Tuesday, October 07, 2014

5 poor meetings today

the usual poor fare on a Tuesday, further complicated by the heavy rain which hit many parts yesterday. Of today´s tracks, Brighton was the worst affected, and the going will be very soft there, and of course there are lots of non-runners as a result. In general one should avoid Brighton at the best of times and after rain, even more so, but we like the look of Andrew Balding´s two runners, Stybba (Harry Bentley) at 16.50 and On Demand (Thomas Brown) an hour later. Balding continues in great form and has a good strike rate here. Balding could also finish the day on a high note by saddling Daylight (Oisin Murphy) to take the final race at kempton´s evening meeting at 21.35.

The only race above class 4 level is the mile handicap at 17.10 at Leicester, where they have not had much rain and the going is still good/ good to firm in places. Ironically we would prefer soft going for our selection there, Cordite (Mike Appleby/ Alistair Rawlinson); he ran a shocker last time, but we have not forgotten his good run in the German 2,000 Guineas. The obvious danger is top-weight Fire Ship (William Knight/ Andrea Atzeni), who has also been running well in good company. German-bred Knife Point (Hugo Palmer/ James Doyle) was just touched off last time at Newmarket and although he has been raised 4 lbs for that, can go one better here at 16.10.
Another German-bred with a chance is Cool Baranca (Dianne and Emma Sayer) in the stayers handicap at 16.30 at Catterick. Jolie Blonde (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) is a red-hot favourite here, having won easily on his seasonal debut 8 days ago; she has a 6 lbs penalty, but won with much more in hand. She could well win, but Cool Baranca, always ridden by the trainer´s daughter, has pelnty of winning form- both on the flat and over jumps- and looks a good each-way bet.
In Ireland, there is a jumps card at Tipperary. Rubyx Walsh made a winning comeback on Sunday and again has just one ride: Willie Mullins´ Morning Run in the mares maiden hurdle at 15.25. She won all three of her bumpers in good style and can remain unbeaten - and so can her jockey for this season.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Looking Good - Intimation - Star Of Seville
2. Race: Sympathy - Sea Scent - Tutti Frutti
3. Race: Desert Snow - Knife Point - Serena Grae
4. Race: Les Gar Gan - Exclusive Contract - Canary Lad
5. Race: Bold Prediction - Fire Ship - Cordite
6. Race: Tahchee - Native Falls - Birdie Queen
7. Race: New Identity - Semblance - Nathr
8. Race: Keene`s Pointe - Iggy - It`s A Yes From Me