Friday, October 24, 2014

back to the flat

it´s back to flat racing today with decent cards at Newbury and Doncaster. In both cases the first 4 races are for 2yo´s and there could well be some smart future performers running, but there is very litle form to go on and for betting purposes they should be watched, but not punted on. The handicaps that follow are more interesting and we especially like Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) in the 6 furlongs race at Doncaster at 16.30 CET. He has not won since taking Munich´s Silberne Peitsche 17 months ago, but the form of that race was strong in the context of today´s race and he is now very nicely handicapped. The following 1 3/4 mile handicap at 17.05 also has a large field and looks wide open. Zipp (Ralph Beckett/ Sean Levey) was the favourite for this last year, but was just touched off; he comes on the short list again, but Godolphin´s Moontime (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) and also Norway Cross /(Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) are also dangerous, although both are up in trip. Proven at the distance is Spectator (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who is a full brother to tomorrow´s Cox Plate runner Side Glance and perhaps he can kick off a great weekend for connections.
With Charlie Appleby now in top form, we also like Dream Child (Silvestre de Sousa) in the 16.55 at Newbury; top-weight Dame Lucy (Mick Appleby - no relation/ Oisin Murphy) is one of several dangers. German-bred Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Ron Hornby) might run into a place in the apprentice race at 18.30; the Monsun gelding has been a huge disappointment, but is coming off a break and this is a very weak race.
There is a listed race over 5 furlongs at 21.10 at the Irish all-weather meeting at Dundalk. Sir Maximilian (Ian Williams/ Steve Donohoe) has some good form at this distance and was not beaten far when 7th of 18 in the Abbaye last time. If he can repeat that form, he must go close here.

Betting forecast Dundalk:
1. Race: Adeste Fideles - Sirikoi - Taaluf
2. Race: The Dancing Lord - Merry Mast - Happy Anniversary
3. Race: Art Scene - Bold Henmie - Hazel Blue
4. Race: Bubbly Bellini - Strait Of Zanzibar - Trinity Force
5. Race: No Way Jack - Miss Temple - Enter The Priory
6. Race: Sir Maximilian - Russian Soul - Abstraction
7. Race: Tigris River - Whitey O` Gwaun - Captain Teemo
8. Race: Fanzine - Comedy Club - Elusive Laurence