is probably super-consistent Breton Rock (David Simcock( Martin Lane), who loves this ground and never runs a bad race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Majestic Manner - Pulcinella - Mystic Jade
2. Race: Strath Burn - Squats - Moonraker
3. Race: Muhaarar - Cappella Sansevero - Kool Kompany
4. Race: Lucida - Marsh Hawk - Agnes Stewart
5. Race: Smuggler`s Cove - Maftool - Kodi Bear
6. Race: Thawaany - Breton Rock - Al Thakhira
7. Race: Grandeur - Mutakayyef - Fencing