Champions Day at Ascot

we had excellent racing at Newmarket yesterday but today´s Ascot card is even better. Whether it can compete with Longchamp´s Arc day or the Breeders Cup is open to debate, but this is still one of the best cards anywhere in the world this year. Of course the fact that some stars are missing - Kingman, Australia, Kingston Hill et al - means that the cast is not quite as sparkling as had been hoped, and although the heavy ground is an extra negative factor, but this should not detract from a wonderful day´s racing.
We shall start in chronological order with the Long Distance Cup over 2 miles at 14.45 CET, where the field includes the last two winners of the Gold Cup, Leading Light (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and the Queen´s Estimate, but in both cases we are worried about the ground. Dermot Weld is always the man to follow in such events and in 2012 he saddled Rite of Passage to win after a break of 17 months;now he runs Forgotten Rules (Pat Smullen), who won a bumper in April and then a minor conditions race at Galway - his only two races so far. In theory of course that form cannot be good enough, but Weld rates this one highly and we think he can pull it off. Biographer (David Lanigan/ George Baker), who loves this ground, is our outsider tip for each-way bettors.
Next is the Champion Sprint over 6 furlongs at 15.20. Most of these have met before woith varying results, so we shall stick to the mudlovers and in particular the three Irish hopes Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Wayne Lordan), Maarek (Evanna McCutcheon/ Jamie Spencer) and Viztoria (Eddie Lynam/ Smullen).Maarek won this in 2012 and could be a decent price today, with last year´s runner-up Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) is another for the short list.
The Fillies and Mares race over 1 1/2 miles comes next at 15.55 and 2013 winner Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ Baker) tries again, but she is held on her latest running by Silk Sari (Liuca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni). The field also includes two fillies that were placed in the Prix de l´Opera - Tasaday (Saeed bin Suroor/ Richard Hughes), 2nd last year, and Hadaatha (Roger Varian / Paul Hanagan) a close third this year. However we aso like Cubanita (Ralph Beckett/ Ryan Moore), one of the few who is certain to like the heavy ground and to stay the trip.
The field for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile at 16.30 includes three 3yo´s who all ran in the 2,000 Guineas - the 40-1 winner Night of Thunder (Richard Hannon/ Hughes), Charm Spirit (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier), who finished fifth and has since reversed the form with the winner, and Toormore (Hannon/ Kieren Fallon), who was actually the stable´s main hope but finished 7th. Top Notch Tonto (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) and Kingsbarns (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) finished 2/3 last year and should be in the shake-up again on going that they clearly need. Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) has won his last 5 races and is still improving, while the consistent Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) is proven at this level and a danger to all.
Our preview of the Champion Stakes at 17.05 follows in a few minutes, while the final race is a 27-runner mile handicap worth 155,000 GBP to the winner, a real puzzle. Taking the ground and the draw into account (we think high numbers will be favoured, but it is not certain!) we shall take three against the field -Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Robert Winston), Gabrial´s Kaka (Richard Fahey/ Spencer) and Russian Realm (Stoute/ Moore) but basically anything is possible here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Leading Light - Forgotten Rules - Estimate
2. Race: G Force - Gordon Lord Byron - Jack Dexter
3. Race: Silk Sari - Hadaatha - Chicquita
4. Race: Charm Spirit - Night Of Thunder - Integral
5. Race: Cirrus des Aigles - Free Eagle - Noble Mission
6. Race: Chatez - Cornrow - Levitate