Tuesday, October 21, 2014

autumn in the air

autumn is very much in the air today with high winds and heavy showers and the cards also look very autumnal, with 3 meetings on the all-weather and one over jumps. Exeter´s N.H. card is the most interesting of the day, with most of the leading trainers from that part of the country involved, and Paul Nicholls in particular is sending a strong team. He has fancied runners in the first 3 races, with Howlongisafoot, partnered by daughter Megan, at 15.10 CET, and Alcala at 15.40 and Far West half an hour later both ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies. All 3 have chances, but the stable has not really hit top form yet and we would not want to be taking a short price about any of them, as there is plenty of opposition. Looking for a bit of each-way value, we like Tullamore Dew (Nick Gifford/ Tom Cannon) in the handicap chase at 16.40 and Look for Love (Sue and Lucy Gardner) in the handicap hurdle half an hour later. Neither has won for a while, but they are now both well handicapped as a result; Tullamore Dew was runner-up over this CD last January to the subsequent Grand National winner and a repeat of that form certainly gives him a chance, with the Gardners are always to be feared at their local course.
The new tapeta track at Wolverhampton has been well received and the fields today are quite big, although it is certainly more quantity than quality. Ex-German All The Winds (Sam Lycett/ Ciaran McKee) is no star, but this is his level and as he has often run well here we give him an an each-way chance in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.50.
Potentially the best horse running today is the Godolphin filly Yodelling (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), who runs in the conditions race for 2yo´s at 20.00 at Kempton; she won so easily on her debut here that it is hard to see her getting beaten this evening, but she will not be at a working man´s price.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Nephew - The Tourard Man - Fred Le Macon
2. Race: Alcala - Hello George - The Geegeez Geegee
3. Race: Far West - Puffin Billy - Dunraven Storm
4. Race: Houston Dynimo - Strumble Head - Perfect Candidate
5. Race: Bajan Blu - Go West Young Man - Worthy Award
6. Race: Jewellery - Midnight Lira - Moorlands Jack
7. Race: Kalifourchon - Miss Minx - Restraint