5 poor meetings today

This is the time of year when the big stables bring out their hopes for next season´s big 3yo races, and the form of these races can often be misleading. At Newmarket today the first 7 races are all for 2yo´s and the maiden races - with runners from some top addresses- have large fields, but without knowing which horses are really top fit, these are not good betting events. The two better races have very small fields and are therefore equally unattractive. From the betting point of view, the last race, a fillies handicap over a mile at 18.25 CET, is the most interesting event and here we expect the top-weights to dominate, with the lightly-raced Tempress (Roger Charlton/ George Baker) our selection; she has not run for 3 months, but looked very progressive then and the stable is in good form. There is also flat racing in Ireland, with maximum fields on most of the 8 races at Navan, and the same arguments apply.

Over jumps, two German-breds catch the eye - Lysino (Dr. Newland/ Noel Fehily) in the handicap chase at 15.50 at Worcester and Ordensritter (Chris Down/ Giles Hawkins) in the handicap hurdle at 17.45 at Fontwell. The former, a half-brother to German Derby winner Lucky Speed, is very consistent but keeps on going up in the weights for finishing second, so is no good thing today, although we certainly expect him to run well on a course that should suit. Ordensritter is more interesting; he has not been placed in 5 runs over hurdles in the U.K., and is in fact running for the first time over jumps for 19 months, but he has run some decent races on the flat in the meantime and is now well handicapped, so he could well spring a surprise at a nice price. He also has a good pedigree, being a half-brother by Samum to German Derby third Open Your Heart.